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Thread: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

  1. Link to Post #2261
    Avalon Member Ravenlocke's Avatar
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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    Text:
    Elon Musk meeting with “CCP” officials in “communist” China today! 😱 Brainwashed American minds cannot process this.

    Here’s Elon with Chinese Minister of Commerce, Minister of IT etc.

    And guess what? These guys are smarter than any US counterparts. Here’s why:

    In the US, all these posts are political appointments. Absolute idiots get the jobs because of ideology, campaign contributions, lobbying, identity quotas etc.

    “We need 1 man who loves to wear skirts, 7 actual women, and 4 from swing states to win the next election…”

    Like, Buttigieg is Biden’s Secretary of Transportation! WTF is his qualification? Nothing!

    In China, by the time someone becomes, say, Minister of IT, he would be so freaking smart and experienced that he could talk about real EV technology with Elon Musk. It’s called meritocracy.

    But dumb American politicians are good at sensationalism and drama for TV.

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...47103767896064



    Text:

    Huang, 60, is hardly alone in courting Chinese customers. He joins a growing list of corporate chieftains taking advantage of China’s post-Covid reopening to visit the world’s No. 2 economy, including Apple Inc.’s Tim Cook, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon and billionaire Elon Musk. Despite a pandemic-era downturn, China remains a key market for many of the world’s biggest companies and many economists expect growth to re-accelerate over the course of 2023

    https://twitter.com/pstAsiatech/stat...38429104685056

    Last edited by Ravenlocke; 1st June 2023 at 20:28.

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  3. Link to Post #2262
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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/st...33231921479681



    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    Text:
    Why did Xi say yesterday that the security threats facing China are getting “considerably more complex and much more difficult” and asked the PLA to be ready for “worst-case and most extreme scenarios”?

    This is why ⬇️

    The US calls it "deterrence" but China certainly doesn't see it that way. And no country in the world would see it that way if a rival who consistently calls you their "biggest threat" encircled you militarily, making alliances with your neighbors.


    https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/st...06607101198337


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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...29041556312064


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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1664445044479098880


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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status...74376216121347


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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/dimitrilascaris/...18987601252357




    https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/12...greeces-reach/

    F-35 deal comes closer within Greece’s reach

    US Senator Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, has approved the sale of Lockheed Martin Corp’s F-35 fighter jets to Greece, adding the last signature needed before the deal can go through, Hellas Journal reported on Thursday.

    The deal was green-lighted by the committee’s chair, US Senator Bob Menendez, in February, and has also secured the approval of Republican co-chair Michael McCaul and of Gregory Meeks, the ranking Democrat on the committee.

    Now that the consensus of all four officials has been obtained, the US government will formally notify Congress of the sale of F-35s to Greece, and from there, the prescribed procedure for the ratification of the defense contract will be followed.

    As Kathimerini has earlier reported, the issue of the sale of the F-35 jets to Greece is proceeding with the delivery of the first aircraft between 2028 and 2033, despite the fact that a Letter of Acceptance (LOA) is still expected from the US side.

    The first installment for the supply of the fifth-generation F-35 fighters is expected to amount to €350 million, following the finalization of the deduction of the so-called SSI (security, supply, information) from the final price of the US-engineered aircraft.

    Cost estimates can be relatively accurate based on fixed characteristics, such as the number of a total of 20 F-35As that the Hellenic Air Force will take delivery of between 2028 and 2033.

    ​​​​​​The procedure followed for the approval of defense contracts entails the US State Department first informally sounding out Congress with the proposed sale. Although not bound by the process, the administration is accustomed to taking Congress’ opinion seriously and thus avoiding openly confronting it on the approval of defense contracts. It is precisely at this stage that the F-16 upgrade that Turkey has been trying to achieve up to this point has stalled.

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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/dimitrilascaris/...37592862322688


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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/st...59938475954176



    https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/st...51184816685058



    https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/st...85805893648388



    https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/st...74862568751104


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  17. Link to Post #2269
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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/st...70959810736135



    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/t...=ap_svxqtj5k4k

    Turkey's future foreign policy: Expect good ties with Russia and the Gulf

    With divisive and nail-biting elections behind it, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government is expected to plough on with its independent foreign policy while seeking fewer confrontations.

