WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

[Kryztian]

Per Scott Ritter, NATO is blurring the line as to whether or not it is actually at war. Ukraine is hiring mercenaries from NATO countries with funds received from NATO. He talks about this from 10:20 until the end:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=9i2e93jb_OE

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Goba (here)
I told you over a month ago Russia has already lost - they lost on the first day of Putins war. I was showered with less than appreciative comments at the time "stupid" being one of them.
Now it hopefully becomes apparent to the last member of this echo chamber that i was right.

But then again - maybe not because this group acts much like the German general staff in 1944. Let it be known that denial is not a river in Egypt LOL.

Well, I think the best thing here is to channel Mashika again.

~~~

lol, let's see how many points you get out of 10

1. Russia has already lost - they lost on the first day of Putins war
2. 9/11 was from a bunch of amateur Arab terrorists with boxcutters
3. George Soros has the welfare of humanity close to his heart
4. The Germans will somehow keep their factories going this winter,and everyone will be as warm as toast
5. The ruble is going to 100+ per dollar, and everyone in Russia is suffering terribly
6. Putin has cancer, parkinsons disease and another heart attack every week
7. There's nothing wrong with Biden, who has an IQ of 175
8. Elvis is still alive
9. The moon is made of green cheese
10. The earth is flat

hmmm... maybe that's a zero

[Bill Ryan]

Most interestingly (and I think very plausibly), here Alexander Mercouris argues that Putin is quite likely to very soon upgrade the Russian legal framework of the SMO to that of a counter-terrorism operation — which would then allow him to take the gloves off fully.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=4ypbY04NAdk

[Tintin]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by Goba (here)
I told you over a month ago Russia has already lost - they lost on the first day of Putins war. I was showered with less than appreciative comments at the time "stupid" being one of them.
Now it hopefully becomes apparent to the last member of this echo chamber that i was right.

But then again - maybe not because this group acts much like the German general staff in 1944. Let it be known that denial is not a river in Egypt LOL.

Well, I think the best thing here is to channel Mashika again.

~~~

lol, let's see how many points you get out of 10

1. Russia has already lost - they lost on the first day of Putins war
2. 9/11 was from a bunch of amateur Arab terrorists with boxcutters
3. George Soros has the welfare of humanity close to his heart
4. The Germans will somehow keep their factories going this winter,and everyone will be as warm as toast
5. The ruble is going to 100+ per dollar, and everyone in Russia is suffering terribly
6. Putin has cancer, parkinsons disease and another heart attack every week
7. There's nothing wrong with Biden, who has an IQ of 175
8. Elvis is still alive
9. The moon is made of green cheese
10. The earth is flat

hmmm... maybe that's a zero

Yup, second that Hang on, I may need a few more characters for this to pass.

Got it.



(wipes brow in relief )

Now, where were we?

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/stat...58225543794688

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/stat...13930568613894

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/stat...04298701717506

[Tintin]

Posted by norman (here)
I'm hearing that some ( if not all ) of those so called Ukrainian missiles that started the tactical Russian withdrawal were fired from outside Ukraine.

If that's true, everything changes from here on.

Has anyone else seen or heard that too?

I haven't heard that, but, yes, that raises the stakes enormously.

Russia may target satellites in tandem with a 'war' declaration in the next few days, and I'm sure it'll be days, along with any other star wars options they've kept in reserve. (Actually that's a bold slightly mad assertion, but..?) They have that capability.

Very sadly, for the regular citizens of Ukraine still there, this will pretty much mean they're toast. And I take no joy in suggesting that.

Ukraine is done. Good luck to the close to a "quarter of the population that have escaped already - their spidey senses may be working very well.

"Estimated at about 10 million that have escaped which is close to the population of greater London

How might NATO respond? With its usual extraordinary imagination (sarcasm) and decide to throw a nuke around.

(Quick update re the distance missile thing: outer space, perhaps although Russia recently launched from submarines in the Caspian Sea, so, all options may well be on the table now.)

[Ravenlocke]

https://www.rt.com/news/562615-germa...-line-ukraine/

Germany has ‘crossed red line’ – Russia

Germany has crossed a red line with Russia by sending arms to Ukraine, Moscow’s ambassador in Berlin said on Monday. The decision undermined decades of reconciliation since the end of World War II and the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, the diplomat added.

“The very fact that the Ukrainian regime is being supplied with German-made lethal weapons, which are used not only against Russian military service members, but also the civilian population of Donbass, crosses the red line,” Ambassador Sergey Nechaev said in an interview with Izvestia newspaper.

He added that Berlin should have known better, “considering the moral and historic responsibility that Germany has before our people for the Nazi crimes.”

“They have crossed the Rubicon,” Nechaev stated, using an idiom for passing the point of no return.

Berlin discarded its longstanding policy of not sending weapons into zones of armed conflict to join the US and other NATO allies in providing weapons to Ukraine. The German government says it has a moral responsibility to back Kiev so it can defend itself against Russia.

Germany also joined an effort by the EU to decouple the economies of member states from Russia’s. German businesses have been relying on cheap Russian natural gas for five decades, since before the Soviet Union collapsed.

