Turmoil in Ecuador

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/s...82571441430532

I'll try to explain what's happened here.

President Lasso, threatened with looming impeachment, has invoked a never-before-deployed article of the Ecuadorian written constitution. He dissolved parliament (citing a "national emergency"), and announced new elections within 6 months. And today, he stated that he would not be running himself for re-election.

(So basically, he's found an obscure way to wriggle out of damning ignominy and scandal, has made a successful play to be remembered in history for "doing the honorable democratic thing", and is sidestepping being president for a further term because all this would surely start all over again.)

It's al rather arcane, but for anyone who is very interested, some of this can be read here in quite some detail.

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/s...72511457505284

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/st...68853563539459

https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/st...71009087676416

https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/st...74347636219906

https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/st...93083072102403

[onawah]

Ecuador and 11 other developing countries in crippling debt to China

Posted by onawah (here)
The China Show
217K subscribers
26,247 views
Streamed live 5/19/23
From 1 hour 31 minutes into the video, an excellent segment about how developing countries including Laos, Angola, Pakistan, Ecuador, Mozambique, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Ethiopia, Zambia, Congo, Uganda, and Kenya are now in crippling debt to the CCP for cheap, faulty, collapsing infrastructure that China has built in their countries.
And now those countries cannot pay back the debts for the faulty China-built infrastructure, leaving them in much worse condition than they were before.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=2Mnhf2eErBI

[Ravenlocke]

Six lawsuits were filed against executive degree 741, Cross Death, were rejected, elections August 20, first round.

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/s...69640085811203

[Ravenlocke]

https://www.ecuadortimes.net/the-uni...ne-to-ecuador/

The United States and China could throw a lifeline to Ecuador
The mutual death changes the outlook for Ecuador in terms of access to external credit, with a view to financing the 2023 Budget and State investments.

The mutual death decreed by President Guillermo Lasso will have effects on access to external credit to finance the Ecuadorian Budget, in a scenario of falling oil prices.

The Ministry of Finance needs an oil price of USD 65 per barrel to finance the 2023 Budget, but from January to April the price of Ecuadorian crude was USD 64.5.

The Ministry of Finance expected oil revenues of USD 1,224 million in the first four months of 2023, but received half: USD 607 million.

It is not the only challenge facing the Government. Ecuador needs USD 200 million to address the damage caused by the winter, which already leaves 90,879 homeless.

To pay for the winter damage and offset the drop in oil prices, the Ministry of Finance estimates that it must secure an additional USD 1 billion in external credit lines.

The deficit is manageable

With a country risk of 1,832 points, Ecuador has closed the doors of the international debt issuance market.

If the country were to issue new foreign debt bonds, it would have to pay an interest rate of more than 20% per year to offset the risk for buyers of the bonds.

This is almost five times more than the 4.98% annual rate on loans with multilateral organizations such as the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

And now, in the midst of a scenario of political uncertainty, the multilaterals may be more cautious when it comes to approving and disbursing credits for Ecuador, says Alejandro Arreaza, an economist at the British bank Barclays.

At the beginning of 2023, Ecuador budgeted credits from multilateral organizations for USD 3,066 million, but the Ministry of Finance has cut that forecast to USD 1,291 million.

Until April, the multilaterals had already disbursed USD 194 million for Ecuador.

Even the IMF will want to have a clearer political outlook before considering a new credit for Ecuador, adds Arreaza.

Ecuador successfully completed a credit program with the IMF in December 2021 and could access a financing line to deal with natural catastrophes, which does not imply negotiating a new program.

China and the United States

Despite the cash pressures for the State Budget, Arreaza believes that there are options to manage them.

“Fiscal risks for Ecuador may come more from fluctuations in the price of oil than from political instability,” he says.

And he adds that the fiscal deficit or the gap between income and expenses in 2023 is manageable.

According to budget execution, the Ministry of Finance expects to end the year with a deficit close to USD 2.9 billion, which represents 2.5% of GDP.

However, due to the fall in the price of oil, the deficit could increase to USD 4,000 million, according to the former Minister of Finance, Fausto Ortiz.

This could result in the government ending up accumulating arrears with its suppliers at the end of the year, adds Ortiz.

