WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

Bad error gateway messages and 'forbidden access' messages prevent one from going direct via Wikileaks home page, but this link here shows this now quite famous cable in its entirety.

The particularly poignant paragraph is numbered 5

Source: https://wikileaks.jcvignoli.com/cable_08MOSCOW265

5. (C) Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations not only touch
a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about
the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does
Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine
Russia's influence in the region, but it also fears
unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would
seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us
that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions
in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the
ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a
major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In
that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to

intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.

More Twitter accounts that report Russian side are being restricted but here’s this for now,
Wagner had reported that some chemical weapon was being used on them just a while back, so here’s more evidence before the tweet gets restricted.


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Early on this am,

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/st...68391121068032

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1613557896939290630

https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/s...97938520440833

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/st...66784166133762

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1613560070305898496

https://www.rt.com/russia/569756-kre...sive-continue/

Kremlin gives update on major Donbass battle
Russia will continue its Donbass offensive, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday, after the country’s Defense Ministry reported that airborne troops had blocked the Ukrainian-held mining city of Soledar. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian private military company Wagner Group, later confirmed that his soldiers had completely seized the city.

“Truly gigantic work has been done,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. He described the fighting as “absolutely selfless, heroic actions not only in Soledar, but in many other areas where offensives are taking place.”

Peskov said the Russian advances would continue. “It is not the time to stop and celebrate. The main work still lies ahead of us.”

The fierce battle for Soledar, a city with a pre-conflict population of around 10,000, has been raging for several months. Prigozhin said in a statement to the media on Tuesday that his soldiers had managed to seize the “entire territory” of Soledar. He added the next day that Wagner fighters had begun clearing the city’s vast underground tunnel network.

Wagner group filmed in salt-mine tunnels of embattled Soledar READ MORE: Wagner group filmed in salt-mine tunnels of embattled Soledar
The Russian Defense Ministry said in its daily briefing on Wednesday that Russian airborne troops had blocked Soledar from the north and the south, while “assault units are fighting inside the city.”

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and the country’s general staff, meanwhile, claimed on Wednesday evening that the battle for Soledar was ongoing and the Donbass frontline was “still holding.”

Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine in late February, citing the need to defend the people of Donbass. The Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, together with two other former Ukrainian territories – Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions – became part of Russia after holding referendums in September. Crimea had done the same shortly after the 2014 coup in Kiev

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https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/st...47828340744193

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[url]https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/status/1613526220951486464

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[url]https://twitter.com/MoonofA/status/1613248140089384976

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/0...-breached.html

Ukrainian Defense Lines And What Happens When They Are Breached
January 11, 2023

Soledar has fallen to Russian troops. Bakhmut (Artymovsk) will follow soon.

This constitutes the breach of Ukraine's second defense line within the Donetzk and Lysichansk oblasts. I will discuss those lines with the maps below.

The first map shows the range of land taken by Russian forces by April 1 2022 (Kiev region not shown).

Russia had invaded with a small force of some 100,000 soldiers supported by some 50,000 soldiers of the Donetzk/Luhansk Republics. The opposing forces were 250,000 regular Ukrainian army troops which quickly grew to 450,000 and then 650,000 by mobilization of reserve forces plus the Territorial Defense Forces. During the first weeks the Russian forces had taken a huge amount of land that they barely had the numbers to hold.

At that point Russia was still hoping that the negotiations held at that time with Ukraine in Turkey would have a positive outcome. As a confidence measure it had already started to pull back from around Kiev. However, after phone calls from and a visit by the British prime minister Boris Johnson the Ukrainian government ended the negotiations by suddenly adding demands the Russia would never agree to. The troops from Kiev were pulled back anyway and moved to the east of Ukraine where they started an attack on the first defense line (yellow) of the Ukrainian forces.

This first defense line, like later ones, ran along railway and road communication routes that connect major cities. In the map above the cities that constituted the first defense line were, north to south, Siverodonetsk, Lysichansk, Popasna, Svitlodarsk.

By July 1 2022 the first Ukrainian defense line was breached and defeated by Russian forces. The Ukrainian troops moved back to their second defense line. However, the defeat of the first defense line had taken its toll of the small Russian Special Military Operation force.

The second Ukrainian defense line, north to south, ran from Siversk to Soledar, Bakhmut, New York agglomeration and then along the old ceasefire line of the Donetzk Republic.

