Economic Outlook for 2017: debt deflation, supply shortages, currency inflation, bank failures, repossession

[ThePythonicCow]

.
Right now, seven weeks before the end of 2016, the economic outlook for 2017 looks quite clear to me. I'll express it from the perspective of the US, but it's a world-wide phenomenon that will involve most of humanity, one way or another.

This sort of thing happens about every 80 years or so, and whenever the dominant monetary system is debt-money based, its general shape is quite predictable.

First and foremost, debt issuance collapses. A substantial portion of the bank issued debt to individuals, businesses, and governments will cease being issued, and in many cases, outstanding loans will be "called" ("pay us now, or we repossess or privatize or foreclose the home, car, inventory, land, or whatever collateral you had offered to get the loan.")

I foresee cash shortages, failing banks, credit card cancelations, and missed payroll, pension, and benefit payments.

If you're depending on newly issued debt for some of the necessities of life; if your employer is depending on borrowing money to stay in business (and pay you); if your government is depending on more debt to issue a welfare, social security or medical benefit; ... you've got a problem. In the case of the government, if it's a nation-state that can print its own currency, you might get the same dollar-amount paid, but it won't buy very much. Otherwise, the payments and payroll risk not being there at all.

In particular, this time around, in the US, this will cause a massive supply chain shock. Most of what we consume, and most of the manufacturing, transportation, and distribution channels that get that stuff to us, are debt financed. This is called "just-in-time" delivery, with only a few days worth of consumables in the supply chain, on trucks and trains and ships and in warehouses.

As soon as the banking system stops lending to all those involved, the supply chain breaks down. The lack of a robust way, not involving debt financing, to fund many supply chain transactions is actually a bigger problem than the lack of much stock in warehouses.

I foresee lots of empty store shelves.

The combination of (1) cash and credit shortages, (2) supply shortages, and (3) desperate nations printing money will mean: You won't have the cash or credit to buy stuff,
the stuff won't be there to buy anyway, and
if you could find it and pay for it, it willl cost a lot more.
This is how "we" do the ancient tradition of "debt jubilees" in modern times. Debt collapses, loans are recalled, collateral is repossessed, and debt-money fueled economies collapse. This allows the lending banks to recapitalize, on the back of the property, resources, and income streams that they confiscated from their customers that they drove into bankruptcy or austerity or debt-slavery in the collapse that they caused, of the previous debt bubble that they created. It' s a nice business, if you can get it (and if you're morally deficient.)

Welcome to 2017 (and a few years beyond - this big a mess doesn't get cleaned up in just one year.)

If you're one of those who enjoys listening to Clif High, you can listen to him tell you this, in his own typical fashion:
8sSBCTGbMHw

[Spellbound]

Oh, it's coming. There must be a market correction at some point in the near future because the economy has been artificially propped up for awhile now. Things could become as bad as, or worse, than '08/'09.

Dave - Toronto

[ThePythonicCow]

Oh, it's coming. There must be a market correction at some point in the near future because the economy has been artificially propped up for awhile now. Things could become as bad as, or worse, than '08/'09.

Dave - Toronto
The stock market (if that's what you mean by "market") might actually go up, if there is enough currency inflation (aka "money printing"). The dollar value of major stocks might go up dramatically (if the real value of dollars shrinks sufficiently.)

The previous US market crashes in recent decades were occasions to build the tower of dollar debt higher and higher, as banks bailed out funds (LTCM (https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240), 1998), mortgage lending funded the recovery from the tech stock crash (dot-com bubble (http://www.wisestockbuyer.com/a-guide-to-the-2001-tech-crash/), 2001), and the Fed bailed out the big banks and the mortgage backed security market (2008).

This next crash is of a different nature and scope. The US Reserve Dollar is the basis of the world monetary system. It collapses. The Federal Reserve goes from being (covertly) the world's lender of last resort (essentially a key agent of the existing world monetary system, not just the private banking cartel lending to the US Treasury), to being just another national bank in a new multi-polar political and multi-currency monetary global system.

Much US Dollar denominated debt will fail. Many banks, large and small, will fail. Much of the global economy, from mining and farming and manufacturing, to retail sales, half a world away, depends on US Dollar denominated debt to be funded. Much of that global economy will fail, in varying degrees, in chaotic and unpredictable fashions.

Debt deflation is the fundamental mechanism for resetting a debt-money system. When the level of debt builds up to such a level that it kills the economic activity that funds debt payments, then much of the debt dies (existing debt is foreclosed and new debt is not issued.)

This happens about every 80 years.

[flying_kiwi]

Interesting thread and thanks for sharing the Cliff High video. I agree with your outlook for 2017.

What are people's views on the best way to prepare for this? Personally I am:
- stocking up on food, water, wood, gas
- holding cash out of the bank
- holding physical gold and silver and gold/silver shares
- paying down debt
- thinking about how best we can get the hell out dodge if it hits the fan

[ThePythonicCow]

The way that these major debt-money resets begin is that the banks cut back on lending new money into circulation, and start repossessing the collateral of existing debts.

A couple of days ago, Wolf Richter posted this on his WolfStreet.com website: What the Heck’s going on with Foreclosures? Why this Spike? -- Foreclosures suddenly spike most since the last Housing Bust (http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/10/whats-going-on-with-foreclosures-spike-fha-va-mortgages/). He has the details at the link.