    Multiple sources outlined Erdogan's objectives for the future: diversifying the country's allies; preventing significant diplomatic crises; expediting the reconciliation efforts with Syria, Egypt and the Gulf states; and, above all, upholding independence.

    "Turkey is positioning itself as a global actor or power. This signifies that Turkey adopts a distinct perspective on every conflict or issue it encounters," said Murat Yesiltas, head of foreign policy research at Ankara-based think tank the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research (Seta).

    It's a trend seen from the Ukraine war to Syrian Kurdish groups to the eastern Mediterranean, an approach that has occasionally placed Turkey in opposition to various regional and international powers.

    And though the past decade has often been confrontational, there's a general sense from Turkish officials that, now detentes have been reached with several regional rivals, efforts will be made to avoid direct confrontations.

    A foreign ministry source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Middle East Eye that the economy will play a crucial role in shaping Turkey's foreign policy in the coming five years.

    Nonetheless, it is anticipated Turkey will grapple with a range of challenges and concerns.

    Relations with the West

    "Turkey will be pursuing an independent foreign policy," James Jeffrey, former US special envoy to the global coalition against Islamic State group (IS), said last week.

    This independence from the West is evident in three key areas.

    Firstly, Turkey steadfastly demands the extradition of several Turkish citizens from Sweden on terrorism charges in return for accepting the Scandinavian country into Nato.

    Secondly, Ankara persistently urges the US to halt its support for the PYD, a group that controls northeast Syria and which Turkey views as the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), an armed group that has waged a decades-long war on the Turkish state.

    Thirdly, Erdogan maintains a close personal rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and refuses to join western sanctions on Moscow imposed over the invasion of Ukraine. In response, the United States has delayed the sale of F-16 warplanes to Turkey.

    According to the Hurriyet daily, in a recent phone conversation between Erdogan and US President Joe Biden, the latter expressed his desire to advance the F-16 deal. However, Biden indicated that the ratification of Sweden's accession to Nato was a precondition.

    "I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let's get that done," Biden later told reporters.

    Conversely, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Sweden's ratification was not a requirement for the sale of warplanes.

    According to Yesiltas, the main obstacle to achieving a full detente in Turkish-US relations is US support for the PYD, whose armed wing, the YPG, is Washington's chief ally against IS on the ground. However, he believes that the US is willing to continue working with Turkey as long as Ankara seeks to repair ties.

    Regarding the European Union, key issues such as Sweden's Nato bid, the 2016 refugee deal, and the longstanding stalemate between Turkey and Greece over maritime borders remain at the forefront.

    Several European leaders promptly congratulated Erdogan on his election win, emphasising the importance of maintaining cooperation with Turkey to preserve the refugee deal and stability in the Mediterranean Sea, while expressing their expectation for Sweden's ratification.

    Erdogan is expected to prioritise maintaining stable relations with the EU and upholding the deal aimed at preventing refugees from reaching Europe.

    In exchange for financial support and visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to the EU's border-free Schengen zone, Turkey has successfully curbed the flow of migrants to EU territories. However, the promise of visa-free travel has not been fulfilled due to a disagreement over Turkey's anti-terrorism law.

    Erdogan recently accused the EU of using visa issuance as a means of blackmail against Turkey. Turkey currently faces the highest number of visa denials among countries seeking entry into the EU.

    According to Yesiltas, there is a likelihood that Turkey will ratify Sweden's accession bid during the Nato summit in July. However, he also expects Sweden to take measures to prevent anti-Turkey demonstrations by supporters of the PKK.

    In addition, Yesiltas believes that Turkey will request EU member states simplify visa application procedures.

    In the eastern Mediterranean, there is a potential for a period of detente with Greece as Turkey focuses its efforts on exploring energy resources in the Black Sea and the Gabar Mountain, in southeast Turkey, where natural gas and oil have been recently discovered. However, the issue of a divided Cyprus is expected to remain unresolved.

    Russia and Ukraine

    Turkey has pursued a balanced approach regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine from the outset.

    While Ankara has sold armed drones to Ukraine, it has refrained from imposing any sanctions on Russia. Additionally, the deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations to allow the safe export of grain from Ukrainian Black Sea ports has strengthened Ankara's position.