The Russian forces tried to avoid a costly direct attack on the second Ukrainian defense line. It launched an operation to breach into the Donetzk oblast behind the second Ukrainian defense line from the north (now gray area). The battles for Izium and Lyman were fought for that purpose. However, the wooden area north of the Siversky Donets river that runs east to west as well as the river itself proved to be difficult to cross. Several attempts to move significant forces across it failed.

At the end of August 2022 the exhausted Russian forces had switched to a defensive posture and into an 'economy of force' mode. Troops that were holding the Kharkiv area north of the Donetzk oblast were reduced. The other forces were moved to the eastern front to strengthen the Russian lines on that front.

Meanwhile Ukraine was openly discussing and preparing for an attack on the Kherson region north of the Dnieper river with the final aim of crossing the river to then move towards Crimea. Russia responded by further reducing the troop numbers in the northern Kharkiv region to a few thousand men and by using the others to further strengthen its positions in the south around Kherson.

During the fall the Ukrainian attacks on the Kherson region all failed with high losses. However U.S. intelligence advised the Ukrainian command that the Kharkiv region, while still held by Russian forces, was practically empty. The command switched the active front towards the north and successfully moved into the Kharkiv region while Russian troops still positioned there moved further east.

This was a quite fast operation that looked very successful. But the speed also meant that the heavy Ukrainian artillery cover was thin to not existent. This while the retreating Russian forces used their own artillery to attack Ukrainian front formations in pre-planned fire missions. After proceeding fast over some 70 kilometers from west to east the Ukrainian attack force had taken high losses and ran out of steam. It came up to a new Russian defense line (red) covered by two rivers that proved difficult to cross. The Kharkiv front has since stabilized.


The Ukrainian 'victory' in the Kharkiv region gave the Russian government the necessary public backing for the mobilization of additional forces. 300,000 reservists were called up. Some 70,000 additional men joined as volunteers. The Wagner private military company increased its force size to some 50,000 men. Over the last three month of 2022 all those forces were supplied with the necessary equipment and went through refresher training.

Meanwhile a new Russian commander, General Sergey Surovkin, took over. He warned immediately that he would have to take some difficult decisions. This was related to the situation in the Kherson region north of the Dnieper. Constant attacks on the river crossings with U.S. supplied missiles made the logistic situation very difficult. The command decided to pull back behind the river. This operation was remarkably successful. Ten thousands of civilians plus some 25,000 soldiers with all their equipment were removed from the area with only few if any losses.

By the end of the year the shortening of the front lines and the introduction of fresh forces had allowed the Russian forces to regain the initiative. They launched intense attacks on Ukraine's second defense line. With the successful taking of Soledar that line has now been breached. This makes the situation of Siversk, north of Soledar, and of Bakhmut, south of it, much more difficult. No Ukrainian troops or materials can now be moved on the roads and railways that were part of the line. The breach of the line will allow Russian troops to move west of it to the north and the south to then create cauldrons for the other positions within that same line. 'Rolling up a defense line' is a description of that process.

The now heavily reduced Ukrainian forces will likely have to give up on holding the second defense line to then create a third one to the west of it.

The third Ukrainian defense line will run from Sloviansk in the north through Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostantinovka to the New York agglomeration. I expect the complete defeat and cleanup of the second Ukrainian defense line by the end of March. The third Ukrainian defense line will probably fall by the mid of the year. Whatever is left of the Ukrainian forces will then try to hold a fourth defense line along the string of smaller towns west of it.

This will be the last Ukrainian line in the Donetsk oblast. It likely to fall before by the end of September.

The Russian moves against the third and fourth Ukrainian defense lines will likely be supported by a move from the south that will liberate the rest of the Zaporiziha and Donetsk oblast.

Aside from those operations the Russian command has sufficient number of troops available to run another major attack. This could come from the north into the Kharkiv regain behind the Ukrainian troops currently attacking the Russian lines further east.

The Russian forces in Ukraine were tasked with liberating the oblast that Russia had recognized as independent states (Donetzk and Luhansk) as well as those that had additionally voted to become part of Russia (Zaporiziha and Kherson).

With the breaking up of all four Ukrainian defense lines in Donetzk oblast that task will be fulfilled. This with the exception of the part of the Kherson region north of the Dnieper river which will require a separate operation on its own. The Russian command may want to wait for this until more Ukrainian forces have been destroyed while holding their defense lines.

Another task given to the Special Military operation was to 'demilitarize' and 'denazify' Ukraine. The Ukrainian tactic of holding fixed lines anchored on major cities at any price has come at a significant cost. Russian artillery is superior to the Ukrainian by a factor of ten. The Russian forces use it to destroy Ukrainian troops holding the lines while taking only few losses on their own side.

