WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

[9ideon]

Posted by XelNaga (here)

Posted by Goba (here)
Russia is losing. I mean in a greater sense it has already lost but in a military sense - it will also loose. No amount of morally corrupt support for the aggressor will change that. It so funny to see how people who are posed against american wars of aggression then think if someone else starts to kill and maim its for the good.

Why will Ukraine win (in all likelihood - nobody can be sure right now) you can read here:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-st...usso-ukrainian

Dear Goba,

I see that western propaganda brainwashing got you really good. So sad.

Don't bother, from some Indian Soros Chicken Farm.

[9ideon]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=E8pFK8ySpw0

[Tintin]

Posted by pounamuknight (here)
Cheers for the Professor Timothy Snyder article, Goba. It was entertaining

Snyder is one of those mainstream punters that calls Russia a dictatorship. He has about as much insight as a CNN tweet, on which he's a frequent mouthpiece about all things imperial

Oh yeah, the guy's also a sitting member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Attachment 49387

CIA stamp of approval

He certainly is, along with quite a few others.

The screenshot above may be what a smartphone user sees when accessing the CFR site here: https://www.cfr.org/membership/roster

The 25 page pdf of the sitting membership which includes Snyder (page 21) can be viewed and downloaded from here: https://www.cfr.org/sites/default/fi...p%20Roster.pdf

[Tintin]

Eva Bartlett's in-depth write-up following her coverage of the Yelenovka atrocity:

Link: https://ingaza.wordpress.com/2022/08...ainian-attack/

Who killed the POWs at Yelenovka? All signs on the ground point to a Ukrainian attack by Eva K Bartlett



There is every reason to believe that the July 29 bombing of a detention center holding Ukrainian POWs was carried out on Kiev’s orders

Aug 2, 2022, RT.com

It was extremely difficult to witness the charred and twisted remains of Ukrainian POWs in the Yelenovka detention center at first hand. The stench of death was overwhelming. Bodies remained in the ruins and melted into the metal bunk beds they were on at the time of the bombing.

Other corpses, presumably killed by shrapnel instead of burning to death, lay outside. A soldier was inspecting them, presumably in order to determine the exact cause, and the victims’ identities. Even if the Ukrainian side killed its own soldiers, it was the Russians who took care to identify the remains.

I shared some of the gruesome photos and my thoughts on Twitter immediately after getting back from Yelenovka.

The next morning, I went around Donetsk to document the extremely dangerous “petal” mines Ukraine has dropped on the city. According to DPR Emergency Services, eight civilians had been killed by these mines just the day before. If you step on one of these tiny-but powerful-explosives, chances it will merely tear off a leg instead of outright killing you. And they are insidiously toy-like in appearance, likely to attract children’s attention.

Who benefits from the war crime at Yelenovka?

Ukraine and Western media, as would be expected, blame Russia for the bombing of Yelenovka detention center, which killed 53 people. Russia and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), in turn, point the finger at Kiev.

In addition to those killed, the 2am bombing, which DPR officials say was carried out using American-supplied HIMARS, injured at least eight employees and over 70 POWs held there. The prisoners were captured Ukrainian combatants, mainly members of the Azov neo-Nazi militia who’d surrendered in Mariupol in May.







If HIMARS, or High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System, were indeed the source of the destruction and death, then it is almost certain it was Ukraine who bombed the prison, given that Kiev had the coordinates and is the only side in the conflict that possesses such weapons. Even the Pentagon admits it is possible, albeit characterizing the strike as “unintentional.”

From a logical perspective, Russia had no motivation to bomb the prison. For Ukraine, on the other hand, these POWs represented a liability, in that they could testify to the alleged war crimes they committed against Donbass civilians.

Ukraine has made a litany of claims meant to incriminate Russia throughout the current conflict – the Bucha massacre, the strike on the Mariupol maternity hospital, the Ghost of Kiev hoax, the supposed mass graves of civilians, the outlandish false allegations of Russian soldiers committing sexual crimes, which even saw the former Ukrainian Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights fired by Kiev’s own parliament.

Russia has invited the UN and the International Red Cross to investigate the Yelenovka prison bombing. Meanwhile, observers online have used the publicly available data to put together a picture of what occurred. Here’s an insightful analysis from the Rybar Telegram channel (with more than 627,000 followers), specializing in military analytics:

“The eastern part of the building suffered the most damage, where a powerful fire and explosion occurred, which blew out the windows.” Judging by the angle of impact, the analyst concludes that “the shooting was carried out from the trajectory of Marinka-Kurakhovo –the Sergeevka triangle– Pokrovsk-Udachnoe.” This is Ukrainian-controlled territory. The analysis could not conclude whether HIMARS was used, from the information at hand.

Along the ‘who benefits?’ line of thinking, a number of circumstances also point to Kiev. These have also been pointed out by Russian observers and compiled into a chronology. The captured Azov Nazis were taken to the Yelenovka detention center in late May.

While prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia have included Azov fighters, there is a strong opposition to handing them back over to Kiev, meaning that there’s no guarantee that they would be exchanged in the future – potentially making them a liability to Kiev. By June 20 reports of Ukraine shelling the prison already appeared on Russian channels watching the conflict. On July 28 the confession of an Azov member emerged, claiming that neo-Nazis in Kharkov and Kiev had direct orders from Zelensky’s office to torture and murder Russian prisoners of war. Late that night/early next morning, Ukraine struck the very detention center holding the Azov member who confessed, as well as others who might have done so.

Elsewhere, other neo-Nazis in captivity have confessed to deliberately murdering civilians, a PR disaster for Ukraine, made worse were the prisoners in Yelenovka to follow suit.

Last but not least, just two days before the Yelenovka strike, the US Senate passed a resolution urging the State Department to recognize Russia as a “sponsor of terrorism.” By perpetrating an attack and blaming it on Moscow, Kiev could be aiming to push that decision through – even though the State Department is reportedly reluctant.

