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10th September 2022 15:23
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Avalon Member
Failure of sanctions - European energy crisis - currency and economic crisis - winter 2022
This is a huge subject and I think deserves a specific thread to try and pull it all together. Not about the Russia-Ukraine war itself, but the effects of the war, the sanctions and their failure - and the entirely predictable consequences - and also some unpredictable ones.
The short story: the sanctions on Russia have failed and the consequences are to damage the EU and the UK far more than expected.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/ene...n-can-solve-it
Energy prices have gone sky high - but this is only the beginning. They will get worse in the winter when demand peaks. And even now EU and UK governments must borrow vast amounts of money to in effect subsidise energy prices. Talk of "price caps" does not work in reality, it is all smoke and mirrors which does not change the basic lack of supply of gas.
This will have the effect of driving up inflation and driving down the value of Euro and Sterling. Leading to more expensive imports and - more inflation. Businesses across Europe will shut down because of expensive energy and the economy will be severely damaged. Leading to recession (and weaker currencies - more inflation again). Possibly a depression.
The simple solution is to drop sanctions but that is impossible politically because it shows "Putin has won". Instead the population and the economy will be sacrificed. Perhaps the new Italian government will break ranks and this will change policy.
But equally likely is economic disaster and potentially an end to the Euro itself, which is already fatally flawed as shown by the Target 2 balances (an IOU from Italy, Spain, etc, to Germany which can NEVER be repaid)...
In short, winter 2022 is crunch time. The European population (including the UK) has only a vague idea of the level of economic pain that is approaching. The media is not explaining the root causes and problems. The politicians are gaslighting and making the situation worse. It is very messy and - unfortunately - is likely to get worse.
I know that many in the alternative media have predicted disaster which didn't happen. Whether it will be disaster or not, is hard to say. But it will be very bad, unless things change extremely soon. In other words, this time is different.
Much more to say but getting this out there to hear people's views.
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10th September 2022 15:54
Link to Post #2