WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

[avid]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/stat...69729861197824

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/stat...69824492920832

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/stat...68119207018497

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https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1568554902078439424

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https://www.rt.com/news/562534-hunga...aine-eu-czech/

Hungary on ‘edge of abyss’ in EU — Czech minister

Hungary’ stance on Russia and the conflict in Ukraine could potentially see it exiting the EU, the Czech European affairs minister has warned.

The EU is “a unity of many voices” that always finds common ground despite any disputes, Mikulas Bek told Cesky Rozhlas Plus radio on Thursday.

“Negotiations are often tough in the EU, and many countries could engage in them. But Hungary, in my opinion, has come a long way, reaching the edge an abyss, and now it has to decide whether to go back from that edge or risk a jump, the consequences of which I don’t even want to speculate on,” the minister said.

On the prospects of Budapest leaving the EU altogether, Bek said it’s theoretically possible.

Budapest has remained relatively neutral since the launch of Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine in late February, and refused to send weapons to Kiev unlike many of its neighbors. It has been critical of the EU sanctions against Russia, calling them ill-conceived and self-defeating. Hungary, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy, is exempt from the bloc-wide ban on Russian oil.

READ MORE: Hungary explains what weakened EU
The Czech European affairs minister, whose country currently presides over the EU Council, pledged to work hard in the coming months to make sure Hungary stays in line with European policies.

“A small positive sign” was that Budapest backed down on its demand to remove three prominent Russia businessmen – Alisher Usmanov, Pyotr Aven and Viktor Rashnikov – from EU sanctions earlier this week, Mikulas Bek added.

Talk about cutting one’s nose off to spite one’s face, or shooting oneself in the foot, at normal people’s expense to drive a vile agenda. Totally corrupt. Criminal.

[Bill Ryan]

This is almost a placeholder personal opinion, while I'm/we're waiting for more definitive news that can somehow be verified.

Way too much to even try to post, but the pro-Russian comments are still a mix of angry (even outraged), and very calm and measured. The 'calm and measured' analysis is best so far epitomized by this 15 minute summary from Brian Berletic at The New Atlas.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=n3zNxBahukU

These words of his, at the close of his video, are worth quoting. I think they're true.

If you're excited about this offensive, temper your hopes. And if you're panicking over this offensive, temper your panic.
Go back to the fundamentals of what wins a war truly, and what makes good headlines temporarily. I think you will see how this is going to conclude.

That's very nicely put, and I'll add my own far less polished opinion.

There's no way the Russians, with all their military might behind them and most of that still in reserve, are going to quietly suffer the indignity (and the bad PR, with the whole world watching) of a sharp punch in the nose. But a punch in the nose is all it is, though as Berletic correctly stated, it makes good screaming headlines everywhere in the west.

And there'll be immense pressure on Putin to make a strong, swift definitive statement... on the battlefield. All this is happening relatively close to the Russian border, and they already have tens of thousands of professional soldiers ready to advance and assist the Donbass militia — who again as Mashika posted here very evocatively — were for a short while terribly let down.

Berletic said "I think you will see how this is going to conclude" — and my guess is that we'll see a great deal happening over the next 48 hours that will restore and entirely fix the situation from the Russian point of view. The headlines in the west won't suddenly be amended or deleted, but Putin won't care at all about that.

His only focus is on the strategic direction of it all, like a chess player, already a bishop, a knight and a rook up, suddenly losing a couple of pawns. A few pieces will need to be repositioned to continue to control the center of the board, but it won't affect the result of the game.

[9ideon]

Below is what our Glorious "Free" Press is reporting. Can anyone confirm if that retreat from Izyum is truly given? I have a hard time believing that.

Translation

The Russian Ministry of Defence says that Russian troops in Ukrainian region of Kharkiv must withdraw. According to Moscow, it is about the troops at the cities of Izhum and Balakleya. Russia says it is too transfer the troops to Donbas.

