Not at all. Several here on this thread (including myself and Bruce Charlton) have been maintaining exactly this. :thumbsup:
Printable View
No truce! Everything on the front lines has been proceeding as normal, as it were. (But because hundreds of men are dying every day I really shouldn't make light of this in any way. :flower:)
'Normal' means that Ukrainians continue to be being killed or incapacitated in large numbers, their tanks and armored vehicles continue to be destroyed by artillery and drones (there's one impressive video of a Russian tank taking out two Ukrainian vehicles from about 100 meters range with no trouble at all), and the Russian defense is holding rock solid, as it was from the beginning.
Solid, calm, smiling sense from CIA veteran Ray McGovern, more and more these days like the Wise Old Man of the Mountains. :) Interviewed by Judge Napolitano, published a few hours ago, he explains how the CIA/MI6 works in these kinds of situations. And it all sounds very plausible.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_tFkI1cujgo
For others who found this interesting as well (the first time Macgregor has really diverged from the views of Scott Ritter and others), here he is again, currently live with Judge Napolitano and continuing to explain his opinion about Prigozhin and Wagner.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=0zRF9FGRr9s
Text:
Russian media Verstka writes that construction of camps for mercenaries of Wagner PMC has started in Belarus. Though there is no official confirmation of this information, it was rumored that the establishment of these camps began before Prigozhin’s rebellion.
"Verstka confirmed the construction of a camp in Asipovichy, Mogilev Region, for 8,000 fighters, 200 km from the border with Ukraine. There will be several camps.
Construction of a military camp for mercenaries of Wagner PMC is already in full swing in Mogilev Region of Belarus, "Verstka" was told by the Forestry Department of the region. According to the source, there will be several camps, one of which will be located near the town of Asipovichy.
Verstka's source, close to the leadership of Mogilev Region, confirmed that authorities have been instructed to build a camp the PMC in this region.
Information about sending mercenaries to Belarus is also confirmed by relatives of the members of Wagner PMC."
https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/s...53653149917184
Putin’s speech and video with English interpreter
Text:
PUTIN (today, RT translation): "We have shown supreme consolidation of society and executive authorities at all levels... practically all Russian society - everyone - was united by their sense of responsibility for the fate of the country. Since the very beginning of these events all the necessary decisions to neutralize the threat were taken and to protect the constitutional order, lives, and safety of our citizens.
The armed mutiny would have been suppressed in any case. Despite their loss of reason, the participants could not not understand that, including the fact that they engaged in criminal actions, splitting apart the country which is now facing colossal external threats and pressures, when our comrades are dying at the front lines, holding on whatever the cost.
But the mutineers betrayed their country, their people and they betrayed those who they dragged into this affair, who they pushed to shoot at their comrades. It is this fratricide that the new Nazis in Kiev and their western masters wanted to see and the various traitors as well. They wanted to see Russian soldiers kill each other. They wanted to see Russian servicemen and civilians die and ultimately to see Russia defeated and the Russian society split apart, in a bloodbath.
They didn't want to take responsibility for failures in the war and with the so called counter offensive but they miscounted the law enforcement authorities and the military, who were loyal to their oath and to their people and to their duty.
The courage and sacrifice of the pilots who died prevented a tragedy on a national scale. At the same time we know that most soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group are also patriots of Russia loyal to their state. They proved this with their courage in combat, liberating the Donbass and Novarosia. They were used blindly. They were thrown against their comrades with whom they fought shoulder to shoulder for our future.
Since the very beginning, I gave orders to prevent bloodshed. And we needed time for that, including to give an opportunity to those who realized that made a mistake, to rethink their decision, to realize that they're putting society at risk and that this is leading to destructive consequences as a result of this reckless affair.
I thank the soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group, who made the only correct decision and refused to engage in a fratricide and who stopped at the last line. Today you have an opportunity to continue your service to Russia by signing a contract with the Minister of Defense or other authorities, or to go back to your families.
Those who wish may go to Belarus. The promise I gave will be fulfilled. I repeat, the choice is up to you.