German foreign minister visits Kiev
German foreign minister visits Kiev
The German government “has unilaterally acted to destroy bilateral relations [with Russia] that were unique in scale and depth and had been built over decades,” the Russian ambassador noted. “In essence, the post-war reconciliation of our nations and peoples is being eroded,” Nechaev said.

According to the diplomat, economic restrictions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine conflict have resulted in a sharp increase in utility bills, a surge in consumer prices, and a decrease in real incomes in Germany. Nechaev said the “sanctions war” against Moscow is being increasingly seen as “shooting yourself in the foot” in Germany, which has already faced protests over the cost-of-living crisis. The ambassador noted that Russia took no pleasure in seeing the damage, even if Berlin has itself to blame for it.

“We believe the ongoing processes to be Germany’s domestic issue, in which we do not get involved,” he said. “And we certainly are not in the habit of delivering pompous lectures, the likes of which the West constantly makes about Russians.”

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements, designed to give the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state. The protocols, brokered by Germany and France, were first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian president Pyotr Poroshenko has since admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.”

In February 2022, the Kremlin recognized the Donbass republics as independent states and demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join any Western military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked.

¤=[Post Update]=¤

https://twitter.com/ReadovkaWorld/st...69714697814016

[norman]

Posted by Tintin (here)

(Actually that's a bold slightly mad assertion, but..?) They have that capability.

Here's another.

Both the B.I.S. and the Cern sites are sovereign ( immune [hah] ) entities. That means that knockout kinetic strikes on either or both ( I suggest both ) will not involve other sovereign states.

[Tintin]

From Andrei Martyanov's Blog, published September 10th with, I must add, a few touches of spice here and there :


(Further comment from TQ: don't forget the 'pins and strings')


---

"[The]Russian Army uses paper maps but most of it in the minute tactical detail is reflected on the displays of Combat Management Systems of battalion and higher level, up to to VNTSUO in Moscow. Needless to say, ALL of it, without exception, including REAL positions of Russian units and formations is highly classified and is not known to ALL "experts", me included, who pretend that they know."

- Andrei Martyanov

---

Clarity In Small Dozes. Or Why I Do Not "Do" Sitreps.

1. I already quoted Apti Alaudinov when two days ago he stated:

"What is happening today was planned. This is a tactical ploy that helped us to pull all their forces and means to the territory where it is convenient for us to fight with them."

But, of course, what does he know, right? He is just a commander of Akhmat regiment which is more of a brigade size formation which fights in 404. Some say they have 1,200 people in SMO (which IS a regiment size force), others say--more than that. So, experienced and courageous commander of this formation calls it as it is. But no, we get all kinds of arm-chair "strategists" who know it better. Well...

2. Today, though, much maligned by me, and not me only, Mr. Sivkov, who is now a spokesperson for Academy of Artillery and Rocket Science, recalls that he, after all, was an officer of the General Staff and states:

"«Наши военные знали, что готовится наступление, поэтому сейчас войска перегруппировываются для уничтожения группировки Вооруженных сил Украины (ВСУ), которая пришла в районы Балаклеи и Изюма. Надо иметь в виду, что там нет укрепрайонов, поэтому задача уничтожения наиболее боеспособных украинских частей будет решаться достаточно успешно. На это потребуется еще несколько дней», – считает доктор военных наук Константин Сивков. Эксперт особо отметил, что за последние трое суток, как стало известно из сводки Минобороны, было уничтожено более 2 тыс. украинских и иностранных боевиков, а также свыше ста единиц бронетехники и артиллерии. «ВСУ несут большие суточные потери. Сейчас главная задача – разгромить наступающую группировку ВСУ, лишить ее потенциала, выбить технику, которая находится не в городах и укрепрайонах, а на открытых пространствах. У ВСУ не должно остаться сил и средств для ведения эффективной обороны», – пояснил собеседник."

Translation: “Our military knew that an offensive was being prepared, so now the troops are regrouping to destroy the grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which has come to the Balakleya and Izyum regions. It must be borne in mind that there are no fortified areas there, so the task of destroying the most combat-ready Ukrainian units will be solved quite successfully. This will take a few more days,” said Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov. The expert emphasized that over the past three days, as it became known from the report of the Ministry of Defense, more than 2 thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters, as well as over a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery, were destroyed. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering large daily losses. Now the main task is to defeat the advancing grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, deprive it of its potential, knock out equipment that is not located in cities and fortified areas, but in open spaces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine should not have the strength and means to conduct effective defense,” the interlocutor explained.

But, but... how could this be, when Russian General Staff didn't call Yuri Podolyaka or Rybar, or Readovka, or South Front and didn't ask for their "expert" opinion? Because as we know, the real war is fought in media sphere and people who wouldn't be able to distinguish **** from shinola operationally rely on their own and IPSO echo-chamber.

Here is one such demonstration--operational maps. I did a review of this issue a few days and touched upon this seemingly simple thing: that you cannot trust maps by all kinds of fanboys, like Rybar, because those are NOT real military maps and the first tell-tell sign of it the lack of proper legend and scale. Here is one such example of such a map:



As you can see yourself, in a good tradition of fanboys the attack on Balakleya is presented with a nice yellow arrow. But let me show you how, let's say, the staff of a brigade or a division size formation looks at the battle. Here is 1942 and its operational map by Wehrmacht. It is Voronezh.