Balakleya was already in Ukrainian hands, but the Russian soldiers at Izyum threaten to be trapped by the rapid advance of the Ukrainian army.

Earlier in the day, Kupyansk, a strategic located railway junction, was also recaptured by Ukraine. Izhum was taken in the spring by the Russians after a fierce battle.

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by 9ideon (here)
Below is what our Glorious "Free" Press is reporting. Can anyone confirm if that retreat from Izyum is truly given? I have a hard time believing that.

It seems to be the case, though near the end of his latest video update just published, Alexander Mercouris said he'd just seen a few reports that question whether it really was a full retreat. We'll know more pretty soon, of course.

Mercouris makes the important point, which I did not in my post above, that whether or not this is critically militarily important (and it's probably not), it's a huge psychological issue for both sides.

That's not to be underestimated, and a PR victory is almost as important as a military one. Moreover, there's the real effect on the local pro-Russian Ukrainian population, who in some places have been abandoned after all the reassurances they believed were in place, and may even now be being punished, even murdered, in pretty violent ways by the newly occupying Ukrainian soldiers for their "lack of loyalty to Ukraine".

[Bill Ryan]

The Russian MoD reports:

~~~

In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbass, a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakleya and Izyum regions to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.
To this end, within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakley group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic. During this operation, a number of distraction and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops.
In order to prevent damage to Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery.
Over three days, more than two thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters were destroyed, as well as over a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery.

~~~

The losses of the Ukrainians in the Kharkov counter-offensive were also reported — between 2,500 and 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, compared to the Russians having suffered almost no casualties at all.

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
The Russian MoD reports:

~~~

In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbass, a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakleya and Izyum regions to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.
To this end, within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakley group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic. During this operation, a number of distraction and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops.
In order to prevent damage to Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery.
Over three days, more than two thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters were destroyed, as well as over a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery.

~~~

The losses of the Ukrainians in the Kharkov counter-offensive were also reported — between 2,500 and 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, compared to the Russians having suffered almost no casualties at all.

A short new article by Bernhard at The Moon of Alabama, citing the Russian MoD's statement above.

• https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/0...um-region.html

Russian Military Explains its Withdrawal from the Izium Region

Since September 4, when the Ukrainian operation north of Izium started, the Russia Defense Ministry had said nothing about the issue.

Today it finally published a statement.

Has that been the plan all along? In retrospect that seems likely.

The Russian military must have know that the Ukrainian attack was coming. There was only light resistance against the Ukrainian attack. Major Russian units had already been moved out of the area. The region did not have any public priority in Russian planning. A larger fight would have cost many Russian soldier and civilian lives.

So there were no cunning plans to surround the Ukrainian forces and no real disaster or success on either side.

Well, that is at least what the Russian military says. It also fits to the known facts.

There may be another reason why the Russian military did not want to fight for Izium. In May 1942, during the Second Battle of Kharkov, a Soviet counterattack on Nazi held Kharkov was defeated by two preplanned Nazi attacks south and north of Izium.


bigger

The names on the map will look familiar to those who have followed the current battle over the past days.

The Soviet counterattack ended in a bloody defeat:

On 17 May, the German 3rd Panzer Corps and XXXXIV Army Corps under the command of Fedor von Bock, supported by aircraft, arrived, enabling the Germans to launch Operation Fridericus, pushing back the Soviet Barvenkovo bridgehead to the south. On 18 May, [Marshal Semyon] Timoshenko requested permission to fall back, but Stalin rejected the request. On 19 May, Paulus launched a general offensive to the north as Bock's troops advanced in the south, thus attempting to surround the Soviets in the Izium salient. Realizing the risk of having entire armies surrounded, Stalin authorized the withdraw, but by that time the Soviet forces were already started to be closed in. On 20 May, the nearly surrounded Soviet forces mounted counteroffensives, but none of the attempts were successful in breaking through the German lines. The Soviets achieved some small victories on 21 and 22 May, but by 24 May, they were surrounded near Kharkov.
...
The Second Battle of Kharkov resulted in an extremely costly loss to the Soviets, which saw 207,000 men killed, wounded, or captured; some estimates put the number as high as 240,000. Over 1,000 Soviet tanks were destroyed during this battle, as well as the loss of 57,000 horses. German losses were much smaller than the Soviets, with over 20,000 killed, wounded, or captured. Soviet General Georgy Zhukov later blamed this major defeat on Stalin, who underestimated German strength in the region and failed to prepare an adequate reserve force to counter the arrival of the German reinforcement that turned the tide.

