The UK Brexit vote to leave the EU

[greybeard]

How new Brexit deal could hit UK economy, wages and public spending
Tom Belger,Yahoo Finance UK 7 hours ago


https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/ne...125826293.html

UK trade with Europe could plummet by 25% under the kind of EU free trade deal planned by Boris Johnson, according to the British government’s own figures.

New trade barriers could wipe 4.9% off long-term economic growth, leave real wages 6.4% lower and see borrowing soar by at least £72bn just to maintain spending than if Britain remained in the EU.

Analysis by Yahoo Finance UK of official forecasts released last year suggests the UK prime minister’s Brexit proposals could also leave the UK worse off than under his predecessor Theresa May’s plans.

The government is under pressure from backbench MPs to confirm the figures are a valid reflection of Johnson’s proposals, or to swiftly update them before parliament votes on Saturday.

READ MORE: MPs demand Johnson come clean on Brexit hit to the UK economy

The figures predict greater freedom in striking trade deals outside Europe, one of Johnson’s key objectives, will add just 0.1% to growth over the next 15 years.

It indicates the benefits of such trade deals are likely to be far outweighed by the damage from tougher terms of trade between Britain and Europe in years to come.
The sectors hit hardest by a Johnson-style free trade deal

The negative impact is envisaged across many sectors of the economy and every region of the UK, with the north-east expected to be hit hardest.

Manufacturing, particularly pharmaceutical and car exports, could be battered the hardest, with the sector’s ‘gross value added’ (GVA) predicted to be 8% lower than if current trade rules continued.

The agri-food industry and financial services could take a 7% hit to GVA, while the UK’s dominant services sector could contribute 5% less to national growth.

The economic harm largely reflects increased barriers to business between Britain and EU countries, such as increased paperwork, checks and costs to ensure goods or services meet EU or UK standards, customs rules.

READ MORE: ‘We’ve been here before’: UK firms give deal a cautious welcome

A key difference with former prime minister Theresa May’s plans is the likelihood of new ‘rules of origin’ checks, forcing companies to prove where products and their parts have come from to avoid extra taxes.

“Higher trade barriers between countries would be expected to raise the cost of exports and imports and incentivise a focus on the domestic market,” officials noted.

But the report still said the economy would continue to grow in the long run under any Brexit scenario including a no-deal outcome.
Government under pressure to reveal latest Brexit analysis

The figures were included in the ‘EU Exit: long-term economic analysis’ briefing published under May’s government in November last year.

They estimate what the impact would be of a “hypothetical free trade agreement (FTA),” reflecting average FTA non-tariff costs such as being outside the EU customs union, regulatory barriers and other changes.

While May’s deal with Brussels pledged “as close as possible” trade terms with the EU on goods, Johnson pledged a looser “free trade agreement.”

A leading backbench MP wrote to the UK chancellor Sajid Javid on Friday urging him to confirm whether Johnson’s deal could therefore be fairly compared to the “hypothetical FTA” outlined in the earlier Brexit assessment.

Catherine McKinnell, a Labour MP and chair of the Treasury select committee, called on officials to immediately update the assessment if the Treasury no longer stood by the analysis ahead of parliament’s crunch vote this weekend.

She said the committee had asked for an update three months ago but still received no response.
Trade-offs between EU trade and deals with other countries
US President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson hold a meeting at UN Headquarters in New York, September 24, 2019, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
US president Donald Trump and British prime minister Boris Johnson. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

Simon French, chief economist at stockbroker Panmure Gordon, said revised estimates would be unlikely to significantly change the headline figure on its negative impact on GDP, saying it would still be “in the ballpark” of 4.9%.

But he said a fresher analysis by officials would be far more useful in revealing the likely trade-offs between a closer deal with the EU and greater “wiggle room” to secure better terms with other countries.

“We were told, and it’s right, that there are advantages to changing our regulatory system and doing trade with the rest of the world. But it comes at the cost of the depth and breadth of any FTA with Europe going forward,” he said.

“Will it allow EU fishing access to our waters in return for UK drug exports, say? What are the costs and benefits of having deep [EU] alignment or a third-country relationship?”

READ MORE: Pound hovers at five-month highs ahead of key Brexit vote
Talks on an EU trade deal have not even started

French said the past few years of divorce talks had revealed “almost nothing about the end state” of Britain’s future trading relationship with the EU, which will be negotiated during a post-Brexit transition period.

He also questioned Labour, other opposition parties’ and think tank warnings of a “race to the bottom” on workers’ rights, environmental standards and consumer protection under Johnson’s plans.

The IPPR think tank had said on Thursday the deal “opens the door to a decade of deregulation,” putting high regulatory standards and the NHS at risk in trade talks with US president Donald Trump’s administration.

But French said: “This deal provides the chance to take a different stance, but it doesn’t mean they will.”