    Turkish officials indicated to MEE that some European Union countries are in favour of Turkey maintaining this policy as it enables them to engage in discussions with Moscow through Turkey as an intermediary.

    On a different note, Erdogan inaugurated the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, constructed by Russia, just before the elections, with Putin attending via video link.

    The Akkuyu project extends beyond a mere construction endeavour, as it facilitates sharing of knowledge and technology between the two countries. In essence, Russia has played a significant role in Turkey's entry into the realm of nuclear power.

    Nonetheless, Ankara and Moscow find themselves at odds over several issues, including Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria and Libya.

    Middle East and North Africa

    Turkey has been a staunch supporter of popular uprisings in the region, offering its support to governments in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt that followed the Arab Spring.

    Consequently, this led to a confrontation between Ankara and several Gulf states, which have been supportive of various counter-revolutions.

    However, Erdogan has initiated several reconciliation processes with countries such as Egypt, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

    With Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, this involved signing substantial economic agreements worth billions of dollars, as well as securing a $5bn deposit in Turkey's Central Bank.

    According to Yesiltas, re-establishing close ties with the Gulf states is not only beneficial for Turkey but also for the UAE and Saudi Arabia. He argues that we are now entering a phase where geo-economics takes precedence over geopolitics.

    Yesiltas believes the UAE and other regional actors, including Egypt, no longer wish to continue military confrontations in Libya and instead recognise the value of Turkey's expertise and knowledge in the defence industry and technology.

    Furthermore, he said, the rapprochement with the Gulf states and Egypt does not imply that Turkey will abandon its military influence in countries like Libya or Somalia.

    Turkey also held a meeting with the Syrian government in Moscow in May, a decade after cutting ties and declaring support for Syria's opposition.

    However, immediate positive results from this reconciliation are unlikely, as both sides have demands that seem unfeasible. While the Syrian government insists on Turkey's withdrawal of troops from the country's north, Ankara believes that such a pullout would strengthen the power of the PYD.

    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/t...=ap_1bkhiqpwit

    Turkey: Erdogan announces new cabinet, signals turn in economic policy

    President Tayyip Erdogan announced his new cabinet following his win in Turkey's 28 May runoff vote, with picks signalling a return to more orthodox economic policies.

    In a highly-anticipated appointment, Erdogan named Mehmet Simsek to his cabinet to tackle Turkey's cost-of-living crisis and other strains.

    Simsek's appointment as treasury and finance minister could set the stage for interest rate hikes in coming months, analysts said - a marked turnaround from Erdogan's longstanding policy of slashing rates despite soaring inflation.

    A former Merrill Lynch economist, Simsek is known to oppose Erdogan's unconventional policies.

    After winning a runoff election last weekend, Erdogan, 69, who has ruled for more than two decades, began his new five-year term by calling on Turks to set aside differences and focus on the future.

    Erdogan called for unity during a lavish ceremony at his presidential palace in the capital Ankara on Saturday, attended by dozens of world leaders, including Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

    "We will embrace all 85 million people, regardless of their political views, origins, creeds or sects," he said, expressing hope that his appeal would be reciprocated also by his opponents.

    "Turkey needs unity and solidarity more than ever," he said.

    Erdogan changed almost all his cabinet members except for his health and culture ministers.

    Turkey's new cabinet also includes Cevdet Yilmaz, another orthodox economic manager, as vice president, and the former head of the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) Hakan Fidan as foreign minister, replacing Mevlut Cavusoglu.

    Fidan has been at the helm of the MIT since 2010 - and Erdogan once called the 55-year-old his "secret-keeper".

    The apparent reversal in economic policy comes as many analysts say the big emerging market is heading for turmoil given depleted foreign reserves, an expanding state-backed protected deposits scheme, and unchecked inflation expectations.

    Simsek, 56, was highly regarded by financial markets when he served as finance minister and deputy prime minister between 2009 and 2018.

    'Delay a crisis'

    Analysts had predicted that Erdogan was almost certain to put him in charge of the economy, marking a partial return to more free-market policies after years of increasing state control of forex, credit and debt markets.

