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Thread: Geomagnetic activity forecast

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    Great Britain Avalon Member ian33's Avatar
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    Default Geomagnetic activity forecast

    Name:  Screenshot 2022-09-03 at 21-43-55 Space Weather by SolarHam.png
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    ...likely weather disturbance
    aurora watch
    Last edited by ian33; 4th September 2022 at 06:31.

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    United States Moderator Sue (Ayt)'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Geomagnetic activity forecast

    I subscribe to NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center service where they send "alerts, warnings, watches, forecasts, and summaries via email within moments of issue."
    https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/ProductSub...tionService%2f

    They rarely send warning emails, but I just now rec'd this email:

    Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
    Serial Number: 83
    Issue Time: 2022 Sep 27 0218 UTC

    WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
    Valid From: 2022 Sep 27 0217 UTC
    Valid To: 2022 Sep 27 0900 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

    NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
    www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
    Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
    Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
    Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
    Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
    ------
    Click image for larger version

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    (I don't fully understand these things, but K-7 seems rather alarming)
    "We're all bozos on this bus"

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    United States Avalon Member
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    Default Re: Geomagnetic activity forecast

    So the k index is a gauge for how far south the reactions may be of an interplanetary storm, so for example a k7 may see the northern lights in Ohio but a k9 you will see them further south in st Louis. Usually what accompanies the higher k is more disruptive space stuff like sun spots blowing up. Yesterday we had 2 cme,s side swipe the earth that nobody was expecting. Great huh, all this technology and were still running around with blinders on.sunspots blowing up = higher k index s = more intense auroras .

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