Trump and OPEC

[AutumnW]

This is a question more than anything.

Three events that seem linked. They all occurred at roughly the same time. Perhaps readers can explain how and why.

Trump is elected.
OPEC decides to reduce output. Oil prices rise.
Trump talks Iran sanctions.

Is Trump Israel and Saudi's new bestie? Is this why?

[lucidity]

There was a story on rt.com which suggested that Putin had done
some deal with the Saudi's to bilaterally reduce oil production...
after that the rest of OPEC joined in. There's no details on what
agreements might have been exchanged between Russia and the
Saudis to achieve this production cut. (i.e. no details that i know of,
perhaps the full story is out there and i simply haven't seen it)

When the Saudis announced they were opening the oil production
flood gates, it came immediately after record highs in oil prices
(high prices that saw a staggering level of enrichment for the oil
producing countries: Russia and Saudi Arabia included).
Then the Saudis flooded the oil market with excess oil and the price
dropped to the floor. This was widely interpreted by alt news community
as part of the intensifying cold war attack on Russia. But this financial
attack on Russia also impoverishes Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, American
oil companies and European oil companies... The majority of those injured
by the attack are friends of America. Prima facie, not a great strategy
for winning and keeping friendships. And this was never going to be a
strategy that could be maintained long term.

The interesting question for me is... Did the Saudi's seek permission to
reimpose oil production quotas ? Or did they revolt at the soonest opportunity
that the satanic, child raping, cabal lost control of the US administration ?
The Saudis have been extremely compliant and accommodating in the past
to US wishes.... are they still, i wonder... (after suffering these huge financial
losses in the service of a cold war against Russia)

Trump has previously said he wants to 'normalise' relations with Russia.
i.e. move to a non-war footing.

It's an interesting question whether Trump will bend over backwards at
the service of Israel's interests. If the answer is yes, we can (presumably)
expect to see more media stories of slaughtered Palestinians.

time will tell.

be happy :)

[DeDukshyn]

... Trump has previously said he wants to 'normalise' relations with Russia.
i.e. move to a non-war footing. ...



Interesting addition to this conversation.

[Baby Steps]

industry predictions are a gentle increase in the oil price over the next few years.

that means the Russians cooperating with the saudis (like a de-facto OPEC member,) to restrict production, and no other producers like Iran or Venezuela flooding the market.

saudi strategy was to sweat out us shale production, to drive much of it into bankruptcy by flooding the market. this has not worked as well as they expected, as much production in the us turned out to be more efficient that published.

so we have a change of course. saudi is looking to float off Aramco, and the price they get obviously relates to crude prices.

i think they will turn up the heat on Iran, as it supports Hamas. sanctions may restrict Irans ability to ramp up oil production.

i do not think there is an appetite to invade the place. look at the topography, it is a huge natural fortress. am sure the Israelis would dearly love to see the place bombed.

however if Russia, Usa and Saudi cooperate, hopefully that will not be on the table

[AutumnW]

Thank you everybody. Great responses. I think that things are lining up the way you are describing, Baby Steps. Russia, a traditional ally of Iran may turn its back on Iran in lieu of forming oil synergies with Saudi Arabia.

Also, Baby Steps, correct me if you think I am mistaken here. Does Trump's hostility to China and Iran strike you as linked? I see it as a way of controlling China's energy supply. Is China not Iran's biggest oil supplier?

Will the U.S. possibly move to control the Straits of Hormuz?

Is Putin playing along to get along, I wonder. Will he do a 180 degree bait and switch, at some point. That would be really....what's the word...FUNNY??:happythumbsup:

[Baby Steps]

Also, Baby Steps, correct me if you think I am mistaken here. Does Trump's hostility to China and Iran strike you as linked? I see it as a way of controlling China's energy supply. Is China not Iran's biggest oil supplier?