    After past episodes in which Erdogan pivoted to orthodoxy only to quickly return to his rate-cutting ways, much is expected to rely on how much independence Simsek is granted.

    "This suggests Erdogan has recognised the eroding trust in his ability to manage Turkey’s economic challenges. But while Simsek’s appointment is likely to delay a crisis, it is unlikely to present long-term fixes to the economy," said Emre Peker, a director at Eurasia Group covering Turkey.

    "Simsek will likely have a strong mandate early in his tenure, but face rapidly increasing political headwinds to implement policies as March 2024 local elections draw near."

    Erdogan's economic programme since 2021 stresses monetary stimulus and targeted credit to boost economic growth, exports and investments, pressing the central bank into action and badly eroding its independence.

    As a result, annual inflation hit a 24-year peak beyond 85 percent last year before easing.

    The lira has lost more than 90 percent of its value in the last decade after a series of crashes, the worst in late 2021. It hit new all-time lows beyond 20 to the dollar after the 28 May vote.

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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1665018563067801602



    Text:
    Commander of the Iranian Navy, Admiral Shahram Irani:

    - A regional naval alliance soon between Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Iraq, Pakistan and India
    - We are glad that the regional countries are convinced that establishing maritime security depends on the cooperation and coordination between the countries of the region.

    Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan:
    - I will visit Tehran soon
    - We are heading to a new phase of the relationship with Iran to achieve the interests of the two peoples and the region, and we are pleased with the progress achieved in bilateral relations
    - We thank the Iranian leadership for the assistance it provided to the Saudi technical delegation to open the Saudi embassy and consulate in Iran.

    believeinsyria

    https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1665021569838530562


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  21. Link to Post #2271
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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    Text:
    Chinese warship and US destroyer in Taiwan Strait - PRC allegedly disrupts Canada-US exercises in South China Sea

    A Chinese warship passed within 130 metres of the USS Chung Hong destroyer. The scenario for the Canada-US exercise in the Taiwan Strait was disrupted to avoid a collision between the vessels. The Chinese navy ship notified the USS Chung Hong of the excessive approach, but the US ship was not about to give up speed.

    Once again, but on the water, the Chinese People's Liberation Army is showing the US that the waters of the South China Sea must be cleared of non-Asian military installations. And especially from NATO exercises in the strategic Taiwan Strait.

    #source

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    https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...99279994683392




    Text:
    🇺🇸🇹🇼 The American destroyer Chung-Hoon and the Canadian frigate Montreal made a passage through the Taiwan Strait. This is yet another provocation against China while the Chinese Defense Minister is in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit.

    #source:
    https://t.me/china3army/21282

    https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...95809015205888

    Last edited by Ravenlocke; 3rd June 2023 at 21:55.

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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    Text:
    The Chinese fleet has overtaken the American one in many ways, writes CNN.

    The PRC now has about 340 warships, while the US has less than 300.

    According to Pentagon calculations, the Chinese fleet will grow to 400 ships in the next two years, while the Americans will need another 22 years to reach 350 units.

    Some experts estimate that China can build three warships in the time the US builds one.

    Moreover, some of the Chinese ships may have more firepower.

    For example, the new generation Type 055 destroyers. China already has eight of them, and the United States has only two similar ships to the Zumwalt project. The Chinese new destroyers have 112 missile launchers, while the US ones have 96.

    American experts propose to solve the problem by starting the production of ships at shipyards in Japan and South Korea, where there are enough specialists and developments.

    But this is currently prohibited by American law - to build ships abroad and purchase imported ones.

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    https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...96018486263808

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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/timand2037/statu...82261153169408


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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    https://twitter.com/mazzenilsson/sta...85989381914627


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    Default Re: Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Israel, Iran, Turkey, Putin, China, and World War III

    Text:

    Tomorrow is June 4, the day of mourning for the CIA & capitalism. 😭😭

    1989 was the year when the USSR started to collapse.

    If only China could be swept under that wave, the globalists’ dream of world domination would come to fruition!

    Hence the Tiananmen Square protests!

    Just like any Color Revolution, all the usual suspects were involved — George Soros, CIA, Western media propaganda, and some pro-US leadership within China.

    On the ground were mostly innocent students and workers, who had no idea what was happening. They wanted economic and political reforms but not Western-style democracy.