Given Ukraine’s multiple attempts to incriminate Russia, and eight years of bombing Donbass civilians, killing their own soldiers is not too far-fetched. In fact, surrendered Ukrainian soldiers have claimed their commanders threatened to shoot them if they attempted desertion, and indeed Ukrainian nationalists firing on them when they attempted to surrender, in one case killing or wounding dozens .

It is left to Russian and DPR doctors to preserve the lives of Ukrainian POWs – even those apparently injured by friendly fire. Outside a Donetsk hospital after the Yelenovka bombing, one of the doctors working on wounded Ukrainians said that five had already had successful surgery for their shrapnel wounds, and two more were to undergo operations.

“It doesn’t matter which side you’re on, we will help you,” he said.



The ghastly scenes of charred flesh and shrapnel-studded bodies I saw at the prison will remain etched in my mind for a long time. Yes, war is ugly, but Ukraine is upping the ante when it comes to both war crimes and hypocrisy.

[Tintin]

"Bartlett is recording what must be seen if the US/UK-generated perpetual war is ever to come to an end. She is risking her life to provide the horrific insights into these wars and the crimes committed by those who violate the Geneva Convention with impunity because they are protected by NATO member states and are carrying out their orders.

Mensch is not only enabling these crimes and effectively the mutilation of civilians, she is calling for the hunting down of Bartlett by the SSO headquartered in Kyiv. The SSO duties include direct action, special reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, sabotage, psychological warfare. (Wikipedia)".

- Vanessa Beeley

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Twitter facilitates cyber terrorism and NATO-proxy war crimes in Ukraine
Twitter allows blogger to doxx independent journalist on the ground in war zone

Source: https://beeley.substack.com/p/twitte...yber-terrorism

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Highlights from the article:

‘In 2005, Ukraine ratified the Ottawa Convention, which prohibits the use, stockpiling and production of anti-personnel mines. Thus, Kyiv violates its international obligations.’

These Lepestok cluster mines are banned under international humanitarian law and their use is deemed a war crime under the Geneva Convention.

Mensch chose to trigger the greatest threat to Bartlett’s life and Twitter chose to facilitate this terrorism linked to Nazism and Ultra-nationalism in Ukraine. I take this personally, not only because of my long time friendship with Eva but because the media sphere is rapidly becoming a very dangerous one for any independent journalist who is putting their lives on the line to report in high risk, high profile war zones.

Soon the greatest risk will not be from the falling missiles or sniper bullets but from the concerted efforts of the NATO ‘disinformation’ clusters and their associated intelligence and military agencies who will carry out disappearances and assassinations at the behest of their line managers in the respective state departments and foreign offices.

[Tintin]

Maria Zakharova press briefing, August 2nd, 2022. I've added occasional emphases:

Link: https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1824782/#4

On the situation in Donbass and Ukraine


First of all, I would like to welcome the beginning of the implementation of the results achieved on July 22 of this year. in Istanbul " food arrangements ". On August 1 this year, the first ship (loaded with corn) under the flag of Sierra Leone left the port of Odessa , which headed for Lebanon. We expect that Kyiv will fulfill its obligations to ensure the safety of ships in the Black Sea ports and territorial waters of Ukraine. At the same time, for a full-fledged solution to the food problem, it is necessary that the Western countries provide conditions for access to the world markets of Russian fertilizers and food, that is, remove the financial and logistical obstacles caused by the anti-Russian restrictions they have introduced.

This is exactly what is publicly and loudly demanded, for example, by the countries of Africa, which are so "cared for" in the West (primarily in Washington). Africans say that Western countries are creating the food problem with their own hands by blocking payments, transport logistics, and then telling stories that the world is in danger of starvation.

One gets the impression that the “Western mainstream” media have already become so far removed from normal objective work, having become a propaganda tool for liberal regimes, that these same regimes no longer receive reliable information from other regions of the world about what is happening in the international arena. In the West, apparently, they do not hear (they do not show on TV) what leaders and professionals say about the food problem in African countries. They perfectly understand who is behind the aggravation of the situation.

The elimination of financial and logistical obstacles is provided for by the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Federation and the UN Secretariat on promoting the promotion of Russian food products and fertilizers to world markets. The agreements reached in Istanbul are of a package nature. This term is used by the UN Secretary General A. Guterres. In this regard, we warn against attempts to “wind up” or not complete the second part of the package. Otherwise, due to the irresponsible policy of the West, the world may not receive tens of millions of tons of Russian grain. No matter how hard the "Western mainstream" media tries, in the food recipient countries they understand who is behind the creation of obstacles to the delivery of food.

Meanwhile, a special military operation continues in Ukraine . Despite the support of the Kyiv regime by Western countries, we are consistently achieving its goals and objectives aimed at protecting the civilian population of the DPR and LPR, the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and the elimination of threats to Russia's security.

Peaceful life is already being established in the liberated Luhansk and Kherson regions and the territories of the DPR, Kharkov and Zaporozhye regions recaptured from neo-Nazis, industry, agriculture, and social infrastructure are starting to work. A master plan has been developed for the complete restoration of Mariupol over the next three years. This year, work will be carried out at 90 social facilities.

The activities of law enforcement and judicial bodies do not stop - those guilty of committing crimes against the civilian population of Donbass will be punished to the fullest extent of the law, and not by primitive cave methods, which do not deliver justice (not even lynching), but an outburst of hatred and aggression in the territories controlled by the Kyiv regime. You have seen terrible footage of people being tied to poles, doused with some kind of chemicals, beaten (including women, old people and children) simply because it seemed to someone that they were “not loyally committed” to the Kyiv regime. No provocations by Kyiv can interfere with the normalization of life in these territories.

Four days ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine committed another war crime by launching a missile strike from the American HIMARS multiple launch rocket system at the pre- trial detention center in Yelenovka . The missile hit the building where the militants of the Azov gang were kept, who surrendered in May of this year. at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol.

Why did the Kyiv regime strike at the pre-trial detention center where Ukrainian prisoners of war were kept? Because they began to testify, talk about their atrocities against the civilian population of Donbass, began to reveal facts (with numbers, dates, geographic reference).

