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Thread: Global Shortages of Everything

  1. Link to Post #81
    UK Avalon Member Brigantia's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this. The tabloid newspapers in the UK often run competitions, to win things like cash, a holiday or a car.

    Looking at the website of the propaganda arm of the British government, the BBC, I took a look at the newspaper front pages and saw this on the front page of today's Sunday Express. It may or may not be the case that we will have energy shortages though it's looking likely, but the fact is that prices are rising so sharply (just before winter as well) that many people are going to have a lot of trouble in paying their bills.
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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    https://twitter.com/clif_high/status...512225797?s=20

    I don't believe anything, but I have many suspicions. - Robert Anton Wilson

    The present as you think of it, and in practical working terms, is that point at which you select your physical experience from all those events that could be materialized. - Seth (The Nature of Personal Reality - Session 656, Page 293)

    (avatar image: Brocken spectre, a wonderful phenomenon of nature I have experienced and a symbol for my aspirations.)

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    UK Avalon Member Brigantia's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    Here's another potential disruption to British supplies seeing as much of our food comes from Europe - a row between London and Paris over fishing rights.

    I do admire the direct action that the French have taken to keep their fishing and agriculture a profitable business, but the amount of foreign fleets that have been allowed to fish in British waters has decimated our domestic fishing fleet, driving many out of business.

    "France plans 'go slow' strategy on British lorries in retaliation over fishing row

    Paris is believed to be preparing a series of pre-Christmas reprisals if French fisherman (sic) are not granted greater access to British waters.

    France is preparing to implement a go-slow strategy for customs checks on shipments to and from Britain ahead of Christmas in an escalation of the post-Brexit war over fishing rights, officials fear.

    Paris will on Tuesday rubber-stamp a package of planned retaliatory measures that could be triggered if French fishermen are not granted greater access to Britain’s coastal waters.

    The Telegraph understands the prospect of French customs officials deliberately disputing cross-Channel trade is a chief concern amongst British officials.

    French fishing leaders are also threatening to blockade shipments in and out of Calais from Saturday morning unless they are granted more permits to operate off Britain’s coast.

    Jean Castex, France’s prime minister, will warn EU and UK negotiators - who on Monday continued high-stakes discussions over post-Brexit fishing licences - that they have until midnight on Friday to resolve the row.

    France is furious that the UK has approved just 15 permits for small French fishing boats to operate in the zone between six to 12 miles off its coast, out of 47 applications.

    The row threatens to plunge Franco-British relations to a new low. Paris and London have also been at odds over Channel migrant crossings and the UK’s Aukus nuclear submarine with Australia and the US, which cut out the French.

    Responding to mounting pressure from French trawlermen, Mr Castex will on Tuesday unveil a package of planned reprisals that could be triggered as early as November 1.

    It will include cutting energy supplies to the UK and Jersey and blocking Britain’s fishing fleet from entering French ports.

    He is unlikely to secure support for hitting British exports with trade tariffs from the European Commission or EU capitals, some of whom believe Mr Macron is using the row as part of his re-election campaign ahead of next year’s presidential ballot.

    But Paris could order its customs officials to cause backlogs by carrying out more physical checks on shipments between Britain and France, and vice-versa."

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  7. Link to Post #84
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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    In addition to the driver shortages already discussed here, the RAC is reporting that councils are now saying that they face a shortage of gritter drivers to clear icy and snowy roads. Let's hope for a mild winter, and drive safely everyone!

    "Roads could be left covered in snow and ice this winter – councils warn

    Motorists may face even more dangerous conditions than usual on the UK’s roads this winter due to a shortage of gritter drivers, councils have warned. 

    Local authorities admit their struggles to retain and recruit bin lorry drivers – which has disrupted refuse collections across several areas – could also affect gritters when harsher conditions prevail.
    Without enough gritter drivers to spread salt when the mercury drops, drivers risk facing extremely hazardous snowy and icy conditions on the roads.

    Councils are calling on the Government to work with them to 'address these short-term staffing issues to ensure people across the country can continue to receive the services they rely upon'.

    This follows the much-documented recent fuel-delivery crisis, with a shortage of HGV drivers affecting supply available at forecourts."

    (Full article here.)

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    Gravitas Plus: The Great Resignation. About alarming numbers of people quitting their jobs all over the world.

    31 Oct, 9.45 min

    Last edited by Bill Ryan; 30th October 2021 at 19:09. Reason: embedded the video

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    Quote Posted by gini (here)
    Gravitas Plus: The Great Resignation. About alarming numbers of people quitting their jobs all over the world.

