Arctic Sea ice melt Season 2017

[GrayWolfBG]

Well we are at the " party balloon bumping along the ceiling" time of year on the Sea ice extent/Area Graphs so Maximum might not be many days away.

How many here will be following the melt Season this year?

How many think that we will see a record melt Season this year ( and why?)?

In past years it has been nigh on impossible to figure the final figures of the ice due to the large impacts 'weather' could have on a melt season. We could see a cold, cloudy year, we could see a 2007 'perfect melt storm', we could see a mix. In the past each would have provided very different final figures for the ice.

Last year this 'altered' with a poor melt forcings year ( June/July/August, the highest insolation months, were all cool and cloudy) still lead to a joint second in extent ( shared with the 2007' extreme melt of the perfect melt year!!!) and area second to none and close to 2012's record low area ( it was probably lower than 2012 but the dispersed nature of the ice, and the way we measure ice, bigging up 2016's final numbers?)

This remarkable state of affairs was due to the remarkable winter season we saw. We were lucky enough to have a study team on the ice throughout the winter ( over on the Atlantic side of the Basin: N-ICE 2015) so took good data over the re-freeze. We saw a storm , on the 27th of December 2015, raise temps at the pole to above freezing!!! a feat that was repeated again over the remaining re-freeze meaning the total Freezing Degree Days was very low ( the ice was not cooled to its normal levels meaning it melted out with less energy).

The winter just passed had even less FDD's and by October the pack had dropped to lowest volume on record ( and the gap has widened,month on month, to the next lowest year!) as our oldest , thickest ice gets shipped out into the Atlantic via the fram straight ( more 'good ice shipping out' as I type!!!).

So ? Where do I think this leaves us?

In October of 2007 Scientists were both getting over the shock of the losses but also seeing how common such 'perfect' melt and export conditions are across the basin. They found that they cycled around on a 10 to 20 year cycle with the last two ,before 07', having only ten year spacing's.

Does this mean we should expect the return of 'The perfect melt storm' in 2017?

Well I do not think that we are talking about the same Basin any more? Summer open water leads to high levels of cloudiness so making the type of high pressure dominated season now near impossible. If it were to return then we really would be looking at an ice free basin by August!!!

[wnlight]

It will be cooler this Summer.

[Rocky_Shorz]

Because of earths position now versus the last CO2 spike, the sun is 4% hotter.

The ocean is going to be bathtub temp in January, which causes molecules to spread causing sea rises without melting glaciers...

Trump isn't going to change until his Mar Lagos has ocean waves washing away his buildings.

I think anyone speaking in public against the reality of global warming should be flogged verbally by alternate media, not promoted.

I want Anonymous to dig into climate change deniers to find who is loading their lips...

[Rocky_Shorz]

Rupert Murdoch, you are guilty of spreading lies that hurts National Security of the United States. Treason would be the least of your crimes. I concider this planned Genocide. You're fired!!!

I want your puppet Master...

From Fulford, Feb 2016...

"Many clear signals are already being sent to the Wall Street mobsters in New York. For one thing, their corporate media control grid is being hacked. According to Pentagon sources, “Rupert Murdoch’s Fox Network has been ordered to

reboot the x-files program to reveal truth in plain sight about alien technology, free energy, anti-gravity, 911, NSA, depopulation etc.” Agency sources say..."

If you would have done what you were asked, when you were asked, we wouldn't have a dumbass President thinking Global warming isn't real.

[ghostrider]

When oceans rise , coastlines will sink ... the melting of glaciers will impact the big picture ... the jet stream, migration, weather, are all in the crosshairs ...

[ghostrider]

Fukushima is quietly creeping into weather patterns ... a factor the scientists and meteorological community never say much about ...

[Fellow Aspirant]

The Canadian federal weather service, Environment Canada, has posted a map showing its predictions for the summer of 2017. It shows lower than average temperatures expected on the west and east coasts, but higher than normal temperatures for the arctic and the south central regions (around the great lakes)

35055

B.

