We Were Warned about Computer Driven Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

[ExomatrixTV]

• We Were Warned about Computer Driven Self-Fulfilling Prophecies:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=SvjmRXtDn-8

Sixty years ago, a panel of some of the time's most lauded scientists were having a discussion one day... and now a lot of what they talked about is no longer science fiction.



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This is quite interesting: The title isn't exactly what it sounds like, though there's some quotes from a book published in 1963 titled "Man and his Future"

These quotes all come from a man named Donald M. Mackay (1922-1987) in a chapter entitled "Machines and Societies".

• Tell Me If Any Of This Even Closely Resembles Our Current Society?

"A "MACHINE", in the classical sense of the term, represents the antithesis of all that is characteristically human. Certain functions in society--its hewing of wood and drawing of water--might be delegated to mechanical devices; but any implied resemblances between these and human agents are trivial.

The past few decades, however, have seen a radical change in our whole conception of machines and their possibilities. With the growth of the science of communication and control, the idea of a machine has been so enlarged that few, if any, specifiable characteristics are in principle outside its scope. It becomes meaningful to ask not only what function machines may perform for society, but also how far societies themselves can be regarded as machines, and whether well-tried remedies for the ills of machines can be applied to corresponding disorders of society. Since the notion of mechanism is never far from that of manipulation, this question in turn raises a crop of others which go to the roots of our traditional conceptions of social responsibility...."

• Models As Predictors

Our discussion of societies as self-regulating mechanisms suggests yet another possible function for machines, as predictive models. The efficiency of government action in complex situations, for example, could be greatly increased if even a crude information-flow model were available on which to try out a change in policy. The more refined the model, presumably, the more smooth the implementation of government policy (though of this more anon).

At election time, a reliable model of voting behaviour would obviously be of supreme value to all who have the power to manipulate determining factors--unless, indeed, the possession of adequate models by all were to cancel out their value to each ...."

• Societies As Cognitive Information-Systems

There can be no question that an accurate information-flow model of a society could be a powerful tool in the hands of anyone, in government or elsewhere, who wanted to predict or manipulate social processes to his ends. If the predictor himself were sufficiently isolated from that society, and could gain the information to keep his model up to date without significantly disturbing it, then his power might in principle seem unlimited...."

• Self-validating Descriptions

The mechanically-minded reader may now be impatient. "Surely" he may ask "it must be possible, with a sufficiently complex predictive model, to trim the prediction in such a way that when published it ensures its own fulfilment?" There are, indeed, circumstances in which it is possible to "adjust" a poll result, for example, so that its publication brings about its own fulfilment. But in the field of human attitudes such circumstances are exceptional.

There is, moreover, an obvious objection to such a procedure at a more fundamental level. Suppose we assume that the adjusted forecast is confirmed by events, so that nobody who believed it feels himself to have been deceived. But suppose it had not been published? Then (ex hypothesi) the result would have been different--perhaps even reversed. Thus publication here was not primarily informative, but manipulative. And although a large computer may not always be essential to this end, the more powerful the predictive apparatus used, the more subtle and wide-ranging will be the manipulation of social attitude possible under the guise of scientific prediction."

cheers,
John Kuhles aka 'ExomatrixTV'
May 2nd, 2022 🦜🦋🌳


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~see also:

• Thread: A.I. is Progressing Faster Than You Think!