    They were mostly pro-Mao, pro-socialism, pro-police, pro-military etc.

    The police were unarmed -- didn't even have batons. Because nobody expected any trouble.

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...05882365841408



    Text:
    By the way, the gathering wouldn't even have happened.

    But fate would deal China a bad card.

    A famous reformer, Hu Yaobang -- Chairman & General Secretary of the CCP -- died on April 15, 1989.

    He was loved by young Chinese people, who then gathered at the Tiananmen Square to mourn his death.

    That was the perfect opportunity the USA was waiting for!

    Thus, on April 20, 1989 – five days after Yaobang’s death – James Lilley was appointed as the US Ambassador to China. He was a 30-year veteran from the CIA.

    But you can't start a revolution in a week.

    Since 1986, George Soros had already spent over $1 million cultivating a sizeable number of young radicals.

    Now, these useful idiots infiltrated the mourning crowd at the Tiananmen Square and transformed it into an American movement.

    It took the Chinese government one month to realize that shenanigans were happening.

    For example, BBC and Voice of America (CIA outlet) were broadcasting all kinds of anti-communist propaganda from Taiwan and Hong Kong.

    So, a martial law was passed on May 20, asking the people to end the gathering.

    That's when the provocateurs started the violence. They kept escalating.

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...12202485739520



    Text:
    Armed with guns, Molotov cocktails etc., the saboteurs violently attacked and killed 100+ police and soldiers.

    Chinese police, at the time, had no crowd-control tools like tear gas. They didn't even have guns. Thus, the police got beaten up by the mobs.

    This is why Beijing had to send in military gear, whose sole purpose was to scare people.

    The military let the people destroy tanks, armored vehicles etc. If the communist party were so tyrannical, none of this would have happened.

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...18870128873473



    Text:
    Did people die on the night of June 3?

    Yeah, absolutely. There was mayhem in parts of Beijing.

    Equal number of protesters & law enforcement died that night. Total deaths: 200-300.

    America's goal was a bloody massacre, which could be exploited for regime change in China.

    (Tiananmen Square on the morning of June 4 &#128071

    When there was no bloodshed, the US invented a massacre.

    This is typical American atrocity propaganda.

    Crazy stories were made up: Like Chinese soldiers on top of buildings mowing down citizens with machine guns; or tanks deliberately crushing people in Tiananmen Square.

    Psychopaths of the United States of America.

    And all the young Chinese leaders (stooges) of the protests were able to escape China few days before June 4 and fly to the USA. This clandestine plan was called "Operation Yellowbird."

    Even the CIA operation had to have a racist overtone. 🙄
    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...24458917318657



    Text:
    Like this crazy student leader -- Chai Ling -- who admitted in an interview:

    “I wanted to tell them [students] that we were expecting bloodshed, that it would take a massacre, which would spill blood like a river through Tiananmen Square, to awaken the people. But how could I tell them this? How could I tell them that their lives would have to be sacrificed in order to win?”

    She went to Princeton and Harvard... and even got nominated for Nobel prize!! 🤡of the American Empire.

    But the United States of America is a big fukkking liar.

    Every Western narrative about China is a lie -- Tiananmen Square massacre, 60 million people killed by Mao's Great leap Forward, Uyghur genocide blah blah.

    And there are so many sociopaths at all levels of the US establishment, they can't now figure out what's a woman or a man.

    The country has turned into the monster that it ascribed to its geopolitical competitors.

    This is the price you pay for imperialism and colonialism.
    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...29068214140930



    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    https://twitter.com/Kanthan2030/stat...31123175370752


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    https://www.pekingnology.com/p/freed...ion-claimed-by

    “Freedom of Navigation” Claimed by U.S. is NOT “Freedom of Navigation” under International Law
    Analysis from South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) by Lei Xiaolu of Wuhan University.

    The South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), launched by Chinese scholars and led by Hu Bo, research professor & director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies, Peking University on May 15 published 《此“航行自由”非彼“航行自由”》, written by Lei Xiaolu of Wuhan University, analyzing the difference between the “Freedom of Navigation” claimed by the United States and in International Law.

    The SCSPI has just published its English version and upon its generous authorization, Pekingnology is glad to share it here.