[GrayWolfBG]

Well extent took another tumble today so I guess March 6th was our official Maximum? This would be another record low maximum and again not breaking the 14 million line?

[seehas]

Ive posted this some time ago, you can check the ocean level on the global map.

http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/

Parts of Florida and the Netherlands will go down first.

[GrayWolfBG]

Sadly most folk rely upon their Social media feeds or favourite Forum to keep them 'informed'. They do not check sources or expand searches and so appear to have a 'Flavour of the moment' to their opinions depending on just which new Papaer is being spun that week?

Sea level rise come from 2 places;

Thermal expansion of the Oceans and ice melt.

Thermal expansion is easy. you know the volumes of water and you know then temps and you know what an increase of 'x' degrees will cause in terms of expansion of that volume of water. It never changes.

Ice melt. Bit tricky that one.

Year on year our understanding of the mechanics of ice loss improves so year on year the extremes between max and min to be expected widen. All this does is ,year on year, raise the 'average increases' we should expect and foreshorten the timescale of those changes?

Because we have not seen any 'epic collapse' ( yet) of an ocean terminating glacier yet folk on the whole do not seem concerned about Sea level change? They talk about it but it is asll a dim ,distant event beyond their understanding. See and Ocean terminating Glacier suddenly retreat 15km up valley and the catastrophic 'float off' of the ice beyond ( as the ocean water flows down slope into the central Greenland basin where it begins the breakup of the ice dome above) and then folk might realise the peril of losing oil terminals overnight or off loading areas for cargo ships!

[Flash]

J'ai sincèrement rien compris. Voilà la raison pour laquelle les gens ne s'informent pas sur la fonte et la montée des océans.

Yes, you are speaking "French" to me, I understood not much. Can you translate in a common folk understandable language. I am interested, but i have to understand.

But I understood the map below and realise that part of the artic and my own region will be much hotter this summer.




Well we are at the " party balloon bumping along the ceiling" time of year on the Sea ice extent/Area Graphs so Maximum might not be many days away.

How many here will be following the melt Season this year?

How many think that we will see a record melt Season this year ( and why?)?

In past years it has been nigh on impossible to figure the final figures of the ice due to the large impacts 'weather' could have on a melt season. We could see a cold, cloudy year, we could see a 2007 'perfect melt storm', we could see a mix. In the past each would have provided very different final figures for the ice.

Last year this 'altered' with a poor melt forcings year ( June/July/August, the highest insolation months, were all cool and cloudy) still lead to a joint second in extent ( shared with the 2007' extreme melt of the perfect melt year!!!) and area second to none and close to 2012's record low area ( it was probably lower than 2012 but the dispersed nature of the ice, and the way we measure ice, bigging up 2016's final numbers?)

This remarkable state of affairs was due to the remarkable winter season we saw. We were lucky enough to have a study team on the ice throughout the winter ( over on the Atlantic side of the Basin: N-ICE 2015) so took good data over the re-freeze. We saw a storm , on the 27th of December 2015, raise temps at the pole to above freezing!!! a feat that was repeated again over the remaining re-freeze meaning the total Freezing Degree Days was very low ( the ice was not cooled to its normal levels meaning it melted out with less energy).

The winter just passed had even less FDD's and by October the pack had dropped to lowest volume on record ( and the gap has widened,month on month, to the next lowest year!) as our oldest , thickest ice gets shipped out into the Atlantic via the fram straight ( more 'good ice shipping out' as I type!!!).

So ? Where do I think this leaves us?

In October of 2007 Scientists were both getting over the shock of the losses but also seeing how common such 'perfect' melt and export conditions are across the basin. They found that they cycled around on a 10 to 20 year cycle with the last two ,before 07', having only ten year spacing's.

Does this mean we should expect the return of 'The perfect melt storm' in 2017?

Well I do not think that we are talking about the same Basin any more? Summer open water leads to high levels of cloudiness so making the type of high pressure dominated season now near impossible. If it were to return then we really would be looking at an ice free basin by August!!!