But I'm sure that this will be a choice of Russia's warriors who realize their tragic mistakes. I'm grateful to President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko for his efforts and his contribution to the peaceful resolution of the situation.
But I repeat, it is the patriotic spirit of people, the consolidation of the entire Russian society, that played the deciding role in these days. This support allowed us to overcome this hard challenge. Thank you for this. I'm grateful."
https://twitter.com/upholdreality/st...11863780945925
Text:
Prigozhin’s Statements:
‼️The main thing from Prigozhin's statement about the rebellion
▪️The formal reason was "intrigues" that would lead to the "disbandment of PMCs" on July 1, Prigozhin said.
▪️The purpose of the campaign was to prevent the destruction of the PMC "Wagner" and to bring to justice those persons who, through their unprofessional actions, made a huge number of mistakes during the military defense.
▪️He assures that the PMC started its march to demonstrate protest, and not to overthrow the government.
▪️"We covered 700 km in a day, not a single soldier on the ground was killed, we regret that we were forced to strike at air assets, but they threw bombs and struck."
▪️When the 1st Assault Squad approached Moscow, it became obvious that a lot of blood would be shed, so we felt that demonstrating what we wanted to do was sufficient (about why the PMC turned around)."
▪️Lukashenko extended his hand and offered to find solutions, the columns turned back and went to the field camps.
▪️The march of justice showed many things that we talked about earlier: the most serious security problems in the country, we blocked all military units and airfields that were on our way, in 24 hours we covered the distance from the launch site of Russian troops on February 24 to Kiev, and from the same point to Uzhgorod.
▪️If the actions on February 24 were carried out by a unit by the level of training, like the Wagner PMC, the special operation might have lasted a day, it is clear that there were other problems, but we showed the level of organization that the Russian army should correspond to.
http://t.me/RVvoenkor
https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...61126350901255
Published about 5 hours ago, here's today's summary from The Moon of Alabama.
Prigozhin's Farce is Over and it is Clear Who Has Won
The Prigozhin's insurrection farce is over. I had predicted that it would not take long to end:In twelve or so hours things are likely to have calmed down.About eight hours after I published the above Prigozhin had given up and left the scene.
Prigozhin had launched his hopeless mutiny after the Defense Ministry had demanded that all his men sign contacts with the Russian army. That would have taken away the autonomy of his Wagner outlet and with it a large chunk of his profits. The run of his troops towards Moscow was a desperate attempt to get Putin's attention and to make him reverse the ministry's plans.
To justify his move Prigozhin had claimed that Russian miliary forces had attacked a Wagner camp and killed a number of its troops. To prove that he published a video that shows some trash in the woods but no dead soldiers. It was an obvious fake.
Putin had already publicly agreed to the ministry's plans and he is not the man who reverses his decisions on a dime, or under pressure. After Putin's Saturday morning TV speech, during which he accused Prigozhin of treason without naming him, it was clear that there was no chance for the mutiny to have any success. Many of Russia's governors and high ranking military soon assured Putin publicly of their loyalty.
As far as is known none of Wagner's military commanders and only a few thousand of its 25,000 troops had joined Prigozhin in his lunatic run. No one in Russia changed sides or supported him. When the Wagner troops entered Rostov on the Don the people who talked with his soldiers were critical of their presence. When Wagner were leaving without further bloodshed the people applauded. To interpret that as support for Prigozhin, as some 'western' analysts did, is false. The people were just happy that the whole stunt was over.
Finally the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, likely on request from Putin, got Prigozhin on the phone, used some very strong words and negotiated a deal. If Prigozhin goes into exile in Belarus he will not be bothered any further. But the Russian prosecutors will not yet close the treason case against him. Should he again make a hassle he will likely end up in jail.
Prigozhin may be allowed to take some of his troops with him to Belarus. But the large majority will come under the command of the Russian military and will be transformed into some special unit. The French foreign legion may be an good example for such a force and its potential use.
In previous years Prigozhin's companies had made large profits by catering to the needs of the Russian military. The contracts they have will likely end and his personal fortune will take a big hit. The good days are over for him.
