Turmoil in Niger

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/...77049496301568

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
My own comment:

Russia has very good relations with many African states (including Nigeria and Senegal, which are both pro-intervention), and also the African Union itself. I could easily see a time, sooner rather than later, when they might host a peace conference, maybe with the Chinese in a prominent role as well. No-one I'm aware of has mentioned either of these two points.

I may have been on to something there. From Zero Hedge a few hours ago:

• https://zerohedge.com/geopolitical/w...er-coup-crisis

West Alarmed as Putin has begun to Mediate Niger Coup Crisis

Western nations are alarmed at the prospect of Russia deepening its presence and influence in West and Central Africa, particularly following the tumult in Niger late last month, which culminated in the July 26 coup against democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum.

The West-friendly group of surrounding nations, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has since threatened military intervention towards restoring Bazoum, and there have been persistent rumors that France is encouraging concrete action. Mali has played a key role in all of this given it stands on the other side, and is dead set against any interference in Niger, with fresh reports that Mali’s military leader Assimi Goita has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone.

Goita announced that in the Tuesday call Putin "stressed the importance of a peaceful resolution of the situation for a more stable Sahel" - and the sides confirmed it was initiated by Mali.

According to a Kremlin statement, "The parties specifically focused on the current situation in the Sahara-Sahel region and emphasised, in particular, the importance of settling the situation in the Republic of Niger solely through peaceful political and diplomatic means."

Putin separately told Tuesday’s Moscow Conference on International Security (MCIS) that "The countries of the Sahara-Sahel region, such as the Central African Republic and Mali, were under direct attack from numerous terrorist groups after the US and its allies unleashed aggression against Libya, which led to the collapse of the Libyan state."

The handful of regional supporters of the Niger junta have emphasized the same point of late...

https://twitter.com/sethharpesq/stat...31587617599488

Niger is known for having uranium, but it is the significant gold and oil resources which likely of greater interest to the large powers of Russia, China, the US, and Europe.

The West's concern is likely to grow given Putin's mediation with Mali's leadership. Russia's Wagner Group also has an extensive presence across the African continent, having long had security and counterterrorism contracts with multiple governments.

So far, there's still not been openness to negotiations on the part of the Niger coup leaders and Bazoum remains under hose arrest. Per the latest update in Reuters, "West African army chiefs will meet on Thursday and Friday in Ghana to prepare for a possible military intervention, which the main regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened to launch if diplomacy fails."

Any external military intervention could spark a broader war across the Sahel, and would also be seized upon by regional terrorist groups. In this scenario Wagner fighters would likely enter the fray.

[Bill Ryan]

The African Union has now stated that they're against military intervention in Niger. But the US neocons are pressuring ECOWAS to do just that. (Why does Victoria Nuland want war in West Africa??)

Here's The Duran with an update on this very dangerous situation, which is beginning to look like a major standoff.

Pressuring ECOWAS to intervene in Niger

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=ISDU-bOV_Cg

[shaberon]

This was originally posted with the wrong picture and statement:


"Mali and Burkina Faso turned their commitments into concrete action by deploying warplanes to respond to any attack on Niger," it said, noting the planes were Super Tucano fighter jets.


It's a BrazilianEmbraer, and if they send their full inventories, they have:


Burkina Faso Air Force – 3 aircraft delivered in September 2011

Mali Air Force – 4 A-29 delivered in July 2018


Mauritanian example:





The Brazilian machine is made with Canadian engines and Israeli avionics, and is outfitted for a variety of mostly American munitions.

The idea is that it is cheap and effective in low-risk operations--most notably, Colombia has ground on FARC several times with these planes.

If you are Nigeria, you must obtain permission:

In April 2017, the United States indicated that it would be moving forward with a deal to sell up to 12 of the aircraft for up to US $600 million, ending delays that had been caused by human-rights concerns. In August 2017, the US Department of State approved of the sale of 12 aircraft and associated supplies and weapons.


It wouldn't be much of a fighter, except against others of its kind.

Does this...make much difference? Who knows, but it is a material support.