These prisoners of war now threaten the regime of V.A. Zelensky by becoming living witnesses of crimes. What the last four or five months have been shouting from Kyiv, Western "partners", the liberal public all over the world: "What kind of Nazis are there", "there is no one there", "no crimes motivated by xenophobia have ever been committed."

Now, the militants withdrawn from Azovstal have provided evidence of what they were doing (not independently, but as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Such dangerous, from the point of view of the Kyiv regime, witnesses were to be destroyed. Therefore, they simply pressed the "start" button and fired a shot from American weapons at their own informational tips. Everything is so cynical and simple, but at the same time it is absolutely in the style of Western philosophy - to destroy those who only yesterday served faithfully, swore allegiance, carried out criminal orders, believing that they are correct and in line with the national interests of Ukraine.

Was it different in other parts of the world? Consider the Middle East. All American proteges sooner or later were either betrayed by Washington or destroyed. W. bin Laden was raised in the West, received education and support. Newspapers wrote about him, saying that he was a man who had chosen the path of democracy. Then he became an enemy and was destroyed to the applause of Washington. In the same way, the United States is dealing with everyone who was previously made "guides" of its will. Meanness and hypocrisy are the essence of the current Western mentality.

As a result of the strike on the pre-trial detention center, more than 50 of the surrendered members of the gangs who left Azovstal were killed. It is obvious that the Ukrainian authorities and their Western curators were afraid that the “Azovites” would reveal the truth, terrible, from the point of view of public opinion, for the regime of V.A. Western weapons. The militants began to give detailed testimonies about the "technological process": how they were recruited, where they trained, what goals they set, what weapons they supplied, who gave orders. As soon as the “guys” opened their mouths, the Kyiv regime closed it to them, despite the fact that they were militants who swore allegiance to Kyiv. The height of cynicism was that, despite irrefutable evidence,

We call on the international community to give a principled and objective assessment of the crime committed by Ukrainian nationalists in Yelenovka. I saw "surprising" reports of representatives of international organizations. They were asked by journalists how they assess what is happening and directly these events. They answered that they did not have first-hand information. What information did the international officials have about Bucha, Kramatorsk? Whose "first hands" do they consider worthy to bring materials for commentary? I wanted to get a list of first-hand sources of information. In other cases, nothing prevents them from quoting unverified data from social networks, or citing materials from non-governmental organizations. In this case, there are more than enough of them, but for some reason they are not included in the notorious “first-hand” category. Amazing balancing act.

We hope that the specialized structures of the UN and the experts of the International Committee of the Red Cross, which in May of this year. contributed to the evacuation of civilians from the dungeons of Azovstal, will not shy away from our invitation to take part in studying the situation.

We look forward to fruitful cooperation with representatives of the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross in providing information on the conditions of detention of Russian, DPR and LPR servicemen in Ukrainian captivity. We are still facing what used to be called “double standards”. Now we are talking not just about "double standards", but about criminal negligence in covering and evaluating current events. Representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross demand that they be granted access in Russia to places of detention of Ukrainian prisoners of war and surrendered members of Ukrainian nationalist formations, especially from the Azov unit, but at the same time they are silent about the results of their work in relation to the military personnel of Russia, the DPR and the LPR who are in captivity .

The crimes of the Kyiv regime are not limited to the destruction of former colleagues in Yelenovka. Shelling of peaceful cities and towns of the DPR, LPR and liberated regions of Ukraine from artillery pieces of 155 and 120 mm caliber, as well as multiple launch rocket systems and the Tochka-U missile system, continues.

Last week, the center of Donetsk, Makiivka and Novolugansky were shelled with prohibited anti-personnel mines "Lepestok". I saw this information in the Russian media, social networks. Questions were also raised, where are the Western journalists? Where are the very specialized Western non-governmental organizations that oppose the use of such weapons? They are silent and "do not see." Again, no first-hand information? Here she is. We talk about it.

In the Zaporozhye region, granaries in the settlement of Zaporozhye were repeatedly shelled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine Energodar and Kamenka-Dneprovskaya. We regret that Western countries and international structures again do not notice this and do not give any assessment to the Ukrainian shelling. Or food is not right? Not those granaries? There are "correct" ones that cannot be touched. For example, in the port of Odessa - "correct" and should not fall under shelling, and on the territory of the DPR - "not quite correct." Another variety? Did other people grow? Why isn't anyone talking about this?

We paid attention to the new "holiday" proclaimed by the Kyiv regime, July 28 - the day of the statehood of Ukraine, which President V.A. Zelensky called "a free, sovereign and independent state, the only legitimate heir of Kievan Rus." It seems like everything is mixed up there. Soon they will dedicate each other to the princes, dignify the lords - some kind of obscurantism.

As Sergey Lavrov wrote in his article in the Izvestiya newspaper, staging is a favorite method of Western politics. It is ridiculous to do it this way, when all states (not only Slavic ones) understand how absurd such statements are. Much has been said about the blatant falsification of history by the Ukrainian authorities, about who the heir of the current neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv really is. Why go far? Look at the patches of some Ukrainian fighters. Do you know whose real and legal heirs they are? Answer: those whose stripes are worn on the sleeves of the Azov Battalion are Nazis. Everyone is well aware of this. Leave Kievan Rus alone, don't touch it with your dirty, bloody hands.

There is no doubt how "free and independent" modern Ukraine is. This country has not just lost its sovereignty. The Kyiv rulers did not even sell it or mortgaged it (there would be some kind of income), they squandered it - this is a correct and understandable term for everyone. There is no freedom of speech. Completely fell under Western bondage. For many years Ukraine has been under the external control of Western countries. What kind of freedom, sovereignty and independence, when the government of Ukraine was not just present as advisers, but the country was ruled by citizens of other countries who do not even speak their native Ukrainian language? They sat with translators with passports of other states, having no connection to the modern statehood of Ukraine. Were "landed" for external control. What kind of freedom, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine to talk about, if all the subsoil, wealth - everything that is in this country is placed under the external control of Western businessmen, corporations, companies or people who have the closest lobbying ties with the American political establishment. Show freedom. Even outward signs are gone: there is no independent media, no alternative opposition parties, no one who could freely and openly publish their opinion on what is happening in this country. Many were simply killed. Even the official negotiator was killed on the streets of Kyiv practically without trial or investigation, "during the arrest." Is this some kind of perverted understanding of fundamental principles? The fact that the Parliament of Ukraine adopted a bill on the special status of the Poles, which equalizes their rights with Ukrainian citizens, speaks for itself.