    Lei Xiaolu is currently an associate professor at the China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies (CIBOS), Wuhan University, and vice director of SCSPI. She obtained her LLM degree in 2009 and PhD Degree in 2012 from Wuhan University specializing in international law. In 2017, she was a visiting scholar at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technology University of Singapore. Her research interest covers the area of Pacific dispute settlement mechanisms, especially the peaceful settlement of the South China Sea disputes, China’s maritime law and policy, and the legal issues in the law of the sea and general international law.

    The “Freedom of Navigation” Claimed by the United States is Not “Freedom of Navigation” under International Law

    “Freedom of navigation” is a core claim of the U.S. maritime order and has been used to accuse and suppress China's maritime activities. Recently, the U.S. Embassy to China published an article on the U.S. position on the history and connotation of “FON” as a standard to the principle of “freedom of navigation” in international law. In fact, the “FON” pursued by the United States and the “FON” recognized by international law are not the same thing at all.

    The right of navigation and its limitations under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and general international law

    There is a fundamental difference between the freedom of navigation claimed by the United States and the real freedom of navigation under international law. According to the U.S. Embassy article, freedom of navigation is the right of its ships and aircraft to navigate and overfly in so-called “international waters” and innocent passage in the territorial waters of coastal states “without unlawful restrictions by States.”[1] According to Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy: Achieving U.S. National Security Objectives in a Changing Environment by the Department of Defense in 2015, freedom of the seas means not only freedom of passage for merchant ships, but also the use of air and sea by military vessels and aircraft.[2]

    Although the concept of “freedom of the seas” has an ancient history, the rules of international law governing navigation have changed significantly with the development of the international law of the sea, particularly with the conclusion of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (hereinafter referred to as “the Convention”). Despite the best efforts of the United States to unite with its allies in negotiations to maintain the so-called freedom of navigation in traditional ways, the Convention ultimately aims to maintain a balance between the interests of maritime powers and coastal states. There has never been an unrestricted right of navigation in the Convention or in general international law.

    The disagreement between the United States and China is not about whether other states have navigational rights in the various maritime areas, but rather about the extent to which navigational and other rights can be enjoyed and exercised, specifically, what constitutes an “unlawful restriction” on the navigational rights of coastal states.

    U.S. national and military strategy requires that its warships, aircraft, and submarines have unimpeded passage through the world's vital seas, straits, archipelagic sea lanes, and the territorial and archipelagic waters of archipelagic states, more precisely, “it is in the best interests of both coastal and maritime States that the coastal state not be faced with a decision as to whether or not to permit transits”.[3] In 1986, when U.S. aircraft passed through the Strait of Gibraltar for military operations against Libya, neither Spain nor Morocco, as coastal states, were asked for consent for U.S. aircraft to fly over their territorial waters within the Strait. Thus, what the United States insisted upon and pursued was a right of unimpeded transit passage without the consent, or any reaction from the coastal states.

    This position, is clearly not fully supported by the Convention. Although foreign ships enjoy the right of innocent passage in the territorial sea, Article 25 of the Convention provides that the coastal state may take the necessary steps to prevent passage which is not innocent. That is, the coastal States have the right to decide whether the passage of a foreign ship is consistent with the “right of innocent passage” under Article 19. The Convention also provides that the coastal State may adopt domestic law on innocent passage and may require a foreign warship that disregards any request for compliance with domestic law to leave the territorial sea immediately.[4] The Convention does not specify what steps and measures a coastal state may take or how a coastal state may “require” a foreign warship to leave its territorial seas. The practice varies from State to State. There is clearly no right of navigation in the territorial seas of a coastal state that ignores its decisions. U.S. warships may exercise the right of innocent passage, but at the same time must respect the coastal state's determination of whether the passage is innocent and comply with the laws and regulations of the coastal State concerning passage through the territorial sea.

    The right of navigation is not unrestricted in waters beyond the territorial sea. The United States argues that the freedom of navigation of the high seas is applicable beyond the territorial sea, and thus created the concept of “international waters”, which seems to express a meaning similar to the concept of “international airspace” in international law. However, unlike international law concerning airspace, the Convention categorized the ocean into different maritime zones, such as internal waters, territorial sea, contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, continental shelf, high seas and the Area, and the rights and obligations of states varies.