So it's on towards Donbass.

[Bill Ryan]

Paul Craig Roberts has posted his very strong take on the current situation in Ukraine. He too, is urging Putin to take the gloves off and deal with this conflict once and for all. Roberts is no fool, nor is he a Putin critic, and so I think his arguments need to be considered seriously.

(The article is supposed to have been published on RT.com, but so far I can't find the original source.)

~~~

"The Kremlin’s attempt to fight a war with minimal resources and no commitment to disrupt the government and functioning of Western Ukraine and the weapons flowing in from the US and NATO now brings the humiliation of having Ukrainian troops break through Russia’s thinly defended line in the Kharkov region of Eastern Ukraine.

I would be surprised if Russia, by far the superior power, doesn’t quickly regain control over the military situation in Donbass. But the Ukrainian success, no matter how limited or temporary, has doomed Putin’s “limited operation,” which, as I have emphasized, was doomed from the beginning.

It was doomed from the beginning by the Kremlin’s ridiculous assumption that Washington would permit the operation to be limited. The widening of the war was guaranteed. The fact that the war has widened is now understood by Russian TV hosts who say the proxy war in Ukraine between the US and Russia is over and Russia now faces a real direct war with the US and its NATO puppets.

For Russia to continue in Ukraine, the Kremlin must fight a real war and knock out the government in Kiev and the governmental and civilian infrastructure that permits Ukraine to conduct war without Russian interference and which permits supply avenues for ever more dangerous Western weapons to be acquired by Ukraine. It is stunning that Putin thought he could drive Ukrainian troops out of Donbass and then sign an agreement ending the conflict.

The Ukrainian success in overrunning Russian positions will widen the war further. Europe’s enthusiasm which was waning will wax again, and Washington will up the provocations to increase the pressure on Putin.

Neoconservatives will push for beefing up the US/NATO forces on Russia’s borders and trouble-making in former, but now independent, Russian provinces at the risk of convincing Russia that a broad scale invasion of Russia is being prepared while Russia is trapped in Ukraine. If this happens, it will light the fuse of nuclear war.

The Kremlin dropped the ball when the Kremlin permitted Washington to overthrow the Ukraine government and install a Russian-hating puppet. The Kremlin dropped the ball again when eight years ago the Kremlin let pass the opportunity to reincorporate Donbass into Russia, thus ending the conflict before it could begin.

The Kremlin dropped the ball again when it launched a limited military operation confined to Donbass when what was called for was a lightning takedown of Ukraine before the West could respond.

What accounts for these strategic blunders by the Kremlin? I don’t know for sure. My speculation is that Putin was won over by globalism and has as his goal for Russia to be an accepted member of the West’s global order.

This goal has imposed all sorts of restrictions on his range of action. Putin couldn’t accept the requests of the Donbass republics to be brought back home to Russia, because it would confirm the West’s propaganda that he intended to rebuild the Soviet empire.

Putin couldn’t authorize a blitzkrieg conquest of Ukraine, because it would scare Europe into Washington’s arms forever. Putin has to operate within the confines of international law that Washington and NATO ignore in his effort to prove that Russia adheres to law and resorts to force only as a last resort.

Putin’ solution was agreements, such as the Minsk Agreement on which the Kremlin wasted eight years and the mutual security agreement the Kremlin attempted to get from Washington and NATO prior to the limited operation in Ukraine.

Why so much emphasis on agreements even while the Kremlin rightfully complained endlessly of Washington breaking every agreement? It suggests that the Kremlin’s overriding goal has been to have Russia have its rightful place in the Western system, which left the Kremlin reactive, having denied itself a proactive policy of targeting its enemy.

To have such an unrealistic goal requires ignoring the Wolfowitz Doctrine of US Hegemony. It requires ignoring that the massive power and budget of the US military/security complex requires Russia as America’s #1 enemy.

It was Trump’s goal of normalizing relations with Russia that brought about President Trump’s downfall. In the face of such powerful evidence as Trump’s demise, how was it possible for the Kremlin to hold on to its delusions and continue to speak of “our Western partners?”

In many ways Putin is a great leader and a man of peace, but he has seriously miscalculated the real situation. His tolerance of insults and provocations has encouraged more, and the provocations are on the verge of initiating a war that will destroy the Western world.

[Bill Ryan]

A colorful and strong statement from Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister — though again, I cannot find the original source.

