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View Full Version : Banks might still be in trouble



WhiteLove
14th January 2017, 19:54
Since the middle of 2007 up until the end of September last year, the Deutsche Bank stock had been in a near -92% decline. The stock was obviously on a collapse course.

On 30th September 2016, suddenly from nowhere came this extreme single trading day volume spike in the stock amounting to ~2.3 bUSD at near its lowest price level during this 9 year period, the stock advanced +14% that day.

This turned out to be caused by the rumor of a $5.4-billion dollar mortgage bonds settlement the bank was near to reach with the US Justice of Department. In a way it appeared to be a soft bail out, maybe driven by the media and the powers behind the scene, because prior to this the media circulated that the settlement would be at more than twice that. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/deutsche-bank-asked-to-pay-14-billion-in-u-s-probe-wsj-says) So it appeared a fake fear had been established half a month prior...

Since then the stock has advanced ~+47%, which is a lot over this 3.5 month period, what is that great intrinsic value addition this reflects one might wonder... Because it appears it was only the removal of fake fear ingested into the investor climate. The oil price increased ~+21% also, exiting the stagnation phase.

The day when those investors exit these heavy positions (especially if they are in the hands of a very few), it could cause an enormous surge downwards in the banking sector, because we have to remember that when a stock like this loses its upward momentum, the sell and short pressure could become huge, so a lot could happen in a very short amount of time.

For a sell race like that to start, it could be enough that the overall markets go into a negative trend triggered by a single event. The Shanghai Stock Exchange index (SHA) appears to have maybe already entered this type of trend and the price of gold has started to recover from the declines that started when the fake news was ingested into the investor climate. Somebody ingested the fake news, exited their Gold positions, blanked the Deutsche Bank stocks and then went long when the reversal of the news was ingested back into the investor climate two weeks later.

It appears to be a pretty risky situation because at this point Dow Jones is also near all time highs. The US 30 Year T-Bond Futures are also in a pretty steep downtrend since the middle of 2016. What happens when that continues and the rest reverses with the entire banking sector in the eye of such a storm...

Inauguration of Donald Trump is on January 20, 2017.
Next Fed meetings are on 31 January and 1 February, 2017.
Preliminary Deutsche Bank results report for FY 2016 is on February 2, 2017.

A rate hike or similar followed by a much weaker than expected Deutsche Bank FY16 report and maybe combined with some geopolitical events could be all it takes to start a gold race as a result of a collapsing banking sector and dips on the global financial markets. Could become Trump's first challenge, maybe even planted there according to some agenda set a long time ago by the powers behind the scene, a possibility (but a pretty high octane speculation). This type of agenda could be related to some of the war propaganda we have seen in the fake news lately, just a guess scenario. But overall this could be something worth monitoring because there are several things that could synchronize in a way that could create some major movements on the markets...

lucidity
14th January 2017, 22:45
This is correct. Deutsche Bank in particular has managed to stay on it's feet
but everyone is expecting it to crash. But they can't let this happen, because
if it does, it will take out major banks, right across Europe... and cause a major depression.

Feb 2017 could see the start of the news that basically leads to many years
of recession for Europe.

On the other hand, this: "Deutsche-Bank-is-About-to-Collapse" story...
... has been rolling for at least 2 years. Europe can't afford for it to happen
so presumably, it's not going to happen.

I keep wondering, if the _real_ reason for Brexit, was to insulate the UK
from the liability of bailing out the European banks.... which naturally,
wouldn't be cheap.

So... with Trump, Antarctica and the (almost secret) European banking crisis,
there's plenty to look forward to in 2017.

be happy :-)

mgray
14th January 2017, 23:16
All you need to know about the health of the global banking system is this.

No bank is required to mark their assets to market conditions. The mark the assets to what they believe an "acceptable" value is.

This allows them to look much more healthy on its balance sheet.

Mark to market would crater many banks from Deutsche to Citibank and many others.

ghostrider
14th January 2017, 23:16
All the banks are in trouble , the way the feds use quantitative easing , banks are holding paper money ,that becomes worth less and less ... Now China is trying to make the yen the worlds reserve currency ,that could make the dollar worth 50 cents overnight ... banks holding paper money will be in bigger trouble ...

Jantje
15th January 2017, 09:52
Has anyone seen this guy before ? His name is Jonathan Sugarman
He told something about the dutch ABN Amro bank that certainly has not been reported in the main-stream media.
I do remember the always smiling dutch minister of finance Wouter Bos, that suddenly stoppped smiling and basically left politics after "saving" the ABN Amro bank. I knew something fishy was going on there but this guy explained it for me.

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