    31 Oct, 9.45 min

    This is so very good news. What will happened if people don't work for some people? it will break the pyramid scheme of control. People have lost their job here too. I get inquiries for egg incubators and other equipment almost everyday. People are going to farms. That's another so very good news.

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    A long and very interesting piece from Ryan Johnson, a highly experienced truck driver in the US, published 4 days ago.

    https://medium.com/@ryan79z28/im-a-twenty-year-truck-driver-i-will-tell-you-why-america-s-shipping-crisis-will-not-end-bbe0ebac6a91

    I’m A Twenty Year Truck Driver. I'll Tell You Why America’s “Shipping Crisis” Will Not End.

    I have a simple question for every ‘expert’ who thinks they understand the root causes of the shipping crisis:

    Why is there only one crane for every 50–100 trucks at every port in America?

    No ‘expert’ will answer this question.

    I’m a Class A truck driver with experience in nearly every aspect of freight. My experience in the trucking industry of 20 years tells me that nothing is going to change in the shipping industry.

    Let’s start with understanding some things about ports. Outside of dedicated port trucking companies, most trucking companies won’t touch shipping containers. There is a reason for that.

    Think of going to the port as going to WalMart on Black Friday, but imagine only ONE cashier for thousands of customers. Think about the lines. Except at a port, there are at least THREE lines to get a container in or out. The first line is the ‘in’ gate, where hundreds of trucks daily have to pass through 5–10 available gates. The second line is waiting to pick up your container. The third line is for waiting to get out.

    For each of these lines the wait time is a minimum of an hour, and I’ve waited up to 8 hours in the first line just to get into the port. Some ports are worse than others, but excessive wait times are not uncommon. It’s a rare day when a driver gets in and out in under two hours. By ‘rare day’, I mean maybe a handful of times a year. Ports don’t even begin to have enough workers to keep the ports fluid, and it doesn’t matter where you are, coastal or inland port, union or non-union port, it’s the same everywhere.

    Furthermore, I’m fortunate enough to be a Teamster — a union driver — an employee paid by the hour. Most port drivers are ‘independent contractors’, leased onto a carrier who is paying them by the load. Whether their load takes two hours, fourteen hours, or three days to complete, they get paid the same, and they have to pay 90% of their truck operating expenses (the carrier might pay the other 10%, but usually less.)

    The rates paid to non-union drivers for shipping container transport are usually extremely low. In a majority of cases, these drivers don’t come close to my union wages. They pay for all their own repairs and fuel, and all truck related expenses. I honestly don’t understand how many of them can even afford to show up for work. There’s no guarantee of ANY wage (not even minimum wage), and in many cases, these drivers make far below minimum wage. In some cases they work 70 hour weeks and still end up owing money to their carrier.

    So when the coastal ports started getting clogged up last spring due to the impacts of COVID on business everywhere, drivers started refusing to show up. Congestion got so bad that instead of being able to do three loads a day, they could only do one. They took a 2/3 pay cut and most of these drivers were working 12 hours a day or more. While carriers were charging increased pandemic shipping rates, none of those rate increases went to the driver wages. Many drivers simply quit. However, while the pickup rate for containers severely decreased, they were still being offloaded from the boats. And it’s only gotten worse.

    Earlier this summer, both BNSF and Union Pacific Railways shut down their container yards in the Chicago area for a week for inbound containers. These are some of the busiest ports in the country. They had miles upon miles of stack (container) trains waiting to get in to be unloaded. According to BNSF, containers were sitting in the port 1/3 longer than usual, and they simply ran out of space to put them until some of the ones already on the ground had been picked up.

    Though they did reopen the area ports, they are still over capacity. Stack trains are still sitting loaded, all over the country, waiting to get into a port to unload. And they have to be unloaded, there is a finite number of railcars. Equipment shortages are a large part of this problem.

    One of these critical shortages is the container chassis.

    A container chassis is the trailer the container sits on. Cranes will load these in port. Chassis are typically container company provided, as trucking companies generally don’t have their own chassis units. They are essential for container trucking. While there are some privately owned chassis, there aren’t enough of those to begin to address the backlog of containers today, and now drivers are sitting around for hours, sometimes days, waiting for chassis.

    The impact of the container crisis now hitting residencies in proximity to trucking companies. Containers are being pulled out of the port and dropped anywhere the drivers can find because the trucking company lots are full. Ports are desperate to get containers out so they can unload the new containers coming in by boat. When this happens there is no plan to deliver this freight yet, they are literally just making room for the next ship at the port.