To close the fiscal gap, Arreaza says that one option is the placement of internal debt bonds.

On the other hand, Ecuador has the doors open to seek credit in China, and the government of Guillermo Lasso has received the explicit support of the United States, which could facilitate the achievement of a new line of credit with the IMF.

In President Lasso’s remaining six months of government, the administration could choose to invest heavily in road works, which can boost the economy and employment.

[onawah]

More about how developing countries including Laos, Angola, Pakistan, Ecuador, Mozambique, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Ethiopia, Zambia, Congo, Uganda, and Kenya are now in crippling debt to the CCP for cheap, faulty, collapsing infrastructure that China has built in their countries.
And now those countries cannot pay back the debts for the faulty China-built infrastructure, leaving them in much worse condition than they were before.
It's not that the CCP doesn't care about whether the structures they are building in other countries are durable--the structures in China are probably even worse--buildings crumble to the ground regularly as building codes are practically non-existent.

https://projectavalon.net/forum4/sho...=1#post1558795

And here: (lots of info about Ecuador's particular dilemma in this video)

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=1fsQHQ4y538

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/s...25682275545088

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/...=socialnetwork

Six Citizens Are Running for the Ecuadorean Presidency So Far

This week, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that Ecuadorians will go to vote in presidential and parliamentary elections on August 20. Although no candidacy has been made official before the CNE, six citizens publicly expressed their intention to run for the presidency.

On Thursday, the Expanded Council of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) nominated Leonidas Iza as its presidential candidate. He led the massive protests that put President Guillermo Lasso in check in 2022.

So far, however, his candidacy has not been endorsed by the Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement, which has traditionally acted as the CONAIE's electoral organization.

Previously, Yaku Perez, who received the support of the CONAIE and Pachakutik in the 2021 elections, also launched his candidacy under the auspices of "We are Water," "Democracy Yes," and Popular Unity, three organizations that define themselves as "progressive."

On the side of openly conservative political positions, four candidates seek to reach the Presidency of the Republic. One of them is Fernando Villavicencio, who acted as an important political ally of Lasso from the National Assembly, which is currently dissolved.

The unexpected candidate who appears as an apolitical "outsider" is Jan Topic. This security entrepreneur and economist presents himself as a sniper who fought in "multiple countries around the world," among which he mentioned Ukraine and Syria.

A third candidate is Otto Sonnenholzner, who served as Vice President from December 2018 to July 2020, that is, during President Lenin Moreno's administration (2017-2021).

At the height of the pandemic, he resigned amid corruption scandals and accusations of inefficient management, evidenced by scenes of corpses on the streets of Guayaquil.

Finally, Daniel Noboa also announced his interest in becoming president. He is the son of Alvaro Noboa, a billionaire banana businessman who unsuccessfully tried to become president on more than 3 occasions during the last decades.

If none of the presidential candidates achieves the majority of votes on August 20, the electoral authorities will call a second round on October 15, when the two candidates with the most votes will compete for the presidency.

The new legislators, the president, and the vice president will remain in their positions until May 24, 2025.

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/s...43892308852740

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/s...37704431124482

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/...=socialnetwork

Hitmen Assassinate Duran City Prosecutor in Ecuador

On Thursday, the Ecuadorian Attorney General's Office confirmed the death of Prosecutor Leonardo Palacios in Duran, a neighboring city of Guayaquil, which is one of the areas most affected by crime and insecurity since Guillermo Lasso became president in 2021.

According to the first investigations, Palacios and his secretary were shot at by unknown persons when they were driving a vehicle a few blocks from his office.

Officials of the Attorney General's Office arrived at the site of the attack to begin investigations and find the culprits. At the crime scene, police officers found more than 40 bullets.

Meanwhile, army soldiers and police officers carried out a joint operation to try to locate and surround the hitmen.

The tweet reads, "Sicarios assassinated Duran Prosecutor Leonardo Palacios. The attackers fired from a motorcycle as the officer was returning home."

"Over 10 hours have passed since Palacios assassination... President Guillermo Lasso, however, has not said a single word on social networks," journalist Alexis Moncayo said, highlighting the inability of his administration to react to the prevailing violence in Ecuador.

After the attack, the prosecutor's vehicle, whose windshield was perforated by multiple bullet holes, was left stranded in the middle of Rodas street, a few meters from a judicial office.