Today's Wall Street Journal finally noted that this Ukrainian battle tactic is not a winning one:

Western—and some Ukrainian—officials, soldiers and analysts increasingly worry that Kyiv has allowed itself to be sucked into the battle for Bakhmut on Russian terms, losing the forces it needs for a planned spring offensive as it stubbornly clings to a town of limited strategic relevance. Some of them say that it would make sense to retreat to a new defensive line on the heights west of Bakhmut while such a pullback can still be organized in a coordinated fashion, preserving the Ukrainian military’s combat strength.
“It’s not me, it’s King Leonidas who figured out that you should fight the enemy on the terrain that is advantageous to you,” said one Ukrainian commander in Bakhmut, referring to the ruler of Sparta who battled the Persian Empire at Thermopylae. “So far, the exchange rate of trading our lives for theirs favors the Russians. If this goes on like this, we could run out.”

The Ukrainian soldier is right. However, a different form of fighting the war would be a mobile delay and retreat action from which local counter offensives would be launched. This requires a lot of equipment, battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, that the Ukraine no longer has. It also requires troops and larger formations trained for that type of fight. Some 60 year old mailman drafted during Ukraine's 9th mobilization wave will not be able to learn this during his two weeks training course.

Had the professional Ukrainian army that exited before the war been allowed to give up on cities and had it used a mobile combined arms tactic of delay-retreat-counterattack it probably would have been more successful. But that army has by now been destroy with Russian artillery because Kiev insisted on holding cities and lines at any price.

The U.S. will only now start to train Ukrainian troops in combined arms and joint maneuvering. It will be too little too late to make any difference.

As of current news, today we see fake news headlines like this from NBC:

Putin replaces commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine after just 3 months
Valery Gerasimov takes over from Sergei Surovikin, who will now serve as one of his deputies, Russia's defense ministry said Wednesday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has replaced the commander leading his forces in Ukraine just three months after he handed him the job.
Gen. Valery Gerasimov will take over from Sergei Surovikin, the country’s defense ministry said on Telegram Wednesday, a change that comes as Kyiv warns Moscow is planning a major new offensive after months of battlefield setback.

The above is a misinterpretation of a simple naming change.

Russians With Attitude @RWApodcast - 16:09 UTC · Jan 11, 2023
As I understand it, we went from 1 to 2

https://www.moonofalabama.org/cdn-cg...i/lines7-s.jpg

Neither was Surovkin pushed aside or demoted nor was Gerasimov promoted to a new job. Surovkin will continue to run the theater force in Ukraine. This move did not change command responsibilities but lifted the importance of the whole operation by making it the highest military commander's priority.

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Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=sNPJrlFQL1o

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https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1613592897005158423

https://www.rt.com/news/569764-ukraine-peace-summit-un/

Ukraine reveals date for ‘peace summit’ without Russia
The Kiev government is pressing ahead with a “global peace summit,” Ukrainian ambassador to Türkiye Vasily Bodnar said on Thursday. The event will be held at the UN headquarters in New York on February 24, Bodnar told Anadolu Agency. Though Russia has said it was open to talks, there was no indication that it would be invited.

The event was first proposed last month by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, who said it would be based on a 10-point “peace plan” previously outlined by President Vladimir Zelensky and should coincide with the anniversary of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres said he would be ready to mediate such talks, but only if all parties agreed.

Ukraine, however, insisted that Russia must meet its conditions beforehand – including withdrawing to borders claimed by Kiev, paying reparations, and submitting to war crimes tribunals. Bodnar reiterated those conditions on Thursday, adding that Ukraine was fighting “a war for liberation and independence.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said repeatedly that he is open to talks on Ukraine, but that Kiev refuses to negotiate. As for preconditions, the very least Kiev must do is “recognize the reality on the ground,” including the new status of the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye as parts of Russia, the Kremlin has said.

Kremlin explains lack of peace talks on Ukraine
Kremlin explains lack of peace talks on Ukraine
On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reminded journalists that Kiev’s backers in the West had no intention of negotiating with Moscow.

“Under the circumstances, in which Westerners are apparently not prone to allowing Kiev any flexibility on the issue, we cannot say that there is any potential [for negotiations] at the moment,” he said.

There has been some diplomacy between Moscow and Kiev, however. Human rights commissioners from the two countries met in Ankara this week, on the sidelines of an international conference. Türkiye has also helped negotiate an arrangement for exporting Ukrainian grain through a safe shipping corridor in the Black Sea.