For many years, Ukraine has been under the external control of the West, and he uses it in his geopolitical interests as a tool in the fight against Russia. This is what happened to the state, which for the first time in its history gained sovereignty and independence.

Against this background, Russia's accusations of intending to destroy the statehood of Ukraine sound extremely cynical. The Kyiv regime itself has been doing this for a long time. It was the West that destroyed it in its own interests, so that it would be easier to manage the mechanism created to counter Russia. Ukraine was turned into a neo-Nazi state dependent on the West. Why neo-Nazi? Because it is the easiest way to recruit and recruit people. There is nothing easier than explaining to people why they should hate their neighbors. Simply because they have a different eye color, nose or ear shape, or deep in history, someone did not share something with someone. So did many. In this case, we see that this happens in turbo mode: everything takes not decades, but years. Before our eyes, the state has turned into a terrible, falling apart mechanism, stuffed with neo-Nazi.

This once again confirms the correctness of the goals and objectives of the special military operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine, protect the DPR and LPR and eliminate threats to Russia's security. The leadership of our country has repeatedly spoken about this.

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...15698207219712

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...24078103482374

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...22200154136576

[Ravenlocke]

In Moscow the online store OZON warehouse is on fire

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...15553335971840

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)

Kiev forcefully evacuating civilians from areas it controls: DPR

Leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Denis Pushilin, said on Monday that Ukraine is applying a forceful evacuation of the population from the territories in the DPR was underway.

There's quite some discussion of this by The Duran in this short (16 min) video, just published.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=I8Nlc63zV6w

My own view: the Russians may not be able to stop this from happening in any meaningful way, but all that will ensue is a high-level strategic decision to occupy all of Ukraine. If this was being debated in Moscow before, with differing opinions being offered, the debate may now be over.

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/s...35404146507776

https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/s...35411276791808

https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/s...35417211744257

https://twitter.com/DeuNachrichten/s...35424484663296

[Tintin]

The paywalled Telegraph article containing the admission that Washington (and I'd suggest London too) driving the Ukrainian war strategy.

Source: https://archive.ph/5lLqp

Britain helps Ukraine hunt for Russian spies eyeing Western military aid

Destroying military aid flowing into Ukraine from the West is ‘goal number one for Russian agents’, according to Ukraine military

By Dominic Nicholls,
DEFENCE AND SECURITY EDITOR
1 August 2022 • 6:00pm


Ukrainian forces have been using US-supplied Himars multiple rocket launcher systems in Ukraine CREDIT: Shutterstock

Britain is helping Ukraine hunt Russian spies targeting Western-supplied weapons, the acting deputy head of Kyiv’s military intelligence has said.

Finding and destroying military aid flowing into Ukraine from Western countries is “goal number one for Russian agents”, according to Major General Vadym Skibitsky.
Long-range artillery pieces, such as the US-supplied Himars system, have brought Moscow’s advance almost to a halt and in recent days have rendered bridges in the Kherson region impassable to Russian vehicles, cutting off troops as Ukraine prepares a counter offensive.

Western officials believe Moscow has instructed intelligence agents, possibly including spies from the GRU’s Unit 29155 – deemed responsible for the 2018 Salisbury nerve agent attack and other attempted assassinations – to find the weapons donated by Western partners.

Speaking exclusively to The Telegraph from Kyiv’s heavily fortified government security district, Gen Skibitsky said tracking down the Russian spies searching for the supply lines was “impossible” without help from Britain and other international partners.

“As far as military intelligence is concerned [Britain and the US have provided] almost everything from information to equipment.”

Gen Skibitsky gave no specific details of the support Britain is providing, but said the assistance was “minute-to-minute, real-time information [of] all kinds”.

A significant portion of the lethal aid flowing into Ukraine is originally flown into the Rzeszów-Jasionka airfield in Poland, close to the border.

Russian agents thought to be operating near the airfield are suspected of tracking military flights, passing information to colleagues in Ukraine. It is thought these operators then follow the weapon transfers to find the storage sites.

These locations are then targeted for destruction by Russian long-range weapons such as Kalibr cruise missiles fired from submarines in the Black Sea.

(article continues...)

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...10813193633792

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...10817476022273

https://twitter.com/TobiAyodele/stat...57040307855361

https://twitter.com/TobiAyodele/stat...57044871213058

[Ravenlocke]

https://www.rt.com/russia/560107-zel...-donbass-hell/

Donbass fighting is ‘hell’ – Zelensky

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said on Tuesday that the fighting in Donbass was “hell,” claiming that Kiev’s military remained heavily outgunned and even outnumbered by Russia and appealing to the US and its allies for even more weapons such as the HIMARS rocket launchers.

In a five-minute address to Ukrainians, Zelensky thanked US President Joe Biden and NATO for sending the rocket artillery, calling it “very effective” and vowing to inflict “more painful losses” on the Russians, whom he described as a “horde” of invaders.

“The word ‘HIMARS’ has become almost synonymous with the word ‘justice’ for our country,” Zelensky said.

The US has sent 16 of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to Ukraine so far. Russia said it had destroyed four of them, though Ukraine and the Pentagon have denied this. Zelensky added that he was expecting even more weapons from the West and thanked the Ukrainian diplomats trying to arrange for additional shipments.

“Yet we are unable to break the Russian army’s advantage in artillery and manpower, and this is very much felt in the fighting, especially in Donbass. Peski, Avdeevka, other directions … It’s just hell there. It cannot even be described in words,” the Ukrainian president added.