He noted the EU could still insist on Britain accepting EU standards at a later date in exchange for a closer relationship.

A government spokesman said: “We will negotiate a comprehensive and ambitious FTA with the EU, which will be good for our economy and businesses.

“This stage of the negotiations has focussed on the withdrawal agreement rather than the future trade deal, the specific nature of which will be subject to the outcome of the next phase of negotiation.

“We will keep parliament updated throughout the negotiations, including providing analysis at appropriate times.”

[greybeard]

Its still a mess and who is to be believed?
Still Boris got this far so you never know.
Ch

[Matthew]

Jeff Taylor with his news 13 days till Brexit day

I'm board of doing this countdown, I'd rather be making quirky music. But dammit, there aren't very many days left

Anti Brexit Campaigners lose two court cases!

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=YwTCjBHgB90

Jeff is a little more peripheral than he typically is. Mayhar Tousi gives his more rounded report on YouTube : EU Reject Extension As Brexit Party Split Over Boris’ Deal

Anyone having difficulty with the political intensity, such as myself and nobody else on the thread, try this Brexit Stress Remedy... enjoy!

[scanner]

The quickening.

[greybeard]

Brexit stress YoYoYo
Dear friend no need to feel any stress.
The outlook you have on this is valid and the out come will be as it is, we cant change that--so no need to take any of it onboard--life will go on regardless.
Its a divorce for "better or worse".
Its all gone on far too long though.

Chris

[Matthew]

You might choose to 'rise above it all' by not having an opinion either way greybeard, but in these critical few days, for anyone who chooses to care, it's on the edge of their seat. I'm hardly alone, and it's nice to joke about the tension. After all, lets not forget the Supreme court is being political, blocking democratic will, and most MPs blocked calls for general elections. Not surprising since they were going hell for leather against the direct democratic will of the people. Exciting times, you can not deny

[greybeard]

Boris Johnson defeated as MPs vote to delay Brexit
Yahoo News UK George Martin,Yahoo News UK 1 hour 20 minutes ago

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/mps-reject...135041450.html

Boris Johnson has suffered a significant defeat in the House of Commons vote after MPs voted to force him to seek a Brexit extension.

MPs voted by 322 to 306 in favour of an amendment brought by former Cabinet minister Sir Oliver Letwin, which withholds Parliament’s approval for the PM’s deal until legislation to implement it is in place.

In practice the amendment means the PM is now obliged by law to ask the EU for a delay to the Brexit deadline.

However, there is still a possibility - albeit a remote one - that the UK could still leave under the terms of Mr Johnson’s deal by Halloween.

MPs are likely to vote next week on the new Brexit deal instead of holding the crunch vote that had been expected to happen on Saturday evening.

Commons Leader Jacob Rees Mogg said the Government is planning to give MPs a chance to have a meaningful vote on Monday.

But he was accused of an “outrageous stunt” after tabling the same motion that had just been pulled.
General view of the House of Commons as parliament discusses Brexit, sitting on a Saturday for the first time since the 1982 Falklands War, in London, Britain, October 19, 2019, in this screen grab taken from video. Parliament TV via REUTERS
MPs passed the Letwin amendment in a crucial vote on Saturday. (Reuters)

Mr Johnson told the Commons he was not “daunted” by the result,

“I will not negotiate a delay with the EU and neither does the law compel me to do so.

He added: “Further delay would be bad for this country, bad for our EU and bad for democracy. So next week the Government will introduce the legislation needed for us to leave the EU with our new deal on October 31st and I hope that our EU colleagues and friends will not be attracted as the benches opposite are, or rather I should say the front bench, by delay.”

It is unclear how Mr Johnson intends to refuse to negotiate an extension without breaking the law.

[greybeard]

YoYoYo
I dont mind what the end result is--that does not mean I dont care.
One way or another people are suffering at the moment and will continue to suffer no matter which way it goes--such is life--that does not mean I condone suffering--I wish it was not so but it is.

Chris

[Matthew]

Carl Benjamin expresses the sentiment of the moment better than anyone else I'm following on YouTube

Boris is Forced to Send the Letter

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=BZTpn5hftzs

[greybeard]

The big flaw in Carl's video is that in fact the person who tabled the amendment leading to delay, is for Brexit--He has vote to leave three times already for the May agreement and has promised to vote for the Boris deal.
He is not a remain er as said by Carl.
He was interviewed on the Andrew Marr program this morning and was ultra clear as to his reasons and his on going support of the deal.
.
The only reason for the amendment, as stated by him, Sir Oliver Letwin, was to prevent crashing out by accident.
Nobody wants that surely!!!