~~~

A tactical retreat in certain sectors of the front was necessary to save the lives of Russian soldiers and create a base for the formation of a full-fledged retaliatory strike and seizing the initiative in this direction . The enemy threw all his reserves on the counteroffensive and suffered huge irreparable losses. The Ukrainian government is in a stalemate.

At the same time, many Ukrainian generals were against the counteroffensive, but the clown Zelensky decided to take a chance in order to create a hype in the media and the appearance of the combat capability of the army. For the sake of this adventure, all the best units, mercenaries and almost all types of NATO weapons were thrown into hell.

Currently, they are systematically destroyed. There is no doubt that when the loss figures become the property of the Ukrainian public, popular discontent will become an even greater problem for Kyiv than Russian troops.

In conclusion, it must be said that the situation has become an occasion for unreasonable panic in the Russian media. Possessing incomplete information, many resources draw incorrect conclusions, mislead people, which only plays into the hands of the enemy. On the battlefield, things are much more complex, and there are many factors to consider.

[Ravenlocke]

The Paul Craig Roberts article is here on IPE, Institute for Political Economy

https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/202...p-in-his-face/

[Tintin]

This, recorded on September 9th, sums up the most likely actual reality of the recent Ukrainian/NATO (?) advance around Izium.

I don't agree with Paul Craig Roberts, and there has been an interesting 'panic' going on which does suggest that some Russian Telegram channels have to some extent fallen for the Ukrainian PR - Lavrov has nailed it similarly in his comments in Bill's post here.

The essential way to be viewing this latest Kharkhiv offensive is by applying some good grounded sense: Russia will not expose its troops to a casualty high-risk combat situation which serves no overall strategic purpose of the military operation. A decision was obviously made to pull troops away from Izium for redeployment elsewhere.

If the numbers of Ukraine forces and reservists really did total 30,000 plus for one operation then they, in my view, have expended considerable resources - and casualties - so doing achieving very little real gain whatsoever.

Russian intel didn't drop the ball here, but a decision was clearly made somewhere to retreat, tactically, to spare Russian forces lives.

In the meantime the Ukrainians continue to suffer horrendous casualties. Ritter estimates from direct and open sources that some 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers may have died or been wounded in undertaking, and i paraphrase Scott here: "..one of the dumbest military operations in history." And Russia will no doubt be strafing those Ukrainian positions from the air, as I write, and with cruise missile launches.

That's more likely. Of course I'm not there and don't have a satellite view of ground operations and troop patterns, but that will most certainly be a more likely scenario than the touted Ukrainian 'victory' It's still a terrible carnage for them.

