U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb.

Antaletriangle · 02-13-2009, 11:01 AM

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...C3478184.story

In a reversal since a 2007 report, U.S. officials expect the Islamic Republic to reach development milestones this year.
By Greg Miller
February 12, 2009
Reporting from Washington -- Little more than a year after U.S. spy agencies concluded that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapon, the Obama administration has made it clear that it believes there is no question that Tehran is seeking the bomb.

In his news conference this week, President Obama went so far as to describe Iran's "development of a nuclear weapon" before correcting himself to refer to its "pursuit" of weapons capability.

Obama's nominee to serve as CIA director, Leon E. Panetta, left little doubt about his view last week when he testified on Capitol Hill. "From all the information I've seen," Panetta said, "I think there is no question that they are seeking that capability."

The language reflects the extent to which senior U.S. officials now discount a National Intelligence Estimate issued in November 2007 that was instrumental in derailing U.S. and European efforts to pressure Iran to shut down its nuclear program.

As the administration moves toward talks with Iran, Obama appears to be sending a signal that the United States will not be drawn into a debate over Iran's intent.

"When you're talking about negotiations in Iran, it is dangerous to appear weak or naive," said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear weapons expert and president of the Ploughshares Fund, an anti-proliferation organization based in Washington.

Cirincione said the unequivocal language also worked to Obama's political advantage. "It guards against criticism from the right that the administration is underestimating Iran," he said.

Iran has long maintained that it aims to generate electricity, not build bombs, with nuclear power. But Western intelligence officials and nuclear experts increasingly view those claims as implausible.

U.S. officials said that although no new evidence had surfaced to undercut the findings of the 2007 estimate, there was growing consensus that it provided a misleading picture and that the country was poised to reach crucial bomb-making milestones this year.

Obama's top intelligence official, Dennis C. Blair, the director of national intelligence, is expected to address mounting concerns over Iran's nuclear program in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee today.

When it was issued, the NIE stunned the international community. It declared that U.S. spy agencies judged "with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program."

U.S. intelligence officials later said the conclusion was based on evidence that Iran had stopped secret efforts to design a nuclear warhead around the time of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Often overlooked in the NIE, officials said, was that Iran had not stopped its work on other crucial fronts, including missile design and uranium enrichment. Many experts contend that these are more difficult than building a bomb.

Iran's advances on enrichment have become a growing source of alarm. Since 2004, the country has gone from operating a few dozen centrifuges -- cylindrical machines used to enrich uranium -- to nearly 6,000, weapons experts agree.

By November, Iran had produced an estimated 1,400 pounds of low-enriched uranium, not nearly enough to fuel a nuclear energy reactor, but perilously close to the quantity needed to make a bomb.

A report issued last month by the Institute for Science and International Security concluded that "Iran is moving steadily toward a breakout capability and is expected to reach that milestone during the first half of 2009." That means it would have enough low-enriched uranium to be able to quickly convert it to weapons-grade material.

Tehran's progress has come despite CIA efforts to sabotage shipments of centrifuge components on their way into Iran and entice the country's nuclear scientists to leave.

Iran still faces considerable hurdles. The country touted its launch of a 60-pound satellite into orbit this month. Experts said Iran's rockets would need to be able to carry more than 2,000 pounds to deliver a first-generation nuclear bomb.

And there are indications that the U.S. and Iran are interested in holding serious diplomatic discussions for the first time in three decades. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said this week that his nation was "ready to hold talks based on mutual respect," and Obama indicated that his administration would look for opportunities "in the coming months."

Hassan Qashqavi, spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, on Wednesday warned the U.S. not to wait for Iranian presidential elections this year, because ultimate authority rests with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

He also said Iran would be patient.

"Since a new administration came to power in the U.S., we do not want to burn the opportunity of President Obama and give him time to change the reality on the ground," Qashqavi said.

But experts said Iran was now close enough to nuclear weapons capability that it may be less susceptible to international pressure.

"They've made more progress in the last five years than in the previous 10," Cirincione said.

greg.miller@latimes.com

02-13-2009, 11:10 AM

Sounds like the new administration has started beating those tired old war drums already. We already know the story; "rogue Middle-Eastern nation developing WMDs, the West threatened," but now we have a whole new bunch of actors to entertain us.

I hate repeats.

Antaletriangle · 02-13-2009, 11:11 AM

Mercuriel · 02-13-2009, 11:25 AM

Quote:

"When you're talking about negotiations in Iran, it is dangerous to appear weak or naive," said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear weapons expert and president of the Ploughshares Fund, an anti-proliferation organization based in Washington.

My question is - How in God's Great Creation can You appear Weak or Naive when You're the One Holding already made Nukes...

Yeah - Theres Word Magic all over this and Their stance IMO...

Myra · 02-14-2009, 03:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mercuriel

My question is - How in God's Great Creation can You appear Weak or Naive when You're the One Holding already made Nukes...

Hahaha

as in Zionist Israel (the US supposed Ally

) who is the culprit goading and pushing and bullying the attack on Iran?

The US Gov better learn quick from the USS Liberty incident....