¤=[Post Update]=¤

A bit better here.... lol
merci



Sadly most folk rely upon their Social media feeds or favourite Forum to keep them 'informed'. They do not check sources or expand searches and so appear to have a 'Flavour of the moment' to their opinions depending on just which new Papaer is being spun that week?

Sea level rise come from 2 places;

Thermal expansion of the Oceans and ice melt.

Thermal expansion is easy. you know the volumes of water and you know then temps and you know what an increase of 'x' degrees will cause in terms of expansion of that volume of water. It never changes.

Ice melt. Bit tricky that one.

Year on year our understanding of the mechanics of ice loss improves so year on year the extremes between max and min to be expected widen. All this does is ,year on year, raise the 'average increases' we should expect and foreshorten the timescale of those changes?

Because we have not seen any 'epic collapse' ( yet) of an ocean terminating glacier yet folk on the whole do not seem concerned about Sea level change? They talk about it but it is asll a dim ,distant event beyond their understanding. See and Ocean terminating Glacier suddenly retreat 15km up valley and the catastrophic 'float off' of the ice beyond ( as the ocean water flows down slope into the central Greenland basin where it begins the breakup of the ice dome above) and then folk might realise the peril of losing oil terminals overnight or off loading areas for cargo ships!

[Hervé]

Sea levels falling in Australia (https://www.iceagenow.info/sea-levels-falling-australia/)

By (https://www.iceagenow.info/sea-levels-falling-australia/)Robert (https://www.iceagenow.info/author/xilef/) March 18, 2017 (https://www.iceagenow.info/sea-levels-falling-australia/)

Sea levels are rising because of global warming … and sea levels are falling because of global warming. Hmmmm.

13 Mar 2017 – Thousands of hectares of mangroves (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mangrove) in Australia’s remote north “died of thirst” last year, scientists announced today,

According to researchers from Australia’s James Cook University, some 7,400 hectares (18,000 acres), stretching 1,000 km (600 miles) across the semi-arid Gulf of Carpentaria, perished,

The area where mangroves are either dead or defoliated “was confirmed by aerial and satellite surveys, with subsequent analysis of weather and climate records leading to the conclusion that they died of thirst.”

World-renowned mangrove ecologist Norm Duke, from James Cook University, said three factors came together to produce the event.

Those factors included below-average rainfall in the area, temperatures at record levels in the area and thirdly, “some mangroves were left high and dry as the sea level dropped about 20 centimetres (eight inches) during a particularly strong El Nino.” (Emphasis added)

So there you have it: High temperatures can cause sea-level rises in one part of the world while causing sea-level declines in other parts of the world. How convenient.

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Huge_swathe_of_Australian_mangroves_die_of_thirst_999.html

Thanks to Stephen Bird and Laurel for this link

I may have read a bigger load of bull****,” says Laurel. “I just cant remember when;-) Tell me how an ocean manages an 8 INCH drop in one coastline only????”

[DeDukshyn]

...

World-renowned mangrove ecologist Norm Duke, from James Cook University, said three factors came together to produce the event.

Those factors included below-average rainfall in the area, temperatures at record levels in the area and thirdly, “some mangroves were left high and dry as the sea level dropped about 20 centimetres (eight inches) during a particularly strong El Nino.” (Emphasis added)

[I]So there you have it: High temperatures can cause sea-level rises in one part of the world while causing sea-level declines in other parts of the world. How convenient.

...


I'm pretty sure the global weather cycles of el Nino and el Nina do cause measurable variations in sea levels differently in different parts of the world. I'll leave the "global warming" argument out - I'm not going to argue that point.

https://static.skepticalscience.com/pics/sealevelseasonfluctuation.jpg


Note that when the North is high the South is low and vice versa; and, the cycles are exactly aligned with el Nino and el Nina. The overall trend is rising.

That established, a 20cm drop seems an excessive amount to fully attribute to el Nino. Do we have an alternate, more simple explanation for the massive mangrove die-off? Maybe its something just overlooked.


Anyway, I grabbed that chart from this article. Not definitive, but an interesting read ... https://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-fall-2010-intermediate.htm

[Rocky_Shorz]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-MnWaIsLsU

[DeDukshyn]

... <trimmed video> ...