Anyway, here's what Scott has to say with Judge Andrew Napolitano:

Scott Ritter - Ukraine Russia War Latest

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=HBm1n5yNVO4

[Tintin]

And, more level-headedness here:



Link: https://t.me/ConflictChronicles/3712

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Tintin (here)
And, more level-headedness here:

More from Gonzalo Lira, as well. (I don't have the link. This is copied from 41:30 on Jackson' Hinkle's video update here.)

~~~

So! After reading up as much as I could, it's clear that the Kharkov offensive is a clear win for the Zelensky regime.

But there are caveats:

1. The victory came at enormous cost. The Russians suffered comparatively light casualties.
2. This victory doesn't make up for the horrifying losses in the disastrous Kherson offensive.
3. Most important of all, this victory doesn't affect the rest of the frontline. The Donbas is being retaken, Kherson and Zaparozhyia are firmly in the Russians' hands.

There's no question this will be a morale booster for the Zelensky regime. But can they leverage it to attain more victories on the battlefield? Recapture a big city? Will it change the outcome of the war?

Look at any map. The answer to these questions is obvious.

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1568945066713956355

[Bill Ryan]

A well-written opinion comment posted on The Moon of Alabama's blog a few hours ago. This man is clearly intelligent, aware and very concerned.

I understand all his points. I think two things are certain amidst all the confusion:

1. There will be intense and maybe heated discussion in the Kremlin, right at this very moment.
2. The possible fate of abandoned and unevacuated Russian-supporting civilians, at brutal Ukrainian hands, is not to be underestimated. I most earnestly hope that this does not come to pass, and despite their retreat, the Russians will most certainly be aware of this.

What is likely now, it seems to me, is very visible Russian military escalation, at least to some marked degree. Because of all the logistics, it'll take a few days, and can never be as fast as social media speculation or demand. But I'd be certain retaliation in strong measure is being prepared right now.

It's necessary militarily, and also necessary socially and politically (not just within Russia, but in the entire global south, which is watching closely to see if Russia is strong, really does have deep resources, and can trusted to keep their word.)

• https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/0...a30d4cb1d3200b

~~~

I appreciate these articles and most of the comments. I'm in the USA, just trying to understand what is really happening, and sympathetic to the Russian cause because I know the corruption and decadence of the US/West as caused and controlled by the Globalist Bankers and their Homosexual Agenda to destroy the Church and Family. My great-grandfather was a Russian Orthodox priest from Odessa who emigrated to the USA in the early 1900s.

I, too, am shocked and appalled by the latest news of the Russian "strategic advance to the rear". What will happen to the civilians who trusted in the protection of the RF, and who now are unable to escape? Sounds like a great way to turn friends into enemies. I have been growing increasingly skeptical of the Russian MoD daily reports. Reminds me of the US body counts from Vietnam. By the end of that conflict, the US had killed every North Vietnamese soldier three times over.

I have read Martyanov, Saker, and others, dismiss concerns while extolling the Russian General Staff as comprised of Super-Elite Military geniuses who have foreseen every possible outcome. Well now, it appears to me that Russian/Donbass/Chechen/Wagner forces have not advanced further because they CANNOT, not because they choose not to. And somehow Ukraine still has planes flying, fuel depots, ammunition, trains running, electricity flowing, not because Russia chooses NOT to blow everything up, but because Russia CANNOT blow everything up. At least not within the limited context of the SMO.

And now Paul Craig Roberts (much aligned by the above 'experts') is being proven correct: Putin's limited SMO is a huge miscalculation. PCR is not a military expert, but he understands the Western globalist financial mind. And he says what I have believed from Day 1, the West will NEVER allow Russia to win, will NEVER allow Ukraine to fall. They cannot. It would be the end of their system of dollar hegemony. The entire world will be sacrificed to prevent a Russian victory.

Do Russians believe the West will ALLOW Russia to keep all of 'their' oil and gas? NEVER. Energy is the lifeblood of modern life, and the West will take it by force, if they can. Russia can temporarily turn off the spigots, but they must be prepared to defend their resources with military might. Russian fan-boys can chuckle about Europe shooting itself in the foot with sanctions, but NATO troops will attack Moscow before Europe freezes in a cold winter.

Even a full retreat back to Russia will NOT end this war. The Globalists in charge of US/NATO know this is it, for all the marbles. Russia needs to act accordingly, before Nukes fly.

