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[stiffsock]

I haven't looked into Arlington Institute yet. Thanks for the post. I am going to check it out.

I know George has some elliott wave folks and astrology folks that consistently parallel half past human with similar prescient predictions.

George didn't post much on Saturday other than how his ranch faired through the storm. On Friday he had some interesting commentary on the PPI numbers.

The last line of the table should give you a hint: Producer Prices at the Crude Goods level has just driven off a cliff. OK, yeah, they've been up 38% on an unadjusted basis in the past 12-months. But this? A deflationary disaster pulls into view.



In the very short term this should be catnip for the markets. But in the long term, watch closely: Capital is being destroyed and in order to stop the spin, we're likely to head down what I call "Japan Road" - which is where the Japanese in 1989 (and shortly thereafter) had to take interest rates to zero (and beyond) in order to halt the slide. Even so, they saw the Nikkei go from over 40,000 to around 10,000.

The last table shows August PPI at -11.9% from 4.2% in July. It was -3.5% in August of last year, however. This would seem to present argument that it isn't "that bad," but as George constantly points out, these numbers do not reflect the exponential increase of the data year over year nor are the adjusted for inflation, which is running in double digits.