The Biden administration is claiming that the whole affair has weakened Putin:QUESTION: But just staying on Vladimir Putin for a minute, do you believe that this is the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin? SECRETARY BLINKEN: I don’t want to speculate about that. This is, first of all, an internal matter for Russia. What we’ve seen is this, though. We’ve seen this aggression against Ukraine become a strategic failure across the board. Russia is weaker economically, militarily. Its standing around the world has plummeted. It’s managed to get Europeans off of Russian energy. It’s managed to unite and strengthen NATO with new members and a stronger Alliance. It’s managed to alienate from Russia and unite together Ukraine in ways that it’s never been before. This is just an added chapter to a very, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia. But what’s so striking about it is it’s internal. The fact that you have, from within, someone directly questioning Putin’s authority, directly questioning the premises that – upon which he launched this aggression against Ukraine, that in and of itself is something very powerful. It adds cracks. Where those go, when they get there, too soon to say. But it clearly raises new questions that Putin has to deal with.Some well sponsored 'sources' agree with that position:
Meduza’s sources added that the rebellion weakens Putin’s position: “He was unable to get down to Prigozhin’s level, but he was nowhere to be found after yesterday’s national address. He’s the first in command, and takes control when necessary. He shouldn’t make Lukashenko the public face and allow Russia’s security officials [siloviki] to lead negotiations.”As does the Washington Post:On Saturday morning, in the face of Prigozhin’s advance, Putin warned of the “brutal” response to be meted out on what he described as a “rebellion” launched by “traitors.” By the evening, his chief spokesman announced that looming charges against Prigozhin would be dropped and that Wagner fighters who did not participate in the mutiny would be offered contracts by the Russian Defense Ministry. The climb-down revealed a fragility and instability at the heart of Russian power.There are also all kind of conspiracy theories. Will Schryer thinks the whole affair was a psychological operation to smoke out potential traitors. Agit Papadakis claims that this was part of some internal conflict:
With the Putin-Prigo deal, the siloviki have gotten rid of three birds with one stone: Prigo is out forever, exiled to Belarus with Lukashenko as his no-nonsense parole officer, the criminal element in Wagner near and dear to Prigo will be shipped off to Africa, and Putin is disgraced forever, having lost the respect of both the Kremlin and the Russian people. He will now be a powerless figurehead like his brain-dead enemy Biden, taking orders instead of giving them.I disagree with those opinions as I see no sign that Putin came away from it as anything but the winner.|
I am joint in that by Larry Johnson who writes:The West wants to believe that Putin is weak and unpopular — I would note that not a single respected critic of Putin endorsed Prigozhin’s mutiny and that all political leaders across the breadth of Russia lined up behind Putin when the rest of the world was celebrating (prematurely) the demise of the Russian leader.Watching Russian talk shows, Gilbert Doctorow has a similar take:Without any assistance from me, consumers of mainstream Western media know very well the official interpretation that, as always, is being handed down from Washington and is re-posted by our journalists as their own original reporting: how the Prigozhin affair demonstrates the fragility of dictatorships, how it shows the real weakness of the Putin regime, and so forth, and so on. I will offer here a glimpse into what is now being said in Russian public space. I say ‘a glimpse,’ because the diversity of views inside Russia is almost as vast as the country itself and only our ignorant and bigoted opinion formers in the West miss that point.The former Indian ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar agrees:
...
The third panelist on the Solovyov show whom I will cite very briefly was Alexander Babakov, deputy chair of the State Duma and a parliamentarian from the United Russia party. His point was that the armed mutiny failed because it was rejected by the regular Army, by the Russian government at all levels and by the people as a whole. In this way, Russia demonstrated to the world its unity in time of war, its readiness to stand up to the Collective West. The lesson for the West was precisely the strength of the country and of its Commander in Chief.
Is anyone listening in Washington?
