California Issues 1 week alert for San Andreas fault

[Bob]

293 seismic events have currently hit the San Andreas fault.

CalOES issued an Earthquake Advisory on 29 September 2016

According to the USGS, “Preliminary calculations indicate that, as of 10:00 am (PDT) Sept. 27, 2016, there is a 0.03% – 1% chance (1 in 3000 to 1 in 100) of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake being triggered on the Southern San Andreas fault within the next seven days through October 4, with the likelihood decreasing over time. This probability range is estimated using several models developed in California to assess foreshock/aftershock probabilities.”

The calculation was made by seismologists at the USGS at its Menlo Park, CA, Pasadena, CA, and Golden, CO, centers, for the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, of which USGS seismologist Morgan Page is a member.

The calculation is based on the most recent time-dependent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast model (UCERF3), combined with the most current concepts of the likelihood that an aftershock of the M=4.3 could be larger than its mainshock.

This is called an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence, or ETAS, (developed by the great Japanese seismologist-statistican, Yosihiko Ogata).


http://cc.amazingcounters.com/counter.php?i=3190880&c=9572953

http://temblor.net/earthquake-insights/continuing-m4-3-bombay-beach-swarm-triggers-earthquake-advisory-for-the-san-andreas-fault-1528/


http://static.temblor.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/SAN_ANDREAS_FAULT_EARTHQUAKE_MAP.jpg

[Spellbound]

The Drudge Report linked this story earlier today as well...

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-swarm-20160930-snap-story.html

Perhaps Simon Parkes, George Green, and Sean David Morton were correct in predicting a larger west coast earthquake before November (if I'm not mistaken, they said it would be man-made and controlled, though I could be wrong about this, but that was my understanding). Personally, while predictions are interesting, I don't put much stock in them...though time will tell.

Dave - Toronto

[Orph]

In other words, there's a 99.0% - 99.7% chance that nothing will happen within the next week. :blink:

[boja]

That 0.03 -1.0 % Chance is still a BIG RISK

for all of the unfortunate people concerned, in my humble opinion.

I can only offer them my best wishes.

[greybeard]

Hopefully nothing will happen.
Hardly a month goes bye as far as I can recall without some physic, whistle blower, insider, saying much the same.

You are more likely to be killed driving a car.
Death is a fact of life so is the new born.
When you know you are not the body a lot of fear goes,
--however no one wishes disaster on anyone---survivors who have lost loved ones go through hell.

chris

[Bob]

That 0.03 -1.0 % Chance is still a BIG RISK

for all of the unfortunate people concerned in my humble opinion.

I can only offer them my best wishes.

California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council issued the report in conjunction with USGS. I just don't think they issue reports frivolously.. 239 'aftershocks' for the Sept 26th quake right on the south flank of the San Andreas and into the Brawley Seismic zone (see the OP post 1 image) is high in one day before they issued the alert. The 26 Sept. was a recorded 4.3 magnitude quake.

I agree with Boja, 1% or even 0.03 is still a GUESS. What they have showing up is a lot of earthquake swarms at a junction of the San Andreas and the Brawley Seismic zone. Since California gets numerous quakes, and they don't issue an alert, this is different..

References - "The Brawley Seismic Zone (BSZ), also known as the Brawley fault zone, is a predominantly extensional tectonic zone that connects the southern terminus of the San Andreas Fault with the Imperial Fault in Southern California". It also is a contact point for the Baja Peninsula and the East Pacific Rise. It's also tied into volcanic and geothermal activity. When the area "cracks", rifts open up, as far as the Mexico/California border such as in 1979. A lot of swarm activity happens on the BSZ, not small but larger 5+, close to a 5.8 magnitude.

Summarizing, activity is happening somewhere along the plates, and is focalizing in that area apparently and that is enough it seems to have called the alert.

[Sunny-side-up]

Hmm! bad place to build so much habit.
May all activity there will be small events and so release gently.

When I looked at the map my mind showed me the 'Salton Sea' disrepair as if down a big hole? Hope that wouldn't cause extra event problems in that area?

[greybeard]

Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton Sea

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-swarm-20160930-snap-story.html

More on the link--brief part here.
Chris


The rumbling started Monday morning deep under the Salton Sea. A rapid succession of small earthquakes — three measuring above magnitude 4.0 — began rupturing near Bombay Beach, continuing for more than 24 hours. Before the swarm started to fade, more than 200 earthquakes had been recorded.

The temblors were not felt over a very large area, but they have garnered intense interest — and concern — among seismologists. It marked only the third time since earthquake sensors were installed there in 1932 that the area had seen such a swarm, and this one had more earthquakes than the events of 2001 and 2009.