By now you begin to notice the difference, right? Right, this one is for professionals and it is also the one which once first symbols of units and formations, both friendly and enemy's, begin to be drawn upon, and you guessed it, it becomes classified.
Here is 6th Cavalry Corps map in 1941 around... Kharkov.



As you can see yourself, you get here all necessary geographic and tactical details on it. This was 80+ years ago. Fast forward to 2022 and SMO, not only Russian Army uses paper maps but most of it in the minute tactical detail is reflected on the displays of Combat Management Systems of battalion and higher level, up to to VNTSUO in Moscow. Needless to say, ALL of it, without exception, including REAL positions of Russian units and formations is highly classified and is not known to ALL "experts", me included, who pretend that they know.

They don't. Same as they don't know real operational plans, they do not know the real troops movements and all poor and overwhelmed consumers of such "expertise" get is a feculant stream of "interpretations" of media information by amateurs who present their operational "skills" (99% of them have no idea what operational planning is) by producing the SO CALLED "operational maps" which are nothing more than a complete and misleading BS concocted based on the media "reports" most of which are nothing more than crude propaganda and PR.

I am not going to disassemble here all those idiotic assumptions by all these "experts", many of who are nothing more than unsuspecting conduits for Ukie propaganda, but I have to give them the credit for their compete belief in their own operational and strategic talent and foresight after most of them never served a day in uniform and never commanded at least a platoon, let alone company or battalion size formations, not to speak of serving in the staffs of battalion, regiment, brigade not to speak of corps or the army. But here we are.

Reality, however, from the data which is pouring in for the last couple of days from Kharkov is such that already more than 2,000 of VSU personnel are KIAs, so you can now multiply it by at least three and it will give you around 6,000 sanitary losses--in general, the rate of losses is even steeper than that in Kherson a week ago, when VSU has written off between 15 to 20,000 of personnel. Kharkov is shaping to be a wowser. A bloody one.

But then again, what do those losers in General Staff know when we have internet "analysts" with zero military experience telling us that rate of losses doesn't matter and it absolutely doesn't indicate like... nothing. Certainly not what Russian professional military people say for the last 72 hours--that a massacre of VSU at Kherson finally pressed them to roll out their main forces at Kharkov onto the plains and small forests of the countryside where already today a number of them have been "enclosed" in what is called "fire sacks" and are being annihilated.

I can sit here and write about this **** for hours, but, frankly, I already confirmed to myself a number of assertions I made in the last few months and I am happy with that, since it makes my job easier. I just want to reiterate--I am not in the PR business and sometimes get a bit tired debunking obvious BS, because it takes time to provide proper framework and context for people to stop panicking, when looking at "operational maps" from Toys"R"Us and listening to incessant propaganda in media. But what do I know, really? This is your primer for the weekend.

[superior88]

BATTLE FOR KHARKOV REGION: HAS NATO GAINED ADVANTAGE?

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=fjplyqvxA_A

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by Goba (here)
I told you over a month ago Russia has already lost - they lost on the first day of Putins war. I was showered with less than appreciative comments at the time "stupid" being one of them.
Now it hopefully becomes apparent to the last member of this echo chamber that i was right.

But then again - maybe not because this group acts much like the German general staff in 1944. Let it be known that denial is not a river in Egypt LOL.

Well, I think the best thing here is to channel Mashika again.

~~~

lol, let's see how many points you get out of 10

1. Russia has already lost - they lost on the first day of Putins war
2. 9/11 was from a bunch of amateur Arab terrorists with boxcutters
3. George Soros has the welfare of humanity close to his heart
4. The Germans will somehow keep their factories going this winter,and everyone will be as warm as toast
5. The ruble is going to 100+ per dollar, and everyone in Russia is suffering terribly
6. Putin has cancer, parkinsons disease and another heart attack every week
7. There's nothing wrong with Biden, who has an IQ of 175
8. Elvis is still alive
9. The moon is made of green cheese
10. The earth is flat

hmmm... maybe that's a zero

The real Mashika (my alter ego! ) has asked me to kindly add this:

~~~

I felt a great disturbance in the Ukrainian Force, as if millions of lame Internet troll voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced and disconnected from the web, and the power grid

[kfm27917]

https://www.thepostil.com/our-latest...-jacques-baud/

Interesting discussion about Operation Z and of map sites

[kfm27917]

KNOWING WHAT WE KNOW, KNOWING WHAT WE DON’T KNOW AND KNOWING THE DIFFERENCE
11 September 2022 by Larry Johnson 168 Comments

Apologies up front for reminding you of Donald Rumsfeld’s musing during the chaos of the 2003 Iraq invasion and its aftermath. I am not sure that the Soviet Union would have survived the Nazi invasion during World War II if the internet existed back then. There is a great World War II documentary with the banal title, Second World War Diary (1939-1945). But it is anything but trite. The “Diary” covers the main events of every day in World War II, starting in Europe with the invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939 and ending with the Japanese surrender in August 1945.

Without the internet, news about momentous and innocuous event were much slower and more controlled in getting to the public at large. Events like the bombing of Pearl Harbor were quickly broadcast around the world, but the United States Government limited reporting on the full scale of that disaster. Other events, like the U-boat war in the Atlantic, came out in drips and drabs, without the public having a full appreciation of the peril the submarines presented to England’s ability to supply its forces and feed its people.