[chrifri]

Maybe an interesting development

Fabian
@fabsenbln
#Mali🇲🇱- Yesterday evening around 07:00pm Moscow time, a few hours after the #Wagner private jet crash, a "Ministry for Emergency Situations" Il-76 (reg. RA-76841) took off from Zhukovsky Airport to Damascus🇸🇾 (2h stopover), until the flight continued & just arrived in Bamako.

https://twitter.com/fabsenbln/status...24770141081752

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/s...05396346962130

¤=[Post Update]=¤

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/s...93101017497608

Text:
❗️ France did not accept Niger's request, as the illegitimate government does not have the authority to demand something from them - AFP

Paris is aware of the decision of the rebel authorities to expel the ambassador from the country and took note of this.

✖️ However, France is not going to follow the instructions, as it does not recognize any decisions of the rebellious government as legal.

Also Ambassador to Niger - 🗿

Ostashko! Important - subscribe

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...77395358122145

[Ravenlocke]

Text:
ECOWAS forces have fully completed preparations for military intervention in Niger.
About 12,000 military and hundreds of armored vehicles are ready to invade at any moment.

Comment: Fck'em they are slower that the UA offensive. Guys just stay home and let it be...

#source (https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/115833)

@Slavyangrad

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...46176377434193

[shaberon]

Apparently it is not just France, there are others being ejected. Niger is the tip of the iceberg for a rapid pivot in the think tanks on the accumulated results of no strategy:



The latest study by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, titled "Less is More: A New Strategy for US Security Assistance to Africa" and released earlier this week, arrived at the uncomfortable conclusion that US military assistance in Africa "does not work."

The report was released in the wake of the military takeover in Niger, which has received around $500 million in US security aid since 2016. To add to the embarrassment, the takeover was conducted by at least five former US military trainees. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland's trip to Niger earlier this month proved futile. On Friday, Niger's military leaders reportedly gave the French, German, Nigerian, and US ambassadors 48 hours to leave the country.



There is more in the article about the obvious entry of BRICS into the vacuum, but, the realization is that military intervention has simply given some training to people who are going to do whatever they want:




US Cannot Win Its 20-Year War on Terror in Africa

The report by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs is far from the first assessment of Washington's security failures in Africa.
Back in October 2022, Rolling Stone shed light on a Pentagon report that was "quietly released" a month earlier and unveiled systemic US flaws across Africa. The report indicated that despite sending forces to at least 22 countries in Africa, the US had not reached its objectives over the past two decades in degrading and disrupting violent extremist organizations (who continue to gain ground across the continent).

Commenting on the Pentagon's paper, CIA veteran Larry Johnson told Sputnik at the time:

"[T]here's an assumption, I think, at large in the world that the United States has a clear plan and objectives in what is happening on the ground there, when in fact, it's just the opposite. It's almost reactive. There is no grand strategy. There is no long-term plan. It is more like putting out grass fires that spring up. I know from my own experience working with AFRICOM from its inception for about 10-15 years, that AFRICOM was always focused on getting training experience in the region but has not reflected any broad political strategy."


Washington's supposed patchy African strategy has resulted in protracted violence with US African trainees using their skills and modern weapons to foment regime changes.

The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a DC-based think tank, has found that at least 15 US-supported officers have been involved in 12 coups in West Africa and the greater Sahel during the “War on Terror.” The think tank's list includes military personnel from Burkina Faso (2014, 2015, and twice in 2022); Chad (2021); Gambia (2014); Guinea (2021); Mali (2012, 2020, 2021); Mauritania (2008); and Niger (2023).

"The total number of US-trained mutineers across Africa since 9/11 may be far higher than is known, but the State Department, which tracks data on US trainees, is either unwilling or unable to provide it," the think tank pointed out.



Africa meet Afghanistan. The War on Terror has been designated a failure.

[Ravenlocke]

Text:

🇳🇪🇫🇷 The military government in Niger threatens the French ambassador with "force"

The military junta in Niger threatened the French ambassador, Sylvain Itte, with force if he does not leave the country immediately.

"Who are you to refuse to leave?" military government spokesman said, addressing the ambassador.

africaintel

https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1695817566466306307

[Ravenlocke]

Text:
Times basically up for France in Niger.

The people are already peacefully gathered around the French Embassy. The next few hours could be critical.

They French could have evacuated their embassy, maybe they still can, but will the popular military government back down?

Very hard to say, they need to assert their independence but they also don't want to trigger a massive war.

