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Thread: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

  1. Link to Post #241
    Germany Avalon Member christian's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    Quote Posted by pounamuknight (here)
    Quote Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
    Quote Posted by christian (here)
    Zeihan predicted that if Russia wants to launch a major military operation to do something about its demographic decline before it runs out of soldiers, Russia has to do it by 2022. He made that prediction in 2014.
    Nonsense.
    His industry of nonsense is creative […] 12 years ago, Zeihan said the empire's biggest threat was gonna collapse within 10 years
    I don't understand this "all or nothing" attitude in regard to Peter Zeihan. Analysts say a lot of things. Sometimes they're on point, sometimes they're far off.

    I specifically mentioned Zeihan's analysis of Russia's demographic decline that led to his 2014 prediction of a Russian war of aggression by 2022.

    In reply, Bill mentioned Zeihan's comment about Kinzhal missiles and you mentioned Zeihan's prediction of China's collapse.

    I'd like to draw some attention to Graham's hierarchy of disagreement where both of your disagreements would be on the second lowest level:


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  3. Link to Post #242
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/velerie_a/status...62765509754881


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  5. Link to Post #243
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/Sinnaig/status/1663235774614061071





    https://twitter.com/Sinnaig/status/1663277434429399045


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  7. Link to Post #244
    UK Avalon Founder Bill Ryan's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    Quote Posted by christian (here)
    Quote Posted by pounamuknight (here)
    Quote Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
    Quote Posted by christian (here)
    Zeihan predicted that if Russia wants to launch a major military operation to do something about its demographic decline before it runs out of soldiers, Russia has to do it by 2022. He made that prediction in 2014.
    Nonsense.
    His industry of nonsense is creative […] 12 years ago, Zeihan said the empire's biggest threat was gonna collapse within 10 years
    I don't understand this "all or nothing" attitude in regard to Peter Zeihan. Analysts say a lot of things. Sometimes they're on point, sometimes they're far off.

    I specifically mentioned Zeihan's analysis of Russia's demographic decline that led to his 2014 prediction of a Russian war of aggression by 2022.

    In reply, Bill mentioned Zeihan's comment about Kinzhal missiles and you mentioned Zeihan's prediction of China's collapse.

    I'd like to draw some attention to Graham's hierarchy of disagreement where both of your disagreements would be on the second lowest level:


    Christian, if I think something's nonsense, I'll say so. Period.


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  9. Link to Post #245
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    JP Morgan will hold its “Global China Summit” in #Shanghai tomorrow. Along with Jamie Dimon, there will be many prominent US elites like CEOs of Starbucks and Pfizer, Henry Kissinger, and Condoleeza Rice.

    JPMorgan just gained full ownership of its China mutual fund joint venture this year, after adding ownerships of a local futures unit in 2020 and a securities unit in 2021.

    China’s financial sector is staggering $60 trillion in size. None of these bankers and capitalists are going to decouple from China.

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...08401132408832


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  11. Link to Post #246
    UK Avalon Founder Bill Ryan's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    This is closely connected with the new multipolar world, BRICS+, and more. It's also of considerable interest to myself in Ecuador, which is still on the USD, and there seems to be no public discussion at all about what happens to Ecuador if the USD crashes. (A friend of mine knows one of the very senior bankers here, and asked him that very question. The answer was that he didn't know, and he seemed to be entirely truthful.)

    https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32023
    |

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  13. Link to Post #247
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/s...10355078430721


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  15. Link to Post #248
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/s...05284131315712



    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/br...ummit/2910628#

    Brazil’s Lula pushes for regional currency at South America summit

    MEXICO CITY

    Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for the creation of a regional trade currency while hosting a summit of South American leaders on Tuesday.

    Lula discussed the importance of a common currency for the region and called for the revival of the regional bloc previously known as the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) at the gathering, which was attended by 11 other leaders and representatives of South American countries.

    He was accompanied at the Itamaraty Palace in the capital Brasilia by the leaders of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Surinam, Uruguay and Venezuela.

    Peruvian President Dina Boluarte did not attend the summit for diplomatic reasons and was instead represented by the leader of the Council of Ministers of Peru.