Blinken has piled up a consistent record for being horribly wrong on his assessments on Russia — starting from the deathly blow the ‘sanctions from hell’ were expected to give to the Russian economy; Putin’s hold on power; Russia’s catastrophic defeat in Ukraine; Russian military’s deficiencies; Kiev’s inexorable military victory, and so on. In this case, he has reason to feel embittered particularly because of the spectacular unity of the Russian state, political elite, media, regional and federal bureaucracy, and the military and security establishment in rallying behind Putin. Arguably, Putin’s political stature is now unchallengeable and unassailable in Russia and the Americans have to live with that reality long after Joe Biden’s departure from the scene.Today Prigozhin again tried to justify his 'march for justice' as he calls it and again repeats the evidence free claim of the attack on his group. He also claims that his operation demonstrated the problems in the Russian military and the quality of Wagner.
But in fact there was at no moment any danger for Russia. The Russian airforce could have destroyed the Wagner convoys on their way to Moscow at a few minutes notice. His troops in Rostov-on-Don were surrounded by the Chechen troops of Ramzan Kadyrov who had rushed to the city and were prepared to fight Wagner down.
I don't think that there is a chance that Prigozhin will ever have a come back. He is finished and he has only himself to blame for it.
Text:
⚡️PUTIN IS HOLDING MEETING WITH HEADS OF ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES
Putin is holding a meeting with the participation of the heads of law enforcement agencies, Peskov said.
Prosecutor General Krasnov, Interior Minister Kolokoltsev, Defense Minister Shoigu, FSB director Bortnikov, National Guard head Zolotov, FSO director Kochnev, head of the Investigative Committee Bastrykin, and the head of the Kremlin administration Vaino are participating.
https://twitter.com/runews/status/1673417457627721740
Jewish pedophille Putin mentions blackmail attempt...
https://news.sky.com/story/any-black...llion-12910112
...
... don't know, but, who would want - right in the middle of a war - dismantle the most effective and efficient army group of soldiers and disperse them to the 4 winds? That too is treason! Putin didn't walk back on his word of being "stab in the bacK" nor of "inescapable consequences"... yet Prigozhin finds easy, unchallenged asylum in Belarus... hence not the alleged traitor in Putin's crosshairs... if this is true, we will soon find out who did the real backstabbing... right?
As best I understand (in a rapidly moving situation!) this isn't the proposal, no matter how Prigozhin is interpreting it or presenting it. I may possibly be wrong, but if Wagner troops are assimilated into the Russian military, effective and established units would certainly be kept together.
Again as best I understand it, there's no criticism at all of the Wagner forces who didn't take part in the Rostov affair (which is the significant majority of them). They're totally appreciated by Putin, and are admired and applauded by most of the Russian population. Any senior military commander, Gerasimov included, would absolutely want to keep the established units intact.
(But yes, we'll soon see how this all unfolds :highfive: )
As I understand from Putin’s speech here, https://projectavalon.net/forum4/sho...=1#post1564609
Putin is giving the Wagner group a choice,
“ I thank the soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group, who made the only correct decision and refused to engage in a fratricide and who stopped at the last line. Today you have an opportunity to continue your service to Russia by signing a contract with the Minister of Defense or other authorities, or to go back to your families.
Those who wish may go to Belarus. The promise I gave will be fulfilled. I repeat, the choice is up to you.”.
That doesn’t sound like he is dispersing them to the four winds?
¤=[Post Update]=¤
https://twitter.com/its_maria012/sta...38978161381376
I think it was Colonel Douglas Macgregor who said that Wagner was like the French legion. There are also foreign fighters in it.
So probably not every single one of them can be contracted into the Russian army.
Prigozhin was allegedly the owner/leader of Wagner but in no way a military commander. Each unit had their own (probably experienced) military commander.
That may hold the units together I think. However keep in mind that the regular army demands strict top-down discipline and that may become a problem
for Wagner fighters who probably had much more liberty to do what they think necessary (which might explain their success too b.t.w.).
Whatever may have happened, I do not tend to think there is any "weakening" of Putin domestically or abroad.
Mostly the opposite. These journalists have not taken their lesson from 1881. This was around the beginning of what is commonly called "Nihilists", or just "terrorism", having already committed a few murders and explosions in mines and railways. And then the world's first suicide bombing was directed at Tsar Alexander II--by Wagner-alikes, mostly paroled convicts. Of course, being internationally-influenced through British Switzerland, the group had at its disposal a Pole and a Jew. The decision was made to exclude them and require that the attacker be one of the Russian criminals.