[RunningDeer]

Clif High-DOW & Gold $125,000-Hyperinflation Coming
VoBRckWwN4g


Published on Nov 12, 2016

On gold and silver, Internet data mining expert Clif High says never mind the recent price drop. High says, “They’re real money, always have been, and you are going to need it. . . . How can it be silly to hold real money? Americans are going to have to face up to the fact that we have been deluded by a propaganda press that was attempting to sow a particular viewpoint around the world. We tried to conquer the world with dollars and the threat of bullets . . . . Our dollars were accepted all around the world, and people gave us real stuff for those green pieces of paper. They’re not going to do that anymore. So, if you want that coconut from Malaysia . . . you are going to have to pay something that has value. Those little green pieces of paper will not after a short period of time. They are going to have value inside the country for a while, but outside the country, people are going to say I want gold or silver or oil. I want to see something of value.”

High can’t name a price for gold and silver, but his “predictive linguistics” says, “At some point in 2017, probably past mid-year, we’re going to be looking at hyperinflation so bad that the DOW will be measured around $100,000 to $125,000. Meaning, the dollar will be so worthless that it will take $125,000 to buy the little basket that is the DOW. I also have language that says an ounce of gold will be approaching the DOW in terms of value. This is not ludicrous. In the last depression in 1933 and 1934, after the shutting of the banks . . . we had a point where gold and the DOW were the same, and gold dominated the DOW for decades.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Internet predictive linguistics expert Clif High of HalfPastHuman.com.

[ThePythonicCow]

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Internet predictive linguistics expert Clif High of HalfPastHuman.com.
That's a good interview.

Near the end, Clif says "The Dollar is going away", and Greg says "We can't afford the illusion." Good summary lines. Sounds about right to me.

[mgray]

I enjoy Clif High, but I wondered why his predictive language program, could not pick up the Trump victory?

If a Trump Administration can jump start the US economy to get to 3.5% annualized GDP growth, we could see interest rates rise. The US bond market sees this as the 10-year note has moved above 2.1% yield on the back of the election.

As far as any monetary changes with the US dollar is a move that is several standard deviations from the norm, so I do not worry about the event happening.

I understand this view doesn't make for a compelling video that anyone would watch and if your livelihood depends on getting viewers then you need to scream about the latest pending doom.

[ThePythonicCow]

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Internet predictive linguistics expert Clif High of HalfPastHuman.com.

That's a good interview.
Greg Hunter has a full write-up of his interview with Clif High, on Greg's page http://usawatchdog.com/federal-reserve-clintons-doomed-clif-high/, for those who prefer to read.

==

On thinking about what Clif is saying here, which echoes what several other prognosticators say that I follow closely, there is a fundamental difference between what Clif is saying and what I'm saying in this thread and other recent comments.

But the difference might not be obvious at first glance.

Clif, and others, are anticipating a major setback for the globalist, empire building elements, which includes the prosecution of the Bush/Clinton/Neocon crime syndicate and which includes the death of the debt-money (the British Pound in the 1800's, then the US Dollar in the 1900's until now) that they "rode in on."

I am anticipating that portions of these globalist, empire building elements, will be thrown "under the bus" (such as in particular the Bush/Clinton/Neocon crime syndicate and their closely allied drug runners,, arms merchants, and main stream propagandists, as well as the US Dollar based world reserve currency monetary system), but I am also anticipating that other, more deeply entrenched and powerful elements will metastisize into a multi-polar political and multi-currency monetary world order.

Whereas Clif, and others, are expecting the monetary system to revert to what they think was a more honest and stable system based on gold, such as we saw in the 1800's (but which I consider to have been primarily a debt-money system, even then), I am expecting that gold will be just one element, along with the national currencies of a few major nations, in the "basket" of currencies that form the new multi-currency monetary world order. I am expecting a "price fix", setting the "price" of each major currency or metal in this basket, to be a key element of this new monetary world order, with that fix covertly controlled by the most powerful on this planet.

I am expecting the most powerful, and their debt-money system, and rebuilt nation-states cooperating in support of these most powerful, to rise like Phoenix from the ashes of the collapse of the current hegemony, in a new multi-polar, multi-currency, world order.

===

Neither Clif nor I have all that great a track record of such long term predictions ... so likely reality will take "a third way." :).

[ThePythonicCow]

As far as any monetary changes with the US dollar is a move that is several standard deviations from the norm, so I do not worry about the event happening.
Yes, indeed, the demise of the US Dollar world reserve currency system would be, if it happened, one really big black swan event :).

[Czarek]

I enjoy Clif High, but I wondered why his predictive language program, could not pick up the Trump victory?

.

He did peg it right saying that Trump would take majority and correctly predicting riots right after election. Greg Hunter had him just before election.

[mountain_jim]

I for one appreciate the contributors to this sub-forum and am glad to see activity here again after a dry period.

[RunningDeer]

That's a good interview.

Near the end, Clif says "The Dollar is going away", and Greg says "We can't afford the illusion." Good summary lines. Sounds about right to me.

Yes, fascinating and informative videos. A wide range of topics covered. I listened a couple of times and downloaded them. Priceless reminder of how they brainwash and manipulate with entrainment technology through public media and with cell phones that pump out carrier signals. Knowledge is power. Pay attention. Dispel fear. Discern. Rid self of the programs.

I posted November 19th on my calendar on how things will calm down with the levels of paranoia and fear. It explained why the fema camp meme recently popped up on the forum and other emotional themes and exchanges spread across blogs, forums and the YouTube comments.

