WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

Various post Quoted... Putin just announced he will drop all charges against Prigozhin!

Putin is moving his chess pieces in place and the West thinks Prigozhin's coup weakens Putin or embarrassed him.

"Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov:
- Accusations were dropped against Prigozhin, who is leaving Russia for Belarus
- The people of Wagner who did not participate in the uprising will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense
- Wagner's fighters who participated were not charged
- & No change in leadership in the Russian army - Peskov"

So the Wagner's fighters who participated had already signed contracts with the Ministry of Defence!!!!

He and Putin scammed the CIA diversity hires....

Defend Soledar: failed
Defend Balhmut: failed
Counter offensive: failed
Wagner coup: failed

One thing is for sure, the western media have been utterly humiliated by this.

They jumped on these events with gleeful headlines like "Civil War in Russia", "Prigozhin's March on Moscow!", and "the End of Putin". Now they are having to backtrack and make sense of it all.

No one who thought it was a legit coup will admit they got played. Hilarious.

Yeah and the Russian officers in Wagner did nothing.

DPR did nothing.

Police did nothing.

Air Force, Army, etc.

It's theater.

What an extraordinary couple of days have just happened! (About which I would scarecely have known, were it not for Project Avalon and its stalwart posters).

I suspect that - even if some standard official narrative becomes a consensus - what really has been going-on will always remain a mystery, or more likely a subject of contention.

What is strange is that - over the past half day or so - there have been so many, such confident, narratives of what 'is' happening, or what has-happened - and usually that narrative fits exactly whatever prior ideology that person espoused! It's clear that most people's idea of understanding the world is pure projection - nothing that actually happens is ever allowed to disturb existing prejudices.

Yet, the extraordinary thing was that this seemed to come out of the blue, it did not seem to arise from the flow of larger events - except in the limited sense of Prigozhin's escalating and increasingly wild rhetoric over past weeks.

In other words; this was probably about individual persons - their choices and actions; therefore Not a consequence of the inexorable unfolding of abstract processes...

My current favourite notion is that this has been something like a Shakespearian tragedy; in which a 'great man' rose to be a national hero, with "the world at his feet' - but was driven by inner demons and personal flaws (on the basis that power both reveals such flaws, and corrupts in its own right) to destroy himself and his legacy in a matter of hours!

If something like this is the case, it may explain what looks like extraordinary magnanimity (so far, at this point) in the treatment of Prigozhin. It looks as if there is genuine sympathy for him, even from those whom he has attacked - as if Prighozin is regarded as a good man brought low by his demons; rather than that he was all-along merely a traitorous schemer whose true nature was suddenly revealed over the past couple of days.

Tragic hero or unmasked traitor?... At present it looks as if the authorities regard Prighozin as the former - or, at least, are giving him a chance to become so.

This may become clearer if Prighozin's 'madness' resolves, and he realizes the horribleness of what he has done and shows genuine humble remorse - and he performs acts of penance. I would suppose that something of that kind would be necessary to the Russian national mind.

At present, such repentance and apology seems not to have happened, the 'madness' continues, and the longer it goes on not happening the more it looks like P's personal nature always was selfish and scheming.

Having made an utterly wild, irrational, and fore-doomed grab at ultimate glory; in a mere moment, Prighozin made himself (potentially) that most odious of men - a backstabbing traitor out for personal gain, even in the existential national crisis of war.

But from a 'Shakespearian tragedy' perspective, I hope that P does sober-up and recognize the magnitude of the crime against his country he has perpetrated. That would make a story for the ages!

At present, and for a short while only; Prighozin's fate through the ages lies in his own hands, or heart. This is a very public test of character - with unavoidable and permanent consequences. That is the fascination for me. It is easy to forget that individuals make a difference, for better and worse; and that therefore even large scale events may be unpredictable and surprising. Ordinary people are probably better at noticing such realities, than are intellectuals.

(Admins delete this post if it is already posted):

• BROKEN PROMISES: Putin Says He Doubts a Ukraine Peace Agreement is Possible

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=da_6PF7fO90

Nicolai Petro is Professor of Politics at the University of Rhode Island and the author of the recently published book, The Tragedy of Ukraine. He served in the State Department in 1990 and was a Fulbright Scholar in Ukraine 2013-2014 degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9783110743371/html

Many wise and sensible comments from members here about the extraordinary events over the last two days. Whatever the actual case really was these are interesting comments too. Troop movements under the guise of a 'coup'?

