Saudi Arabia, Turkey and India focus on a multipolar world order
The new tensions and conflicts among the global superpowers are opening new opportunities for ambitious middle-power countries.
While Europeans fear a division of the world into new blocs, with the U.S. and its allies on one side and China and Russia on the other, others are not at all unhappy with the new, confrontational global dynamic. For a number of self-confident middle powers, the end of undisputed global leadership by the United States offers an opportunity to rebrand and reposition themselves. These are countries that have close ties with the United States, especially in the area of security. At the same time, these countries refuse to be drawn into a confrontation. Instead, they are betting on a continuation of the profitable relationship with Russia and China, regardless of geopolitical tensions.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and India are betting on a future «multipolar» world order that will allow them to diversify their relations – and position themselves as independent power-political «poles.» All three are in a different league than the U.S. and China. But they are large and influential enough to be heard globally and play an important role regionally. Each of these three countries balances among the great powers, each in its own way.
Red carpet for the Chinese president
Saudi Arabia just demonstrated its quest for independence again with its grand reception of the Chinese president. Admittedly, this was not Xi’s first visit to Riyadh. But the images of harmony from the Saudi capital contrasted sharply with the tensions in the Saudi-U.S. relationship that had been the focus of Biden’s visit in July. What is clear is that Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman’s red carpet for Xi also signaled to Washington that he has other options.
Riyadh has also forged close ties in recent years with Russia, which has once again become an important regional player via its intervention in Syria. Just how close the relationship is, the U.S. was forced to realize through gritted teeth in October. Biden’s visit to Riyadh had been aimed at persuading Saudi Arabia to put more oil on the market in order to bring down the price of oil, which had been increased by the Russian sanctions. But Riyadh did not care about the Americans’ concerns. On the contrary, in October Saudi Arabia and Russia together ensured that OPEC-plus actually reduced production volumes to achieve an increase in price through shortages.
However, it would be inaccurate to conclude from all this that Saudi Arabia also wants to orient itself permanently toward China in terms of security policy. Riyadh still needs the United States as a key partner in its regional rivalry with Iran and for the supply of advanced weapons. China has neither the capabilities nor the interest to become massively involved in the region in terms of security policy. De facto, China also remains dependent on U.S. management of the regional order.
A different idea of regional order
This is also true of Turkey, which, for all its tensions with the U.S., continues to view NATO membership as the foundation of its security. For all its struggle for independence and unwillingness to subordinate itself to American strategies, Ankara does not go so far as to seriously question the transatlantic relationship. But within this framework, Turkey is trying to achieve the greatest possible freedom of action in order to make room for its own ideas of regional order and its national interests.
This tension has crystallized in recent years, particularly over the issue of Turkey’s relations with Russia – and the dispute over Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system.
Turkey’s relationship with Russia is complex. There are elements of fierce competition. In Syria and Libya, and to some extent in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, the two countries are on opposite sides; both have claims to regional hegemony. Similar tensions exist with regard to Ukraine – it does not suit Ankara at all if Russia becomes even more powerful and dominant on the northern coast of the Black Sea. Therefore, Turkey supports the Ukrainian side militarily, especially by supplying armed drones and closing the Bosphorus passage for Russian warships.
A loophole for Russia
For all the competition, however, there is also a partnership between Putin and Erdogan. Both avoid allowing tensions and competition to spill over into direct conflict, both are united in their efforts to keep the West largely out of their region, and both are committed to keeping the bilateral relationship constructive, including in the economic sphere. Turkey is not joining the sanctions against Russia because of the Ukraine war and is even buying more Russian oil. There is also currently growing concern in Western capitals that Turkey is being used by Russia as a loophole to circumvent Western sanctions.
Despite all the Western anger at Turkey, the country has at the same time positioned itself as a central player that has a good relationship with all sides – and could thus move into pole position in mediation attempts. When Moscow and Kyiv were still negotiating in March, these talks took place in Istanbul. And the grain deal that opened a corridor for Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea came about under Turkish direction.
The rest is here,
https://www.nzz.ch/english/saudi-ara...ktcval=Twitter
The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)
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