Excellent point. I think Trump wants to put pressure on those two, but not start wars. Like in business- play hard ball, then sit down and talk. ( I hope)

[TargeT]

This is a question more than anything.

Three events that seem linked. They all occurred at roughly the same time. Perhaps readers can explain how and why.

Trump is elected.
OPEC decides to reduce output. Oil prices rise.
Trump talks Iran sanctions.

Is Trump Israel and Saudi's new bestie? Is this why?

OPEC's flooding of the market was an economic warfare move by the US to hurt Russia.

That attack is now canceled.



saudi strategy was to sweat out us shale production,

It was against Russia, who's entire economy is heavily oil dependent (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/how-cheap-oil-is-squeezing-russia-s-economy), go back and look at the time lines and situations around when the production flood gates were opened ;)





Is Putin playing along to get along, I wonder.

Seems to me like he's being rational and not trying to start a war ;)

[Chester]

I also suspect that there was intent to knock out many of the "smaller" independent oil producers who had been betting on the projected shale oil boom.

Often these types of actions are pre-perceived to produce multiple benefits. I know some independents who have pulled back operations, even closed offices (and thus some folks lost jobs) all and only because of the price "draw down."

[Bruno]

I think Trump will end up in Iran, maybe not in the first year, but during his presidency. I don't believe he will be any different then other Presidents, just a different facade/persona. Obama was a type of hope that never materialized and now Trump is a different kind of hope that won't amount to anything either. Same puppet masters steering us in the same direction while we are distracted by the puppet.

[Baby Steps]

Target, I agree that it was against Russia from the USA point of view. They allowed the Saudis to do it, because although it hurt USA production & revenue, it was worth it to hurt Russia.

Edit: Also chaos in Venezuela due to oil revenue collapse would suit long term corporate interests....

[Chester]

I think Trump will end up in Iran, maybe not in the first year, but during his presidency. I don't believe he will be any different then other Presidents, just a different facade/persona. Obama was a type of hope that never materialized and now Trump is a different kind of hope that won't amount to anything either. Same puppet masters steering us in the same direction while we are distracted by the puppet.

Would you like to make a wager on this (Iran)? I will even give you 10 to 1.

[Bruno]

Would you like to make a wager on this (Iran)? I will even give you 10 to 1.[/QUOTE]

Sure, I will take it. I hope I lose but that's what I feel will happen one way or another. I am not saying that Trump will put us there, I just feel like that is the direction we are headed.

[TargeT]

Target, I agree that it was against Russia from the USA point of view. They allowed the Saudis to do it, because although it hurt USA production & revenue, it was worth it to hurt Russia.

Edit: Also chaos in Venezuela due to oil revenue collapse would suit long term corporate interests....

we TOLD the saudi's to do it.. they are DEEP in our pocket and have been for years (ever since we taught them how to produce oil, then backed them militarily for decades), they are (were? they still act the same) our partners in crime keeping the petro-dollar supreme.

I doubt any of the small companies that were doing shale were of any concern to the "big players" they probably were not even noticed/factored in... that was very "small potatoes" compared to the scale of this economic warfare situation, this was around the same time as the "defensive missile sites" went in as well....

The US has more oil than the middle east, we are just biding our time, resource wise... ;)



Edit: Also chaos in Venezuela due to oil revenue collapse would suit long term corporate interests....

Well i'm pretty sure we assassinated Chavez and their oil refinery closed in 2012.. so they were done already at that point i think... that country is chaos multiplied currently...

[Baby Steps]

we TOLD the saudi's to do it.. they are DEEP in our pocket and have been for years (ever since we taught them how to produce oil, then backed them militarily for decades), they are (were? they still act the same) our partners in crime keeping the petro-dollar supreme.


wow, are you sure that the USA is really still the 'daddy' in this relationship? Not disagreeing. Can you give me a source for that- that basically Saudi was doing what it was told? Thanks.
(I suspect it is a bit give-and-take, but hard to know)