[9ideon]

Even a full retreat back to Russia will NOT end this war. The Globalists in charge of US/NATO know this is it, for all the marbles. Russia needs to act accordingly, before Nukes fly

Nato attacking Russia has always been part of my expectations, see here for more detailed info on this. The writer of the article Bill Quoted is right though. My initial time-frame for Ukraine to fall was 2-4 weeks, this was based on Russia using its full force though.

Despite my time-frame being off a little (lol), many rhetoric comments by various "leaders" have been spewed out in the meantime and the West has increased its involvement through funding Ukraine by proxy (Corporations for instance) and by direct means. It gave Russia a bonus feature, namely, direct knowledge for sure about who's on their side or not.

Are People forgetting that Nato has amassed 300K troops on the Eastern Border (front) of Europe? Look at my Topic here for why this is important, GB has fully mobilized and many of the Western countries have elevated their threat level for both Civilian and Russian "aggression"?

Full war on Ukraine might not be necessary and a priority, taking the Western border at Poland should be, therefore and without doubt, full war (Ukraine) must become an option.

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1568944623309012993

https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/s...36096037502976

https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/s...26091649388545

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Kharkov direction at 13:00 on 11 September 2022⚡️

Currently, Russian units continue to reconfigure the front in the Kharkov direction. The withdrawal of the Russian Forces from the line Uda - Kazachya Lopan - Bolshie Prokhody has begun.

▪️ Russian Forces maintain a limited presence, covering convoys with refugees leaving for the territory of Russian Federation. East of Seversky Donets, separate AFU mobile groups have so far reached the #Khotomlya - Bolshoy Burluk line. In the north, Russian units continue to evacuate civilians.

▪️ On Bolshoy Burluk, the AFU has carried out shelling due to lack of coordination between Ukrainian units, although there were only civilians in the settlement itself.

▪️ Russian Forces continue to level the front along the Oskol River and bring reinforcements to the left bank. In the vicinity of #Oskol village, units of the 60 OMSB "Veterans" hold the road and secure the withdrawal of certain groups of refugees.

▪️ Near the village of #Senkovo, Russian Forces army aviation destroyed an AFU pontoon crossing.

@Slavyangrad/@rybar/#SMO/ t.me/SLG_MAPS/29

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https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/s...33165837991936

[Bill Ryan]

A long, high-quality analysis from Larry Johnson. He argues, convincingly, that the Russians had at least a week's notice of Ukraine's offensive plans, and responded deliberately and accordingly.

• https://sonar21.com/understanding-pl...nts-in-ukraine

Understanding Planning, Orders and Troop Movements in Ukraine

PATTON, the movie, was a masterpiece of entertainment. It is not historically accurate on many points and that is a problem with respect to Ukraine. What? I suspect some of you believe I have really crossed over to crazy land, but hear me out.

Remember that scene when the Germans launched the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944 and Patton saved the day by “immediately” diverting his Army 90 degrees to head north and rescue the beleaguered paratroopers of the 101st and 82nd airborne regiments (note, the paratroopers insisted they did not need to be rescued, but that’s another story for another day)?

That cinema account of how Patton planned and shifted the axis of attack of his troops is presented as something hastily put together. The German offensive started on 16 December and Patton met with Eisenhower on the 19th of December and received orders to relieve Bastogne.

Patton’s troops moved out on the 22nd of December and reached Bastogne on the 26th. What the movie account fails to convey is that the planning for moving his Army north began on December 9, ten days before the emergency conference with Eisenhower.

Patton’s J-2 (i.e., his intel chief) briefed the following on 9 December:

1. By the end of October four panzer divisions had been identified refitting near Paderborn, far north of the Third Army’s left boundary.
2. By November 10 the Germans had pulled five more panzer divisions out of the line.
3. Of the fifteen panzer divisions in the west, only five remained in contact in mid-November.
4. Starting November 17, aerial reconnaissance detected huge German rail movements to the north of the Third Army’s projected zone of advance—226 trains on November 18 alone.
5. By November 23 Koch had identified the newly established Sixth Panzer Army, including five of its reconstituted panzer divisions.
6. On December 2 the U.S. Seventh Army, to the south of Third Army, reported that the formidable Panzer Lehr Division was out of the line.
7. By December 7 the Germans were holding at least thirteen divisions in reserve.

