WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

[BMJ]

Posted by Vicus (here)

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=g8FJbGvUpAU

I could listen to Gonzalo Lira, Scott Ritter and Douglas McGregor 24/7, these guys are right on the money about Ukraine.

Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/ColonelDou...cgregor/videos

Link: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfU...GbEBgkg/videos

Link: https://www.youtube.com/@scottrittershow/streams

[Bill Ryan]

https://t.me/intelslava/44202
https://t.me/intelslava/44236

[Vicus]

History for adults

How many times was Russia invaded?

Mongol invasion of Kievan Rus' (1237–1242), a series of invasions that resulted in the Rus' states becoming vassals of the Golden Horde.
Livonian campaign against Rus' (1240–1242), an unsuccessful Teutonic invasion of the Novgorod and Pskov Republics, in order to convert them to Catholicism.
Russo-Crimean Wars (1570–1572), an Ottoman invasion that penetrated Russia and destroyed Moscow.
Polish–Muscovite War (1609–1618), Poland gained Severia and Smolensk.
Ingrian War (1610–1617), a Swedish invasion which captured Novgorod and Pskov.
Swedish invasion of Russia (1708–1709), an unsuccessful Swedish invasion, as part of the Great Northern War (1700–1721).
French invasion of Russia (1812), an unsuccessful invasion by Napoleon's French Empire and its allies, as part of the Napoleonic Wars (1803–1815).
Crimean War (1853–1856), a series of conflicts between the Ottoman Empire, the British Empire, the French Empire, Sardinia, and the Russian Empire, including an Allied invasion of the Crimean Peninsula.
Japanese invasion of Sakhalin (1905), an invasion and annexation by the Japanese, as part of the Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905).
Eastern Front (World War I) (1914–1918), Russia was forced to cede Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states to Germany as the Russian Empire collapsed.
Caucasus campaign (1914–1918), a series of conflicts between the Russian Empire, its various successor states, and the Ottoman Empire during World War I.
Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War (1918–1925) and the contemporaneous Polish–Soviet War (1918/9–1921), the Polish occupation of Belarus and West Ukraine.
Japanese intervention in Siberia (1918–1922), an occupation of the Russian Far East by Japanese soldiers during the Russian Civil War (1917–1923).
Operation Barbarossa (1941), an unsuccessful invasion of the Soviet Union led by Nazi Germany that started the Eastern Front (World War II) of 1941–1945.
Continuation War (1941–1944), an unsuccessful German-Finnish invasion of the Soviet Union, as part of World War II.
Kantokuen (1941), an aborted plan for a major Japanese invasion of the Russian Far East during World War II.
Operation Unthinkable (1945), a proposed contingency plan for an Anglo-American invasion of the Soviet Union developed by the British Chiefs of Staff during the later stages of World War II.
War of Dagestan (1999), a repulsed Chechen invasion of Dagestan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Russia

I got news for you. USA citizens...

How Russia Helped The 13 Colonies Win The American Revolution:

https://themillenniumreport.com/2017...an-revolution/



U.S. Civil War: The US-Russian Alliance that Saved the Union:

https://www.voltairenet.org/article169488.html

Maybe now people can understand why for Russia is an existential issue...

[Bill Ryan]

GOOD — and about time too.

https://t.me/intelslava/44273

[kfm27917]

interesting article - too long for me to publish with realistic battlefront loss assessments at
https://www.sott.net/article/477154-...Ukraine-crisis

[Gwin Ru]

...

... 2023.02.09 Confirmed: The Americans Destroyed Nordstream 11:35

Gonzalo Lira — Again
Premiered 2 hours ago

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-BcvjWArwD4

[rgray222]

Hungarian PM Viktor Orban the only EU leader that refused to clap for Zelensky

[Eva2]

'PUTIN'S MESSAGE TO THE WORLD - POWERFUL RED PILL!!'
'
"IITM: Well, who is against who??? But more importantly, who is with who, and who is with God??'


Source: https://www.bitchute.com/video/kGowz8gVWxfq

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Eva2 (here)
'PUTIN'S MESSAGE TO THE WORLD - POWERFUL RED PILL!!'
'
"IITM: Well, who is against who??? But more importantly, who is with who, and who is with God??'


Source: https://www.bitchute.com/video/kGowz8gVWxfq

Just a note: a powerful message, for sure. But I'm almost certain this is an extract from a speech a couple months ago, though it was published on Bitchute today.