Peace talks held in Istanbul last March, however, fell through after the West informed Kiev they wanted the conflict to continue, according to Ukrainian media.

The Istanbul example “clearly shows that they were slapped on the hand and told: ‘It’s too soon, you haven’t exhausted Russia to the point we Americans think is enough’,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview last month.

https://tass.com/politics/1561505?ut...m_social_share


Russia to beef up forces to liberate Artyomovsk after taking control of Soledar — DPR

It is reported that fierce fighting is in progress in the vicinity of Artyomovsk

MOSCOW, January 12. /TASS/. After taking control of Soledar in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), the Russian military will beef up its troop strength on that front in order to liberate Artyomovsk (called Bakhmut in Ukraine), military-political expert Yan Gagin, adviser to the DPR leader, said.

"Now, following the taking of Soledar, rather serious forces will become available for Artyomovsk. Our armed forces will be bolstered precisely on that front to build on the successes already attained. Both Soledar and Artyomovsk are keys to Kramatorsk and the further advance, including Slavyansk. Both Slavyansk and Kramatorsk won’t be easy to storm because they [the Ukrainian army] were getting ready, all their forces retreated there and now they will boost their groups there," he told the Rossiya-1 TV channel on Thursday.

He added that these municipalities have morphed into fortress cities. "We will encounter similar fortress cities with a rather vast industrial zone and readied, multiple-layered defenses. Yet, by building on the triumphs now, I think, we will continue to be successful on that front in the future," the official said.

In the early hours on Wednesday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of Russia’s Wagner private military company, said that the city of Soledar was taken under control by the PMC’s units. On Wednesday, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov reported that Russian troops blocked Soledar in the north and south and clashes in the city were underway.

Fierce fighting is in progress in the vicinity of Artyomovsk. Earlier, acting head of the DPR Denis Pushilin said that Russia’s forces were systematically working on cutting off the supply routes of a Ukrainian group in that region and surrounding it. According to him, capturing this city will pave the way to liberating the republic’s northern zone. That said, the DPR and LPR repeatedly reported that the Ukrainian command keeps redeploying reinforcements to the Artyomovsk front but the Ukrainian units there still suffer substantial losses.

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https://tass.com/politics/1561475?ut...m_social_share

DPR says taking of Soledar allows direct fire at Artyomovsk[

Andrey Bayevsky also said control over Soledar was important from the perspective of isolating Artyomovsk

MOSCOW, January 12. /TASS/. Andrey Bayevsky, a lawmaker at the legislature of the Donetsk People’s Republic and a colonel of the People’s Militia, on Thursday said on Solovyov Live television that the main benefit of capturing Soledar is the opportunity to open direct fire on Artyomovsk.

"Seizing control of Soledar means direct sight of the highway from Slavyansk to Artyomovsk and the opportunity to fire on it practically directly," he said.

Bayevsky also said control over Soledar was important from the perspective of isolating Artyomovsk. It means "the cutting of supply routes for the Artyomovsk grouping and the cutting off of all opportunities to provide it with personnel and ammunition."

He described Soledar as an important step in in the assault on Artyomovsk.

"Soledar opens the way for artillery fire toward Slavyansk, Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka, let alone Artyomovsk. The targets that will be defined by the command will be hit with artillery fire. It’s extremely important for the softening of the enemy’s defense," Bayevsky said.

That would make it possible to take control of these settlements with fewer losses and ram through Ukrainian defenses faster, he said.

According to Bayevsky, Soledar is generally under Russian control while fighting with the remnants of Ukrainian forces still goes on.

Businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin said Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that Soledar, which had been at the center of battles in recent days, was seized by the fighters of the Wagner private military company. Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov said on Wednesday that Russian troops had blocked Soledar from the north and south and battles were raging inside the city.

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https://tass.com/politics/1561679


Over 150 residents of Soledar evacuated to DPR’s Shakhtersk, say authorities

A portion of the evacuated Soledar residents were sent to hospitals in Lugansk
DONETSK, January 12. /TASS/. Over 150 residents of Soledar have been evacuated to Shakhtersk in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), Mayor of Shakhtersk Alexander Shatov told TASS on Thursday.

"More than 150 people from Soledar have been evacuated to our city. Basically, these are people who were not seriously affected. They receive medical care, are accommodated and provided with food," Shatov said.

According to the mayor's information, some of the evacuated said they wanted to leave for other regions of Russia. The first group of 24 people will depart on January 13.