    This won’t last long, as this just compounds the shortage of chassis. Ports will eventually find themselves unable to move containers out of the port until sitting containers are delivered, emptied, returned, or taken to a storage lot (either loaded or empty) and taken off the chassis there so the chassis can be put back into use. The priority is not delivery, the priority is just to clear the port enough to unload the next boat.

    What happens when a container does get to a warehouse?

    A large portion of international containers must be hand unloaded because the products are not on pallets. It takes a working crew a considerable amount of time to do this, and warehouse work is usually low wage. A lot of it is actually only temp staffed. Many full time warehouse workers got laid off when the pandemic started, and didn’t come back. So warehouses, like everybody else, are chronically short staffed.

    When the port trucker gets to the warehouse, they have to wait for a door (you’ve probably seen warehouse buildings with a bank of roll-up doors for trucks on one side of the building.) The warehouses are behind schedule, sometimes by weeks. After maybe a 2 hour wait, the driver gets a door and drops the container — but now often has to pick up an empty, and goes back to the port to wait in line all over again to drop off the empty.

    At the warehouse, the delivered freight is unloaded, and it is usually separated and bound to pallets, then shipped out in much smaller quantities to final destination. A container that had a couple dozen pallets of goods on it will go out on multiple trailers to multiple different destinations a few pallets at a time.

    From personal experience, what used to take me 20–30 minutes to pick up at a warehouse can now take three to four hours. This slowdown is warehouse management related: very few warehouses are open 24 hours, and even if they are, many are so short staffed it doesn’t make much difference, they are so far behind schedule. It means that as a freight driver, I cannot pick up as much freight in a day as I used to, and since I can’t get as much freight on my truck, the whole supply chain is backed up. Freight simply isn’t moving.

    It’s important to understand what the cost implications are for consumers with this lack of supply in the supply chain. It’s pure supply and demand economics. Consider volume shipping customers who primarily use ‘general freight’, which is the lowest cost shipping and typically travels in a ‘space available’ fashion. They have usually been able to get their freight moved from origination to delivery within two weeks.

    Think about how you get your packages from Amazon. Even without paying for Prime, you usually get your stuff in a week. The majority of freight travels at this low cost, ‘no guarantee of delivery date’ way, and for the most part it’s been fine for both shippers and consumers. Those days are coming to an end.

    People who want their deliveries in a reasonable time are going to have to start paying premium rates. There will be levels of priority, and each increase in rate premium essentially jumps that freight ahead of all the freight with lower or no premium rates. Unless the lack of shipping infrastructure is resolved, things will back up in a cascading effect to the point where if your products are going general freight, you might wait a month or two for delivery. It’s already starting. If you use truck shipping in any way, you’ve no doubt started to see the delays. Think about what’s going to happen to holiday season shipping.

    What is going to compel the shippers and carriers to invest in the needed infrastructure? The owners of these companies can theoretically not change anything and their business will still be at full capacity because of the backlog of containers. The backlog of containers doesn’t hurt them. It hurts anyone paying shipping costs — that is, manufacturers selling products and consumers buying products.

    But it doesn’t hurt the owners of the transportation business — in fact the laws of supply and demand mean that they are actually going to make more money through higher rates, without changing a thing. They don’t have to improve or add infrastructure (because it’s costly), and they don’t have to pay their workers more (warehouse workers, crane operators, truckers).

    The ‘experts’ want to say we can do things like open the ports 24/7, and this problem will be over in a couple weeks. They are blowing smoke, and they know it. Getting a container out of the port, as slow and aggravating as it is, is really the easy part, if you can find a truck and chassis to haul it. But every truck driver in America can’t operate 24/7, even if the government suspends Hours Of Service Regulations (federal regulations determining how many hours a week we can work/drive), we still need to sleep sometime.

    There are also restrictions on which trucks can go into a port. They have to be approved, have RFID tags, port registered, and the drivers have to have at least a TWIC card (Transportation Worker Identification Credential from the federal Transportation Security Administration). Some ports have additional requirements. As I have already said, most trucking companies won’t touch shipping containers with a 100 foot pole.

    What we have is a system with a limited amount of trucks and qualified drivers, many of whom are already working 14 hours a day (legally, the maximum they can), and now the supposed fix is to have them work 24 hours a day, every day, and not stop until the backlog is cleared. It’s not going to happen. It is not physically possible. There is no “cavalry” coming.

    No trucking companies are going to pay to register their trucks to haul containers for something that is supposedly so “short term,” because these same companies can get higher rate loads outside the ports. There is no extra capacity to be had, and it makes NO difference anyway, because If you can’t get a container unloaded at a warehouse, having drivers work 24/7/365 solves nothing.