Humble Janitor · 02-14-2009, 05:10 AM

They should have learned from the death of Rachel Corrie as well. I don't buy Israel's side of the story on that.

06-08-2009, 08:02 AM

After Obama's Cairo speech -

Clinton Threatens to Attack Iran ‘The Way That We Did’ Iraq
Secretary of State Says US or "Some Other Enemy" May Launch First Strike Against Iran - by Jason Ditz, June 07, 2009
http://news.antiwar.com/2009/06/07/c...t-we-did-iraq/

Citing the disastrous 2003 US invasion of Iraq as an example, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton today warned that by continuing to refuse to abandon its civilian nuclear program, Iran was risking the possibility of an invasion by the US or “some other enemy that would do that to them.”

The comments came during an interview [transcript here] on ABC’s “This Week” program, and when asked by interviewer and former Clinton-era official George Stephanopoulus, Secretary Clinton reiterated “that’s right, as a first strike”...

06-08-2009, 08:07 AM

Meanwhile in Iran ...

In Iran, disparate, powerful forces ally against Ahmadinejad
Once rivals, reformists and conservatives among Iran's elite have formed a formidable front with the aim of ousting the president at the polls.
By Borzou Daragahi - June 7, 2009
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/t...times0202.html

Reporting from Tehran — Powerful reformists and conservatives within Iran's elite have joined forces to wage an unprecedented behind-the-scenes campaign to unseat President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, worried that he is driving the country to the brink of collapse with populist economic policies and a confrontational stance toward the West.

The prominent figures have put their considerable efforts behind the candidacy of reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who they believe has the best chance of defeating the hard-line Ahmadinejad in the presidential election Friday and charting a new course for the country...

Humble Janitor · 06-08-2009, 08:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by no caste

Meanwhile in Iran ...

In Iran, disparate, powerful forces ally against Ahmadinejad
Once rivals, reformists and conservatives among Iran's elite have formed a formidable front with the aim of ousting the president at the polls.
By Borzou Daragahi - June 7, 2009
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/t...times0202.html

Reporting from Tehran — Powerful reformists and conservatives within Iran's elite have joined forces to wage an unprecedented behind-the-scenes campaign to unseat President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, worried that he is driving the country to the brink of collapse with populist economic policies and a confrontational stance toward the West.

The prominent figures have put their considerable efforts behind the candidacy of reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who they believe has the best chance of defeating the hard-line Ahmadinejad in the presidential election Friday and charting a new course for the country...

I'm hopeful because the election of Mousavi may put a temporary halt to Iran's nuclear ambitions. If I make something happen by putting my mind to it, I'd bet on this.

06-08-2009, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Humble Janitor

I'm hopeful because the election of Mousavi may put a temporary halt to Iran's nuclear ambitions. If I make something happen by putting my mind to it, I'd bet on this.

Yeah, the elite thing doesn't sound super-appealing now that I think about it (with the clerics!), but Ahmadinejad is not a diplomat either. Things just ought to move in that direction.

I wonder what will come out of this:

Netanyahu Plans Major Policy Speech Next Week
Israel's Netanyahu to lay out peace principles next week in response to Obama speech

MATTI FRIEDMAN
AP News - Jun 07, 2009 09:59 EST
http://wire.antiwar.com/2009/06/07/n...h-next-week-4/

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he will deliver a major policy address next week laying out his proposed road to Mideast peace, after coming under stiff U.S. pressure to freeze West Bank settlement construction and endorse Palestinian statehood.

Netanyahu offered no hint of what he might say. Bound by his hardline coalition and his own ideology, the Israeli leader has resisted the U.S. demands so far, deepening an unusually public faceoff with Israel's most important ally...

NeoEmc2 · 06-08-2009, 03:43 PM

THE SKY IS FALLING!