The myth of the HIMARS 'game changer': American-supplied rocket system is effective, but it won't bring victory to Ukraine
The myth of the HIMARS 'game changer': American-supplied rocket system is effective, but it won't bring victory to Ukraine
The two towns near Donetsk, heavily fortified since 2015, have seen heavy fighting over the past week. On Tuesday, Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov, embedded with the military in Donbass, posted an expletive-laden report from Peski calling it a “meat grinder.” Butusov infamously filmed himself firing a cannon on the Donbass “separatists” last year.

“There is no counter-battery fire, none at all,” he wrote on Tuesday. Russian forces were firing “6,500 shells per f****g village in less than 24 hours. It’s been like this for six days now, and it’s hard to fathom how any number of our infantry remain alive under this barrage.”

Ukrainian troops were holding the line, Butusov claimed, but “without counter-battery fighting, it turns into a senseless meat grinder, where huge numbers of our infantry are chewed up in one day.” According to Butusov, a reserve platoon that tried to advance was taken apart in minutes, with only one out of 15 men left unharmed.

“All the reserves are spent, the military equipment goes up in flames, and the enemy approaches and takes our positions without any problems after another barrage of artillery,” he wrote. “Right now we are losing Péski, all our human and material capabilities are almost exhausted.”

While Zelensky did not go into this much detail, he did say that of the 167 service members he was decorating this week, 32 would get their awards posthumously.

Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, citing Kiev’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements, designed to give the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk special status within the Ukrainian state. The protocols, brokered by Germany and France, were first signed in 2014. Former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko has since admitted that Kiev’s main goal was to use the ceasefire to buy time and “create powerful armed forces.”

In February 2022, the Kremlin recognized the Donbass republics as independent states and demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country that will never join any Western military bloc. Kiev insists the Russian offensive was completely unprovoked.

[Oxygen]

Posted by Goba (here)
Russia is losing. I mean in a greater sense it has already lost but in a military sense - it will also loose. No amount of morally corrupt support for the aggressor will change that. It so funny to see how people who are posed against american wars of aggression then think if someone else starts to kill and maim its for the good.

Why will Ukraine win (in all likelihood - nobody can be sure right now) you can read here:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-st...usso-ukrainian

Did you think for yourself or just assume he’s right about everything?

Time…. When did Russia ever say anything about time? Please show me. I’m not saying they didn’t, but I haven’t noticed.
Zelesnky himself has several times said this must be finished before wintertime. Was he being a comedian? If so, please tell me why.
Economics… that’s the x-factor. It’s hard to get a clear idea of the Russian’s situation. Who looks the most stressed? Russia or Europe? If economics, or time becomes an issue for Russia, I think we will see desperation. You have to be very imaginative or blind to see desperation now.

Logistics and landscape….. First the landscape, is it very different than the Russian landscape? What is the actual landscape challenge? I can seeing crossing rivers when attacking being a challenge, but what else?
What is the logistic challenges? They are neighbors, with a very long border.
Whatever advantage Ukraine might have in landscape/logistics, I’m convinced Russia much more than equals that by their air superiority.

Ethos… he’s right, Russia can pull back, Ukraine can’t. Ukrainians can choose to live though, which thankfully many of them have done by surrendering. When was the last time a Russian surrendered? I can’t remember. Maybe May? You tell me.
The Russians seems to be highly motivated. Why wouldn’t they? They have seen their countrymen being shot dead in disgusting war crimes. Some of those videos have even been confirmed by western media, and you know it’s true. The Russians have seen much more though, which you have never seen. Much of that is credible to me, even more so to a Russian.

Strategy…. According to western/Ukraine intelligence the Russians are a joke. So bad that it’s almost unimaginable.
How come they keep gaining ground then? The attacking side historically needs a 3:1 advantage, but the Russians gain grounds with 1:1, if not less. The if is only because things have changed, and the Russians have equaled the Ukrainian numerical advantage. IF that’s the case, the number of dead Ukrainians are heartbreaking.

Please don’t lean on dirty players. Think for yourself.
I’m not saying you’re smarter than these players, but I’ll put money on you having a moral compass a million times better.

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/ChannelOne_eng/s...45102413078529

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...09831864897538

https://twitter.com/Hawkeye1745/stat...98985180860416

[kfm27917]

Electronic warfare systems "Pole-21" in the Russian army

https://en.topwar.ru/182196-kompleks...koj-armii.html

[kfm27917]

Operational pause threatens to develop into a positional impasse

The operational pause in the actions of the allied forces in Ukraine is being delayed: despite recent statements about the increase in the actions of groups in all operational areas in Ukraine, no changes have been observed so far, no serious offensive operations of the RF Armed Forces and the NM LDNR are being carried out. The current situation on the Ukrainian front is increasingly beginning to resemble the situation on the Western Front in 1915-1916, that is, a "war of attrition."

Why does the operational pause threaten to develop into a positional impasse? Let's try to answer this question.

Results of the first and second stages of the SVO

If we talk about the first stage of the special military operation in Ukraine, then we can state that it ended not entirely successfully, despite the bravura statements of politicians about its successful completion. And this is not only my opinion - the well-known Russian political scientist Sergei Markov, for example, adheres to the same view of the situation.

“The first stage of the NMD in Ukraine was that the Russian army made a breakthrough in key areas and approached large cities - Kyiv, Kharkov, Chernigov, Poltava, Nikolaev, Kherson. It was assumed that the fights that broke out in these cities would lead to the collapse of the system of state power in Ukraine, a power vacuum would be created that would be filled by former Ukrainian politicians who were forced to leave for Russia after 2014, like Oleg Tsarev, by repressed Ukrainian politicians like people from the team of Viktor Medvedchuk, unprincipled people from Zelensky's team who have gone over to the side of the new government, and generals, security officials. However, the first stage was unsuccessful, it was completed only by twenty percent - it was possible to reach large cities and even take Kherson. But the collapse of the Ukrainian state power did not happen - it continued its functioning, the security forces remained loyal to the Kyiv regime. Moreover, the groups of Russian special forces that were moving forward with a jerk found themselves under severe flank attacks and suffered significant losses, ”

- notes Sergei Markov.