Hopefully the French come to their senses and leave peacefully.

https://twitter.com/BenFRubinstein/s...90499628851618

https://twitter.com/Sprinter99800/st...96578265940386

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/s...09172389245437

[Bill Ryan]

A good 17-minute analysis by Alexander Mercouris of the current situation, which is changing daily and sometimes by the hour. It's both volatile and dangerous.

There's nothing much here that those following this closely probably don't already know, but as one might expect, the analytical insights are most interesting and valuable.

Neocon adventure in Niger risks big conflict in West Africa

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=UahcGfhWy20

[Tintin]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
A good 17-minute analysis by Alexander Mercouris of the current situation, which is changing daily and sometimes by the hour. It's both volatile and dangerous.

There's nothing much here that those following this closely probably don't already know, but as one might expect, the analytical insights are most interesting and valuable.

Neocon adventure in Niger risks big conflict in West Africa

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=UahcGfhWy20

Without having listened to this - yet - it's been reported that the Niger authorities have cut electricity supply, water and food supplies to the French Embassy in the country. This apparently follows the decision of French-controlled states bordering Niger to block food and medical aid into Niger. Also reported here in what I'd suggest is a pretty serious escalation.

[Ravenlocke]

Text:
🇳🇪🇫🇷 Niger police obstruct the installation of an electric generator at the French embassy

A tractor with an electric generator drove up to the French Embassy in the Niger capital Niamey on Tuesday, but police officers did not allow entry into the territory of the diplomatic mission, RIA Novosti correspondent reports.

By all external signs, the buildings on the territory of the French embassy are de-energized. An attempt to transport a large generator to the territory indirectly confirms interruptions in power supply or its complete absence.

Earlier, local media reported that the city authorities cut off the supply of state electricity to the French embassy, ​​and the water supply was also turned off. The same measures were taken against the French Consulate General in Zinder. It was also reported that the military council asked all companies to stop supplying fuel and food to the French diplomatic mission.

The French TV channel TF1, citing its diplomatic source, in turn, reported that the French embassy in Niamey did not turn off electricity and water, despite large-scale anti-French demonstrations, the embassy was not attacked and continues to function.

The authors of the TF1 report suggest that rumors of a communal blockade of the embassy arose from a communiqué issued by activists from the Support Committee of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP). This statement, in particular, said that suppliers who continue to provide the French side with goods and services will be considered “enemies of the sovereign people.”

French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed earlier on Monday that the French ambassador would remain in Niger despite pressure from the rebel government.

On Friday, the Niger Foreign Ministry decided to deprive the French ambassador of Agrément and asked him to leave the country within 48 hours. In Paris, in turn, they said that they took note of the request, noting that the rebels do not have the authority to ask for it. On Monday, a number of media outlets, citing social networks, reported that the new Niger authorities had disconnected the diplomatic mission from life support systems.

At the end of July, the military of Niger announced on national television the removal of President Mohamed Bazoum from power and the formation of the National Council for the Defense of the Fatherland (CNSP). The leaders of most Western countries and the regional organization ECOWAS condemned the coup. In early August, the participants in an emergency meeting of the Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces of the ECOWAS countries, held in Abuja (Nigeria), adopted a plan in case of military intervention in Niger.

https://twitter.com/apocalypseos/sta...27631222071327

[Ravenlocke]

Text:
🇫🇷🇳🇪 France's Military Presence Declared Occupation in Niger - Al Hadath

The new government of Niger has nullified all security agreements with France, rendering the continued presence of European military contingents tasked with overseeing uranium and other resource shipments impossible.

❗️Sky News Arabia reports that France has been given 30 days to withdraw its troops.

☢️ Recall that Niger was a supplier of up to 40% of France's total uranium volume. The loss of this vital source of affordable energy puts Macron in a position where he may have to participate in a military intervention in Niger to secure uranium supplies. Macron has already approved French participation in ECOWAS' (Economic Community of West African States) invasion of Niger.

Earlier, ECOWAS members had quietly agreed on a date for military action in Niger but kept it confidential. The new government of Niger is preparing for defense.

This is a developing situation. Stay tuned for updates.