    What it will truly take to fix this problem is to run EVERYTHING 24/7: ports (both coastal and domestic),trucks, and warehouses. We need tens of thousands more chassis, and a much greater capacity in trucking.

    Before the pandemic, through the pandemic, and really for the whole history of the freight industry at all levels, owners make their money by having low labor costs — that is, low wages and bare minimum staffing. Many supply chain workers are paid minimum wages, no benefits, and there’s a high rate of turnover because the physical conditions can be brutal (there aren’t even bathrooms for truckers waiting hours at ports because the port owners won’t pay for them.

    The truckers aren’t port employees and port owners are only legally required to pay for bathroom facilities for their employees. This is a nationwide problem). For the whole supply chain to function efficiently every point has to be working at an equal capacity. Any point that fails bottlenecks the whole system. Right now, it’s ALL failing spectacularly TOGETHER, but fixing one piece won’t do anything. It ALL needs to be fixed, and at the same time.

    How do you convince truckers to work when their pay isn’t guaranteed, even to the point where they lose money?

    Nobody is compelling the transportation industries to make the needed changes to their infrastructure. There are no laws compelling them to hire the needed workers, or pay them a living wage, or improve working conditions. And nobody is compelling them to buy more container chassis units, more cranes, or more storage space. This is for an industry that literally every business in the world is reliant on in some way or another.

    My prediction is that nothing is going to change and the shipping crisis is only going to get worse. Nobody in the supply chain wants to pay to solve the problem. They literally just won’t pay to solve the problem. At the point we are at now, things are so backed up that the backups THEMSELVES are causing container companies, ports, warehouses, and trucking companies to charge massive rate increases for doing literally NOTHING.

    Container companies have already decreased the maximum allowable times before containers have to be back to the port, and if the congestion is so bad that you can’t get the container back into the port when it is due, the container company can charge massive late fees. The ports themselves will start charging massive storage fees for not getting containers out on time — storage charges alone can run into thousands of dollars a day.

    Warehouses can charge massive premiums for their services, and so can trucking companies. Chronic understaffing has led to this problem, but it is allowing these same companies to charge ten times more for regular services. Since they’re not paying the workers any more than they did last year or five years ago, the whole industry sits back and cashes in on the mess it created. In fact, the more things are backed up, the more every point of the supply chain cashes in. There is literally NO incentive to change, even if it means consumers have to do holiday shopping in July and pay triple for shipping.

    This is the new normal. All brought to you by the ‘experts’ running our supply chains.

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    There is so much information about the upcoming food shortage and evacuation plans. Some people say that governments are going to evacuate people to Covid camps and vaccinate them there or just do the same as Hitler did during the World War II(killing people with gas and burning them in crematories). Does anyone know, are the governments going to accomplish such plans? And if it is true, when it can happen: this year, maybe next?

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    Quote Posted by Inna (here)
    There is so much information about the upcoming food shortage and evacuation plans. Some people say that governments are going to evacuate people to Covid camps and vaccinate them there or just do the same as Hitler did during the World War II(killing people with gas and burning them in crematories). Does anyone know, are the governments going to accomplish such plans? And if it is true, when it can happen: this year, maybe next?
    If I had to guess, I think that most areas will be left to themselves - certain areas will be important, but who knows really?

    The jab will do (has already begun) it's job. I think the camps are extra areas in reserve to put people as the jails will fill quickly if people riot and continue on a line of chaos.

    I think that this is time for internal reflection, build yourself up spiritually in whatever way works for you. (If you have no ideas, just turn to nature.) Stay healthy, keep in best physical shape as you can. Take your vitamins.

    Take care of your surroundings, your neighbours, your family and prepare for winter. The more prepared you are at home, the less you will have to travel far from it.

    When you get stressed - calm your mind by breathing. Take care of what you watch online and on TV. Watch and read things that make you happy and other things that will help you accomplish small goals. There will be a lot of negative media - we don't have to see or watch it all to know what is happening.

    There is a lot of really great information here - and some pretty good people too!

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    Farmers Panic, Can't Get Supplies to Grow Food

    Around the world, farmers are panicking as they are unable to get the supplies they need to produce food, from fertilizers to herbicides to tractor parts. India has setup a "War Room" for fertilizers after China stopped exports of DAP, prompting farmers to riot to obtain the product they need. Many nations are now limiting exports of food and these inputs, so that they may feed their own people. This was all foreseen by the Food Chain Reaction Game, which--like Event 201--announced this engineered crisis, and pre-scripted the solution. This is broken down in segments in this important Ice Age Farmer broadcast.