The general mobilization in the LPR and DPR, which, as I have repeatedly noted in previous materials, included teachers, students, miners, etc., was carried out primarily in order to tie down the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass so that the enemy does not transfer them to Kyiv. However, the goals were not achieved. Therefore, the priorities of the NWO have changed somewhat, and politicians, instead of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine, started talking about the liberation of Donbass as a priority goal.

Actually, the second stage of the military operation (which, as some experts rightly point out, after the failure of the first stage, in fact, grew into a real war) took place under this slogan. However, despite the liberation of the entire territory of the LPR and the achievement of tactical successes, it was not possible to defeat the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass. Moreover, the enemy continues to subject the DPR to regular shelling, especially Donetsk and Gorlovka, because the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as before, are actually located on the outskirts of the city.

The tactics of the RF Armed Forces consisted in advancing through the enemy's fortified areas by creating a "barrage of fire", concentrating a large amount of artillery on a narrow sector of the front, and advancing after mass artillery preparation. The curators of Ukraine from the United States and Britain responded to this with the supply of the Armed Forces of the MLRS HIMARS, which began to inflict painful blows on ammunition depots and supply bases in order to deprive the RF Armed Forces of this advantage. And partly they managed to achieve their goal.

Why are allied forces facing a positional stalemate?

Russia is trying to wage war with less manpower than Ukraine and counting on an advantage in artillery. Approximately the same tactics were used by the German General Erich von Falkenhayn on the Western Front during the First World War, which I recently wrote about in my material “Erich von Falkenhayn and his strategy of war with limited forces with a decisive goal”, who is interested, can read. I can only emphasize that this tactic did not lead to anything good for the German army.

Trying to "grind" the Ukrainian army and take it to starvation, you can fall into a trap, because "grinding" is always mutual. Actually, already now the situation is such that it is very problematic to conduct offensive operations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM LDNR due to the lack of infantry.

This is also noted by FSB colonel in reserve Igor Strelkov, who writes that “on our side of the front, we, alas, have almost nothing to attack with. In every way". You can attribute this to the colonel's pessimism (although, as practice shows, his forecasts often have a habit of coming true), but we really see that the allied forces are no longer carrying out any offensive actions. The capture of Seversk, which has already been announced twice, is being delayed, due to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not retreating from there, but, on the contrary, are pulling up reserves and strengthening their positions.

Political scientist Sergei Markov, who takes a rather balanced approach to forecasts regarding the military operation in Ukraine, is not sure about the assertions of some experts that the military potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been undermined, and the front will soon crumble.

“There are two positions, one is that the personnel potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is largely undermined, and Ukraine is forced to throw poorly trained reservists into battle. The second point of view is that the newly mobilized reservists are thrown onto the battlefield in order, on the contrary, to preserve the regular army of Ukraine, which is mainly located in the west, where it is being re-equipped with western weapons and retraining. And the purpose of this is to prepare a counteroffensive around August-September, after the significant exhaustion of the Russian army in bloody battles. Then supposedly there will be one or two counterattacks by the Ukrainian army, equipped with the latest Western weapons systems, with the support of Western PMCs.”

The second option, which Markov speaks of, is quite probable. Relying only on the advantage in artillery, having a smaller number of infantry than the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is extremely dangerous. For a while, this may work, but sooner or later a situation will arise when it becomes simply impossible to attack with such forces. De facto, it has already arisen. The United States, Great Britain and their allies are supplying Kyiv with as much weapons as it needs to ensure that the RF Armed Forces cannot conduct serious offensive operations without mobilization.

There is an opinion that Russia is capable of achieving victory without mobilizing and transferring industry to a military footing, but it cannot withstand a collision with reality. So far, the allied forces cannot even liberate the Donbass, and the military conflict is close to a “hot freeze”. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, in turn, are preparing for counterattacks, under the supervision of Western "partners". Even if we assume that all of them will be successfully repulsed, with the current alignment of forces, the war may finally take on the character of a positional one, and the front line will stabilize in the current configuration.

https://en.topwar.ru/199535-operacio...nyj-tupik.html

[kfm27917]

When Russia will start a special operation for real

They don't take the city by standing.

Speed ​​and pressure are the soul of real war.
Politics is a rotten egg.
A.V. Suvorov

Let's ask one extremely uncomfortable question - why in the special operation in Ukraine Russia behaves relatively "galantly", allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to receive (albeit partially) weaponwithout inflicting significant blows on decision-making centers, infrastructure? Yes, our rockets and artillery inflict huge damage on the enemy! But there are still some red lines.

Here is the opinion of O. Tsarev, a former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, who warned us about the attack on Donbass:

“... The West is trying not to cross certain red lines, including not supplying ... weapons that can seriously affect the course of a military campaign. In response, Russia does not “calibrate” Kyiv, the electrical substations that feed the cities, and does not destroy the transport infrastructure ... Otherwise, it is impossible to explain what is happening now. Of course, such agreements, if any, drastically reduce losses on both sides.”

Our intentions are good and full of humanity - there is no need to create complete chaos there. But everyone (!) feels that in all this stories something is wrong. The Russian army, the second in the ranking of the strongest armies in the world after the United States, cannot be constrained in its actions by the enemy army, which occupies only (!) 22nd place. And the Ukrainian territory cannot be the “Mannerheim Line” in all places (and that one was taken), there must be weak points - and our intelligence is well aware of this.

And if Moscow has been following the red lines since 1985, then they are not written for the West. However, in fact, stretching the time of the special operation multiplies the losses of the parties, and lethal weapons - (MLRS) HIMARS are still being delivered!

According to the director of the Institute for Political Studies, Sergei Markov:

“The Russian authorities may find themselves in a dangerous situation of reducing public support for the military operation in Ukraine. The reason is that the Russian army is not advancing and is not inflicting serious blows on the Kyiv regime. This causes growing disillusionment in society. The patriotically oriented part of society ... suspects ... the lack of political will of the Russian leadership for a serious war. The absence of serious strikes against the headquarters and communications through which mass deliveries of weapons from NATO countries to the Ukrainian army go is inexplicable in public opinion. And they are not explained in any way by the authorities. So the authorities risk losing contact with the population.”