The quakes occurred in one of California’s most seismically complex areas. They hit in a seismic zone just south of where the mighty San Andreas fault ends. It is composed of a web of faults that scientists fear could one day wake up the nearby San Andreas from its long slumber.


Various items regarding this and other earthquakes on this link
https://www.earthquakestoday.info/

[wnlight]

We send you in California our best wishes from another land of earthquakes - Ecuador.

[Cidersomerset]

Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton Sea

By David on 2 October 2016 GMT Planetary change

THE LOS ANGELES TIMES...

https://www.davidicke.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/la-1475209046-snap-photo.jpg
A view of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain. A valley is deeply eroded along the fault. (U.S. Geological Survey)
By Rong-Gong Lin II

October 1, 2016, 5:00 PM

‘The rumbling started Monday morning deep under the Salton Sea. A rapid succession of
small earthquakes — three measuring above magnitude 4.0 — began rupturing near
Bombay Beach, continuing for more than 24 hours. Before the swarm started to fade,
more than 200 earthquakes had been recorded.

The temblors were not felt over a very large area, but they have garnered intense interest
— and concern — among seismologists. It marked only the third time since earthquake
sensors were installed there in 1932 that the area had seen such a swarm, and this one
had more earthquakes than the events of 2001 and 2009.’

Read more: Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton Sea

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-swarm-20160930-snap-story.html

[Cidersomerset]

A couple articles as I'm looking thru David Ickes headline page one possibly
related article and the other a demonstration of natures power....



New Study Blames Fracking For Spike In Oklahoma Earthquakes

By David on 2 October 2016 GMT Corporate Crime Planetary change

https://www.davidicke.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Untitled-20-587x323.jpg


http://www.naturalblaze.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NBlogo1.jpg

New Study Blames Fracking For Spike In Oklahoma Earthquakes
Posted on October 1, 2016

http://www.naturalblaze.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/frackingwell.jpg
By Whitney Webb

‘For years, scientists and other have speculated that the spike in earthquakes in Oklahoma was
linked to natural gas extraction via the controversial method of hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulic
fracturing, more commonly known as “fracking”, is hugely controversial due to its permanent
destruction of groundwater and drinking water as well as its use of cancerous chemicals that
often leak into rivers and streams. Yet, it seems that an increase in earthquakes is also another
unpleasant side effect of fracking.

From 1975 to 2008, the US Geological Survey measured, on average, 1 to 3 earthquakes annually
in Oklahoma. Once the current fracking boom began in 2009, that number spiked to an average
40 earthquakes annually from 2009 to 2013 and they’ve been worsening since. In 2014, Oklahoma
experienced over 580 earthquakes of 3.0 magnitude or greater. Thankfully, a new study has put
any doubt to rest, once and for all proving that this dangerous spike in earthquakes is a direct
result of widespread fracking.’


http://www.naturalblaze.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/oklahomaearthquakes-768x577.png
Cumulative number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or larger in the central and eastern
United States, 1970–2016. The long-term rate of approximately 29 earthquakes per year increased
sharply starting around 2009. Credit – USGS

Read more: New Study Blames Fracking For Spike In Oklahoma Earthquakes

http://www.naturalblaze.com/2016/10/new-study-blames-fracking-for-spike-in-oklahoma-earthquakes.html

===============================================


Stunning timelapse: Colima volcano erupts in Mexico

By David on 2 October 2016 GMT

Iti7AJ5mv4Y


Published on 1 Oct 2016
Notorious Colima volcano, one of most active in the world, erupts in Mexico, prompting evacuation

[Bob]

frac'ing has NOTHING to do with this thread Cider.. This thread talks about instability happening under the Salton Sea. There is no frac'ing coming from Oklahoma messing with the San Andreas (in California) or the fault zone that connects to it, leading down to Mexico (through California), -- good thought but there are no injection wells at the location of the earthquake or focal point..

INJECTION WELLS are responsible for numerous earthquakes in Oklahoma.

There are now numerous very good detailed report threads documenting INJECTION WELLS which are putting continual PRESSURE deep underground in zones which can absorb ASSOCIATED WATER (and waste water from frac'ing operations)..

Injection wells should be paid attention to.. There aren't any where the earthquake was noted..

Injection wells are VERY different than frac'ing an oil or gas well.. Specifics are needed, not party line stuff.. Just to give the best information..

Frac'ing has nothing to do with it..

[Rocky_Shorz]

Felt that one here, my psychic self is still feeling movement

[Rocky_Shorz]

According to Sorchas Russian subs are off both coasts, one coast getting hammered by hurricane the other earthquakes...


The nuclear agreement between US and Russia is over, so why wouldn't weather modification and quake weapons be also?


Both follow the threats issued by one of America's biggest warmongers, saying ready to destroy Russia to remove Putin from power