    The leaders attended the summit at the invitation of Lula, who is seeking a more integrated bloc to address common problems within the region such as healthcare, the environment, trade and organized crime.

    Among the proposals he made is the possible issuance of a common currency for the South American region, which would facilitate trade and counteract trade dependency on the US dollar.

    Earlier this year, Lula and Argentine President Alberto Fernandez announced their intention to create a common currency between their countries called “the sur,” or “south,” and planned to invite other Latin American nations to join what would have been the world’s second largest currency union, but the plans were put on ice due to complications.

    The currency was to have been one of the various measures planned to solidify ties between the South American countries. ​​​​​​​

    Lula meanwhile said that UNASUR represents a good start to further international cooperation and integration.

    UNASUR was a mechanism for consultation, coordination, integration and political dialogue created in 2008 by the leaders of the Pink Tide, a group of left-leaning non-communist governments that rose to power at the end of the 1990s and in the new millennium in Latin America headed by leaders including Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Argentina, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil and Evo Morales in Bolivia.

    According to Lula, the ideology fostered a rupture in regional cohesion, and by 2018, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay desisted from participating in UNASUR.

    With Lula's return to the presidency, however, Brazil formally returned to UNASUR in April.

    "For more than 10 years, UNASUR has allowed us to get to know each other better. We consolidated our ties through a broad political dialogue that accommodated differences and allowed us to identify common denominators. We implemented cooperation initiatives in health, infrastructure and defense. This integration also contributed to important trade gains. We formed a robust free trade zone, whose figures reached a record value of $124 billion in 2011," said Lula.

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  17. Link to Post #249
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    EU to break ranks with US on Russia and China trade – Bloomberg 30 May, 2023

    The bloc is reportedly unwilling to pursue the hawkish stance on trade with Beijing and Moscow being promoted by Washington



    The European Union does not intend to condemn Russia and China for "economic coercion" in its joint trade strategy with the US, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday citing a draft document.

    According to the outlet, the US has been advocating a more confrontational stance on China, while members of the EU have been reluctant to adopt a hawkish approach despite embracing the concept of "de-risking" regarding outbound investment, which is endorsed by both Washington and Brussels.

    The EU reportedly seeks to reduce its economic exposure to the Asian powerhouse by signing on to the US-led policy of curbing Beijing's access to advanced technologies. At the same time, the bloc is struggling to maintain a balance in relations with Washington and China, which remains an important trading partner for the EU.

    France and Italy objected to references to China as a non-market economy during internal meetings, Bloomberg reported citing sources familiar with the document.

    While previous strategy drafts called out China's "anti-competitive and harmful non-market policies and practices," in particular in the semiconductor sector, the latest version does not include that language.

    The US also proposed accusing China and Russia of "economic coercion" in earlier drafts of the document. The final text of the trade strategy mentions the problem but avoids calling out the two countries by name, Bloomberg said.

    US and EU representatives have reportedly agreed on a simplified draft avoiding harsh rhetoric while still enumerating the core issues. The document is expected to be published after the conclusion of the trade meeting between the two sides, which is taking place in Sweden on Tuesday and Wednesday.


    https://www.rt.com/business/577151-e...-russia-china/

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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    Time to ditch the dollar – Cuban president 31 May, 2023

    With US dominance broken, the BRICS nations can build a fairer world, Miguel Diaz-Canel told RT

    Giving up the US dollar will free developing countries from Washington’s “sanctions, blackmail, aggression, and slander,” Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel told RT in an exclusive interview due to air on Thursday.

    The dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency enables the US to pursue an “aggressive hegemonistic policy of building walls, imposing punitive sanctions, blackmail, aggression and slander,” Diaz-Canel said. Against this policy – which has seen Cuba embargoed for six decades by the US – Diaz-Canel added that “BRICS provides a brilliant alternative for economic integration, especially for developing economies.”

    Since it was first coined in 2001, BRICS has grown from an acronym for five emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – into an informal alliance that has overtaken the US-led G7 bloc in its share of global GDP, has its own development bank, and counts Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Argentina among 19 prospective members.