I am one who can personally attest to the rapid rate of glacial decline in Canada. Not because I read it on some global warming website, but because I live just beyond the foothills of the Canadian Rockies - I see them everyday. Every time I travel home to visit family I have to drive completely through them - I make the trip at least once per year. I have climbed to Berg lake and up onto Robson glacier on Mt. Robson and have seen the massive shrinkage of the Robson glacier (many kms) in recent pics compared to when I was there. So I can attest, at least in the south western part of Canada, the mountain glaciers are generally dramatically receding.

[Hervé]

Do we have an alternate, more simple explanation for the massive mangrove die-off? Maybe its something just overlooked.
It's called uplifting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_uplift)...


From here:
[...]

================================================== ==

As for "sea level," see this post here: Rising Sea Level and the Coming Coastal Crisis 2015 (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?87135-Rising-Sea-Level-and-the-Coming-Coastal-Crisis-2015&p=1026191&viewfull=1#post1026191) where, depending on one's choice for a reference frame, one could as well scream this kind of Doom-&-Gloom sort of headlines:

"Holy sh**! WHERE did all the Water GO!?"


http://www.sott.net/image/s14/286270/full/crete_quakes_image_1_1024x575.jpg
© Vasiliki Mouslopoulou, GFZ Scientists look for remnants of paleo shorelines on western Crete. Red and blue arrows indicate paleo shorelines formed during the last 2,000 years and are today elevated up to 8 meters (26 feet).

... because land masses do subside (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?91471-San-Andreas-Ups-Downs&p=1076369&viewfull=1#post1076369) or crop up (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_uplift) mostly due to geotectonics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_subsidence) but also from man-made (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundwater-related_subsidence) interferences: Sinking Grounds... Not Rising Waters (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?91560-Sinking-Grounds...-Not-Rising-Waters.&p=1077680&viewfull=1#post1077680).

[Rocky_Shorz]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyzJgaUX6cM


Trump's Mar a Lago

http://m.motherjones.com/files/maralago670.jpg

Estimated 30 years until it is under water 220 days a year...

That report doesn't calculate in the drastic jumps to all time high temps these last 3 years, if it continues, it could be 3-5 years

One of the articals said he paid almost $500k in taxes knowing a large portion of it was going to preparing for rising sea levels from climate change...


Several of Trump's property through the looking glass...

Mar-a-Lagoon


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUqxhYJqGhU

[Hervé]

From here:
Posted by Hervé (here) (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?p=1088866#post1088866)
Sea level is sea level and if some grounds show subsidence whereas others show uplifts (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_uplift) for the same period... time to scratch one's head!

If there actually were sea level rises, it would be uniform across the globe. So, how come I don't see the same amount of sea rise on the coast I live nearby?

Simple: sea level is sea level and therefore, the islands used as text-book case for sea level rise are actually sinking! The similarity of the end results is what is played on to confuse people on the "global warming" political agenda.

In that same vein, there is also a confusion that's being kept alive for political and "intelligence" reasons and that's the use of the term "climate change" instead of the more accurate term of "weather change"... see? Because "weather" is very controllable whereas "climate" leaves one with the impression one cannot do anything about it because it's too "big" and "natural."
Coral islands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_uplift#Coral_islands)
In a few cases, tectonic uplift can be seen in the cases of coral islands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_island). This is evidenced by the presence of various oceanic islands composed entirely of coral (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral), which otherwise appear to be high islands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_island) (i.e., islands of volcanic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic) origin). Examples of such islands are found in the Pacific (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Islands), notably the three phosphate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphate) islets (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islet), Nauru (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru), Makatea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makatea), and Banaba (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banaba_Island) as well as Maré (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%A9_Island) and Lifou (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifou) in New-Caledonia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New-Caledonia), Fatu Huku (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatu_Huku) in the Marquesas Islands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marquesas_Islands) and Henderson Island (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henderson_Island_%28Pitcairn_Islands%29) in the Pitcairn Islands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitcairn_Islands). The uplift of these islands is the result of the movement of oceanic tectonic plates. Sunken islands or guyots (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyot) with their coral reefs are the result of crustal subsidence as the oceanic plate carries the islands to deeper or lower oceanic crust areas.