Here is a snippet of the first episode:


One of the valuable insights you will glean from watching the daily grind of World War II is that the pivotal battles, such as the Battle of Moscow in 1941, the Battle of Stalingrad in 1942-43, the Battle of Kursk in 1943 and the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944, were not decided in a day or two. Stalingrad, for example, for almost six months. There were setbacks for the Russians and the Americans and the Brits. If the internet had been around the ensuing hand wringing over perceived defeats might have sapped the will of the west and the Soviets to continue the fight against the Nazis.

So what the hell does this have to do with the current war in Ukraine. There is enormous disinformation (i.e., deception) flooding the internet from both Ukraine and Russia. However, Ukraine has a decided advantage in the information war given the massive covert action support supplied by US and NATO intelligence organizations. One major consequence of this operation is that much of the public around the world have been convinced that Russia is either losing or barely hanging on by its teeth.

So let us start with what we know for a fact. The Russian Special Military Operation started with a massive air and missile strikes on key Ukrainian military targets throughout Ukraine and the quick seizure of key locations, such as airfields, Kherson and Zaporhyzhia’s Nuclear Power Plant. Ukraine’s response? Not much. They did not halt the attack with counter attacks nor did they re-take the sites Russia occupied.

Media reports on subsequent ground combat in the Donbas and in Mariupol always left readers and listeners with the impression that Russian troops were leading the way and carrying the brunt of the battle. But that is not true. The vast majority of the ground combat was carried out by Donbas militias and brigades from Chechnya. Russian armed forces played a secondary role, i.e., a supporting role, by providing combat air, artillery and missile strikes. The Russians also provided their extensive electronic warfare capabilities.

What Ukrainian forces are involved? That is pretty well defined thanks to the daily briefing provided by the Russian Military of Defense. The Russian MOD details every day the units and command headquarters hit by Russian air and missile strikes. In the previous six months I have not seen a single report refuted by Ukraine. In fact, videos from Ukrainian sources have confirmed many of the Russian reports.

Here is the real curiosity. Nobody knows, at least the public, the full scope or order of battle of the Russian units involved in the SMO. We have seen scant reports from the Ukrainian side reporting on successful strikes on Russian military command posts. What does this tell us? Russia is keeping a very close hold on what units it is deploying into combat and Ukraine, along with its western allies, is not saying a word about the Russia order of battle either. That means one of two possibilities–1)the Ukrainians and NATO know but are doing some incredible operation security in keeping those facts from the public or 2) the Ukrainians and its NATO allies are confused and uncertain.

What is the answer? The Ukrainians and NATO know that most of the ground war is being fought by Donbas militias, but do not want to inform the public of that because it undercuts their propaganda campaign to make this “invasion” all about Russia.

We also know that Russia is much better at deception than Ukraine and NATO. Ukraine did nothing to hide its intent to launch an attack in the Kherson region and also signaled it would attack around Kharkov. Russia? Helped the Donbas militias reinforce their forces around Kherson (and successfully beat back the Ukrainian attack causing massive Ukrainian losses). Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kharkov as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.

There is one more salient fact–the Ukrainian offensive around Kharkov took place without any meaningful support from Ukrainian combat air or artillery. Why is that important? That means the Russian air force–both fixed wing and rotary wing–is unscathed and intact. Russian armor and artillery systems also were not destroyed. If they ain’t destroyed they can still fight and the Ukrainian troops do not have a large reserve of armor and artillery to protect them.

Ukraine and the western media blithely ignore this fact and are celebrating the limited Ukrainian advance as if it were the reincarnation of the Nazi blitzkrieg into France.

One final fact to take into account. Ukraine has incurred horrendous casualties over the last two and a half weeks of combat. Russia and the militias have far fewer losses. Russia has not tapped into its trained military reserve. Ukraine has no trained military reserve left. So, for all of you arm chair generals out there second guessing Russia’s command decisions, please explain how Ukraine comes out on top? I look forward to your answers.

https://sonar21.com/knowing-what-we-...he-difference/

[Tintin]

Special Military Operation, Season 2
vanessa beeley / 40 seconds ago

Here's a neat summary from "Big Serge" whose article Vanessa Beeley has shared via her site.

I'd say it's pretty spot on and reiterates what we do genuinely now know. I've taken the liberty of bold texting some of the key takeaways.

Quote:

"The first thing we want to note is that the disparity of forces on this front was absolutely laughable. Ukraine assembled a strike group of at least five full brigades, and aimed at a line of contact which had no Russian regular troops at all. The Russian frontline defenses in the region were manned by allied donbas militia and national guardsmen. It seems there was a lone Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) in Izyum, but little else.

It is undeniable, even for Ukrainians celebrating the advance, that Kharkov oblast had been almost completely hollowed out of Russian troops, leaving little more than a screening force. Two important things flow from this. First, that the Ukrainian shock group was in most places advancing against virtually nonexistent resistance. Secondly, more ominously for Ukraine, the low quality units left behind for screening purposes were able to put up good resistance against the Ukrainians – the Rosgvardiya men in Balakliya held out tenaciously for several days before evacuating through a corridor."