Fingers crossed that once the entrainment technology is gone, people will come to their senses with this freakish range of pubescent behaviors and the terrible twos like tantrums. It’s a wake up call to not wait for the masses to see with new eyes, after watching the destruction, the postponed exams, and the time out in safe places and cuddle animals to quell anxiety. WTF?

Full disclosure, after watching the videos, I redirected feelings of concern, by purchasing more dry goods, Himalayan and Celtic salts, spices, etc. before a loaf of bread costs a wheel barrel of worthless dollars and is still available. It’s a good time to repost the site below. I use it mostly for the vegetables and go elsewhere for other dry goods and vacuum pack them for long term freshness.

Repost:

ThriveLife.com (http://www.thrivelife.com/shop) is a good place to check out for emergency preparedness. Most are certified gluten-free, NO GMOs: no bioengineered ingredients, NO artificial colors or flavors.

I've purchased the fruits, vegetables, and grains which have a shelf life of 25 years and best used within one year of opening to maintain life sustaining nutritional value. I continue to purchase the vegetables and crossed off the fruits from my repurchase list.

Too, it’s cost effective if you live in seasonal areas where the price fluctuates, or inclement weather, or time constraints with work and home.

The customer ratings/reviews are pretty accurate. The site is informative and user friendly. :thumb:


Kingsman - Church Fight - (i.e. cell phone entrainment)
25683IE5v9g

[RunningDeer]

Interesting listen and comparison from the data set in the October report.

Few bullet points of the first seven minutes. Note, I left a lot out because it’s a dense report:


Electoral confusion, not votes
Trump wins by a landslide relative to recent elections, but it won’t make a difference. We’ll go into a mass state of confusion.
Confusion is the dominating descriptor in the post election time frame
Next layer down is post election where Hilary is missing, debt bubble bursts, foreign repatriation of dollars and fractured politics, the deep state is active, the shadow government is active and again Trump wins and a state of mass confusion.
Debt bubble bursting rises due to active, dynamic events and not as a result as a long term completion cycle. It’s not unexpected because we’ve been expecting it. But on the day that it happens it will be a surprise.
The 2/3 of all US dollars are over seas. They will come home too fast and from many different sources. This will overwhelm and cause hyperinflation. With this unusual pattern, the real estate and car prices will drastically fall.
The cost of food, gas, oil, energy, clothing and electricity will skyrocket. Why? No one will accept the collapsed dollar, thus no one will ship to the US.


OCT19 Alta report
BC85wkVFgh4

[ThePythonicCow]

I am expecting the most powerful, and their debt-money system, and rebuilt nation-states cooperating in support of these most powerful, to rise like Phoenix from the ashes of the collapse of the current hegemony, in a new multi-polar, multi-currency, world order.
As I've probably mentioned previously, I expect that the multi-polar political order will be led by some variant of the United Nations, and the multi-currency monetary order be controlled by some variant of the IMF/BIS, through the fixing of the exchange rate of the major "basket" currencies, plus perhaps gold, with an abstraction called the SDR.

In a new post, Ken over at RedefiningGod.com spells out in more detail how the United Nations political "next world order" can be expected to work, in his latest post The New World Order Schedule of Implementation (http://redefininggod.com/2016/11/the-new-world-order-schedule-of-implementation-mod-3-0-step-1/).

Ken anticipates that the UN Security Council, which currently has some rotating members, and five permanent members which have veto power, will be expanded to better cover all regions of the world. He also expects that the veto power of the five permanent members will be removed -- no nation should be "above the law" of the United Nations.

Ken also anticipates that the military "peace keeping" forces of the UN will be substantially beefed up.

Ken doesn't mention the following, but to me the following is a critical detail. Political, legal, military and monetary power work together, and whatever would be the dominant expression of power on this planet requires all three. In particular, the monetary system requires the support of dominant political, legal and military power in order to enforce debt repayments and repossessions. It has been no accident that the US Military was dominant at the same time as the US Dollar based debt-money system. The same will happen with the upcoming SDR-denominated world debt-money system, and the military "peace keeping" arm of the UN.

Ken expects that there will be some sort of military overreach and fear creating conflict, soon, by some of the existing major national militaries, such as between the US and Russia in Syria, that will discredit national militaries in the world view, and justify the substantial build-up of an international UN "peace keeping" force.

"Peace keeping" ... reminds me of the famous "Peacemaker" Colt .45 revolver, used to "settle" the American West, in the late 1800's.

http://picturearchive.gunauction.com/4241203238/10560093/picture%20962.jpg_thumbnail0.jpg
Such a fearful, intense conflict, limited to a region and fairly brief in time, between say Russian and American military forces, besides justifying the above described build up and restructuring of the United Nations, would also justify the down sizing of the US Military, the closing of hundreds of its foreign bases around the world, and the dismantling of NATO.

Meet the new boss, world hegemony, same as the old boss, American hegemony.

In a debt-money system, the biggest banker requires the biggest gun - to ensure debt collection.

[Pam]

Interesting listen and comparison from the data set in the October report.