Perhaps the political scientist is harsh, but there is a problem. According to military expert Mikhail Khodarenok:

“A strategy has been adopted to deplete the enemy’s resources. After the final retirement of the combat-ready backbone of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the deprivation of the Ukrainian troops of the minimum number of heavy weapons, repair and fuel and lubricant resources, things will go faster.”

It is very reasonable, indeed now in the Donbass it is “grinding” and the most combat-ready part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already failed. But in terms of supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we see a “phoenix effect” due to NATO supplies, while the stretching of time allows us to constantly replenish the combat strength, albeit with forces of poorer quality.

Need a middle ground

1. The supply of groups is being carried out, which are even in a semi-encirclement. The main scourge of the special operation is Avdiivka, which is located on a hill. On June 13, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out the most powerful shelling of Donetsk in the entire conflict, including M777 guns (USA) and French Caesars, which reached the front line through Poland and Romania (!). Finally, there is a shift here too - the armed formations of the DPR took it into a semi-circle, the batteries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to be more effectively suppressed. The stockpiles of chemicals, which cannot be destroyed, and the fortifications at the plant itself also prevent a strike on Avdiivka.

2. But there are also economic reasons, and they probably dominate. The coking plant is the largest in Europe, and, in addition to Akhmetov, the interests of other foreign investors may be involved there.

3. As you know, Roman Abramovich in March came under the sanctions of Great Britain and the European Union. However, around March 23, US President Joe Biden removed him from sanctions at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in advance, since he was assigned the role of mediator in the negotiations in Istanbul, which took place on March 29. And they want to scale this successful example. The West is pushing the idea of ​​giving Russian businessmen the opportunity to “pay off the sanctions” by sending money to help Ukraine. Allegedly, such a proposal was made by the Deputy Minister of Finance of Canada, Chrystia Freeland, after a preliminary discussion (!) Of her idea with the "Russian oligarchs".

4. As Zbigniew Brzezinski said:

“Russia can have as many ... nuclear buttons as you like, but since the Russian elite has $500 billion in our banks, you still have to figure it out: is it your elite or already ours? I do not see a single situation in which Russia will use its nuclear potential.”

It is enough to replace the word "nuclear" with "military". Moreover, we are talking about a much larger amount. According to the Boston Consulting Group, in 2014 alone, the volume of funds withdrawn by residents of the Russian Federation to offshore reached about $2 trillion.

5. There is evidence that the use of Western weapons allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct a fairly effective counteraction to the Russian army. In particular, military correspondent Oleksandr Sladkov stated in his Telegram channel that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) have recently delivered effective strikes against Russian decision-making centers (!).

6. And here is the message of I. Strelkov:

“Apparently, Russian air defense systems ... turned out to be ineffective against massive attacks by Himers missiles ... Over the past 5-7 days, more than 10 large warehouses of artillery and other ammunition, several oil depots, about a dozen command posts and about the same number of locations of personal composition in our near and deep rear. As well as several air defense positions and artillery positions ... when devastating strikes begin on the so-called transport system. "Ukraine", through which all these "Himers", "777" and "Caesars" (as well as ammunition for them) are safely and unhindered delivered to the combat area?

7. As early as April 14, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that the United States does not see Russia trying to interrupt the flow of American weapons entering Ukraine:

“Flights to transshipment points in the region are still operating… Every day, aid arrives in Ukraine… weapons, materials… We have not seen any attempts by Russia to cut off this flow. And we're just going to keep doing it."

After this fact was announced in Mikhalkov's Besogon, reports began to appear in the media that warehouses were broken, cargo, bridges, etc. were destroyed. There were also explanations why it was difficult to stop deliveries: the Russian Federation does not want to violate the integrity of the railways, since this will make it impossible for the population to leave the zone of operation, paralyze civilian supplies; cargoes are delivered disguised under the flag of the Red Cross, a mixed composition of civilian and military purposes is drawn up, which cannot be hit.

In fact, arms deliveries are certainly being destroyed, the question is in what proportion. The paradox is that if these deliveries were destroyed "under the root" - they would simply stop. And Kirby clearly hints at this. So, politics is a rotten egg.

According to (17.06) the Kremlin spokesman, the main goal of the operation is to ensure the safety of the inhabitants of Donbass "from the barbaric shelling of the Kyiv military." And this goal has not been achieved: the shelling does not stop. Moreover, the impudent enemy in his madness is hatching plans for a counteroffensive, the return of the southeastern lands, attacks on the Crimean bridge, etc. Where does all this come from?

The answer is simple - Western help is coming, and Ukraine, having found its calling in the role of an obliging serf, feels the help of a giant octopus. But the mongrels of the West understand only strength, and only a powerful defeat can force Ukraine to change its plans.

Now about the extremely surprising US forecasts regarding the pace of the operation, made on the eve of the special operation - in February 2022:

"Three US officials told Newsweek they expect the Ukrainian capital to 'fall' within days."

And even the head of the US Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, during closed hearings in Congress, said that in the event of Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine, Kyiv would fall in 3 days.

Perhaps society underestimates the real consequences of Istanbul. We made another gift to the West and Kyiv by withdrawing troops from it. At that time, all the media actively wrote that we would send these forces to the Donbass to wage the main battle - the so-called "Donetsk arc", but we have not yet seen massive actions. In fact, the reason may be different.

Our oligarchic elite and the "fifth column", suffering huge losses from the "economic iron curtain", experiencing constant pressure from their Western partners, fearing an even greater deepening of sanctions, puts pressure on the Kremlin. And as long as our power depends on them, the constant "pulling" back and forth cannot be avoided. Our oligarchy will still have time to prove itself as a "real fifth column". But the government, which has grown up in cooperation with them, does not yet understand this. But you can expect anything from them. However, the logic of the development of the situation may lead to the mass disappearance of this class - the nationalization of raw materials is inevitable.