Source: https://twitter.com/its_maria012/sta...82605874872320

Text: (via AussieCossack)

George Galloway Retweeted
MARIA
@its_maria012
❗️Putin is an absolute master of 5D chess. The results of the so called "coup d'état" are:

🇷🇺24th June: Wagner was 200km from Moscow.

🇺🇦25th June: Wagner is 100km from Kiev.

⚡️This is some next level Sun Tzu Art of war tactics by Putin. Genius. 👏

-AussieCossack

And from Will Schryver:

Source: https://twitter.com/imetatronink/sta...93196990865408

Text:

Given the fact that — apparently — Prigozhin is not being arrested, and PMC Wagner is being deployed to the front lines in Belarus, I think we can confidently conclude that this whole thing WAS a psyop of some sort. Most likely a counter-intel operation to smoke out traitors.

There's definitely a Psy-Op element to this; witness also the western media outlets going into a near meltdown about there being no 'coup', which has given me an admittedly very wry smile all morning thus far.

Whither Prigozhin? That remains to be seen of course. But I hope for a humane outcome along the lines of Bruce's most recent post. Shake-spearian? And some :)

Here's some 'aftermath':

Text:

🤚⚔️🇺🇦 Wagner could lead attack on Kiev from Belarus, British general warns - Sky News (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-r...#liveblog-body)

"Ukraine's leaders must guard against a possible attack led by Yevgeny Prigozhin launched at Kyiv from Belarus", General Lord Richard Dannatt tells Trevor Phillips on Sky News.

"The fact that he's gone to Belarus is a matter of some concern," said the former British Army chief of general staff.

If he has "kept an effective fighting force around him then he presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv", where the war began, he said.

Lord Dannatt said it "is quite possible" that Russia may use the Wagner Group to try and take Kyiv again.

"The aftershocks of yesterday will reverberate for quite some time."
Nonetheless, there were no immediate "winners" from "yesterday's fiasco", he said.

"Putin is definitely much diminished. The Russian military... is clearly in some disarray," said Lord Dannatt."

Who wants the British media to be right at least once?

@DDGeopolitics

Source: https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/70812



Apart from the usual western guff about 'disarray', 'weakened' etc.. which we've grown accustomed to, for once it does seem as if some sense is emanating from the mouths of some British militarists.

Hello,

Seems to be a Psy-Op and or a dark comedy.

Russia: We need to do something now with Ukraine, we can't let the Controllers come right into our house and control us.
Prigozhin: Agreed.
Prigozhin: Not happy with X.
Russia: Ok here.
Prigozhin: Still not happy with X.
Russia: Fine, here.
Prigozhin: Still not happy.
Russia: Really? REALLY?
Prigozhin: OK I am coming back to Russia and come to Moscow.
Russia: LOL.
WEST: OMG GOD, YES YES YES YES YES YES, PLEASE YES YES.
Prigozhin: Look at me, inside Russia and i am not happy.
WEST: URGENT MEETING NOW, IS THIS REAL, PLEASE BE REAL.
Russia: Lets take some photographs and videos of them in shops and in the street.
WEST: Please do not be deepfakes.
Prigozhin: I am 100 KM from Moscow.
WEST: TELL UKRAINE to get READY!
Russia: Thats fine Prigozhin, see you soon pal, not like we could not stop from before you even entered.
Prigozhin: I am now leaving and will be moving to Belarus.
Russia: Aww, leaving so soon? Hope you enjoyed your stay.
Russia: More Photographs and Videos of Prigozhin now be treating like a Celebrity please. Will make the WEST very annoyed.
WEST: Did Russia rick roll us?

Quote:

---

Posted by Hamish

Seems to be a Psy-Op and or a dark comedy.

---

I may be wrong, but I don't think it was. (Though there's intense speculation everywhere, including on Russian social media.)