Few bullet points of the first seven minutes. Note, I left a lot out because it’s a dense report:


Electoral confusion, not votes
Trump wins by a landslide relative to recent elections, but it won’t make a difference. We’ll go into a mass state of confusion.
Confusion is the dominating descriptor in the post election time frame
Next layer down is post election where Hilary is missing, debt bubble bursts, foreign repatriation of dollars and fractured politics, the deep state is active, the shadow government is active and again Trump wins and a state of mass confusion.
Debt bubble bursting rises due to active, dynamic events and not as a result as a long term completion cycle. It’s not unexpected because we’ve been expecting it. But on the day that it happens it will be a surprise.
The 2/3 of all US dollars are over seas. They will come home too fast and from many different sources. This will overwhelm and cause hyperinflation. With this unusual pattern, the real estate and car prices will drastically fall.
The cost of food, gas, oil, energy, clothing and electricity will skyrocket. Why? No one will accept the collapsed dollar, thus no one will ship to the US.


OCT19 Alta report
BC85wkVFgh4


Confirmation of what Clif has to say in this article from Zero Hedge published 11/16/2016:

Saudis, China Dump Treasuries; Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $375 Billion In US Paper

by Tyler Durden
Nov 16, 2016 4:55 PM


One month ago, when we last looked at the Fed's update of Treasuries held in custody, we noted something troubling: the number had dropped sharply, declining by over $22 billion in one week, one of the the biggest weekly declines since January 2015, pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.805 trillion, the lowest since 2012. One month later, we refresh this chart and find that in last week's update, foreign central banks continued their relentless liquidation of US paper held in the Fed's custody account, which tumbled by another $14 billion over the course of a week, pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.788 trillion, a new post-2012 low.

Today, to corroborate the disturbing weekly slide in the Fed's custody data, we also got the latest monthly Treasury International Capital data for the month of September, which showed that the troubling trend presented one month ago, has accelerated to an unprecedented degree.

Recall that a month ago, we reported that in the latest 12 months we have observed a not so stealthy, actually make that a massive $343 billion in Treasury selling by foreign central banks in the period July 2015- August 2016, something unprecedented in size.

Fast forward to today when in the latest monthly update for the month of September, we find that what until a month ago was "merely" a record $346.4 billion in offshore central bank sales in the LTM period ending August 31 has - one month later - risen to a new all time high $374.7 billion, or well over a third of a trillion in Treasuries sold in the past 12 months.

Among the biggest sellers - on a market-price basis - not surprisingly was China, which in August "sold" $28 billion in US paper (the actual underlying number while different, as this particular series is adjusted for Mark to Market variations, will be similar), bringing its total to $1.157 trillion, the lowest amount of US paper held by Beijing since 2012.

It wasn't just China: Saudi Arabia also continued to sell its TSY holdings, and in August its stated holdings (which again have to be adjusted for MTM), dropped from $93Bn to $89Bn, the lowest since the summer of 2014. This was the 8th consecutive month of Treasury sales by the Kingdom, which held $124 billion in TSYs in January, and has since sold nearly 30% of its US paper holdings.

As we pointed out one month ago, what is becoming increasingly obvious is that both foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, reserve managers, and virtually every other official institution in possession of US paper, is liquidating their holdings at a very troubling pace, something which in light of the action in the past week appears to have been a prudent move.

In some cases, like China, this is to offset devaluation pressure; in others such as Saudi Arabia, it is to provide the funds needed to offset the collapse of the petrodollar, and to backstop the country's soaring budget deficit. In all cases, it may suggest concerns about a spike in future debt issuance by the US, especially now under the pro-fiscal stimulus Trump administration.

So who are they selling to? The answer, at least until last month, was private demand, in other words just like in the stock market the retail investor is the final bagholder, so when it comes to US Treasuries, "private investors" both foreign and domestic are soaking up hundreds of billions in central bank holdings. As we said last month when we observed this great rotation in Treasuries out of official holders into private hands, "we wonder if they would [keep buying] knowing who is selling to them." Well, this month it changed, and after private investors had been happily snapping up bonds for 4 straight months, in September "other foreign investors" sold a whopping $31 billion, bringing the total outflow between public and private foreign holdings to $76.6 billion, the second highest number on record!

Meanwhile, while just three months ago yields had tumbled to near all time lows, suddenly the picture is inverted, and long-yields are surging on concerns that not only will the BOJ, the Fed, and maybe even the ECB will soon taper their purchases of the long end, but that Donald Trump is about to unleash a $1 trillion debt tsunami at a time when the Fed will not be available to monetize it.

While it is unclear under what conditions foreign buyers may come back, one thing is very clear: as of this moments the selling strike not only continues but is accelerating, and should the foreign liquidation of Treasuries fail to slow, Yellen will have no choice but to forget about hiking rates and focus on QE4 instead.

[RunningDeer]

Cliff High - wujo November 18, 2016

Summary provided by Cliff High:

Apologies for the blurry video. FStop stuck. Used camera.

Bonds turned in July
Then USA bonds took the largest 1 day move ever the day after Trump elected.

American Federal Reserve Note empire meltdown continues:
dollar up which means trade down;
jobs down;
healthcare costs up, delivery of services down;
largest amount of out of country medical services levels ever in last two years by USAPop.
JIT supply system under huge stress. Further shipping problems and collapses underway.
Next up: USAPop 2017


_nn6u0V1Vrc


Published on Nov 18, 2016

[ThePythonicCow]

Bonds turned in July
Then USA bonds took the largest 1 day move ever the day after Trump elected.