[arwen]

The Covert Operation That Took Down The Nord Stream Pipeline (Greg Reese, 6 minutes)

[Hermoor]

[shaberon]

Posted by kfm27917 (here)
interesting article - too long for me to publish with realistic battlefront loss assessments at
https://www.sott.net/article/477154-...Ukraine-crisis

There was a bit more to it than morbidity. It did not fail to harp on "welcome to 2023":



What makes the RAND Report on Ukraine so significant, is not the quality of the analysis but the fact that the US's most prestigious national security think-tank has taken an opposite position on the war than the Washington political elite and their globalist allies. This is a very big deal.

Keep in mind, wars end when a critical split emerges between ruling elites that eventually leads to a change in policy. RAND report represents just such a split.



That is probably what losing pointlessly sounds like.

[Bill Ryan]

New major Russian missile strikes all over Ukraine:

https://t.me/intelslava/44323



And, interestingly, the 'Zelensky curse' continues:

https://t.me/intelslava/44350
https://t.me/intelslava/44351

[Bill Ryan]

30 high-quality minutes of Alexander Mercouris with Jeffrey Sachs. It's not just about the US sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, but also about US sabotage of the peace negotiations last year.

Nord Stream pipeline & sabotaging peace, with Jeffrey Sachs

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=ySNyAaw4VEI

[David Trd1]

Posted by kfm27917 (here)
interesting article - too long for me to publish with realistic battlefront loss assessments at
https://www.sott.net/article/477154-...Ukraine-crisis

This is a great commentary on the current state of play

[Bill Ryan]

We now have proof that western leaders are beginning to lose their minds.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Trollstoy...09200074551297

[Bill Ryan]

An extremely long, detailed and interesting piece, published on 4 Feb. It's dedicated to Andrei Raevsky, the Vineyard Saker, who's just announced his retirement from geopolitical analysis.

https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/prospects-for-world-war-3-dedicated

Prospects for World War 3

The entire article is way too long to copy here. But the following short extract felt very significant. Jumping to the very end of this brief section, this is stated:

[When it becomes clear to everyone that Odessa can’t be defended] this will be the most dangerous moment in the war. It is the moment where the West will need to decide whether it will surrender Ukraine or double down and intervene with Western troops. This is essentially the question over whether WW3 will happen or not.

~~~

The lynchpin – Odessa

The strategic lynchpin, whether there will be a Ukraine, going forward, or not, is Odessa. With Odessa, Ukraine could sustain some kind of economy, by accessing the Black Sea. Probably it would be enough, to continue an existence as a classic American failed state, like Libya and some others that I won’t name so as to not insult the people living there.

If Russia takes Odessa, or defeats the Ukrainian army somewhere else, so that Odessa could no longer be defended, then the war is over. Odessa is more important to Ukraine than Kiev itself.

Odessa is also one of the strategic goals, named by President Vladimir Putin, before he started the SMO. Read them in detail here. One of these goals is to bring justice to what happened in Odessa in 2014, when some fifty Russians were burned to death by Ukrainian nationalists. It is a personal goal of Vladimir Putin to take the city and seek justice for these deaths. Here are more reasons:

• It is a strategic city. Without it, there could never be something like “Ukraine” again. It wouldn’t be economically sustainable.
• It would give Russia the control of a big part of the Black Sea. In fact, Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea couldn’t be contested anymore. Not only not from the Sea, but also not from the land or air.
• Russia would have a deep outpost within the east flank of NATO, which is crucial. Think of radars, air bases, air defences, missile bases, fleet bases, marshalling grounds, etc.
• Odessa is a Russian city. Not just any Russian city. It is a highly important Russian city. It was built by a very popular Russian emperor, Katherine the Great. Moreover, it is a hero city. (See WW2 hero cities).
• Ukraine and the West will never accept peace with Russia as long as Russia holds territory that the West claims as well, such as Kherson, Crimea, etc. If the Russians would leave Odessa to Ukraine, under some kind of treaty, there would always be the danger that Ukraine rearms and uses Odessa and its access to the Black Sea to harm Russia. As we all know, and Russia knows even more, the West breaks ALL treaties that it signs.
• Odessa is the last step before Russia can reunify with Transnistria. This is a problem which certainly needs to be solved. And it needs to be solved now. And it will be solved now.

In fact, you can take these arguments and flipside them, then you have the reasons, why NATO (America) has a strategic interest to take Odessa. The arguments are essentially similar to these, why the West desperately wants to have Crimea. To be straightforward. Crimea and Odessa are by far more important to the West than Kiev or any other region of Ukraine. That’s why we always hear the talk about an offensive against Crimea. The question is, will the West have a strategic advantage against Russia or will Russia have a strategic advantage against NATO. The answer is obvious.

Considering all this, there is no chance in the world that Russia won’t take Odessa. No matter what agreements would be proposed, or what treaties, or whatever. Maybe there was a moment where it would have been possible. In Phase 1. MAYBE still in Phase 2. But since August 2022, all this is gone. There has been too much sacrifice to not go all the way through. In fact, it would be a huge insult in the face of all people, that died on the Russian side, both civilian and military.

Nevertheless, there will be an Odessa moment. The moment, when it is clear to everyone, that Odessa can’t be defended. I’ll give you here an incomplete list of cases, that could be considered as an “Odessa moment”:

• Siege of Odessa.
• Collapse of Ukrainian armed forces.
• Collapse of the Ukrainian state.
• Complete destruction of the Ukrainian army.
• Complete surrender of the Ukrainian army.
• Cutting Odessa off, further north. E.g., Transnistria.
• An approach to Odessa by the Russian army with no troops left to defend it from the South.

This will be the most dangerous moment in the war. It is the moment where the West will need to decide whether it will surrender Ukraine or double down and intervene with Western troops. This is essentially the question over whether WW3 will happen or not.