There are two outstanding characteristics, it was suicide because the bombs of the time were too heavy to be thrown more than a few feet. Also, it is in the era of mass communication, with many regularly-printed newspapers, and telegraphy over distance. Not quite instant, but news travels fast. Then, even worse, we are told:
There have been “palace regicides” before now—as in the case Peter III and Paul—committed secretly and within the four walls. But the killing of a Czar in full daylight, in his own metropolis, amidst his guards and under the very eyes of a population entirely devoted to him, is a crime hitherto unknown in the annals of Russian history—a crime which covers the whole land with disgrace.
The point of the article is less about the crime itself, but--coming from a Russian--about the "soul of the Russian people" accepting the fact that sometimes they have to deal with poor leaders, the answer to which is not found in foreign interference or violent crime:
And that means an inexorable chase to everyone suspected—death and immediate “Lynch Law” at the hands of the infuriated crowd. Yet the professed object of the Russian Nihilists, as constantly brought forward by the arrested leaders of the deadly secret organization called “the terrorizing faction,” is the salvation of the Russian people. “The idol we sacrifice to is not self, not personal passion, nor profit,” says Goldenberg in his confessions, alleged to have been written prior to his committing suicide in the Petropavlovskaya Fortress (November 1880), but “the good of society in our beloved Russia.” Often, and unjustly indeed, has the Russian populace been suspected of secret sympathy with their would-be benefactors and redeemers; whereas the truth is that these modern Sardanapali, who, prior to perishing themselves, never fail to destroy dozens of innocent victims, were ever abhorred by the lower classes. For long years have many of these educated young men and women, masqueraded in the garb of working people or peasants, and adopting the ways and language of the working classes of Russia, mixed with their “younger brethren.” By sowing dissatisfaction and filling their heads with revolutionary ideas, they hoped to bring about the much desired result—a revival of the days of terror in our own century—but with no effect. That they have signally failed to convert to, or even impress the lower classes with, their own ideas, is no fault of theirs, but is owing to reasons which Europe does not seem to have well realized yet. The mutual relations between the Czars of Russia and the people are unparalleled in history. French Bretagne alone, in its undeviating loyalty and devotion to the Bourbon family throughout the great revolution—nay, even now, amidst Republican France—can afford us a point of comparison. But in neither country does that loyalty rest on the individual merits of the sovereign or the personal affection he inspires. Its cause is to be sought for in their religious fanaticism with which that feeling of loyalty is so deeply intermingled, that to weaken the one is to kill the other. Coronation was in France, and is still in Russia, one of the chief Church Sacraments, and the Czar in the people’s sight is more even than any of the Kings of France ever was—“a Lord’s Elect and His Anointed:” he is thrice sacred. Religion is the Czar’s chief stronghold, without which he would have but a poor chance of security. And that perhaps is the secret of so much outward piety, but too often combined with the greatest moral depravity in the Imperial families. The Russian people were as devoted to Ivan the Terrible, the Russian Nero, and to the half-insane and cruel Paul, as they were to Alexander II, the “Blessed.”
It is even clearer at the trial of Sophia:
The young lady [says the Gazette] showed herself extremely insolent and daring before her judges. Their attempts to elucidate from her some details of the crime with which she is connected, proved utterly useless. Looking them fearlessly in the face, she burst out laughing. When pressed to explain the cause of her hilarity, she exclaimed, “I laugh at your tribunal! You will remain as blind now as your police, before whose very nose I waved my pocket handkerchief while giving the signal to my friends to throw the bomb on the day of Emperor’s execution. . . . Having done my work, I quietly retired, and went home without their ever remarking my participation in the final scene. . . . I laugh at you and your police.” . . .
“But think of what lies in prospect before you!” . . .
“Gallows? I know that well, and am prepared for it from the first. I laugh at your gallows as I do at you! “
“But think of God. . . . He. . . .”
“I laugh at your God likewise . . . I do not believe in God.”