(I encourage you to read the whole article about the real story of Patton’s rescue effort at the link above.)

So why is this important? The process any first world army (e.g., United States, Russia, Ukraine) follows in moving troops and equipment from one point to a distant location follows a well-defined planning process.
The planning process Patton followed is similar to what the U.S. military uses today. The current system is known as the Joint Operation Planning and Execution System aka JOPES.

I have been involved in scripting and executing over 240 crisis response exercises. I worked for 23 years for the man who wrote JOPES, so I have some insight to the process. He beat it into me.

It starts with an Alert Order (e.g. Be Prepared to Act) usually followed Warning Order (e.g., Houston we have a specific problem, tell us how you plan to solve it). The military command that receives the warning order immediately tasks it staff to prepare Courses of Action aka COAs.

Those COAs are then sent back via a written message laying out what forces would be used, what resources (i.e., air support, artillery, vehicles, medical, etc.) are required to carry out the COA. The COA for organizing and deploying a Special Operations unit is much easier and less time consuming than that required to organize and deploy battalions and regiments of soldiers.

Once the COA is approved the relevant military units receive a Deployment Order. It means what it says. The military units identified for action start moving via train, truck or plane. Depends on the operation. But they are moving into place and do not initiate action until they commanders receive an Execution Order.

Since the United States and NATO are involved directly with Ukraine’s military planning, I am certain they followed the JOPES process. That means the planning for the Kharkov offensive probably started the first of September, perhaps even earlier, i.e. July or August. Assembling and moving the men and equipment to deployment points took some time. It was not done overnight.

I am not familiar with the Russian planning system, but I am pretty sure the Russians follow a similar procedure to JOPES. It is important to understand this with reference to the offensive taking place around Kharkov. The Russian forces started moving into the area on Thursday, 8 September. And we are talking about hundreds of trucks, tanks, towed artillery and troops.

So, was Russia caught by surprise? No. They had at least one week’s warning of the impending Ukrainian attack. If you want to believe that Russia’s intelligence service is incompetent or was deceived in this operation, enjoy the fantasy. The Russian planners had a couple of choices. They could have moved their forces into position earlier but that would have tipped off the Ukrainians and west that the planned offensive was compromised.

Alternatively, the Russian planners may have decided to mask their movements and made choices about which villages and cities to defend and which to abandon. If Russia had moved preemptively to reinforce Izyum that would have raised warning flags for the Ukrainian and NATO planners.

I agree with Andrei Martyanov’s take – the Russians knew it was coming and chose to let the Ukrainians flood the zone in order to eventually hit the Ukrainian forces with a massive counter attack.

The Ukrainians are no longer in fortified defensive positions and their lines of communication to support the forward troops are now defined precisely. The Ukrainian attack has not destroyed nor disrupted Russia’s air, artillery, rocket and missile assets. Attacking the Ukrainian units is an easier task, not more difficult.

I am not privy to the Russian plan. But what I do know is that the planning process required to deploy the troops and equipment moving into Kharkov was not a panicked response.

Hollywood can create the illusion of rapid movement of military troops, but the real world requires alerting units, making sure they are properly supplied and then undertaking the logistic task of moving those units into combat. This means the planning was deliberate, not a crisis response.

[Ravenlocke]

Rumors now,

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/...49513397624840

https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status...38917197676545

https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/sta...47771448905730

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status...38733608763393

Is there a transcript anywhere? I'd really like to read/hear exactly what he said.

[9ideon]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
https://twitter.com/ivan_8848/status...38733608763393
1568938733608763393

Is there a transcript anywhere? I'd really like to read/hear exactly what he said.

Have not found any, but keep an eye on this page, it will probably be updated soon.