Thinking in bets - making smarter decisions when you don't have the facts

[kfm27917]

By treating decisions as bets, poker players explicitly recognize that they are
deciding on alternative futures, each with benefits and risks. They also recognize
there are no simple answers. Some things are unknown or unknowable. The
promise of this book is that if we follow the example of poker players by making
explicit that our decisions are bets, we can make better decisions and anticipate
(and take protective measures) when irrationality is likely to keep us from acting
in our best interest.

fascinating book:
Thinking in bets _ making smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts

download at
https://www.pdfdrive.com/thinking-in...195099381.html

In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather,
we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not
choosing. We are constantly deciding among alternative futures: one where we
go to the movies, one where we go bowling, one where we stay home. Or futures
where we take a job in Des Moines, stay at our current job, or take some time
away from work. Whenever we make a choice, we are betting on a potential
future. We are betting that the future version of us that results from the decisions
we make will be better off. At stake in a decision is that the return to us
(measured in money, time, happiness, health, or whatever we value in that
circumstance) will be greater than what we are giving up by betting against the
other alternative future versions of us.

[Violet3]

Posted by kfm27917 (here)
By treating decisions as bets, poker players explicitly recognize that they are
deciding on alternative futures, each with benefits and risks. They also recognize
there are no simple answers. Some things are unknown or unknowable. The
promise of this book is that if we follow the example of poker players by making
explicit that our decisions are bets, we can make better decisions and anticipate
(and take protective measures) when irrationality is likely to keep us from acting
in our best interest.

fascinating book:
Thinking in bets _ making smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts

download at
https://www.pdfdrive.com/thinking-in...195099381.html

In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather,
we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not
choosing. We are constantly deciding among alternative futures: one where we
go to the movies, one where we go bowling, one where we stay home. Or futures
where we take a job in Des Moines, stay at our current job, or take some time
away from work. Whenever we make a choice, we are betting on a potential
future. We are betting that the future version of us that results from the decisions
we make will be better off. At stake in a decision is that the return to us
(measured in money, time, happiness, health, or whatever we value in that
circumstance) will be greater than what we are giving up by betting against the
other alternative future versions of us.

A nice idea to counteract the tendency of us humans to want to make the 'safe' choices, cultivate predictability and routine, and reduce uncertainty- all of which is often far from safe or healthy in a wider context.
I haven't read the book so maybe this is covered , but my first thought was that as we gain experience in life, we act more from knowledge and less from ignorance (hopefully), so perhaps the 'betting' behaviour adjusts to something that is more considered and aware of possible outcomes. That is never going to be enough to counter the fact that there are so many unknowns and life is a big mystery, even for the most advanced among us. But there is certainly room for humans to take more informed chances over time I think.

[DeDukshyn]

Posted by Violet3 (here)

Posted by kfm27917 (here)
By treating decisions as bets, poker players explicitly recognize that they are
deciding on alternative futures, each with benefits and risks. They also recognize
there are no simple answers. Some things are unknown or unknowable. The
promise of this book is that if we follow the example of poker players by making
explicit that our decisions are bets, we can make better decisions and anticipate
(and take protective measures) when irrationality is likely to keep us from acting
in our best interest.

fascinating book:
Thinking in bets _ making smarter decisions when you don’t have all the facts

download at
https://www.pdfdrive.com/thinking-in...195099381.html

In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather,
we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not
choosing. We are constantly deciding among alternative futures: one where we
go to the movies, one where we go bowling, one where we stay home. Or futures
where we take a job in Des Moines, stay at our current job, or take some time
away from work. Whenever we make a choice, we are betting on a potential
future. We are betting that the future version of us that results from the decisions
we make will be better off. At stake in a decision is that the return to us
(measured in money, time, happiness, health, or whatever we value in that
circumstance) will be greater than what we are giving up by betting against the
other alternative future versions of us.

A nice idea to counteract the tendency of us humans to want to make the 'safe' choices, cultivate predictability and routine, and reduce uncertainty- all of which is often far from safe or healthy in a wider context.
I haven't read the book so maybe this is covered , but my first thought was that as we gain experience in life, we act more from knowledge and less from ignorance (hopefully), so perhaps the 'betting' behaviour adjusts to something that is more considered and aware of possible outcomes. That is never going to be enough to counter the fact that there are so many unknowns and life is a big mystery, even for the most advanced among us. But there is certainly room for humans to take more informed chances over time I think.

What I have found myself doing with the smaller things in life lately, is throwing out "safe" and throwing out "what I like" and throwing out "what I did before". Interestingly I just had a discussion with my sister about this, and I find that to truly live in the present moment, each choice needs to be made with a sense of adventure. Not without using knowledge and experience of course, but rather using those things to allow you to be more confident in exercising the freedom of choice.

We all like to pretend we have freedom of choice but very few actually choose freely ... instead people tend to choose based on the "reason" and so often the "reason" is just an existing program that actually works against exercising your free will to choose.

I learned the basis for this concept in a course I once took called "The Landmark Forum" -- it was intense, but pretty damn good -- it breaks your paradigm of your reality in a sense and allows a new perspective on life.

[pueblo]

Good to remember that what is important is not what hand your are dealt, but how you play it.

[Agape]

From my own perspective as “path finder” I found myself in the open fields thinking more often than I’ve admitted , to myself even and later on life
since safer, more reliable options tend to take people further in general
and we have seen too many instances of people who are naturally smart,
risk regularly and almost inevitably, fail or flank the game at some point.

When we are young it seems the other way around.

But for being but me, the Universe is big place to miss...

Eventually the logic I found in open fields perspective is twofold and relies on set of priorities or better say, objectives
and exclusion of adversaries to the objectives.


There is a tiny compass in us we are mostly unaware of, magnetic “6th sense” , some call it “truth sense” that is basically infallible if you are aware of it.

One that calls “spade a spade”.

The problem is - most people try to “play around it”, since childhood but then for most of our lives.
We always try “not to do the right thing” but wait for more favourable circumstance to manifest.

Problem two, you can’t find your true path as a “collective”.

Being connected to others, finding way to each other, social awareness and group think are powerful consciousnesses

( besides that finding true solitude in this world is not easy )

but can trap minds “forever”, in the limited option fields.

Comes down to discernment between “history loops” : decisions or explorations taking us back in time and experience instead forwards and “whirlpools” that can be anything from earthquakes to places of large human gatherings, energy and emotions.
Both traps are to be meticulously avoided ,
in spite their good and modest, repetitive appearance.

Mind itself needs to free itself from cliches the way we discard old cloths.

Thirdly and most importantly , how many options can we include depends on how many reserves and resources are available vs objectives


My only advice in this matter would be: don’t take the worst bets against your best bet and don’t try to overturn the tables.

There has to be a natural reason to our intelligence and reason why God did not want us to win this game.


🙏✨🙏