    The United States upholds that the exclusive economic zone (hereinafter referred to as “EEZ”), and the continental shelf only entitles the coastal state sovereign rights and jurisdiction related to the use of natural resources. In practice, however, the exercise of navigational rights in the EEZ should also take the obligation of “due regard” under Article 58 into account. Article 58 does not specify which kind of interests need to be “due regard”. During the negotiation of the Convention, the issue of the limits and legality of military activities in the EEZ was discussed, and concerns regarding the security interests of coastal States were raised by Peru, Brazil, Uruguay and others.[5] Until now, there is no consistent state practice among states on this issue. But at least, the right of navigation in the EEZ is limited by the jurisdiction of the coastal state regarding natural resources and marine environmental protection.

    The Convention also provides the regime of the straits used for international navigation and archipelagic sea lanes. All these regimes reflect the delicate balance between the sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction of the coastal State and the interests of navigation of other States. On the one hand, it guarantees the right of navigation, and on the other, it maintains the space for coastal states to take measures to safeguard their national security. Although President Ronald Reagan stated in 1983 that the United States “prepared to accept and act in accordance with the balance of interests relating to traditional uses of the oceans—such as navigation and overflight”,[6] the balance of interests as understood by the United States may differ from the understanding of state parties to the Convention.

    The United States is not a party to the Convention. In accordance with Articles 31 and 32 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, subsequent practice of the parties is to be considered when interpreting the Convention. That is, the Convention is likely to evolve in accordance with the subsequent practice of the Parties. But as a non-party to the Convention, the practice of the United States means nothing for the interpretation of the Convention. The United States has repeatedly asserted that the Convention reflects customary international law in the 1980s, but if the customary international law develops with different state practice, it might be inconsistent with the living Convention.

    Therefore, if the United States wants to preserve its navigational interests, forcing its position through unilateral acts is not the best option. It must face up to and respect the space reserved by the Convention for coastal States to maintain their national security and resolve the relevant issues with the States concerned through bilateral or multilateral legal arrangements.

    U.S. “Freedom of Navigation Operations”

    In 1979, noting that the forthcoming Convention would lead to creeping jurisdiction, and in response to what it called “excessive maritime claims,” the Carter Administration decided to implement the “Freedom of Navigation Program”.[7] The U.S. scholar William Aceves has pointed out that the FON program was established to warn countries that the United States would not tolerate claims having an adverse impact on maritime transit.[8]

    The United States has repeatedly touted its so-called freedom of navigation as a means of securing sea lanes and commercial prosperity, but this is not the case. According to the U.S. Department of Defense's 2015 Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy report, when it uses freedom of the seas, it means not only freedom of passage for merchant ships, but also the use of air and sea by warships and aircraft. The U.S. Department of Defense elaborates on the reasons for implementing the “FON program” in the Asia-Pacific, noting that “EEZs in the USPACOM region constitute 38 percent of the world’s oceans” and “if these excessive maritime claims were left unchallenged, they could restrict the ability of the United States and other countries to conduct routine military operations or exercises in more than one-third of the world’s oceans.”[9]

    Thus, while the U.S. “FON program” may be intended not to deter coastal states but to declare its legal position, the criteria of the implementation has largely relied on whether the claim affects freedom of navigation of the United States. This also determines that it is unlikely for the US to recognize the ambiguity of international law on this issue and take the initiative to solve the problem in an equal and consultative manner, taking into account the concerns and interests of other countries.

    For more than 40 years, the United States has claimed that it conducts its “FON program” against unspecified countries, seemingly emphasizing the neutrality of the operation. Since 2007, China has been a target country for the U.S. “FON program”. According to information publicly released by the Congressional Research Service and the U.S. Seventh Fleet, from 2015-2022, a total of 39 “FON operations”, or FONOPS, have been conducted against China around the islands and reefs in the South China Sea.[10]

    More importantly, unlike other “FONOPS”, U.S. “FONOPS” near islands and reefs in the South China Sea are more politically and strategically provocative.