    Last edited by Bill Ryan; 7th November 2021 at 13:04. Reason: embedded the video

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    An interesting irony:

    https://reuters.com/business/healthc...ges-2021-11-09

    WHO warns of shortage of 1-2 billion covid vaccine syringes

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    There are no words.


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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything


    Global energy crisis & Lunar eclipse( =today 19 november)
    Astrological forecast for the eclipse season and aftereffects next half year. Ashish Mehta

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    You Can KEEP Your SH*TTY JOB!!" Millions More QUIT Work . Russell Brand 23-11-'21

    A sign left by Chipotle employees who walked out on their jobs has gone viral. As the Great Resignation continues, what does this mean regarding the power of workers when they come together? 13 min

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    This seems alarming to me.
    Question for the medical trained folks here, but isn't this part of the very standard life-saving IV treatment that many patients are immediately given to stabilize their electrolytes?

    Next Up in Drug Shortages: Potassium Chloride
    — Healthcare providers facing a nationwide shortage of the intravenous formulation


    While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to muddle supply chains and raise demands for routine medical items, the latest nationwide drug shortage facing healthcare providers involves the intravenous formulation of potassium chloride.

    Joel Topf, MD, a nephrologist in Detroit, tweeted about the shortage on December 15. He posted the contents of a memo from his institution that read in part, "We have been notified by pharmacy that there is a nationwide shortage of intravenous potassium chloride. It is unclear when we will get additional supplies. With the exception of ICU and a few procedural areas most of the remaining supply has been pulled ... Please use oral forms of [potassium chloride] whenever possible."

    A TEMPORARILY OUT OF STOCK stamp on a photo of a vial of concentrated potassium chloride for injection.
    While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to muddle supply chains and raise demands for routine medical items, the latest nationwide drug shortage facing healthcare providers involves the intravenous formulation of potassium chloride.

    Joel Topf, MD, a nephrologist in Detroit, tweeted about the shortage on December 15. He posted the contents of a memo from his institution that read in part, "We have been notified by pharmacy that there is a nationwide shortage of intravenous potassium chloride. It is unclear when we will get additional supplies. With the exception of ICU and a few procedural areas most of the remaining supply has been pulled ... Please use oral forms of [potassium chloride] whenever possible."


    The shortage is affecting pediatric patients' nutrition and replenishment of electrolytes, especially neonates, said Jason Tomichek, PharmD, of the Department of Pharmaceutical Services at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.

    "It is mainly isolated to the concentrated form," he told MedPage Today."We've been dealing with it for the last 3 months."

    It started "popping up on our radar" in September, but there was product in the marketplace through the beginning of November. Then it suddenly dried up, he added.

    That is typical of a shortage -- there are "rumblings" of it coming and then it hits the market, Tomichek said. "We're hoping this is relatively short-term."

    <snip>
    "Potassium chloride is an important medication to have in any functional hospital," Sparks told MedPage Today. "Many different types of patients have low potassium. A lot of them are in intensive care units. And so it does scare me to think about a hospital that would not have access to intravenous potassium chloride."

    Sparks likened potassium chloride in medicine to the bricks, boards, and nails needed to build a house. "It just cuts across many different types of patients," he said."

    More at link:
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/special...clusives/96271
    "We're all bozos on this bus"

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    I had posted this in the wrong thread previously, but it belongs here



    I don't believe anything, but I have many suspicions. - Robert Anton Wilson

    The present as you think of it, and in practical working terms, is that point at which you select your physical experience from all those events that could be materialized. - Seth (The Nature of Personal Reality - Session 656, Page 293)

    (avatar image: Brocken spectre, a wonderful phenomenon of nature I have experienced and a symbol for my aspirations.)

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great...hain-collapse/

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...chain-collapse

    Quote The Great Supply Chain Collapse

    What’s at the root of the supply chain breakdown? That’s a critical question but the answer is almost irrelevant. The supply chain is a complex dynamic system of immense scale. It is of a complexity comparable to the climate as a system.

    This means that exact cause and effect cannot be computed because the processing power needed exceeds the combined processing power of every computer in the world.

    Most people have some notion of how supply chains work, but few understand how extensive, complex and vulnerable they are. If you go to the store to buy a loaf of bread, you know that the bread did not mystically appear on the shelf.

    It was delivered by a local bakery, put on the shelf by a clerk, you carried it home and served it with dinner. That’s a succinct description of a supply chain – from baker to store to home.