Oliver Letwin Explains Why He Tabled His Brexit Amendment

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=ouLXbm7dJLE

Chris

[Matthew]

Mays deal was a remainers deal, handing over slightly more than Boris'. The problem is as Carl said, that we should be in a good negotiating position but this has been sabotaged because otherwise we may become a major competitor

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by greybeard (here)
One way or another people are suffering at the moment and will continue to suffer no matter which way it goes

I'd suggest we should all beware of Problem—Reaction—Solution.

In this case,

1. The government (UK or EU!) creates a problem.
2. The people are suffering, or seem to be, or say they are.
3. The government (UK or EU!) says: "Don't worry, trust us, we have the solution for you."

That's how come lobsters end up in the baited lobster pot. (In my strong personal opinion, the lobster pot = the EU.)

[greybeard]

I suspect getting in to the EU in the first place was a mistake, our economy would probably have been a lot stronger.
Getting out not the easy ride promised.

Chris

[Matthew]

No losers consent made this difficult, and remainers blocking general elections when Boris called for them. Shame.... the MPs are there to represent the people, and we know what they were scared of with a general election. Notice they have been trying for a second referendum with only their options on, instead of a general election


But anyway, here's Mahyar Tousi with his round up:

Boris Refused To Sign Brexit Extension Letter

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=JtMT_XxUamc

[happyuk]

Posted by YoYoYo (here)
No losers consent made this difficult, and remainers blocking general elections when Boris called for them. Shame.... the MPs are there to represent the people, and we know what they were scared of with a general election. Notice they have been trying for a second referendum with only their options on, instead of a general election


But anyway, here's Mahyar Tousi with his round up:

Boris Refused To Sign Brexit Extension Letter

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=JtMT_XxUamc

My gut instinct is Boris’s new deal will end up being Theresa May’s Withdrawal Bill with added subterfuge around the Irish backstop.

The EU will never give an inch (sorry centimetre!) because they want to see the UK reduced to the status of little more than a colony. Brussels won’t negotiate a trade deal unless they can control our laws, precisely the petty-minded intransigence 17.4 million Brits voted against.

I reckon we’ve been goosed and Boris’s antics are just smoke and mirrors. I have always had reservations about his sincerity. Inevitably our safe, utterly predictable middle class "satirists" are happily siding with senior judges, Remainer Lords, multinational corporations etc – traditionally known as the ruling class. You never hear that Germany is teetering on the edge of a recession on The Mash Report or the BBC TV News; nor have I seen the EU’s high unemployment and economic under-performance mentioned even in passing.

[Matthew]

Here's a summary of the revised deal I was linked to:

https://www.brugesgroup.com/blog/the...-briefing-note

The Revised Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration: a briefing note

The Revised Political Declaration

Introduction

So far as we are aware the only material changes in the Withdrawal Agreement (Treaty) are to the NI Protocol, which means that the critical ECJ oversight and Art 184 link to the Political Declaration remain. I am told by UKREP that there are two changes to other Articles in the Treaty but they were unable to tell us which ones.

Executive Summary

The Treaty permanently restricts our military independence, demands payment of an unspecified sum, prevents independent arbitration, grants EU officials immunity from UK laws, leaves us with EIB contingent liabilities running into tens if not hundreds of billions and will impose punitive laws on the UK during a transition which is likely to be extended until mid 2022 (just a few months before the next General Election).

The Political Declaration is such that a future FTA with the EU is made unpalatable because it will restrict our foreign policy and military independence as well as policies in trade, tax, fishing, environment, social and employment, competition and state aid. Free movement is replaced with vague notions of "mobility" and "non discrimination".

Specific Provisions in which the Withdrawal Treaty:-

1.Restricts Parliamentary independence

Just as before, the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ) governs the entire Treaty and EU law takes precedence - binding future British Parliaments and requiring judges to overturn laws passed by the British Parliament if the ECJ considers them to be inconsistent with obligations in the Treaty. (Articles 4, 87, 89 and 127).

...

***UPDATE***
News just in, Nigel Farage Talk of the Week #4 - Mrs May's Deal Reheated is Not Brexit, Boris
Published 30 mins ago

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=whbMD1p7-KU

***UPDATE UPDATE***
I Interrupt this update to bring you an update
Mahyar Tousi sort of defends the deal, but he says he is not making excuses for it

He is currently live, here is a YouTube link

[greybeard]

YoYoYo from what you have printed and my limited understanding it seems we are better off sticking with the current relationship-the new deal seems more interference possible than currently available to EU.
I may of course have completely misunderstood your last post.
Chris

[Matthew]

It can yet be deal/no deal or a 'dead in a ditch' extension as far as I can tell. Just more pieces being played

[AutumnW]

What do you think the monarchy most prefers? Do they care either way?

[greybeard]

Dont think the monarchy would approve of something that would lead to the Scotland leaving the UK but the SNP would wish the Queen to remain as Queen of Scotland as far as I remember.
Overall I suspect the monarchy is realistic and just accepts what it can do nothing about.