02-13-2009, 11:01 AM	#1
Antaletriangle Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: U.K. Posts: 3,380	U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...C3478184.story In a reversal since a 2007 report, U.S. officials expect the Islamic Republic to reach development milestones this year. By Greg Miller February 12, 2009 Reporting from Washington -- Little more than a year after U.S. spy agencies concluded that Iran had halted work on a nuclear weapon, the Obama administration has made it clear that it believes there is no question that Tehran is seeking the bomb. In his news conference this week, President Obama went so far as to describe Iran's "development of a nuclear weapon" before correcting himself to refer to its "pursuit" of weapons capability. Obama's nominee to serve as CIA director, Leon E. Panetta, left little doubt about his view last week when he testified on Capitol Hill. "From all the information I've seen," Panetta said, "I think there is no question that they are seeking that capability." The language reflects the extent to which senior U.S. officials now discount a National Intelligence Estimate issued in November 2007 that was instrumental in derailing U.S. and European efforts to pressure Iran to shut down its nuclear program. As the administration moves toward talks with Iran, Obama appears to be sending a signal that the United States will not be drawn into a debate over Iran's intent. "When you're talking about negotiations in Iran, it is dangerous to appear weak or naive," said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear weapons expert and president of the Ploughshares Fund, an anti-proliferation organization based in Washington. Cirincione said the unequivocal language also worked to Obama's political advantage. "It guards against criticism from the right that the administration is underestimating Iran," he said. Iran has long maintained that it aims to generate electricity, not build bombs, with nuclear power. But Western intelligence officials and nuclear experts increasingly view those claims as implausible. U.S. officials said that although no new evidence had surfaced to undercut the findings of the 2007 estimate, there was growing consensus that it provided a misleading picture and that the country was poised to reach crucial bomb-making milestones this year. Obama's top intelligence official, Dennis C. Blair, the director of national intelligence, is expected to address mounting concerns over Iran's nuclear program in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee today. When it was issued, the NIE stunned the international community. It declared that U.S. spy agencies judged "with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." U.S. intelligence officials later said the conclusion was based on evidence that Iran had stopped secret efforts to design a nuclear warhead around the time of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Often overlooked in the NIE, officials said, was that Iran had not stopped its work on other crucial fronts, including missile design and uranium enrichment. Many experts contend that these are more difficult than building a bomb. Iran's advances on enrichment have become a growing source of alarm. Since 2004, the country has gone from operating a few dozen centrifuges -- cylindrical machines used to enrich uranium -- to nearly 6,000, weapons experts agree. By November, Iran had produced an estimated 1,400 pounds of low-enriched uranium, not nearly enough to fuel a nuclear energy reactor, but perilously close to the quantity needed to make a bomb. A report issued last month by the Institute for Science and International Security concluded that "Iran is moving steadily toward a breakout capability and is expected to reach that milestone during the first half of 2009." That means it would have enough low-enriched uranium to be able to quickly convert it to weapons-grade material. Tehran's progress has come despite CIA efforts to sabotage shipments of centrifuge components on their way into Iran and entice the country's nuclear scientists to leave. Iran still faces considerable hurdles. The country touted its launch of a 60-pound satellite into orbit this month. Experts said Iran's rockets would need to be able to carry more than 2,000 pounds to deliver a first-generation nuclear bomb. And there are indications that the U.S. and Iran are interested in holding serious diplomatic discussions for the first time in three decades. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said this week that his nation was "ready to hold talks based on mutual respect," and Obama indicated that his administration would look for opportunities "in the coming months." Hassan Qashqavi, spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, on Wednesday warned the U.S. not to wait for Iranian presidential elections this year, because ultimate authority rests with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He also said Iran would be patient. "Since a new administration came to power in the U.S., we do not want to burn the opportunity of President Obama and give him time to change the reality on the ground," Qashqavi said. But experts said Iran was now close enough to nuclear weapons capability that it may be less susceptible to international pressure. "They've made more progress in the last five years than in the previous 10," Cirincione said. greg.miller@latimes.com

02-13-2009, 11:10 AM	#2
Steve_G Guest Posts: n/a	Re: U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb. Sounds like the new administration has started beating those tired old war drums already. We already know the story; "rogue Middle-Eastern nation developing WMDs, the West threatened," but now we have a whole new bunch of actors to entertain us. I hate repeats.

02-13-2009, 11:11 AM	#3
Antaletriangle Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: U.K. Posts: 3,380	Re: U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb.

02-14-2009, 05:10 AM	#6
Humble Janitor Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,201	Re: U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb. They should have learned from the death of Rachel Corrie as well. I don't buy Israel's side of the story on that.

06-08-2009, 08:02 AM	#7
no caste Guest Posts: n/a	Re: U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb. After Obama's Cairo speech - Clinton Threatens to Attack Iran ‘The Way That We Did’ Iraq Secretary of State Says US or "Some Other Enemy" May Launch First Strike Against Iran - by Jason Ditz, June 07, 2009 http://news.antiwar.com/2009/06/07/c...t-we-did-iraq/ Citing the disastrous 2003 US invasion of Iraq as an example, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton today warned that by continuing to refuse to abandon its civilian nuclear program, Iran was risking the possibility of an invasion by the US or “some other enemy that would do that to them.” The comments came during an interview [transcript here] on ABC’s “This Week” program, and when asked by interviewer and former Clinton-era official George Stephanopoulus, Secretary Clinton reiterated “that’s right, as a first strike”...

06-08-2009, 08:07 AM	#8
no caste Guest Posts: n/a	Re: U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb. Meanwhile in Iran ... In Iran, disparate, powerful forces ally against Ahmadinejad Once rivals, reformists and conservatives among Iran's elite have formed a formidable front with the aim of ousting the president at the polls. By Borzou Daragahi - June 7, 2009 http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/t...times0202.html Reporting from Tehran — Powerful reformists and conservatives within Iran's elite have joined forces to wage an unprecedented behind-the-scenes campaign to unseat President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, worried that he is driving the country to the brink of collapse with populist economic policies and a confrontational stance toward the West. The prominent figures have put their considerable efforts behind the candidacy of reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who they believe has the best chance of defeating the hard-line Ahmadinejad in the presidential election Friday and charting a new course for the country... Last edited by no caste; 06-08-2009 at 08:15 AM.

06-08-2009, 03:43 PM	#11
NeoEmc2 Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Miami, FL Posts: 95	Re: U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb. THE SKY IS FALLING!