    Yet that description barely scratches the surface. What about the truck driver who delivered the bread from the bakery to the store? Where did the bakery get the flour, yeast and water needed to make the bread? What about the ovens used to bake the bread? When the bread was baked, it was put in clear or paper wrappers of some sort. Where did those come from?

    Even that expanded description of a supply chain is just getting started in terms of a complete chain. The flour used for baking came from wheat. That wheat was grown on a farm and harvested with heavy equipment. The farmer hires labor, uses water and fertilizer and sends his wheat out for processing and packaging before it gets to the bakery.

    The manufacturer who built the oven has his own supply chain of steel, tempered glass, semiconductors, electrical circuits and other inputs needed to build the ovens. The ovens are either hand crafted (engineered-to-order) or mass produced (made-to-stock) in a factory that may use either assembly lines or manufacturing cells to get the job done.

    The factory requires inputs of electricity, natural gas, heating and ventilation systems, and skilled labor to turn out the ovens.

    The store that sells the bread is on the receiving end of numerous supply chains. It also requires electricity, natural gas, heating and ventilation systems and skilled labor to keep the doors open and keep merchandise in stock. The store has loading docks, back rooms for inventory, forklifts and conveyor belts to move its merchandise from truck to shelf.

    Every link in these supply chains requires transportation. The farmer relies on trucks or rail for deliveries of seeds, fertilizers, equipment and other inputs. The oven manufacturer also relies on trucks or rail for deliveries of its inputs, including oven components. The bakery and the store rely mainly on trucks for deliveries of their inputs and the finished loaves of bread. The consumer relies on her automobile to get to the store and return home.

    These transportation modes have their own supply chains involving truck drivers, train engineers, good roads, good railroads, rail spurs and energy supplies to keep moving and keep deliveries on time.

    This entire network (farms, factories, bakeries, stores, trucks, railroads and consumers) relies on energy supplies to keep working. The energy can come from nuclear reactors, coal-fired or natural gas-fired power plants or renewable sources fed to a grid of high-tension wires, substations, transformers and local connections to reach the individual user.

    Everything described above sits somewhere in a complex supply chain needed to produce one loaf of bread. Now take everything else in the grocery store (fruits, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish, canned goods, coffee, condiments and so on) and imagine the supply chains needed for each one of those products.

    Then take all the other stores in the shopping center (home goods, clothing, pharmacy, hardware, restaurants, sporting goods) and imagine all the goods and services available from those vendors and the supply chains behind each and every one of those.

    In case you think I have exaggerated the components and steps in making a loaf of bread in the above example, I didn’t. The example above is a grossly simplified description of the actual supply chain.

    A full description of the needed supply chain would reach back further (where do the seeds for the wheat come from?) and branch off in tangential directions (where do the bread wrappers originate?).

    A full description of the loaf of bread supply chain with choice of vendor analysis, quality-control tests and bulk purchase discounts among other decision tree branches could easily stretch to several hundred pages.

    Now consider all of the supply chain links and possible bottlenecks described above are purely domestic. But very few supply chains are actually that local. CEOs, logistics engineers, consultants and politicians have spent the past 30 years making supply chains global.

    You’ve heard discussion of globalization since the early 1990s. What one may not have realized is that the process that was being globalized was the supply chain.

    You know your iPhone comes from China. Did you know that the specialized glass used in the iPhone comes from South Korea? Did you know the semiconductors in the iPhone come from Taiwan? That the intellectual property and design of the iPhone are from California?

    The iPhone includes flash storage from Japan, gyroscopes from Germany, audio amplifiers, battery chargers, display port multiplexers, batteries, cameras and hundreds of other advanced parts.

    In total, Apple works with suppliers in 43 countries on six continents to source the materials and parts that go into an iPhone. That’s a quick overview of the iPhone supply chain. Of course, every supplier in that supply chain has its own supply chain of sources and processes. Again, supply chains are immensely complex.

    Once the global perspective is added, we have to expand our transportation options from trucks and trains to include ships and planes. That means ports and airports are additional links in the chain.

    Those facilities have their own links and inputs including cranes, containers, port authorities, air traffic controllers, pilots, captains and the vessels themselves. And to our list of trucks, trains, ships and planes we can add pipelines that transport liquids such as petroleum, gasoline and natural gas.

    You get the idea. Supply chains may be hidden but they are everywhere. They are interconnected, densely networked and unimaginably complex.

    The touchstone of these efforts was the idea of just-in-time inventory (JIT). If you’re installing seats on an automobile assembly line, it is ideal if those seats arrive at the plant the same morning as the installation. That minimizes storage and inventory costs. The same is true for every part installed on the assembly line. The logistics behind this are daunting but can be managed with state-of-the-art software.