American Federal Reserve Note empire meltdown continues:
dollar up which means trade down;

A little over 104 years ago, JP Morgan (the person) orchestrated the sinking of the Titanic, as part of installing the Federal Reserve in the US (by killing the lead opponents to the Fed). This was a key operation in moving the world's dominant currency from the British Pound to the US Dollar.

http://thespiritscience.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Titanic-sinking.jpg

===

JP Morgan (the institution), as well as others, such as the Fed, the US Treasury, the BIS, and key Chinese institutions, are at it again, this time moving the dominant currency from the uni-polar US Dollar, to a multiple currency arrangement.

http://thepythoniccow.us/Titanic-sinking_Dollar.jpg
Presently, the US Dollar is rising strongly, against other currencies such as the Yen and Euro, as reported here (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKBN13D03H?il=0) and here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-18/euro-historic-slide-dollar-surge-bond-rout-continues).

===

To understand what goes up, versus what goes down, my favorite mental model is a high building of many stories, with people living or working on each story of the building. During good times, the highest stories are the most desired, with the best view. If an earthquake or fire threatens some higher stories, people rush to lower stories.

The lowest story is the "ground" level, of real goods, services, food, water, shelter, factories, ships, plantations, and such. The next story is physical money - gold and silver. In a debt-money system, the next story is the leading currency of the time, which is the US Dollar at present. The next story is the leading debt paper of the time, which is US Treasury debt at present. More speculative, higher up, stories include other currencies, other national debt, corporate stocks and bonds, and options and derivatives and whatnot. These are at various levels, depending on how stablle and trusted, or speculative, they are.

As reported here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-18/us-bond-market-liquidity-collapses-its-worse-brexit), the US Treasury layer is experiencing its major shocks, with sharp drops in their value (hence new issues of Treasury debt must offer higher interest rates to find a market.)

This decline in US Treasury value, as major holders of Treasury debt are now seeking to sell more than they buy, causes major investors to rush to the next lower story, the US Dollar (in an indirect, but strong, reaction.)

The US Dollar (as the current global reserve currency of the world) is gaining strength, like the rising end of the Titanic above. The other major currencies, still connected to the Dollar, are forced down. Similarly, the major national bonds, connected to declining Treasury debt, are forced up, with some offering negative interest rates (value of bond is under water.)

If one puts too much stress on this, these connections break down, as happened when the Titanic split in half, some 104 years ago.

All major currencies will fail, or at least undergo major transformations. The US Dollar as the world's reserve currency will sink to the bottom of the ocean. A domestic US Treasury Dollar will take it's place for use within the US, as just another national currency.

As foretold on this 1988 Economist cover, this sinking and resurrection of the world's monetary system, rising like a Phoenix from the ashes, will take place over the next year or two, and become increasingly and irrefutably obvious to an increasing number of people over the coming months.

http://thepythoniccow.us/theeconomist-phoenix_get_ready_for_world_currency_by_2018.jpg

[ThePythonicCow]

Ken over at RedefiningGod.com continues to post his analysis and expectations of coming events, and I continue to find his analysis excellent.

In Ken's latest post at The New World Order Schedule of Implementation [Mod 3.0, Step 4.1 – More on the “peace path” to the NWO] (http://redefininggod.com/2016/11/the-new-world-order-schedule-of-implementation-mod-3-0-step-1/), he writes:

=============


The globalists want to transition to a financial system that revolves around their “multilateral institutions” and a “gold backed” IMF SDR. I use quotes around the term “gold backed” because the new currencies won’t have a traditional gold backing; it will be more of a gold valuation, but the public will perceive it as gold backing.
=============

I agree.

[ThePythonicCow]

Brandon Smith, of Alt-Market.com (http://www.alt-market.com), in an interview with Richie Allen, anticipates a world-wide economic depression, worse than the Great Depression of the 1930's, to effect massive social change over a short period of time, beginning within six months of Donald Trump taking office in January 2017:
DUTsGhE82IA
In Brandon's view, the elite intend to have a major economic war resulting in the financial destruction of the United States and the removal of the US Dollar as the world reserve currency. They will blame the aggression of the US, to justify Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, etc dumping the Dollar. People will conclude that this is what goes wrong when you have nationalists and populists in charge. They will destroy the philosophy of small government. People will see socialism and global government as the only solution.

===

My take differs in a subtle way from Brandon's (beware: his track record of accurate forecasts is far better than mine). I am expecting the globalists to construct a world structure out of a multi-lateral political structure and multiple national currencies, all subject to global, albeit partially covert, control. "If you want your national government, you can have it" -- but you have to "play by the rules" (that we dictate, for "your own good.")

[ThePythonicCow]

My take differs in a subtle way from Brandon's (beware: his track record of accurate forecasts is far better than mine). I am expecting the globalists to construct a world structure out of a multi-lateral political structure and multiple national currencies, all subject to global, albeit partially covert, control. "If you want your national government, you can have it" -- but you have to "play by the rules" (that we dictate, for "your own good.")

With the Jesuit control of the Catholic Papacy,
with the ancient entanglement of the globalists with both banking and the Jewish faith,
with the deeply embedded Jesuit and banking control of multi-national corporations,
with the Chabad-Lubavitch (http://redefininggod.com/trump-and-putin-agents-of-chabad-lubavitch/) control of both the US and Russian governments,
with (I presume) some form of control over China as well,
with some climax to the "War on Terror" involving dreadful acts of terror or regional destruction in the Middle east, thus justifying global enforcement of "peace keeping" operations there too, and with central control through the BIS of multiple national currencies,the global elite will be secure in their power, as the hidden hands behind a panopoly of political, economic, corporate, religious and monetary institutions.