    Amid calls for a common BRICS currency to settle trade bills, members of the group have begun to conduct more bilateral trade in their own currencies, eschewing the US dollar.

    “I believe that we need to recognize the leading role of Russia in shaping this multipolar world,” Diaz-Canel said, stating that continued “de-dollarization” will lead to “more inclusive and more mutually beneficial trade” for those who reject the US’ “lies and empty promises.”

    Although Cuba is not a member of the BRICS group, the island nation has been a close partner of Russia since the days of the Soviet Union, and trade between Moscow and Havana tripled last year to $452 million. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko visited Cuba last week, where he announced that Russian firms were planning more investment in the country’s tourism sector.

    “It is at times like this that we get friends from other countries supporting us with real actions and under conditions that are not harmful to our independence,” Diaz-Canel told RT.


    video: https://www.rt.com/news/577195-cuba-...terview-brics/

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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/RealPepeEscobar/...83699544371203


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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    Text:

    Saudi Arabia forging ahead with BRICS membership?

    It's not finalized, but Saudi foreign minister is in South Africa for the BRICS meeting for foreign ministers. Here is Faisal bin Farhan schmoozing with Russian FM Lavrov.

    A multipolar world won't be created in one day. Every such meeting is laying the "brick" for the foundation.

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...49436862836739



    https://twitter.com/DagnyTaggart963/...79769226293250



    https://twitter.com/DagnyTaggart963/...37469892861967



    https://twitter.com/DagnyTaggart963/...37300178829312


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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/DrSJaishankar/st...84402871062534


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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/Sputnik_India/st...09532909076481


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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...51998802423809




    Peter Zeihan: The Jim Cramer of Geopolitics

    Peter Zeihan is so wrong about everything that this is my longest podcast — 40 minutes long! He’s wrong about deglobalization, the coming collapse of China, reshoring or friend-shoring of manufacturing, and the future of US dollar. He is also definitely rewriting of the American Empire’s past. Thus, here's a podcast debunking all his claims and misinformation.


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  31. Link to Post #256
    Germany Avalon Member christian's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    Quote Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
    Quote Posted by christian (here)
    I'd like to draw some attention to Graham's hierarchy of disagreement […]:

    Christian, if I think something's nonsense, I'll say so. Period.
    There's nothing wrong with disagreeing, I never objected to that. I just meant to say there are different ways of disagreeing, and some are more convincing than others. A simple contradiction is right in the middle of the hierarchy of disagreement.

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    UK Avalon Founder Bill Ryan's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    Quote Posted by christian (here)
    Quote Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

    Christian, if I think something's nonsense, I'll say so. Period.
    There's nothing wrong with disagreeing, I never objected to that. I just meant to say there are different ways of disagreeing, and some are more convincing than others. A simple contradiction is right in the middle of the hierarchy of disagreement.
    This is the problem:
    It's a little politically incorrect to say this right now, but I'm quite quickly coming to the view that 'free speech' discussion rarely achieves anything at all and just takes up a lot of time and energy, in almost all cases to no purpose.

    My view — which may or may not be correct, you decide — is that you've already made up your mind about a whole bunch of things, and some of your comments like this (citing a website called La Russophobe!)
    Quote Posted by christian (here)
    Putin has proven himself to be a murderous tyrant
    ...suggest to me that there's no value in discussion. It'll make no difference.

    My opinion is that you have a whole bunch of things totally wrong (which surprised me, I have to say, but that fact seems clear to me), and what we're seeing here is just a symptom of the immense divide that separates people now. I feel now more than ever before that that divide is almost impossible to bridge.

    I've spent about 10 mins on this post, which I'll never get back. In future I'll just continue saying "Nonsense". It's a lot quicker!

    I no longer have patience for anything else. Either people understand what's happening in the world right now, or they don't.

    Last edited by Bill Ryan; 2nd June 2023 at 07:47.

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  35. Link to Post #258
    Germany Avalon Member christian's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    Quote Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
    It's a little politically incorrect to say this right now, but I'm quite quickly coming to the view that 'free speech' discussion rarely achieves anything at all and just takes up a lot of time and energy, in almost all cases to no purpose.