~~~

The whole article is well worth reading. To offer a summary, here's the conclusion — that there's a 90% chance (but not 100%) of avoiding World War 3.

Conclusion

The question that this article seeks to answer is about the prospect of a World War developing from the Ukraine crisis. I see a probability of 90% that the Ukraine war will not evolve into a World War. Unfortunately, 90% is still far from certain! There is still a possibility that the West will try to push proxy forces (Poland, Romania, Germany?) into Ukraine to create a bigger “local”/continental conflict, while the Americans focus on Asia. Here we are at 5%. And above that, there is a probability of 5% that the United States will directly intervene (See Odessa moment, etc.), which certainly would evolve into an instant World War.

• Peace after Ukrainian army is defeated (90%)
• Developing war between Russia and European proxies within Ukraine/Europe (5%)
• American intervention à World War 3 (5%).

That is, of course, still too high. We are talking about the human race.

Indeed, there are two major determining factors which will decide whether there will be an escalation or not:

The “Odessa moment” and the “Western Ukraine” moment.

• Odessa moment:
  The West will try to do what it can to avoid giving Odessa to the Russians. This is for strategic military considerations. If the Russians have it, they will have a strategic advantage and leverage over NATO. If NATO has it, the same applies to NATO against Russia.

• “Western Ukraine” moment:
  Here we are talking about Russia’s land access to Hungary and thereby to Serbia. Essentially, if Russia gets it, NATO and the EU is done. History. Not instantly, but within a reasonable number of years.

I can only leave you here and say that when one of these moments are imminent, start praying to whomever you are praying to.

Nevertheless, I want to end this article on a positive note. Since I AM positive. Everything depends on the decisions of the oligarchs in the United States. Are they willing to let Ukraine go or not when they are threatened with global annihilation?

These guys are not idiots. Sure, they want to possess power over others, but in the event of a nuclear war, they and their children will possess nothing. Exactly as everyone else.

Even though they seem to have no reverse gear and always doubling down, in this particular case I assume that they would do the right thing and vacate Ukraine. Why is there still a possibility of 10% of escalation? Well, Russia (BRICS) is engaged in escalation management, to provide a safe way for the Americans to transition into a normal state.

And here we come to the fact that not even the Americans and their oligarchs can control everything. It is possible that a crazy group of people, either within America or within Europe, could suddenly do something extremely stupid when they feel that the end is near. Think of Poles or the Baltic statelets or some extremely crazy American neoconservatives. The good thing is that I don’t give more than a 10% chance to such an idiotic chain of events.

[ExomatrixTV]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=505uQahvKvg

[ExomatrixTV]

• Elon Musk Just Shutdown Ukraine's Military With This One Move:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=pT5ksxLVroM

Elon Musk might've just stopped war crimes from being committed. Musk's SpaceX just shut down the Ukraine military's weaponizing of the Starlink internet service.

[ExomatrixTV]

• "We expected it:" Russian MP on UK fighter jets being potentially sent to Ukraine:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-e7VGkszGf0