I do not expect that the globalists need or particularly want our children pledging allegiance to some global UN flag. Rather our children will pledge allegiance to the flags of their various nations, and spend the currencies of those nations, proud in the knowledge that their nations are peace loving, rule obeying, members of the global community, under the auspices of various United Nations and Bank of International Settlement controls.

[TargeT]

I think the daily KOS is a leftist site, so I'm sure these numbers are a bit exaggerated... but still interesting sign of the times....

http://images.dailykos.com/images/145846/story_image/2Bedroom.png?1432920274

http://images.dailykos.com/images/145852/large/didyouknow.png?1432920667
https://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/05/29/1388789/-Stunning-maps-showing-how-much-you-need-to-earn-in-each-state-to-afford-a-two-bedroom-rental-unit?detail=emailclassic&link_id=1&can_id=1da1ce7819bc4e9361b68f03c83dcc1f&source=email-stunning-maps-showing-how-much-you-need-to-earn-in-each-state-to-afford-a-two-bedroom-rental-unit&email_referrer=stunning-maps-showing-how-much-you-need-to-earn-in-each-state-to-afford-a-two-bedroom-rental-unit___138575&email_subject=john-cleese-on-fox-news-stupidity

[ThePythonicCow]

Here's an excellent article on the ways in which economic activity, energy costs, and debt interact, from Gail Tverberg: What has gone wrong with oil prices, debt, and GDP growth? (https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/12/07/what-has-gone-wrong-with-oil-prices-debt-and-gdp-growth/).

Gail "The Actuary" Tverberg has a long standing and well deserved reputation for her acute analyses of humanity's use of energy, it's availability and costs, and the changing impact over time of these factors on human economic activity.

However I was not aware, until reading this latest article of hers, of how perceptive are her insights into and analysis of the role of debt-money in all this.

Debt sows prosperity in the present, at the expense of the future.

In my analogy (not hers) it's like taking steroids in order to bulk up for some athletic event. One might be stronger in the short term, but at the risk of being sicker some years out.

When the debt burden on the economy gets too high (as has happened now, world wide) then things go into reverse. If at the same time (as is also happening now) the cost of the main energy source (how much energy can be extracted and delivered for a given amount of energy spent getting it) starts to rise, this places a further burden on economic activity, alongside the excess debt burden.

Nothing, short of a fundamentally newer and even cheaper energy source that can fuel the bulk of economic activity, can start a new round of prosperity.

Meanwhile, expect a fundamentally deflationary environment. The economy will be less and less able to pay for even ongoing activity, much less for pulling yet more future income into the present with more debt or promises. Austerity, poverty, and "pulling back" will be order of the day.

If a government tries to counter this deflationary trend (less money available) with money printing or with even more debt issuance, then they will get inflation of their currency in the short term, soon leading to high or hyper-inflation and destruction of that currency.

Thus will outbreaks of inflation in one or another national currency punctuate a primarily deflationary trend.

In plain English, people will have less and less money, while the things they need will cost more and more, and be increasingly scare.

So ... you can't find it, or if you can find it, it costs too much, or you can't even afford to buy it at all.

Debt - it's a major part of the ebb and flow of economies.

Energy - another major part of the ebb and flow of economies.

Both global petro energy and global debt at all levels have peaked ... like a roller coaster, the down side goes faster than the trip up.

[ThePythonicCow]

I had read some of Michael Hudson's economic work in past years, but had found his writings a bit difficult to read, and hadn't read anything by him in the last year or so.

Today, thanks to an interview by Yves Smith, Michael Hudson: Economists’ Deadly but Innocuous-Seeming Proclamations (NakedCapitalism.com) (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/michael-hudson-economists-deadly-but-innocuous-seeming-proclamations.html), which led me to a book that Hudson published a year ago, Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage Destroy the Global Economy (http://a.co/iBsYu1V), which in turn led me to a paper that Hudson published back in 2010, From Marx to Goldman Sachs: The Fictions of Fictitious Capital (http://michael-hudson.com/2010/07/from-marx-to-goldman-sachs-the-fictions-of-fictitious-capital1/), I am coming to agree with Paul Craig Roberts that Hudson may well be the World’s Best Economist (http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/02/03/why-michael-hudson-is-the-worlds-best-economist/), and one of the few, if not the only one, worthy of the name.

Perhaps it is because my understanding of the role of debt-money in our civilization is improving to the point that I can understand Hudson better now, or perhaps it is because Hudson is learning to become more readable in his old age (he's in his late 70's now), I am now finding his work a bit more readable. He presents the most brilliant, coherent, comprehensive and learned history and analysis of debt-money that I know of.

Give him a try, and see if you find him worth pursuing. The opening pages of his Killing the Host (http://a.co/iBsYu1V) book (readable in the Amazon "Look Inside" preview) contain a nice, and quite readable, biographical sketch, explaining how Michael Hudson came to where he is now, in his studies.

[TargeT]

to bulk up for some athletic event. One might be stronger in the short term, but at the risk of being sicker some years out.


Just a side note, even "fairly high" doses of Testosterone/steroids are perfectly safe as long as you manage the end of your cycle well ;)

the only people that have had issues are the ones that go "OMG OVER THE TOPPPPPP" levels.