------

“Big Serge” on Substack writes:

September 9 – 11 will go down in history as a period of great significance in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Both belligerent parties crossed very important thresholds, which taken together suggest that the war is entering a new phase. On the 9th and 10th, Ukraine achieved its first concrete success of the war by retaking all the Russian-held territory in Kharkov Oblast west of the Oskil river, including the western bank of Kupyansk and the transit node of Izyum.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin convened an emergency meeting of his national security council, which precipitated Russia’s own escalation on the 11th, when Ukrainian infrastructure was at long last subject to attack, plunging much of the country into darkness.

It seems clear that the war is entering a new phase, and it seems highly likely that both parties will attempt to take decisive action in the near future. For now, let’s try to parse through the developments of the past week and get a handle on where the war is heading.

The Kharkov Counteroffensive

At the risk of sounding very pedantic, Ukraine’s counteroffensive in eastern Kharkov Oblast is an excellent demonstration of the difficulties in evaluating military operations. Everyone agrees on the basic geography of what has happened: Ukraine cleared everything west of the Oskil river of Russian forces. Nobody agrees on what this means, however. I have seen all of the following interpretations posited – note, people reached all of these conclusions from the same set of data:

- Russia has drawn Ukraine into a trap and will soon counterattack
- Russia voluntarily withdrew from Kharkov to prioritize other fronts
- Russia drew the Ukrainians out to hit them with artillery
- Russia suffered a massive intelligence failure and did not see or respond to
Ukraine’s offensive
- Russia suffered a defeat in battle and was forced to retreat

Let’s do a methodical autopsy and see what we come away with.

The first thing we want to note is that the disparity of forces on this front was absolutely laughable. Ukraine assembled a strike group of at least five full brigades, and aimed at a line of contact which had no Russian regular troops at all. The Russian frontline defenses in the region were manned by allied donbas militia and national guardsmen. It seems there was a lone Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) in Izyum, but little else.

It is undeniable, even for Ukrainians celebrating the advance, that Kharkov oblast had been almost completely hollowed out of Russian troops, leaving little more than a screening force. Two important things flow from this. First, that the Ukrainian shock group was in most places advancing against virtually nonexistent resistance. Secondly, more ominously for Ukraine, the low quality units left behind for screening purposes were able to put up good resistance against the Ukrainians – the Rosgvardiya men in Balakliya held out tenaciously for several days before evacuating through a corridor.

In my previous analysis, conducted while the Ukrainian counteroffensive was just beginning to develop, I noted two important things about the shape of the battlefield.

I argued that Ukraine would be unable to push across the Oskil and properly exploit their offensive. I noted that Ukraine was making rapid advances against thinly manned, hollowed out portions of the front, and that Russia had committed very little to the battle.

Both of these statements were correct. I freely admit, however, that I drew the incorrect conclusion from them. I believe the Ukrainian advance would culminate at the Oskil river, leaving them vulnerable to a Russian counterattack by the arriving reserves. It seems fairly clear now that this is incorrect, and the Russian reserves that were en-route were tasked with stabilizing the defense at the Oskil, not launching a counterattack.

This was not an operational trap by Russia, but neither was it a victory in battle for Ukraine – for the simple reason that there was not much of a battle at all. Russia had already hollowed out these positions, and withdrew the remaining screening forces very quickly. Ukraine covered a lot of ground, but were unable to destroy any Russian units, because there really weren’t any there.

It would be silly to try to talk the Ukrainian side out of their excitement right now. Credit where credit is due, they did manage to put together a good sized shock group, aim it at a weak portion of the front, and regain a good bit of ground. Considering the abject lack of successes for Ukraine in this war, they are rightfully trying to eke every last bit of morale and propaganda out of this.

I do not, however, believe that the territorial losses in Kharkov in any way change the ultimate calculus of the war. Russia hollowed out this front and surrendered ground, but they were able to maul the Ukrainian forces as they advanced with relentless artillery and airstrikes. Ukrainian channels widely report overflowing hospitals. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed 4,000 killed and 8,000 wounded for Ukraine during their advance – I believe this is high, but even if we reduce the numbers by 50% (leaving us with 6,000 total casualties, reasonable given how much ordnance Russia discharged) it is very clear that the loss ratios in this operation were stacked badly against Ukraine, as they always are.

Momentum

As I predicted in my last piece, Ukraine has so far been unable to exploit their offensive by reaching the operational depth. They have been totally unable to project forces across the Oskil River. With the advance eastward firmly culminated, they are seeking to maintain their momentum, or at least the appearance of it.

Ukraine’s successful advance in Kharkov Oblast has been augmented with a blitz of fakery and propaganda designed to simulate a total shift in strategic momentum. These include fakes related to Russian domestic politics, such as fabricated calls for Putin’s impeachment, and battlefield misinformation, like claims that the Ukrainian Army has breached the borders of the LNR or stormed Donetsk City. They have also circulated out of context videos (the most popular one shows a Russian vehicle depot in Crimea) purporting to show that the Russians abandoned hundreds of vehicles in Izyum.

The fakery is not important. Ukraine will, however, also attempt to maintain battlefield momentum by piggybacking on the Kharkov operation with additional counteroffensives. They continue to attempt to cross the Donets River in force to storm Lyman, unsuccessfully. They also continue their attacks in the Kherson direction, making little progress and taking high casualties.