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...84954024624540

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/Antiwarcom/statu...40507230449906

https://news.antiwar.com/2023/08/31/...ch-ambassador/

Niger Orders Police to Expel French Ambassador
France ignored a deadline for its ambassador to leave and is threatening military action
by Dave DeCamp Posted on August 31, 2023Categories NewsTags Niger
Niger’s military junta has ordered police to expel the French ambassador from the country and revoked his diplomatic immunity.

Ambassador Sylvain Itte was ordered to leave the country within 48 hours last Friday, but Paris ignored the deadline. The order for Itte to leave was made in response to his refusal to meet with the new post-coup government that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26.

Despite the junta’s new order for Itte to be expelled by the police, France is still refusing to comply. The French Foreign Ministry said Thursday that the ambassador will stay put and that the junta, led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, has no authority to make such an order.

According to Al Jazeera, a French military spokesman threatened military action if the situation became too tense. “The French military forces are ready to respond to any upturn in tension that could harm French diplomatic and military premises in Niger,” the spokesman said. “Measures have been take to protect these premises.”

France has about 1,500 troops in the former French colony and has strongly backed threats from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to intervene in Niger if Bazoum is not reinstated. French President Emanuel Macron said this week that Paris would support such military action, which could spark a major regional war.

[Kryztian]

France to withdraw from Niger – Macron
French troops will depart the west African nation in “the months to come,” the president said
https://www.rt.com/africa/583491-fra...-troops-niger/



France will pull its military and diplomats from Niger after a successful coup by anti-French forces, President Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday. The move will see around 1,500 soldiers leave by the end of the year.

“France has decided to withdraw its ambassador. In the next hours our ambassador and several diplomats will return to France,” Macron told France 2 television on Sunday. “And we will put an end to our military cooperation with the Niger authorities,” he continued, adding that French troops would return home in “the months to come.”

Niger’s pro-French president, Mohamed Bazoum, was ousted in a military coup in July. Capitalizing on widespread public dissatisfaction with France’s decade-long anti-insurgent operation in the region, the coup leaders immediately suspended a military cooperation agreement with the French government and demanded that French troops leave the country.

The military leaders of Niger then demanded in August that French ambassador Sylvain Itte leave, revoking his diplomatic immunity when Paris refused. Last week, Macron claimed that the Nigerian military was holding Itte “hostage” by blocking food deliveries to the French embassy.

Around 1,500 French soldiers are currently based in Niger, after Paris suspended military operations in Mali and Burkina Faso following similar coups d’etat in both countries. The French base in Niger was one of the largest in the Sahel region, and when the withdrawal is complete, only several dozen French troops will remain in Chad.

With French influence waning, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso announced the formation of a military alliance last week. Mali and Burkina Faso both informally committed to backing Niger in the event of an invasion by the regional ECOWAS bloc after the coup, and the signing of the defense pact formalizes this agreement.

Malian Defense Minister Abdoulaye Diop told Reuters that the Alliance of Sahel States, as the three-nation bloc will be known, will also work together to fight terrorism and secure their shared borders.

Despite acquiescing to the coup plotters’ demands, Macron insisted that France continues to recognize Bazoum as Niger’s “sole legitimate authority.”

[Bill Ryan]

And a further update.

The text:

Thousands celebrate departure of French ambassador from Niger
Thousands of Nigerians gathered near France’s military base in Niamey to celebrate the departure of Paris’ ambassador earlier this week, about a month after the military junta ordered him to leave. But anti-French activists say the battle is not yet over.
"This victory is not, if you like, a total victory for this revolution, it's only the beginning. We call on the entire population of Niger to mobilise as one until the last French soldier leaves Niger, said demonstrators.
"We’re overjoyed. But just because the ambassador has gone doesn't mean that we're going to stay at home and say 'It's over, we've won'. No, we are going to continue the fight."
They are now waiting for France to withdraw its around 1,500 soldiers from Niger, which Paris says will take place before the end of the year.

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/83452

[shaberon]

As ECOWAS does their thing:


On October 19, the deposed President of Niger Mohamed Bazoum reportedly tried to escape from his place of detention in Niamey. The attempt failed. He and some of his accomplices were arrested.


while the neighbor:


The Malian Army and Wagner PMCs regained 17 towns, villages and military bases in the north-east of the country from the Azawad movement and other insurgent groups

[Ravenlocke]

https://x.com/baronitaigas/status/1737161261450670544