Nothing, short of a fundamentally newer and even cheaper energy source that can fuel the bulk of economic activity, can start a new round of prosperity.

interesting... Germany just had a big step forward in Fusion.... renewable are doing amazing.. there MAY be something to the E-cat (cold fusion)... I wonder if we are being "pump and dumped" to get the last squeeze out of oil before these are released?

[ThePythonicCow]

to bulk up for some athletic event. One might be stronger in the short term, but at the risk of being sicker some years out.


Just a side note, even "fairly high" doses of Testosterone/steroids are perfectly safe as long as you manage the end of your cycle well ;)

the only people that have had issues are the ones that go "OMG OVER THE TOPPPPPP" levels.
It's the same with debt.

Debt that is directly tied to real-world production and distribution of real-world goods, and that is self-limiting (lending decreases when the productivity that would support it decreases) is safe enough, so long as it's managed well, meaning it's managed for the improved production and distribution of real-world goods, not for the profit and power of the wealthy elite and their bankster agents.

Unfortunately, the entire world, individual, corporate and government, large and small, far and wide, is at "OMG OVER THE TOPPPPPP" levels of debt.

That which cannot end well ... won't.

[ThePythonicCow]

I wonder if we are being "pump and dumped" to get the last squeeze out of oil before these are released?
Likely so. First I am guessing that "they" (the infamous Bastards in Power) want to crash "us" (human civilization) hard, so that "they" can gain further control over humanity and ownership of the land, the resources, and the means of production, before they unleash the next wave of technological expansion, involving energy, information, and (across the solar system) mining.

[norman]

I wonder if we are being "pump and dumped" to get the last squeeze out of oil before these are released?
Likely so. First I am guessing that "they" (the infamous Bastards in Power) want to crash "us" (human civilization) hard, so that "they" can gain further control over humanity and ownership of the land, the resources, and the means of production, before they unleash the next wave of technological expansion, involving energy, information, and (across the solar system) mining.

If I think about it as seen from their point of view, it's obvious that they don't want 7 to 10 billion people playing around with advanced tech toys. In their sequence of events they MUST either kill or control us ( most ) before releasing the good stuff. That's why it's been so long covered up. If we wriggle out of being controlled, they will go for killing us.

[pyrangello]

When the comment is made about repossessing items because the banks want to collect their note, I would submit to you there isn't enough space or buyers out there to repurchase the repos that we could be discussing about. What was stated a few months ago that 60% of the households in the US have less than a $1000 US in the bank. If anything it is just the opposite as when I had a conversation with my banker about repossessions and that they (the bank) don't want to repossess because it cost them so much money to begin with in fees, administrative, ect ect. and then they are stuck with an asset they need to sell. It would frankly be overwhelming period.

I do agree however the world is swamped in debt , credit default swaps, and currency issues. My grandmother told me about when the depression hit. It was a time for everyone to come together to make it thru . And there were those who it didn't impact at all. But then again that was a time when there were no extended credit cards, lines, ect ect. and people were more self reliant, farming, canning food, ect ect.

[Helene West]

Back during the 2008 crash some of us knew it was coming from listening to the usual interviewees that still appear on Greg Hunter et al and we moved our 401ks etc to "safe" categories like the company's Stable Market Fund or money markets, i.e. government short term bills of some sort. But all these interviewees appearing on shows are saying this time the Bond market will collapse as well.
If that is the case I haven't a clue how to protect myself. If you can't put money in short term Bills or a money market, etc. and you are not a savvy finance person, a lay person like myself, what the heck do you do?
Please don't tell me stock up on canned food, that won't help the loss of an entire retirement fund and not all of us live in large spaces to be stocking up on canned goods. A stock market crash I'm prepared for but a bond market crash, I can't even fathom....

[ThePythonicCow]

When the comment is made about repossessing items because the banks want to collect their note, I would submit to you there isn't enough space or buyers out there to repurchase the repos that we could be discussing about.
Yes, the ordinary stuff that we bought retail off the shelf won't be repossessed, for the reasons you note.

What gets "repossessed" are larger items. Homes have been one item repossessed, not so much for their value to the bank, but (I suspect) to keep the remaining mortgage holders making their monthly payments. The items that get repossessed for their own value are even larger items, such as businesses, infrastructure (ports, utilities, ...), land, resources (water, minerals, oil, gas, ...) and farm production. These are more valuable, and end up more under the control of the creditor (such as China) with the strongest position.

[ThePythonicCow]

...
I found your blog post today to be an especially insightful and well written analysis of the Fed interest rate increase that is anticipated in two days: Federal Reserve will move after the greatest transfer of wealth (https://mgray12.wordpress.com/2016/12/12/federal-reserve-will-move-after-the-greatest-transfer-of-wealth/).

Well done - thanks.

[TargeT]

How the individual US citizen was robbed by its government... This is the one thing that kind of excites me about a trump president,, perhaps these will be reversed?



http://www.cnsnews.com/s3/files/styles/content_100p/s3/individual_income_tax-customs_duty-chart.jpg?itok=e0UbA2So
Despite hitting this all-time record for individual income-tax revenues during the first two months of this fiscal year, overall federal tax revenues (in constant 2016 dollars) declined from $424,284,540,000 in October-November 2015 to $421,567,000,000 in October-November 2016. That is a drop of $2,717,540,000.

While individual income tax receipts increased from last year to this year in the October-November period, inflation-adjusted revenues from corporate income taxes, Social Security and other payroll taxes, excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, and customs duties all declined.