The most important development, however, is the claim that a second Ukrainian shock group has been assembled in Zaparozhia. This is an area where the geography actually would allow Ukraine to achieve operational exploitation. A successful drive towards Melitopol or Mariupol would compromise the land bridge to Crimea and threaten to crumble Russia’s entire position in the south.

Unlike Kharkov, however, this is not a hollowed out portion of the front. The newly formed Russian 3rd Corps is concentrated in the south, and Russian convoys have been spotted recently moving through the Mariupol region. Ukraine may very well attempt yet another offensive operation in this direction, but given the strength of the Russian grouping here the results will be more like Kherson than Kharkov.

Sovereignty

During the opening months of the war, I argued on Twitter that massed offensives are difficult, and that Ukraine had not yet shown the organizational ability to organize an operational higher than the brigade level. All the attacking action that we saw from Ukraine early on took the form of single brigade – or more often, single battalion – commanders taking initiative.

Well, lo and behold, Ukraine managed to field at least two (Kherson, Kharkov) and perhaps three (Zaporizhia) multi-brigade shock groups, and launch coordinated operations. This was made possible because Ukraine is a pseudo-state, which is supplied, financed, and increasingly managed by NATO. Western agencies cannot resist bragging – Britain identified itself as the party responsible for planning and organizing the Kherson operation, while the USA claims credit for the more successful Kharkov attack.

It is difficult to overstate the extent to which Ukraine is sustained solely by the west. Ukrainian soldiers are trained by NATO officers, armed with NATO weapons, accompanied in the field by NATO soldiers foreign volunteers, and the Ukrainian pseudo-state is kept running by cash injections from the west. Videos from the Kharkov front abound with English speaking soldiers and foreign weapons.

The point isn’t just to point out, yet again, that Ukraine is a failed state – a corpse that is given the illusion of life by outside actors moving its limbs. The point is that Russia understands this and correctly understands itself to be in a civilizational collision with the west. To that end, we must understand that Russian escalation is underway, and think about what that means.

Escalation and Mobilization

By this point, the idea that Russia needs to mobilize has become a tired old meme, courtesy of the deranged Igor Strelkov. It is certainly true that Russia must escalate, but leaping directly to mobilization (putting the economy on war footing and calling up conscripts) would be a grave mistake. Russia has other, better ways to escalate. The recent Ukrainian advance in Kharkov is an obvious signal to raise the force deployment, and Ukrainian potshots at targets across the Russian border only add to the pressure to take the gloves off.

First, I would like to comment on why I am against mobilization. One of the most important dimensions of this war is the economic front. Europe is being driven to the brink by the energy crisis. The Wall Street Journal keyed in on what I believe to be the most apt descriptor of the crisis, warning of a “new era of deindustrialization in Europe.”

A full mobilization would be very costly for Russia’s economy, risking the edge that it currently holds in the economic confrontation with Europe. This, I believe, is the main reason that the Russian government was quick to quash rumors of mobilization today. There are other steps on the escalation ladder before going to total war footing.

There are already rumors that Russia is planning to change the formal designation of the war, from “Special Military Operation”. While that could mean a formal declaration of war, I think that is unlikely. Rather, Russia will likely give the Ukraine operation the same designation as its operations in Syria, loosening the rules of engagement and beginning to target Ukrainian assets in earnest.

We saw a foretaste of this last night, when Russia wiped out over half of Ukraine’s power generation with a few missiles. There are many more targets that they can go after – more nodes in the electrical grid, water pumping and filtration facilities, and higher level command posts. There is at least some probability that Russia begins targeting the command facilities with NATO personnel in them. Plausible deniability works both ways; because NATO is not officially in Ukraine – only “volunteers” – targeting their personnel is not an overtly aggressive act.

Russia also has many ways to boost its force deployment in Ukraine that fall short of full mobilization. They have a pool of demobilized contract soldiers that they can call up, as well as a pool of reservists that they can raise with a partial mobilization.

The Russian line is hardening. Just in the past 24 hours, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were “no prospect for negotiations” with Ukraine, and Putin said “Unfriendly forces are targeting us, and we must take initiative in order to succeed in confronting them.” Medvedev went even further just now: “”A certain Zelenskyy said that he will not hold a dialogue with those who issue ultimatums. The current ‘ultimatums’ are a warm-up for kids, a preview of demands to be made in the future. He knows them: the total surrender of the Kiev regime on Russia’s terms”

If you believe the Russian government is utterly incompetent and duplicitous, feel free to view statements like this as bluster. But given the warning shot at Ukrainian power generation yesterday, my sense is that Russia is preparing to escalate to a higher level of intensity, which Ukraine cannot match with its indigenous resources. Recent The only other player on the escalation ladder is the United States.

Dark times area ahead for Ukraine – and perhaps for Americans on the other front of this war.

The Other Southern Front

Syria and Ukraine are two fronts in the same war. This is very important to understand. In Syria, the United States has attempted to wreck Russia’s most important Middle Eastern ally and create a Trashcanistan of chaos to suck in Russian resources; in Ukraine, NATO has armed a kamikaze state to hurl at Russia’s western border. In the Russian mind, these wars are inextricably linked.