Despite witnesses' attempts to help the victims, the prosecutor died instantly. The secretariat survived the attack and tried to help Palacios, who had no vital signs, newspaper El Universo reported, noting that the police arrived at the crime scene half an hour after the events.

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/s...67976171941891

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/s...67976171941891

Yes, and that surprised me. Where I am (150 miles to the south, well inland, and 9,000 ft up in the mountains), there aren't any of these problems at all. Compared with the last extreme couple of rainy seasons*, this one has all been pretty normal.

* Just two 6 month seasons here on the equator:
• Rainy season = Jan—June
• Dry season = July—December.

However, we've been told that El Niño is going to disrupt everything again, and the Ecuador Weather Service has warned of both droughts and floods to come, particularly in coastal areas. In other words, more extremes.

[Ravenlocke]

Text:
Ecuador has elections coming up in August, and the candidates for the leftist Citizens' Revolution, founded by former President Rafael Correa, have been announced:

For president, Luisa González, a former National Assembly member

For VP, Andrés Arauz, an anti-neoliberal economist who is a strong advocate for creating a new regional currency for Latin America

Arauz was the presidential candidate in the last election, and won the first round, but narrowly lost the second round.

If the election is fair, they are likely to win, and Ecuador will be moving back to the left, rejoining the project of regional integration.

https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/s...81655903985664

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/TheGrayzoneNews/...29896858959874

Facing impeachment, neoliberal Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso pulled the trigger on a political reset. Lasso has effectively declared one man rule until new elections are held on August 20. His move has ignited the anger of the social organizations that led a country-wide revolt last year.

So who is running in Ecuador's upcoming elections? Which ones are catering to Washington, and do any plan to bring change to the neoliberal system that has prevailed for the past five years?

||| The Grayzone |||


“An alliance was formed by the elite, directed from behind the scenes by the neoliberal sector, a sector most closely linked to Banking
aiming to govern Ecuador working in an alliance with the media, the big media, armed forces, the police and some big sectors”

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=HSQgpezBdAE

[Szymon]

These types of reports are just coming in.

Post Update:

El Pais reported:

The candidate for the presidency of Ecuador Fernando Villavicencio was shot to death this Wednesday afternoon after participating in a campaign event in Quito. The attack occurred in a school in the capital from which the applicant came. Villavicencio, whom most polls placed in fourth or fifth position among the opponents who will dispute the succession of Guillermo Lasso on August 20, presented himself as a battering ram against corruption under the slogan It’s time for the brave.

The 59-year-old politician was a member of the Assembly until its dissolution and chaired the audit commission. He was criticized for his actions in the impeachment process against Lasso, because that commission issued a report favorable to the president that did not have the support of other legislators. The attack occurs when there are 11 days to go before the elections in a country asphyxiated by an unprecedented crisis. During the campaign, the mayor of Manta, a key port for drug trafficking, and a candidate for the Assembly have been assassinated.

This is a breaking story…please check back for updates.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...ated-campaign/

[ExomatrixTV]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=6lFhh19PiK0

Fernando Alcibiades Villavicencio Valencia (11 October 1963 – 9 August 2023) was an Ecuadorian politician, trade unionist and journalist who ran for president of Ecuador in the 2023 general election. He served as a member of the National Assembly from 2021 until the dissolution of the legislative body on 17 May 2023.

Prior to his political career, he was an investigative journalist covering corruption and violence in Ecuador. A critic of former President Rafael Correa, Villavicencio was in exile in Peru after legal issues following his public critiques of the Correa administration.[1] He spent several months imprisoned until all charges were dropped in February 2018.[2]

Having unsuccessfully run for the National Assembly in 2017, Villavicencio was elected in 2021, representing the national constituency. In May 2023, he announced his presidential candidacy for that year's general election.

Villavicencio was assassinated on 9 August 2023 following a campaign rally in Quito.

• en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Villavicencio

[Bill Ryan]

An English-language report from Ecuador, just published:

• https://cuencahighlife.com/president...nated-in-quito

National elections will go on as planned following assassination of presidential candidate Villavicencio



Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was murdered late Wednesday afternoon as he left a political rally in Quito. According to police, Villavicencio died from three gunshots to the head as he entered a car following the rally at Colegio Anderson in a northern suburb. Witnesses say several security guards were around the candidate when the gunman approached the car and began firing.