"In order to create favorable conditions for negotiations, we wanted to make a gesture of goodwill,"

- said the press secretary of the President Peskov.

Now let us present the assessments of a number of military experts of the negative consequences of the withdrawal of our troops:

“What is the risk of the withdrawal of Russian troops, which covered Kyiv from the west on the right bank? This grouping hung over the main communications that connected the west of the country with its center and east. Now the way for the supply of weapons from Poland is open ... In addition, there is a danger of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on important industrial and energy facilities of the Russian Federation.”

And the second assessment is regarding the fettering of the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the use of the forces of the Russian Federation:

“Will they leave their troops? If only the troops were withdrawn from the bridgehead, then they will remove all this from there. Therefore, talking about what needs to be concentrated in one fist is unrealistic. The Gostomel bridgehead attracted three times more forces than all the others, than now this number will go to the east of Ukraine, to the left-bank front. There are things when this is not a military decision… These are purely political reasons.”

Yes, we won a really huge victory - we took Mariupol, starved out Azovstal - we advanced from the flanks, and this is a great success. Victory is close, but we need to take the Donbass into a dense encirclement, and this step is still (!) not.

It is obvious that the original plan was Plan A (the beginning of a special operation), and the pace of the operation in Ukraine was more understandable. Who knows why the first commander left, perhaps he could not support the "Istanbul" option - plan B.

Why can't we ensure peace in Donbas yet?

There is the following hypothesis. The parties observe some red lines, but the West has been constantly “throwning” us, at least since 1985. V. Putin back in December 2021 said that Moscow was "pinned" to the red lines, and she had nowhere else to retreat. The holding of negotiations on grain and fertilizers in the same Istanbul and the slowdown in Europe's decision to completely refuse Russian gas clearly show that there are red lines! The US has not completely cut us off from the “dollar” (!), there are banks that make transactions. Ukraine is not supplied with certain types of weapons. Kyiv has not yet committed sabotage on Russian territory, and we do not see any strikes on Crimea. But at the same time, there are no agreements on NATO expansion, which was the reason for the onset of the crisis, when Moscow first delivered an ultimatum and later resorted to a special military operation.

But then, when our troops showed unprecedented power in the first weeks of the special operation, while occupying vast territories, we were invited to Istanbul and, as in Minsk in 2014, we were offered new red lines. Perhaps we were on the verge of Minsk-3, but only the extremely negative reaction of the Russian society and the fanaticism of Zelensky prevented this.

And we again comply with them, curtailing the scale of the special operation, not realizing that all this will be used against us. Or yielding by inertia, as we have become accustomed to since 1985. Let us recall the historic meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, at which the decision on the NMD was made. So how many of its members offered options - first to notify US President Biden about the decision of the Russian Federation, live in front of the whole country? The US does not have any red lines - that is why they are pumping weapons into Ukraine, and sooner or later this may give a result. If we do not understand, there is simply nothing to be afraid of.

What will be our next push? There must be some event "H" or the achievement of some action on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will make the "Russian bear" wake up and tear his enemies with strong paws. And these enemies are Ukrainian "demons" who have broken through to power. One of the options is the supply of Hymers systems. And the second is a possible major armed provocation by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will bring us tangible losses.

And here are the new news - NATO in the coming months as a priority intends to increase the supply of (MLRS) HIMARS, and the greater our success, the greater will be support for NATO. And after that, as on February 24, we will have to enter a new orbit, breaking a new level of red lines.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on July 7 that Russia has not yet begun to show what it is capable of.

“Everyone should know that by and large we haven’t really started anything yet.”

And this is 100% fact.

Russia acts with varying severity, avoiding massive contact, focusing on remote strikes and showing maximum diplomacy, relying on the turn of the situation and "probing" the possibility of gradual success.

We do not yet have goals for the restoration of the empire, although the course of history pushes us in this direction. If we liberate a significant part of Ukraine (Plan A) - and then annex it to Russia, the West will perceive this as an attempt to restore the empire - which is like a red rag to a bull. And we do not know what to expect from them in this case. And the operation is still (!) Protracted. But if the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine crumbles, we will not lose ours.

According to Oleg Tsarev, some Russian officials are interested in our controlled defeat, trying to maintain their power!

“Imagine... that you have achieved everything in your life... And suddenly life changes dramatically... Change is required, and change can lead to a change in the power elite. How to avoid it?
... It is necessary to control the defeat in the war, concessions to the West, which will allow us to return the status quo, and therefore retain power ...
In such a situation, the old elites ... are trying with all their might to prevent the early end of hostilities by defeating the enemy ...
Therefore, we do not freeze Western assets, which would be a logical and symmetrical response to Western financial and economic sanctions. We continue to pay debts to "unfriendly countries".

(Quote dated May 12.05.2022, XNUMX).

Back in April, military commander Alexander Sladkov put forward his concept of achieving a complete victory in Ukraine:

“Conclusion: the opponent cannot be beaten on points… It is necessary to knock out… we have two options.
First: to wage a slow war, stammering about each village, but moving forward (a year, two?). <…>
The second option is assault. That is, the mobilization of all forces for a decisive blow. And here - what is more rational? A long war against 20 countries, the economic leaders of the world, or a quick solution ...
Well, and the maximum build-up of forces in Ukraine, in order to turn from a gallant musketeer into a hero Ilya Muromets with a huge club. This club should beat, not lie down.

In his mind, this is a tripling of the combat potential in Ukraine.

And here is Ramzan Kadyrov's address to the President dated March 4:

“Give an order to our fighters to capture Kharkov, Kyiv and all other cities, quickly, clearly, efficiently ... I can’t watch how my and our fighters, the Ministry of Defense, the National Guard and other structures die. I beg you to close your eyes to everything and let them finish in a day or two what is happening there. Only this will save our state and people. This is my firm opinion."

So, when will Russia finally start a special operation for real? Soon at the door...

https://en.topwar.ru/199614-kogda-ro...redakcija.html