After the Kharkov counteroffensive, I strongly suspect that Russia will look for a way to strike back at the United States, without crossing red lines that could lead to a more direct confrontation. Syria is the place where this would happen. The United States maintains several illegal bases on Syrian soil, which Russia could strike using its Syrian allies much the same way that the United States is using Ukraine. Russia is in the finishing stage training a new Syrian airborne division. With Russian air cover, an attack on one of the American bases in Syria would be possible – the USA would be forced to choose between shooting down Russian planes and flirting with nuclear war, or humbly accepting the loss of an illegal base that it has worked hard to hide from its own citizens. Given the utter lack of enthusiasm among the American public for yet another war in the Middle East, it seems that the USA would simply have to swallow the loss.

Big Serge Expectations:

1.Russian escalation of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and command centers.
2.Russian force deployment raised without full mobilization.
3.Intensification of Russian efforts to recover DNR territory.
4.Possible escalation in Syria, likely in the form of Syrian army attacks on US bases.

[kfm27917]

Soldier-spy ‘Strelkov’ snipes from the sidelines at Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine
A key protagonist in the 2014 insurgency in Donbas is now taking aim at the Kremlin’s military failings.

Igor Strelkov ('Shooter'), whose real name is Igor Girkin, is sniping from the sidelines | Bulent
In April 2014, a former Russian soldier and spy who assumed the nom de guerre of Igor Strelkov captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk with a band of irregular troops and went on to become defense minister of the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic.

Now, he’s telling the Kremlin that the full-scale offensive launched by Russian forces this week to capture the entire Donbas region — with vastly greater numbers and firepower — is at serious risk of failure.

These days, Strelkov (“Shooter”), whose real name is Igor Girkin, is sniping from the sidelines, appearing in a trademark black shirt on YouTube and other social media to intone in his sonorous baritone on the flaws in President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” to conquer Ukraine.

“We must ask ourselves,” writes Strelkov in his latest screed on Telegram, “does the superiority of the Russian Federation’s armed forces in aviation and heavy weapons guarantee victory over an enemy, for whom our offensive plans are obvious, which is prepared for defense and has high morale?”

In a country where freedom of speech is being crushed, Russians whose war aims are even more extreme than the Kremlin’s still appear to have a license to air their views. And Strelkov, 51, is making the most of the opportunity, posting the three-part takedown of Russia’s war prospects on Wednesday on his Telegram channel. (Here are parts two and three.)

Strelkov penned the piece at the request of a comrade returning from the front, who asked him to do so “without getting into the jungle of military science.”

He obliged, writing plainly that Russia, having been forced into a “large-scale retreat” from Kyiv in the north, risks a similar fate after concentrating its forces in the east to launch a second assault. Moscow lacks the numbers, firepower and air support to sustain a swift advance. And its troops are likely to outrun their supply lines and end up being ambushed by the Ukrainian defenders.

Strelkov concludes: “Without at least a partial mobilization in the Russian Federation, it will be impossible and highly dangerous to launch a deep strategic offensive against the so-called ‘Ukraine.’ We must prepare for a long and difficult war.”

Truth to power
Western analysts seeking clues as to Russia’s next steps are paying attention to Strelkov, who has been charged with murder by a Dutch court over the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in July 2014. Although Strelkov holds no official position, he displays some of the mastery of decoding Kremlin thinking shown by Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

The nationalist firebrand, who died earlier this month, was filmed three years ago cutting a Ukraine-shaped birthday cake and saying Russia should annex the eastern two-thirds of the country. Last December, Zhirinovsky predicted the Russian invasion in February almost to the day.

In Ukraine, where he is hated, Strelkov is viewed as a conduit for Russian propaganda: his overt patriotism giving him the cover to break bad news that the Kremlin can later acknowledge.

Putin on Thursday called off an assault on Ukrainian forces holding out at a steelworks in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, which Russian troops have failed to capture completely after sustaining heavy losses in nearly two months of war. “This is the case when we must think — that is, we must always think, but in this case even more so — about preserving the life and health of our soldiers and officers,” Putin told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Strelkov, who sports a pencil mustache and a neat parting, remained silent in the early stages of the war. But, after concluding that the Russian invasion was at risk of turning into a bloody debacle, he has aired his views freely and directly.

“That the operation wasn’t going to plan became obvious on about the fifth day. On the sixth day, I received a lot of information, and I understood that my instincts were absolutely right,” he said in a video interview at the end of March. “The operation is clearly not going to plan, because the plan was full of contradictions.”

Russia’s attack was based on a deeply flawed assessment of Ukraine; assumed that its army would not fight or would defect; and counted on the people shifting their allegiance to Russia. “The operation is stuck on all fronts,” he concluded.

If Russia is unable to win, it will “simply drown in the Ukrainian mud,” added Strelkov. His logic goes as follows: No compromise is possible with Ukraine. The country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is completely under the control of the United States. And Washington is telling Zelenskyy that Ukraine must fight “until Russia falls apart.”

He returned to the theme in an April 12 interview, warning that signing a peace deal and withdrawing troops “will mean our capitulation.”

Russian troops in the north have suffered the same fate as the Soviet Red Army in the Winter War with Finland in 1939-40, says Strelkov, while in the Donbas he doubts they will be able to surround the Ukrainian troops. “If our forces advance at the speed of a limping invalid this could take a long time,” he says.