    All these efforts are fine as far as they go. The cost savings are real. The supply chains are efficient. The capacity of this system to keep a lid on costs is demonstrable.

    The supply chain revolution since the early 1990s has been about cost reduction, which gets passed to consumers in the form of lower prices. That practically explains the entire phenomenon.

    There’s only one problem. The system is extremely fragile. When things break down, everything gets worse at the same time. One missed delivery can result in an entire assembly line shutting down. One delayed vessel can result in empty shelves. One power outage can result in a transportation breakdown.

    In a nutshell, that’s what has happened to the global supply chain. There’s a lack of redundancy.
    The system is not robust to shocks. The shocks have occurred nevertheless (pandemic, trade wars, China-U.S. decoupling, bank collateral shortages and more) and the system has broken down.

    The failures have cascaded. Delays in receiving commodity inputs in China have resulted in manufacturing delays for exports. Energy shortages in China have resulted in further disruption of steel production, mining, transportation and other basic industries.

    Port delays in Los Angeles have resulted in component and finished goods delayed in the U.S. Semiconductor shortages have halted production of electronics, appliances, automobiles and other consumer durables that rely on automated applications. You’ve seen how complex the system is.

    The bottom line is if supply chains are breaking down, the economy is breaking down. If the economy breaks down, the breakdown of social order is not far behind.

    And the costs of social disorder are far higher than any possible savings from supposedly efficient supply chains.


    Regards,

    Jim Rickards
    for The Daily Reckoning


    I don't believe anything, but I have many suspicions. - Robert Anton Wilson

    The present as you think of it, and in practical working terms, is that point at which you select your physical experience from all those events that could be materialized. - Seth (The Nature of Personal Reality - Session 656, Page 293)

    (avatar image: Brocken spectre, a wonderful phenomenon of nature I have experienced and a symbol for my aspirations.)

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    UK Avalon Founder Bill Ryan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    From Zero Hedge today:
    Europe On Edge Of Energy Disaster As Power Prices Smash All Records

    Europe's energy crisis got even worse on Tuesday as a shortage of natural gas, nuclear outages, declining wind power output, and cold weather boosted prices.

    The gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark gas price for Europe, soared 10% to a new record high of 165 euros per megawatt-hour after gas entering Germany at the Mallnow compressor station plunged to zero. Flows were diverted eastward to Poland.

    European gas prices hit a record high.



    For some context, European NatGas is trading at an oil-barrel-equivalent price of $340 (why aren't more producers shifting?)



    Compared to US NatGas, which has traded in an arbitrageable range for15 years, things are out of control...



    And all of this as gas flows into Europe plummet.



    Russia's Gazprom PJSC has steadily reduced gas flows to Europe as the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline had its certification delayed until possibly July. No new flows into Europe are forcing utilities to drain their gas storages (already at seasonal lows). Some utilities have had to restart fossil fuel generators to avoid grid disruption.



    The energy crisis worsened in the last several days as France; usually, an exporter of power, has been desperately seeking imports and even restarted fuel-burning generators as the country's top power utility, Electricite de France SA, halted four nuclear reactors accounting for 10% of the country's nuclear capacity, straining power grids as the continent copes with cold weather.



    "It's illustrating how severe it is when they're actually starting to burn fuel oil and importing from all these countries," said Fabian Ronningen, an analyst at Rystad Energy. "All the unexpected maintenance is also causing the extremely high cost of supply, which is reflected in the market prices."


    30% of France's nuclear capacity will be offline in the coming weeks. Germany will lose about half its nuclear capacity next year. As the Northern Hemisphere winter begins, the continent will be at the mercy of Mother Nature.

    Another issue developing this week is that Germany's power output from thousands of wind turbines has plunged to five-week lows as cold weather strains the grid.



    As a result of the grid strain, German power prices climbed 30% to a record 431.98 euros per megawatt-hour.



    It looks like the European energy crisis is rapidly accelerating and could get even worse as cold weather is expected to persist for the coming weeks.

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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything


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    Default Re: Global Shortages of Everything

    An opinion article in Newsweek, published a week ago. The author, Gordon Chang, has written a book called The Coming Collapse of China.
    Thanks to China, Supply Chains Will Never Recover

    If you are in the habit of celebrating Halloween in the middle of January, you're in luck this year. American ports, plagued by logistical problems, are now unloading Halloween gear from container ships.