[GrayWolfBG]

The U.S. and europe need to pay more heed to the gravitational impacts of the great ice sheets on the adjacent Oceans? Loss of mass sacross them leads to waters slumping back into the rest of the oceans so we have a fair bit of sea level rise just from the reorganisation of the waters already in the oceans even before we allow more land ice to melt into it.

Anyone who thinks that sea level is a flat thing around the planet has some updating of their world view ahead of them!!!

Anyhoo's, I think it safe to call March 6th Sea ice max for the winter freeze season? This is another record low year across all measures and with even less FDD's than last winter!!!

[Rocky_Shorz]

Tsunami hits Iran, no earthquakes to cause it, just storm surge.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYDxzLR9efw

[Rocky_Shorz]

Methane is 28 times worse than co2 on Global warming.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rB-PpJjqS7w

You know, all of the videos mention east coasts of Continents are experiencing rising tides, where West coasts seem all to be staying the same, one other part of expanding oceans, it could be accelerating the spin of the earth.

Earth spins to the East, if we went faster, even by a smidge, the water would shift towards the east coasts. Should melting glaciers speed us up, or slow us down?

[Hervé]

Methane bubbles?

... or pingos (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pingo):


http://www.arctic.uoguelph.ca/cpe/environments/land/features/pingo_xsec.jpg

https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/13/181613-004-31BC09C3.jpg

http://www.arctic.uoguelph.ca/cpe/environments/land/landforms/pingo.jpg

https://i2.wp.com/jemimapett.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Pingos-NWT.png?fit=501%2C333&w=640

https://tce-live2.s3.amazonaws.com/media/media/5e658751-a56e-4535-9950-f641ec565a97.jpg

http://cdn.yjc.ir/files/fa/news/1392/10/14/1893110_249.jpg

http://lh5.ggpht.com/-yJ-NKzuDlt4/UsaMJu6QmKI/AAAAAAAAu24/ZJ35Hvviabw/pingo-4%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800

https://alappaa.ca/sites/alappaa/files/styles/colorbox/public/gallery/photo_by_maureen_pokiak_-_ibyuk_pingos_0.jpg?itok=QIChA1DL

http://icestories.exploratorium.edu/dispatches/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/042_ice5_amy.jpg

[GrayWolfBG]

Pingo's are an ice feature and so would be an odd thing to find growing in a region that is in meltdown!

The funnels, found across Yamal over recent years, were pushed as being collapsed pingo's but again they are a feature that herders did not see before a couple of years ago. I'd imagine nomads would have a pretty extensive knowledge of the lands they roam esp. any dangerous ( for man and beast!) features.

No matter. This summer will continue the rapid thaw of the region and may well be the one where we see our first 'methane burp' over the melt season proper. Methane , in the short term, is over 100 times more impacting than CO2. Over a 100 year period that drops to 26 times more powerful. Once it degrades it ends up as CO2 so its an gift that just keeps on giving!

March was the warmest ever recorded March across the Arctic circle so the melt Season is off to the worst possible start! With record low volume and record high temps what do we expect as an outcome?

Ice volume will peak this month so we will know what the new record low is but fag packet calcs tell us that an 'average' volume loss over summer will leave us with just 1,000 km3 of ice in the Arctic Basin!!! ...... and of course we can expect the return of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic from this year onward.....

Since 07' I have been warning of the outcome of the return of the 07' synoptics as I feared it would drive us ice free come September. over this period I have seen the 'need' for a perfect melt storm to take all our ice recede as 'average' weather melt seasons now match the lows that 07' produced. A perfect melt storm would now just mean even longer with open water under sun.

Remember a 1cm cube of ice takes 70 calories to melt . A 1cm cube of water would warm 1c with 1 calorie of energy.