In constant 2016 dollars, corporation income tax revenues dropped from $8,085,610,000 in October-November 2015 to $2,920,000,000 in October-November this year.

Social Security and other payroll taxes dropped from $165,746,890,000 in October-November of last year to $164,936,000,000 in October-November this year.

Excise taxes dropped from $13,407,350,000 in October-November of last year to $12,938,000,000 in October-November this year.

Estate and gift taxes dropped from $3,921,440,000 in October-November of last year to $2,875,000,000 in October-November of this year.

Customs duties dropped from $6,447,680,000 in October-November of last year to $5,966,000,000 in October-November of this year.

That means that the record $213,300,000,000 in individual income taxes the federal government collected in October-November of this year was approximately 36 times as much as the $5,966,000,000 in customs duties it collected on foreign imports brought into the United States during the same period.
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/213300000000-individual-income-taxes-set-record-first-2-months-fy17

I'm sure they are adjusting based on inflation numbers given to them by the Dept of Treasury.. which are dubious numbers at best.. It's probably much worse.

[Helene West]

wish I understood how the fed rate hikes announced today will impact our money and our accounts

[ThePythonicCow]

wish I understood how the fed rate hikes announced today will impact our money and our accounts
Once the Fed starts raising rates, the likelihood of an economic and stock market decline rises.

There was a dramatic, but short lived, stock market decline a year ago, the last time (and the only other time in the last decade) that the Fed raised rates, in December of 2015.

My stock market forecasting record is dreadful ... but for what it's worth, I am taking today's rise in the Fed rate to be another indication that the "slow burn" (Catherine Austin Fitt's phrase) economic decline that we've been in for the last several years will escalate dramatically, starting soon (a few weeks or months).

[norman]

Back in the days when I believed everything that came out of the mouth of Pastor Lindsey Williams, he said watch for currency wars and a rise in interest rates at the Fed. As soon as that happens, you'll know it's the time.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/seasonal-celebrations-thanksgiving-indians-thanksgiving_meal-indian-red_indians-glln123_low.jpg

[Helene West]

wish I understood how the fed rate hikes announced today will impact our money and our accounts
Once the Fed starts raising rates, the likelihood of an economic and stock market decline rises.

There was a dramatic, but short lived, stock market decline a year ago, the last time (and the only other time in the last decade) that the Fed raised rates, in December of 2015.

My stock market forecasting record is dreadful ... but for what it's worth, I am taking today's rise in the Fed rate to be another indication that the "slow burn" (Catherine Austin Fitt's phrase) economic decline that we've been in for the last sever al years will escalate dramatically, starting soon (a few weeks or months).

I've felt for some time that clinton 'winning' would be the continuation of Catherine's slow burn and if trump was installed it meant the ruling class decided to accelerate hardship for whatever reason. It will be funny if we start feeling ramifications right around inauguration time...

[TargeT]

Interesting shift....Looks like Japan has been on a steady diet of US Debt since 2011.. I never realized that, doesn't seem like a smart move on Japan's part (to me anyway).


Japan Overtakes China as Largest Holder of U.S. Treasuries
China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined to the lowest in more than six years as the world’s second-largest economy uses its currency reserves to support the yuan. Japan overtook China as America’s top foreign creditor, as its holdings edged down at a slower pace.A monthly Treasury Department report showed China held $1.12 trillion in U.S. government bonds, notes and bills in October, down $41.3 billion from the prior month and the lowest investment since July 2010. The portfolio of Japan decreased for third month, falling by $4.5 billion to $1.13 trillion, according to the data. Collectively, the two nations account for about 37 percent of America’s foreign debt holdings.
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iWrEEMmbIs4I/v2/-1x-1.png
China’s foreign reserves, the world’s largest stockpile, declined for the fifth straight month in November to $3.05 trillion -- the lowest since March 2011 -- amid support for the sliding currency. That stockpile has fallen from a record $4 trillion in June 2015.

The report, which also contains data on international capital flows, showed net foreign buying of long-term securities totaling $9.4 billion in October.

International investors sold $63.5 billion in U.S. Treasuries in October, while foreigners purchased a net $4.5 billion of corporate debt, $20.5 billion in equities, and $32.4 billion in agency debt, according to the report.https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i2LUsdPEooyU/v1/-1x-1.png
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/japan-overtakes-china-as-largest-holder-of-u-s-treasuries

[ThePythonicCow]

Interesting shift....Looks like Japan has been on a steady diet of US Debt since 2011.. I never realized that, doesn't seem like a smart move on Japan's part (to me anyway).
The elite banksters are playing hide-the-sausage with US Treasuries, the primary reserve holding of the current US Dollar reserve monetary system.

Japan is a willing compliant nation in that shell game, and has the immense pension fund (http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2014/06/11/treasuries-likely-to-benefit-from-japan-pension-fund-reform/) savings of its aging population to play with. What Jim Willie calls the BLICS (https://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2015/05/28/meet-the-blics-new-source-for-phony-dollar-support-by-jim-willie/) (not BRICS, rather BLICS) nations of Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Cayman Islands, and Switzerland are other key nations holding the bags to accumulate Treasuries that China and other Treasury holders no longer want.

[Cardillac]

for more info on this subject please check out economist Doug Casey's interview; much of what he states echos Paul's sentiments on this (Casey has an incredible track record in correctly predicting economic events)-

http://moneywise411.com/man-who-predicted-trump-oub7/

are we in for a bumpy ride?

please stay well all-

Larry