    Supply chains, which once delivered goods to American stores cheaply, quickly and at the right moment, are now, as Jonathan Bass tells Newsweek, "not cheap, not quick and not just-in-time."

    Bass, CEO of Whom Home and a nearshoring advocate, also points out that retailers, anticipating long delays, are ordering goods nine to 12 months ahead of time. Shelves at stores both big and small are sometimes empty, and delivery times are no longer predictable.

    In 2020, the Financial Times tells us, "a highly synchronized system was spun out of rhythm."

    There's no mystery why an extraordinarily efficient global mechanism broke down. Draconian COVID-19 lockdowns in China closed factories, and disease stopped trucks and planes in both producing and consuming countries. At the same time, there was a surge in demand for goods from locked down consumers who could not spend their money on services. A logistical supply chain with little resiliency thus collapsed.

    There are now about 120 ships waiting off the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Off China's ports, the numbers are far higher. In the beginning of November, for instance, there was a total of 493 ships loitering, waiting to load. The backups are significant: Ships carry about 90 percent of the world's cargo.

    So when does the world get back to normal?

    Perhaps never. It is true that these delays are the result of misguided transportation policies in the U.S., especially California, as well as fundamentally flawed policies in China. But countries adjust and, as COVID dissipates, many problems will eventually go away.

    These disruptions, however, will have a profound long-term effect on manufacturing. Companies will be forced to adjust. As Scott Price, president of UPS International, told the Financial Times, there will be a "migration to new supply chain models"—in other words, producers will move factories closer to consumers.

    Yet there are more than just logistical reasons for companies to shorten the long route between factory floor and store shelf. First, as Washington, D.C. trade expert Alan Tonelson points out, China is shortening supply chains by driving factories out.

    "Xi Jinping's neo-Maoist counterrevolution," Tonelson tells Newsweek, "has made the People's Republic of China an increasingly unreliable and unpredictable place to do business."

    As a result, some production has migrated to even lower-cost jurisdictions in Asia, such as Cambodia and Vietnam. But factories have also moved to cheap-labor countries in the Western Hemisphere. In the middle of last year, for instance, American footwear and apparel company Steve Madden announced that, due in part to supply chain problems, it was relocating about half of its women's production from China to Mexico and Brazil.


    A container is offloaded from a ship at the Port of Los Angeles on November 30, 2021 in San Pedro, California.

    Second, as Indian analyst Brahma Chellaney observed in a Project Syndicate piece, "China is turning into a trade tyrant." The country, from especially the end of the first decade of this century, has tried to use its manufacturing and production clout to obtain geopolitical goals.

    Most famously, sometime in the second half of 2010, Chinese customs authorities imposed an embargo on the export of rare-earth metals to Japan in order to force Tokyo to release the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that had encroached on Japanese waters around the Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyus.

    The action, although unofficial, was a clear violation of Beijing's World Trade Organization obligations and was lifted after two months. But it was not lifted before Tokyo released the captain, who was part of a Chinese government-directed effort to use force to pry the islands from Japanese control. China has imposed or threatened other rare-earth metal embargoes from time to time.

    More recently—March 2020—China's official Xinhua News Agency said the regime could throw America into a "mighty sea of coronavirus" by withholding protective gear. That threat was not idle: As Fox Business Network's Maria Bartiromo reported in February 2020, China turned around a ship carrying medical protective gear heading to New York hospitals.

    At the same time, Peter Navarro, President Trump's director of trade and manufacturing policy, said Beijing had imposed export restrictions on N95 masks and nationalized an American factory producing them there. "How is anybody going to trust China, in terms of keeping up their end of the bargain again in business?" Bartiromo asked.

    There is one additional reason factories will move closer to the point of consumption: The world is transitioning from a period of general stability to one of constant instability—and perhaps conflict.

    Bad actors—most notably China and Russia—are becoming bold, and the rest of the world does not look like it is prepared to stop them. How many ships will leave Chinese ports if China, whether intentionally or accidentally, starts a conflict with Taiwan, Japan or the Philippines? In November, the State Department actually had to threaten to use force against China for dangerous activities in the South China Sea, around Second Thomas Shoal.

    Long supply chains, stretching halfway around the world, will no longer be viable when navies clash.

    The most recent round of globalization started when countries lowered political barriers to trade after the Cold War. Reflecting the general euphoria of that time, almost no one thought that form of governance mattered anymore. Democracies believed they could, without national security repercussions, trade with—and thereby strengthen —authoritarian, dictatorial and totalitarian states. Now, China has proven that pollyannaish theory to be disastrously wrong.

    The world looks exceedingly dangerous, and supply chains are already fragile.

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