A vocal advocate against organized crime and government corruption, Villavicencio had received numerous threats on his life in recent weeks as he outlined his plan to combat drug gangs and government officials who protect them.

According to political polls, Villavicencio was contending for second place and a spot in a likely runoff election with the leader, Luisa Gonzalez of Citizens Revolution. Considered a political centrist, Villavicencio represented the Construye 25 Alliance. Other candidates vying for second position in the election are former vice president Otto Sonnenholzner and Cuenca environmental attorney Yaku Pérez.

Following an emergency meeting with his cabinet and members of the National Electoral Council, President Guillermo Lasso announced that the August 20 national election will proceed as scheduled. The president declared three days of national mourning and a 60-day state of emergency. He also said that ceremonies commemorating Ecuador’s First Cry of Independence holiday on Friday have been suspended.

“Let there be no mistake, this is a political crime and terrorist act aimed at sabotaging our electoral process,” Lasso said. “Those responsible will be arrested and prosecuted.” He added that “large numbers” of police and military personnel will be assigned to protecting the candidates and their rallies through the remainder of the campaign.

Supporters of Fernando Villavicencio gathered Wednesday night at the government building on Parque Calderon in Cuenca following the candidate’s assassination. Other rallies were held in Quito, Riobamba and Guayaquil.

At midnight Wednesday, National Police said they had arrested six men involved in the assassination. One of the suspects was shot in an exchange of gunfire with police and died after he was taken to the prosecutor’s office. A police spokesman who asked not to be named, said the gunmen were operating on orders from criminal gang leaders and represented only the “tip of the iceberg.”

In addition to Villavicencio, at least nine others, including two policemen and a candidate for the National Assembly, were hit by gunfire in the attack, the Quito police command said. Names of the victims or their conditions were not announced as of early Thursday morning.

All seven of Villavicencio’s election opponents issued statements of condolence following the murder, most saying they will temporarily suspend their campaigns.

Villavicencio, 59, was born in Alausí, 50 miles north of Cuenca, but grew up and was educated in Quito. He began his career as a union leader for workers of Petroecuador, later becoming an investigative reporter for several newspapers and websites.

During the presidency of Rafael Correa, Villavicencio accused Correa of “reckless disregard for human life” for ordering a 2010 military assault on a police hospital in Quito. In response, Correa sued Villavicencio for slander and won, the judgement imposing an 18-month prison sentence against Villavicencio and his friend, Dr Carlos Figueroa. The pair escaped to the Amazon town of Sarayaku, where they were protected from arrest by indigenous friends.

Villavicencio and Figueroa returned to public life when their sentence term expired and were not arrested.

[Ravenlocke]

Text:

🇪🇨 What’s known about Ecuador presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio’s assassination:

🔺 Fernando Villavicencio, a candidate in Ecuador’s upcoming presidential election, was assassinated at a campaign event in the Ecuador’s capital, Quito;

🔺 The main suspect has died of gunshot wounds received during his arrest, a total of six people have been detained in connection with the crime;

🔺 The number of those injured at Villavicencio's campaign rally has risen to nine people, the Ecuadorian Prosecutor General's Office said;

🔺 Several offices of the slain candidate were also attacked in Quito;

🔺 Police conducted a controlled explosive detonation near the assassination site;

🔺 A friend of the assassinated politician mentioned he had received threats before the attack;

🔺 Five out of seven Ecuador's seven presidential candidates reacted to the assassination by announcing the suspension of their campaigns;

🔺 Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso has announced a state of emergency across the country for 60 days and declared 3 days of national mourning in honor of Villavicencio;

🔺 The date of the presidential election set for August 20 will not change, the National Electoral Council said;

🔺 According to the latest polls, Villavicencio did not garner enough votes to win the election;

The video shows the moment of the attack on Fernando Villavicencio

sputnik

https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1689648220027437056

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/...62667272978432

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/stat...46777282232323

[ExomatrixTV]

• Dan Bongino discussing the assassination of a presidential candidate Fernando Valencisa ... >>> here starting at 2:52