But this was interesting. IF US intel knew about this, Russia would have known about it too. The text reads:

~~~

CNN: US intelligence knew about Prigozhin's plans a few days before the start of the rebellion

Prigozhin has been preparing for this for quite a long time, stockpiling weapons and ammunition.

A source familiar with the intelligence told CNN that "it all happened very quickly" and it was difficult to understand how seriously the head of the PMC took the threats to the Russian military, and where he would direct his forces.

US intelligence briefed Congressional leaders about "potentially disturbing" movements of Wagner PMCs and accumulations of equipment near Russia's borders in recent days.

CNN reported a few hours before: Western officials were "taken by surprise" by events in Russia. US and European intelligence did not suggest that Prigozhin's private army could go to the Russian regions, although CNN sources believe that it could take several days to prepare for the rebellion.

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/34312

After 2 later post from Tintin, its clear master move in 5D military chess...

The 2 most feared war units; Wagner and Chechens are reunited 100km from Kiev!

Its a must than a clear signal for the enemy, the end is near...for Kiev and for the next NATO summit...

the begin this kabuki theater reminded me this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_S...27état_attempt

what not been said in this article is that the people involved in coup d'état attempt was that they were deluded, in the
belief that the King was by their side(5D chess)
Result was in smoking out all involved (military and civil) coup d'état attempt involved. :clapping:

Now the king is the savior... god save the King! bla, bla ...again... :sherlock:

Quote:

---

Posted by Bill Ryan

Calm down, folks, nothing's going to happen here. :)
[ ... ]
I was going to go for a mountain hike tomorrow (Saturday), but I'm thinking I'll probably stay at my desk instead as it might be quite an interesting day.
[ ... ]
I'll postpone my hike to Sunday, because by then all this will have largely blown over.

---

So, yes — I'm going on my hike today instead. :) I'm confident the 36-hour drama is over, except for all the intense speculation about what the heck really happened which will surely continue for quite a while.

Quote:

---

Posted by Bill Ryan

Quote:

---

Posted by Bill Ryan

Calm down, folks, nothing's going to happen here. :)
[ ... ]
I was going to go for a mountain hike tomorrow (Saturday), but I'm thinking I'll probably stay at my desk instead as it might be quite an interesting day.
[ ... ]
I'll postpone my hike to Sunday, because by then all this will have largely blown over.

---

So, yes — I'm going on my hike today instead. :) I'm confident the 36-hour drama is over, except for all the intense speculation about what the heck really happened which will surely continue for quite a while.

---

One here for the Great Quotes thread, perhaps, being appropriated to these recent events:

“If you cannot understand someone's actions, look at the consequences and infer the motive.”

- - Carl Jung

...

... how 'bout the puppeteers:

Mike Stone - Thank Putin for Stopping the COVID Hoax

June 24, 2023

https://henrymakow.com/roth-ukr.JPG

Full article: https://henrymakow.com/2023/06/mike-...tin-for-s.html

Andrei Martyanov who never pulls his punches has never had much good to say about Wagner - he's always been very consistent with that - effectively says, that, they are "..scum of the earth..", and that those that backed the 'mutiny' are "..dead men walking.." He also reminds us that mercenary groups are exactly that and that Wagner will comprise 5th and 6th columnists.

Of interest were his comments about Prigozhin who has apparently done two prison sentences previously - I never knew that.

This is fairly short, around 17mins or so, and put together under some light pressure from his followers eager to hear what his take is on all this. The takeaway essentially being that this is good for the Russian military in the long run.

Here it is, for those of you interested, recorded June 24th:

Some Points To Consider

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=0rpi3ibN0o4

Ukraine War - Is Moscow Lying? w/Col Doug Macgregor

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=UB_j0vb6iXc

Helpful note from Bill:
Macgregor is as astute as always here, but this was published before Prigozhyn's mutiny on Friday. He'll be on again with Judge Napolitano very soon, for sure, and I'll be more than interested to hear what he has to say.
:thumbsup:

Text:
🪖 Versions of what is behind the Wagner PMC campaign against Moscow

⚫️ Prigozhin's rebellion and its true goals, a day later, are still overgrown with all sorts of versions. The VChK-OGPU channel offers its own vision of events:

