None of my information on PLO/Hamas is current circa 2013. Based on what I saw in UAE this last February, US sentiment was at an all time low. I had discussions with folks from Jordan and Lebanon, as well as UAE nationals. I got a cross sectional view, a pulse so to speak. Any discussions even mention of Israel were met with having spoken something that should never be discussed, met with a disdain like one could never imagine. To discuss philosophically was OK to see where mindsets were at. Historically in '87 when the "miraculous transformation happened" with Arafat, the discussion as I understand it, was to put the PLO in the background, dissolve all campaigns of terroristic activity, but leave HAMAS as the fallback just in case the maneuver towards "living together in peaceful relations" was not possible. If all failed with peace, Hamas would be the ones to carry out, "Istishhadi", or martyrdom as needed against those who block "freedom" and against the "oppressor". The definition of what and who exactly "is" the oppressor is vague.Posted by panopticon (here)
Thank you for sharing your personal insight into Arafat's widow.Posted by Bobd (here)
Pan - Suha when I met her, her whole focus was to protect the children. That was in '87. Folks obviously can change, she wasn't even married to her "boss" who was Arafat. She showed me a black and white picture of her and her boss (Arafat) prior to the peace initiative. She struck me as not under any situation wanting Intifada. I do know at that time there were peace initiative miracles happening and a lot of opportunities to work things out. Not taking any sides just saying what I observed back in '87. She is a woman of strong compassion. I think her expression in the photo above is genuine. And that is how I remember her from the early days.
I fear that what she wants has little to do with what will occur.
This is where it becomes highly unstable and dangerous. Abbas as a figurehead, by no means has the charisma as a key rallying point figure. I agree with you, he will in no way have any way to influence any positive outcome in the region. Who is left then to set policy in Gaza? Hamas is governed by 3 wings, three organizational divisions, who carry out their specialty operations - military, it's "Political Bureau", and the "General Consultative Council". Those members set the policy and supposedly carry out the will of the organization. But the military often-times operates contrary and independently to the rest of the organization. Will they use Arafat's apparently murder as a rallying point?
What it "feels like" is there is a strong block wall that is present. Listening to Al Jazeera one can see the fueling of sentiment - tension is building. The powder-keg is being fueled, but there is also a type of stability. What Suha mentioned, and I believe it has stopped absolutely insane protests, was she wants to find the perpetrators - Arafat is dead by unnatural causes be it polonium or some other substance that destroyed his GI tract. I have no idea what immediate steps would be accomplished other than maybe setup who the 3rd Intifada may be centered upon. I suspect Istishhad would be the actions to be planned, tried and used in the tested ways of the past during the time of the PLO reign - against whom is the questions. From in the past having seen the sentiments and personalities, I would guess, against whom who had produced the Polonium as that seems to be the "agent" used. And that then narrows down to who has the substance, who has the reactor. Russia does have and has used polonium in the past to target, and Russia is as you point out, one of the groups to do the "testing".
My guess is don't ignore the underlying currents that are building and keep an eye on which groups are mobilizing. The chatter is monitorable and obviously NSA and NRO have their fingers on the pulse.
The biggest problem which I have seen time and time again, is folks never forget in that region. And folks continually will bring up past actions and use them as justifications to issue Fatwah(s), carry out Intifada, while committing Istishhad. That has been the old way, continually. When the "miracle" happened with Arafat, he was willing to be in the moment, to drop the issues of the past. That is what Suha had shared with him originally, and that was the change. To be in the moment, and hold being in the moment as more important than any errors committed in the past. I don't know if there is any charismatic figure these days willing to present themselves and bring people to the moment and only stay in the moment, not concerned about a future, not worried about the atrocities of the past, but to come up with a way of living together in the now, in the moment.The prospect of a 3rd Intifada is one reason I view that Abbas is getting so much attention at the moment and why the US and Israeli governments are so focused on directing attention towards a peace process.
If she is still as you remember her I hope she has some input into how the Palestinian people express their emotions in this matter. I doubt that Abbas will be able to control Hamas or the other militant/political groups involved and the Israeli's already have their rhetoric intact. Not to forget of course that we haven't seen the Russian or French reports (which may sing from a different hymn book to the Swiss). Al Jazeera and the Palestinian Authority must have a reason they released this report and not the Russian one as we know they have copies of both.
We live in interesting time...
-- Pan
ref: Istishhad - (Arabic: استشهاد) heroism in the act of sacrifice" rather than "victimization," not "suicide".
ref: Hamas (Arabic: حماس Ḥamās, "enthusiasm", an acronym of حركة المقاومة الاسلامية Ḥarakat al-Muqāwamah al-ʾIslāmiyyah, "Islamic Resistance Movement") is the Palestinian Sunni Islamic or Islamist organization, with an associated military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, located in the Palestinian territories.
ref: Fatwā (Arabic: فتوى; plural fatāwā Arabic: فتاوى) In the Islamic faith that is the technical term for the legal judgment or learned interpretation that a qualified jurist or mufti can give on issues pertaining to the Islamic law.
ref: Mufti - (Arabic: مفتي muftī ; Turkish: müftü ) A Sunni Islamic scholar who is an interpreter or expounder of Islamic law.
ED Note: from the Israeli Times, just in:
"US Secretary of State John Kerry launched an unusually bitter public attack on Israeli policies in the West Bank Thursday 7 Nov 2013, warning that if current peace talks fail, Israel could see a third Intifada and growing international isolation, and that calls for boycott, divestment and sanctions would increase. Kerry made the comments during a joint interview with Israel’s Channel 2 and the Palestinian Broadcasting Corporation." - http://www.timesofisrael.com/kerry-w...if-talks-fail/ ...
"Israel’s Channel 2 news quoted unnamed officials in Jerusalem responding bitterly to the secretary’s remarks. Israel, said one official, would not “give in to the intimidation tactics” of the secretary, and would not compromise on its vital security needs."
That doesn't sound like things are calming down..
ref: Intifada - Intifada (انتفاضة intifāḍah) is an Arabic word which literally means "shaking off", sometimes translated to mean, a type of uprising against something.