    My view — which may or may not be correct, you decide — is that you've already made up your mind about a whole bunch of things, and some of your comments like this (citing a website called La Russophobe!)

    Quote Posted by christian (here)
    Putin has proven himself to be a murderous tyrant
    ...suggest to me that there's no value in discussion. It'll make no difference.
    What I found compelling was not the name of the blog, but the content of the blog post. It contains a long list of stories about Russian human rights activists, journalists, and politicians who opposed Putin's government and were either killed or imprisoned. That's why I called Putin a murderous tyrant. I'm happy to change my mind when someone points me to information that convinces me that the Putin administration had nothing to do with these murders. Nobody here on the forum has done that, instead everyone keeps telling me that the blog's name is polemic, which I would certainly agree with.

    Likewise, when I share Peter Zeihan's analysis of Russia's demographic decline and his 2014 prediction that a major Russian war for conquest only makes sense if it starts by 2022, I'm not gonna be convinced of the opposite when you merely say that it's nonsense and point to some video of Zeihan where you disagree with Zeihan's analysis of a completely different issue.

    I agree that social media rarely changes anyone's mind. In my opinion, this has three main reasons. One, people are unwilling to change their minds. Two, people are not good at convincing others. Three, people are less empathic online than they are in person. I genuinely strive to get better in all of these areas, and I hope that especially on a forum like Avalon, people have not given up on this either.

    In fact, during the course of this back-and-forth, I thought about a "how to disagree" thread about how to minimize the chance to offend, how to maximize the chance to convince, and how to master the ability to remain convincible by new information, even if it goes against strongly held beliefs. I think Graham's hierarchy of disagreement and non-violent communication are some good tools in that regard. Of course, even the best communicator cannot convince someone who doesn't want to be convinced, but I think it's worthwhile to strive to be as efficient as possible, so that one day the conversational atmosphere among humans will be more diplomatic and mature.

    By the way, I credit you (and Kerry and George Green) for changing my mind about everything related to ETs, UFOs, and the secret space program. Until my early 20s, I had felt that people who are into this are just wasting time, but your courteous, informative, and empathetic interviews (along with some synchronistic experiences I had shortly after) made me reconsider and open up to new perspectives.

    Thank you for this exchange, and sorry for taking up so much of your time. I hope that taking up all of this forum space is not in vain and will help to bridge the immense divide (not just over the Ukrainian war) that I also see. I don't doubt for a second that the Ukrainian government and its Western backers are criminals. I just think the Putin administration is criminal in its own right, because I have heard so much about the crimes of the Russian army from real people in Ukraine, I see that the situation in Ukraine is much worse now than it was before the Russian invasion, and I see that members of the Russian opposition to Putin—whether in media or in politics—often suffer tragic fates. It would take a lot for me to see all of this in a different way, but I hope I remain convincible one way or another.

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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    https://twitter.com/CheburekiMan/sta...91871807340546


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    Default Re: The Multipolar World Order (yes, it's coming)

    Asia has alternative to SWIFT – media 1 Jun, 2023

    The global shift away from the Western-based payment network, now used as a sanctions tool, has been gathering pace

    The Asian Clearing Union (ACU) – a nine-member group of central banks including those of India, Pakistan and Iran – has decided to launch a new cross-border financial messaging system in June, as an alternative to SWIFT, according to the Iranian newspaper Kayhan.

    The daily cited Central Bank of Iran deputy governor Mohsen Karimi as saying the new payment system is capable of completely replacing SWIFT and could facilitate the global de-dollarization push.

    The regulator reportedly stated last week that the new financial system will be used only by ACU member-states, but that others, including sanctioned countries like Syria, could apply for membership. Belarus and Mauritius have already reportedly reached out to the union.

    Speaking at the ACU meeting in Tehran last week, Central Bank of Iran governor Mohammad Reza Farzin claimed that dropping the US dollar would help to protect member states’ foreign exchange reserves while still enabling effective settlement of bilateral trade deals.

    Iran’s economy minister recently revealed that less than 10% of the US-sanctioned country’s international trade was being conducted using the dollar, down from 30% two years ago.

    https://www.rt.com/business/577207-i...ive-sanctions/

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