▪️ Source #1: “Prigozhin is extremely devoted to Putin. One of the beneficiaries of the Wagner PMC is Dyumin, Putin's former personal bodyguard. Putin first PUBLICLY promises to punish Prigozhin, and then forgives. Play. And Putin now has the opportunity to get rid of the generals, including Shoigu, who in other circumstances he could not remove due to personal friendly relations, his own obligations. The march showed who is, who is in his entourage.”

▪️ Source #2: “It is persistently said that before the march, Prigozhin could not meet with Putin for two months, despite repeated attempts. Putin's entourage, which supports Shoigu, blocked all these attempts. And all this time, measures were really being prepared to destroy part of the Wagner and Prigozhin himself. Prigogine had no other choice. He expected that after the start of the march, Putin would take his side. But Shoigu, hastily leaving Rostov, managed to quickly get to Putin.

Ostashko! Important - subscribe. We work around the clock

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...48857733365760

Text:
Irina Kuksenkova, a journalist from the Russian First Channel, tells the details of how Wagner rebels shot down an IL-22 aircraft of the Russian army yesterday.

Says 10 people died on board.

“When Prigozhin was already asked at the headquarters of the Southern Military District why, because this plane does not strike, but performs other functions, he said - and the fool anti-aircraft in the convoy shot down everything that took off,” Kuksenkova wrote.

Prigozhin promised to pay 50 million rubles to the families of the dead pilots.

Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+B6ixfOM5VkxhODQx

@Slavyangrad
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...94925963239425

Quote:

---

Posted by Bill Ryan

Quote:

---

Posted by Hamish

Seems to be a Psy-Op and or a dark comedy.

---

I may be wrong, but I don't think it was. (Though there's intense speculation everywhere, including on Russian social media.)

But this was interesting. IF US intel knew about this, Russia would have known about it too. The text reads:

CNN: US intelligence knew about Prigozhin's plans a few days before the start of the rebellion

[...]

---

This is interesting too, from John Helmer in Moscow:

• https://johnhelmer.net/from-pugachev...ca/#more-88230

(extract from the article)

A well-informed Moscow source says: “The whole thing was planned for several weeks. Soldiers and unit sergeants might be on board. Officers, obviously not. That makes it a mutiny against commanders. I do not think Prigozhin will go quietly. He will try and romanticize himself as a Pugachev and his assassins as peasants defending Russia from oligarchs. Questions will be asked when and which men were already inside of Rostov Military HQ. Perhaps some advance parties were inside."

https://twitter.com/Ewol81648883/sta...46467420487680

Quote:

---

Posted by Ravenlocke

Irina Kuksenkova, a journalist from the Russian First Channel, tells the details of how Wagner rebels shot down an IL-22 aircraft of the Russian army yesterday. Says 10 people died on board.

---

There have been many reports about this, including that it was an accident and that Prigozhyn will pay 50 million rubles compensation to each of the family members.

But I'll be unconvinced until I hear something definitive from the Russian MoD or other official sources. (Others say that a Russian helicopter was shot down as well, btw, with some claims of casualties in other incidents.)

Apparently there are some videos, but nothing at all (yet) that shows that these incidents happened (a) inside Russia, or (b) that Wagner really was responsible. It'll be interesting, and maybe important, to see what clear truth emerges.

:flower:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=p_o_43QY4Jk

Interesting and useful thoughts from Aleks at Black Mountain Analysis. (Personally, I still think that Aleks' third possibility is correct, that "Prigozhin simply lost his mind".)

Probably wisely, Aleks says he may have to wait a whole month before coming to a firm conclusion. :)

• https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/united-russia

United Russia

Hello community,
This will be a quick update.

The rule of thumb to wait 48 hours before reaching any conclusions, when something major happens, was right again. We have now more clarity in a broader sense. Nevertheless, I consider that it was the right thing to do to conduct that public brainstorming with you all. And I enjoyed it. Thank you again.

When I wrote yesterday my article (it took me 3 hours) the news came out that a deal has been reached between Prigozhin and President Lukashenko of Belarus. I do not want to speculate too much about that deal. Yes, there are circulating suggestions what the detail entails. But we can be sure, whatever information reaches the surface, it is only for the public. We will need to wait some time (days/weeks) to see the impact on the ground.

Bottom line is: Prigozhin goes to exile to Belarus with some of the Wagner fighters. Most Wagner fighters will be disarmed, interrogated and if they did not commit any major crime, incorporated into the Russian army. The march on Moscow is over.