Two days later he mocks Russia’s ministry of defense for threatening to hit strategic targets in Kyiv in retaliation against Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. He compares it to “trying to scare a hedgehog by showing it your bare bottom.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/sold...ks-in-ukraine/

[ExomatrixTV]

• Russia Launches MASSIVE Missile Barrage - Hitting POWER PLANTS for first time

• dutch 🇳🇱 (+ Multi-Language Options). 🦜🦋🌳

TOTAL BLACKOUT: Russia launches MASSIVE barrages of missiles – hitting POWER PLANTS for the first time

[ExomatrixTV]

• Is the War in Ukraine Part of a U.S. Strategy to Weaken Germany? RAND Says, “YES”!

[kfm27917]

Putin’s problems aren’t just on the battlefield
The Russian president must now contend with an unusual level of criticism of his commanders’ competence in Ukraine.


Ukraine’s rout of the Russian army in the northeastern region of Kharkiv presents President Vladimir Putin with a political as well as military headache.

The Kremlin’s efforts to create a glowing propaganda narrative about its war in Ukraine are in tatters, as popular loyalist bloggers, think-tankers and even politicians start to ask uncomfortable questions about the defeat on the front lines.

For now, their anger is aimed exclusively at Russia’s senior military command, but Putin still needs to proceed with caution in the face of this unusual crackle of dissent. If he fails to react to the complaints against his commanders, political pressure could mount on his autocratic regime.

On Sunday, Ramzan Kadyrov, the maverick and authoritarian leader of Russia’s Chechen Republic, accused Moscow’s military command of “mistakes” in the Kharkiv region, where Russian troops were hastily withdrawn from the strategically important town of Izyum and Kupiansk, a major railway junction near the border with Russia.


“Unless there are changes in the strategy for conducting the special military operation today or tomorrow, I will have to go to the leadership of the defense ministry, to the country’s leadership to explain the real situation on the ground,” he said in a recorded voice statement, published on his Telegram channel.

Kadyrov’s own soldiers have a dire reputation, accused by the Ukrainians of war crimes in the town of Bucha early in the war and of making staged TikTok videos to promote their fabricated heroics, but the Chechen leader is significant because he is personally loyal to Putin and has proved his willingness to commit forces to the war.

He is the highest level figure to openly slam the country’s top brass, but he’s far from alone.

Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst and former parliamentarian with Putin’s ruling United Russia party, slammed Moscow’s anniversary celebrations on Saturday, during which Putin somewhat surreally inaugurated a new giant Ferris wheel before a night-time fireworks display, just as news of Ukrainian victories was spreading quickly.

“The celebrations now look like a political mistake. An equivalent of a feast in time of plague. It is clear that they [the Moscow authorities] did not want to cancel them, in order not to cause panic,” said the politician, who in previous years vigorously backed the separatist movement in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. “But the participation of the president speaks even more about the confusion of the authorities.”

He also said that the fireworks in Moscow “on the tragic day of a heavy military defeat for Russia” should have been canceled by the authorities, pointing to possible harm to Putin’s reputation in the eyes of his electorate. “The government should not celebrate when people are grieving.”

Sergei Mironov, leader of the A Just Russia party, which backs the Kremlin, cautiously joined the criticism of the celebration.

He urged the Moscow authorities “to postpone” fireworks “until victory” over Ukraine. “This will be respectful of those who on this day, with weapons in their hands, risking their lives, defend all of Russia, all of its inhabitants thousands of kilometers away from their homes.”

Destroyed armored vehicles litter the road in Balakliya, Kharkiv region | Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images
Meanwhile, the anger of many Russian military bloggers was leveled against the clumsy information tactics of the Russian defense ministry, which refrained from making any comments on the situation in the Kharkiv region over the first days of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

Bloggers also heavily criticized the Russian authorities for their inability to ensure a proper withdrawal from the Kharkiv region of those residents who backed the Russian occupation, and wanted to leave the region for Russia before the swift advance of Ukrainian troops.

Alexei Chadayev, a political think-tanker loyal to the Kremlin, believes that the Russian army “as a whole, as a structure, in its current form — to put it mildly — has limited suitability for modern warfare.”

“The key defects lie not in the ability to gather manpower, supply, weapons, and not even in management as such, but in the level of strategic thinking, the quality of understanding of the rhythm and logic of the confrontation,” he said on Saturday, commenting on Russia’s rout.

He added that the latest defeat of Russian troops “is becoming more and more reminiscent” of the disaster which the Soviet Union’s Red Army faced in almost exactly the same territory in World War II. It was here that the Germans launched Operation Fredericus, delivering a major blow to the Red Army which was encircled and lost some quarter of a million killed and wounded.

“We either fight or surrender, there is no third option. So let’s decide. But if you ask me, I’m in favor of fighting,” Chadayev added.

https://www.politico.eu/article/puti...e-battlefield/

[Bill Ryan]

A lengthy, detailed and extremely interesting piece from The Saker. Too long to copy here, but as the title suggests this is all about the significant effect of psyops in the current military conflict — and also in the propagandized media circus that surrounds and engulfs it.

On the role and importance of PSYOPs for the SMO (warning – long discussion!)

• http://thesaker.is/on-the-role-and-i...ong-discussion

[Bill Ryan]

A sobering report, which is very hard to read.

The original Russian is here.

https://t.me/EurasianChoice/19704