what can we expect next week ?

[gwynned]

Originally Posted by Vicki

http://www.unknowncountry.com/journal/

This is one man's views on what may happen - any thoughts?

Something really jumped out at me:

"Understand, I very much doubt that this gimcrack legislation that has just been passed is going to help very much for very long. The reason is that the total amount of derivatives now in the marketplace probably exceeds $500 trillion. That's right, $500 TRILLION dollars, and at present all of it is, at best, salable only at a substantial discount."

Not sure where he got this number or how the derivatives market affects the average person. According to Henry Liu (Asia Times http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_.../JG22Dj06.html)

"Today the two companies (Fannie and Freddie) also hold or guarantee loans with face value of more than $5 trillion, about half the nation's mortgages. Market analysts estimate that the market value of this liability may be less than 50% unless the housing market recovers. In other words, the GSEs face a $3.5 trillion exposure to default if they cannot raise new funds in the credit market. "

So, to me, the 500 trillion number is suspect. Using the above numbers as an estimate, the total amount of mortgages in the US is about 10 million.