    The United States does not usually release details of its “FON program”, but since 2015, the U.S. has taken the initiative to disclose the vessels and details of its “FONOPS” in response to the legal status of the islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Almost every operation is closely aligned with important U.S. policies and issues related to the sea and China. According to scholarly statistics, of the 39 “FONOPS” in the South China Sea from 2015 to 2022, at least 22 were related to U.S. China-related and maritime-related policy trends, mainly involving the construction of the Nansha islands and reefs, the South China Sea arbitration case, and the consultations for a “Code of Conduct for the South China Sea”.[11]

    It can be seen that the U.S. “FONOPS” have nothing to do with maintaining the safety of international waterways and the prosperity of maritime trade, as they are touted, but are akin to military activities to advance U.S. global strategy and safeguard U.S. security interests. It has nothing to do with international law, and is actually a domestic system design and practice created by the United States outside the Convention mechanism.

    The Rules-based Maritime Order as Unilateral U.S. Hegemonic Tools

    The U.S. has repeatedly explained the historical and practical roots of its unwavering defense of freedom of navigation, and in fact this logic has been very clearly shown to the world: the U.S. national interests depend on a liberal international order, and therefore it will spare no effort to promote this international order, including the so-called freedom of navigation. The United States sees this as a common interest of the world, seeking to establish and maintain a “rules-based maritime order” with like-minded countries.

    The United States seems particularly puzzled that such a wonderful idea could be questioned, since it has never cared about or even deliberately ignored the interests and views of other countries. In fact, the negotiation process at UNCLOS III has made it clear that absolute freedom of the seas will provide a wide space for maritime powers to realize their interests, while other nations will face national security threats. It is difficult to imagine how a country can have the confidence to designate archipelagic sea lanes in an open posture when it does not have the ability to sense the passage of nuclear submarines through its archipelagic waters, or how a country can have the confidence to minimize restrictions on the navigation of warships of other countries in an open posture when it does not have sufficient defense capabilities.

    When differences arise, the United States does not tend to seek a lasting and peaceful solution through bilateral or multilateral channels with the countries concerned on the basis of sovereign equality and mutual understanding, but withdraws from international mechanisms when it believes that its national interests cannot be fully reflected, and to defend its national interests in a unilateralist manner with its power. The “FON program” is a perfect example: it is based on a unilateral U.S. interpretation of the international law of the sea, and through this unilateralist act, it prevents the formation of international law that is not favorable to U.S. interests, imposes its claims and positions on other countries, and promotes a “rules-based maritime order” that prioritizes U.S. interests.

    The international order should not be based solely on the national interests of any single country, or following the standards of a few countries, but rather on the common interests of all countries. The international order based on international law provides a strong mechanism for safeguarding the common interests of all countries. Only by adhering to the multilateralism mechanism with the United Nations as the core, and the rules of international law, can we truly maintain lasting peace, prosperity and stability of the world. If the U.S. “FON” and “rules-based maritime order” have similar connotations, or if it really wants its position to be understood and accepted, it should seriously consider the positions and concerns of other countries on the right of navigation on an equal footing, and solve problems through bilateral and multilateral arrangements, instead of demanding other States to act according to its standards and interpretations in an imperious tone.

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    Text:
    Despite being used to it, I remain absolutely gobsmacked at the lies coming from the American government.

    Anyone who pays even remote attention to the subject can see U.S. policy on China and Taiwan has changed dramatically.

    For one the core of the policy towards Taiwan was strategic ambiguity, meaning the US not saying if it would defend Taiwan, or not, in case of conflict. Biden has now said at 4 different occasions that the US would.

    Another key aspect of US policy towards Taiwan was the absence of American soldiers on the ground. They left when the US recognized the PRC as the sole legitimate government of China in 1978, 45 years ago and... came back this year when 200 US military trainers were officially announced.

    Or yet another key aspect of the policy was the absence of official relations between Taiwan and the US... policy shattered by Pelosi's visit to the Island in her official capacity as Speaker of the House.

    I could go on and on: the unprecedented arm sales to Taiwan, the constant flow of US warships in the Taiwan strait, etc.

    So why lie? For a very simple reason. So that when war arises, just like the Ukraine war, the US can claim it was "totally unprovoked"...
    https://politico.com/news/2023/06/04...livan-00100100


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