“Woman”!—sternly remarked the Judge—“hold you nothing sacred in the world! What is there, then, you do not laugh at?”
She became suddenly serious. “My people”—she said—“The Russian people—is the only object I do not laugh at; it is my sole divinity and idol!”
* * * * * *
The judges after consulting returned—“Prisoner! We will now act according to your own desires. We will put an end to your examination and will not sentence you to any punishment—neither gallows nor even simple exile. We will exempt you altogether from our tribunal; but, taking you to the Palace Square, we will deliver you into the hands
and justice of your idol—the Russian people. Let it be your only judge. . . . Gendarmes! Lead the prisoner away.”
A quarter of an hour later, Sophia Perovsky was writhing at the feet of the Imperial Procureur. Outside, near the gates of the Tribunal, the agitated masses of populace were howling, cursing, and threatening, at the prison van which brought the political prisoners for their examination, the soldiers vainly trying to keep the threatening crowds at a distance. “Yes! Yes!” she cried ringing her hands—“I will tell you all, all. . . . Sentence me to whatever torture and death you will. . . . But do, oh, do not deliver me unto the people! . . .”
HPB to her sister Vera Zhelivosky:
"Good heavens, what is this new horror? Has the last day fallen upon Russia? Or has Satan entered the offspring of our Russian land? Have they all gone mad, the wretched Russian people? What will be the end of it all, what are we to expect from the future? Oh God! people may say, if they choose, that I am an Atheist, a Buddhist, a renegade, a citizen of a Republic, but the bitterness I feel! How sorry I am for the Imperial family, for the Tsar martyr, for the whole of Russia. I abhor, I despise and utterly repudiate these sneaking monsters — Terrorists. Let every one laugh at me if they choose, but the martyr-like death of our sovereign Tsar makes me feel — though I am an American citizen — such compassion, such anguish, and such shame that in the very heart of Russia people could not feel this anger and sorrow more strongly."
'What do you mean by this? Aren't you an American?' I got so cross that I have sent a kind of general reply to the Bombay Gazette: not as a Russian subject am I clothed in mourning (I have written to them), but as a Russian by birth, as one of many millions whose benefactor has been this kindly, compassionate man now lamented by the whole of my country. By this act I desire to show respect, love, and sincere sorrow at the death of the sovereign of my mother and my father, of my sisters and brothers in Russia. Writing in this way silenced them, but before this two or three newspapers thought it a good opportunity to chaff the office of the Theosophist and the Theosophist itself for going into mourning. Well, now they know the reason and can go to the devil!
To M. Fadeev:
It's a real calamity: fancy that even now I cannot read Russian newspapers with any sort of composure! I have become a regular and perpetual fountain of tears; my nerves have become worse than useless.
Next for Alexander III:
Encouraged by its successful assassination of Alexander II, the Narodnaya Volya movement began planning the murder of Alexander III. The Okhrana uncovered the plot and five of the conspirators, including Aleksandr Ulyanov, the older brother of Vladimir Lenin, were captured and hanged in May 1887.
This, of course, was really the precursor to the Bolsheviks, which is what Russia usually talks about, but even so, they are perfectly aware of more than thirty years of skullduggery sent over by the likes of Rothschilds and Mazzinists.
I am not sure it directly corresponds to Wagner, since Lone Gunman remains a viable option simply based on the fact of the end of his original contracts. Maybe he just wanted to make a show of force, without necessarily attacking any powerful official. But what remains in common is that most likely "the masses" are going to view it disfavorably and remain loyal to their leadership, if not a Czar, someone who is still the head of the Russian state.
The people who are into "planning" with some notion they are going to degrade the society or unleash civil strife aren't going to get there.
Yes, you could influence it politically so that you hold back industries and allow tycoons to start offshoring wealth, and when this is figured out, the trend is simply reversed.
If the press didn't use so many negativistic buzzwords, they would have nothing to report. It is such an English language thing. There is so much less of that abrasive tone from almost any non-Anglo country. I believe they may have become frustrated by the false, unworkable ideas born out as the ongoing attempted corrosion of the Russian "soul" or "national will". Does the UK have one of those?