A portion of the evacuated Soledar residents were sent to hospitals in Lugansk, Shatov specified. "We are ready to provide the able-bodied population of the city with jobs at our enterprises. We will provide everything they need," he added.

Earlier, the emergencies ministry of the Lugansk People's Republic specified that an ambulance team took a three-year-old child with frostbite from Soledar to a hospital in the city of Stakhanov (LPR).

On Wednesday night, Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin reported that Soledar, where fighting has continued in recent days, was taken under the control of the Wagner private military company, and that a pocket had formed in the center of the city, where fighting was underway.

On Wednesday, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov said that Russian troops had blocked Soledar from the north and south, and fighting continued in the city.

According to Andrey Bayevsky, a lawmaker at the legislature of the Donetsk People’s Republic and a colonel of the People’s Militia, Soledar is generally under Russian control while fighting with the remnants of Ukrainian forces still goes on.

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https://tass.com/politics/1561481?ut...m_social_share

Putin to speak with IAEA chief Grossi if necessary — Kremlin

The last time that the Russian leader and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) met was in October 2022, in St. Petersburg

MOSCOW, January 12. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak with Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi if necessary, but such a meeting is currently not on the Russian president’s work schedule, Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

"There are no planned meetings on [Putin’s] schedule if we are speaking about Grossi," Peskov told journalists, adding that the Russian president and the IAEA chief agreed during their meeting in St. Petersburg last October "to carry on with the dialogue if necessary."

"This is why, if the need should arise and there is a corresponding request, a telephone conversation or a meeting is definitely possible," he said.

The last time that Putin and Grossi met was in October 2022, in St. Petersburg. The IAEA director general called relations with the Russian leader extremely important from the point of view of ensuring the safety of nuclear power facilities, including the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.

Peskov added that "Grossi’s key partners to talk to on the issue are [the Russian civilian nuclear power corporation] Rosatom and its Director General [Alexey] Likhacyov as well as the Russian Foreign Ministry."

The presidential spokesman noted that the situation regarding the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant "was still alarming," adding that the "Ukrainian side believes it is acceptable to keep shelling the plant."

IAEA head Grossi announced on Wednesday his plans to visit Ukraine next week and possibly travel to Russia afterwards, hinting at a meeting with Russian President Putin.

On December 2, 2022, IAEA Director General Grossi announced at the Mediterranean Dialogues international conference in Rome that an agreement on creating a security zone around the Zaporozhye NPP could be reached shortly.

Alexey Likhachyov, who heads Rosatom, the Russian civilian nuclear power corporation, earlier said that the security arrangement being discussed with Grossi ruled out any bombardments of the Zaporozhye nuke plant.

On November 17, 2022, the IAEA adopted a new resolution on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, calling on Russia "to immediately abandon its baseless claims of ownership of the plant." Russia and China voted against this resolution while India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, South Africa, Kenya and Namibia abstained from voting. Russia’s permanent mission in Vienna chided the IAEA’s resolution as going beyond the UN nuclear watchdog’s mandate.

The Zaporozhye nuclear plant, located in the town of Energodar, is the largest in Europe and has a capacity of about 6,000 MW. It used to generate a quarter of all electric power in Ukraine. In March 2022, the Zaporozhye facility was placed under the Russian army’s control. Since then, the Ukrainian military has been periodically bombarding both Energodar’s residential quarters and the premises of the Zaporozhye nuke plant, employing drones, heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems.

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https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1613592897005158423

https://www.rt.com/news/569764-ukraine-peace-summit-un/

Ukraine reveals date for ‘peace summit’ without Russia

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The danger here, it seems clear to me, is that if such a thing is held and receives enough media support and applause from political talking heads (even if Russia, China, India, Iran and most of the global south all stay silent and uninvolved), this could 'justify' sending armed UN 'peacekeepers' to Ukraine which would be a backdoor way of formally and 'legally' getting American troops on the ground.

I've not posted about this personally, but I have quite a few serious, heavy-duty concerns about how all this might escalate this year (2023). As many analysts have pointed out (those who really understand all the facts in play!), it's increasingly hard to see a way that the US globalist neocons would back down and quietly admit defeat in the face of overwhelming Russian superiority and control in many areas both on and off the battlefield.

The ultimate risk is that the US might bring down everything around them rather than lose their global hegemony which they pathologically feel is somehow God-given. Last year I felt sure this could not happen, but now, for whatever reasons, I do find myself feeling the chances are no longer exactly zero.