In my last article I suggested four theories.

It turns out that the fourth theory could be what we are witnessing. The “Sacrifice” scenario. Prigozhin seems to have turned Wagner in the direction of Moscow and sacrificed either his name or his life (it remains to be seen) for whatever is to come next. Also, as I wrote, either planned (voluntarily) or unplanned (the “He screwed up” scenario).

He could have done that on the behalf of one of the following three parties:

• The West (CIA/MI6)
  This would imply that Prigozhin was recruited by the West and activated to destroy/interrupt the supply chain and chain of command for the defensive battle in Zaporozhe.
  
  Here we have two sub scenarios:
  1. He genuinely was recruited and screwed up to achieve the goals of CIA/MI6.
  2. He was contacted by the CIA/MI6, contacted his superiors in GRU and a strategy was designed to ruse the West. This scenario would foresee, that the West would have planned with a collapse of the Russia supply lines yesterday and therefore would launch a large-scale assault. Russia in turned had foreseen this, planned accordingly and staged large troop movements to Ukraine’s north, for whatever reason.
• A Russian intelligence service (GRU most likely, for military activities)
  Here, I also see two sub scenarios:
  1. Essentially, the same story as the second point in the first scenario. Only, without foreign interference. Maybe, with further domestical goals, such as spy hunts, harsher laws etc.
  2. Here we come to Sun Tzu again and his “Chapter 13”. Prigozhin(for real or as a “honey pot”), and maybe several more officials could have planned a real coup. Because of dissatisfaction with the SMO approach. And the GRU monitored it all the time and only waited for it to kick off. Everything has been ended within a day, because the GRU had plenty time to collect all information. In this scenario, the GRU waited to collect and find as much traitors within the own ranks as well as foreign agents as possible. When it started, all parties involved showed their faces and conducted crimes of treason. The cases can be made. All were caught within a day. Traitors/Conspirators within the:
     • Military
     • Intelligence
     • Politics
     • Foreign agents all across the country
     There could also be some military objectives in this sub-scenario. But I focused on the more important issues.
     
• Prigozhin simply lost his mind
  As described in my former article, Prigozhin simply could have lost his nerves and did the wrong decision. And he realized in time that he screwed up and ended the process.

Which scenario is now the most likely? Again, this is still to early to come to any conclusions. We are still in the “public brainstorming” phase. Please, do not consider this article as any kind of conclusion or what have you. I will write a proper analysis in a month or so, when everything is clear.

But, for the time being I think that we have a mix of several of the abovementioned scenarios. Moreover, I think that the main scenario two (Russian military intelligence) and sub scenario two (traitor hunt) could be the base scenario. Of course, this scenario could utilize the advantages of several of the other scenarios with respect to military movements.

Well, enough brainstormed. This was my last public brainstorming with regards to this topic. Since things calmed down, I will now finally enjoy what is left of my weekend with my family. There won’t be any further brainstorming article for this topic.

I’d like to leave you with some analysis of people that I respect a lot:

• For intelligence topics I value the opinion of Larry Johnson the most. He wrote a very interesting article. Here is the link, check it out.
• Andrei Martyanov is a great military analyst and has plenty sources within Russia. He also wrote a very interesting piece about the deal between Prigozhin and President Lukashenko of Belarus.
  Moreover, he talked in his podcast about it.
  https://youtu.be/0rpi3ibN0o4
• Scott Ritter is a fantastic analyst of all kinds of military and intelligence topics. He explained with Judge Napolitano the CIA/MI6 scenario here:
  https://youtu.be/PE2IqsAO-2M

Moreover, he wrote on his Substack about the events.

One first conclusion is possible now. Whatever happened, one consequence is clear. A consolidation in Russia. A united Russia. And with a little cynicism… A purged Russia. (Assessing the reality is not equal to endorse it).

One last thought. If Prigozhin really has gone rouge or cooperated with the CIA/MI6/GUR we will know it within the next days/weeks if he has an incident in Belarus or suddenly decides to commit suicide. (Remember my last article… Hang the traitor). If not, then the other scenarios (GRU) are likely. This is why I now try to get a distance to the topic for some days/weeks to be able to asses a clearer picture after some time.