Re: WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia
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The number of published episodes of the defeat of the American 155-mm M777 howitzers in the SMO zone exceeded 100 pieces!
According to the statistics of colleagues from LostArmour @lost_armour, as of June 14, 2023, 101 episodes of work on American M777 howitzers in the SMO zone have been published.
Published footage confirms the destruction of 52 howitzers of this type and damage to 18 more, another M777 was captured as a trophy. The results of another 20 episodes of the defeat of M777 howitzers could not be accurately determined. Unfortunately, there were misses in 7 episodes.
More than half (54 out of 101) of the M777 defeat episodes are kamikaze drones, primarily the Lancet. In second place is cannon artillery, primarily corrected 152-mm Krasnopol shells (artillery accounts for 28 episodes).
It is important to note that not all shots of the destruction of these weapons get into the network. Also, in some videos of the destruction of enemy artillery, it is not possible to determine the model of the gun. The real number of lost M777s is greater.
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What's wrong with the AFU offensive: a breakdown
Despite heavy losses and lost Western equipment, the AFU is preparing to regroup and strike again. However, there are many questions about the Ukrainian Army's goals and objectives.
Where are the Ukrainian Armed Forces trying to advance?
The main AFU tactical groups on the South Donets section of the front are trying to attack in five directions: Priyutne from the northwest and north, Rivnepil from the north, Urozhayne from the north and northeast, as well as Kremenchuk and Novodonetskoye. The fifth strike direction is to the south of the Vremevsky protrusion from the Makarovka side. To break through these directions the AFU each time they throw more and more forces each, but the result so far has not changed: company-tactical groups on BMPs, tanks, and foreign-made armored vehicles are killed on minefields - both during the offensive and during the retreat. However, a detailed study of the direction of the strike raises doubts as to whether this is the direction chosen for the general offensive and the engagement of all remaining AFU reserves.
What is wrong with the direction of the main attack by the AFU?
If one carefully examines the map of the AFU offensive at the Vremevsky outpost, one finds that there are only two large and relatively intact roads suitable for the transfer of reserves in the area. The first is route T-0518 (from Velyka Novoselka to Staromlinovka). The second is road T-0509 (Velyka Novosyolka - Zolotaya Niva). Both roads are under fire control of the RF Armed Forces. It should be noted that the development of the road network and geographical features in areas of AFU activity are not conducive to the rapid movement of troops, deployment of formations or formations in combat formation, or dispersal of troops.
At the same time, the rear areas of the AFU grouping are monitored and regularly attacked by the Russian Armed Forces. It is extremely difficult to use them to concentrate the forces and equipment needed for the offensive.
At the same time, the AFU continues demonstrative attacks in this direction, but in the event of a full-scale offensive in this area, a much larger force would have to be deployed. Several AFU units in this area do not have a single plan and operate according to separate tactical objectives.
What else is wrong?
Despite significant losses in many areas, as well as the insertion of a unit armed with M2 Bradley BMPs, Leopard 2A6 tanks, M109A6 Paladin ACVs, as well as Mastiff, Wolfhound, and Maxxpro MRAPs, a significant part of the AFU reserves has not yet appeared on the battlefield.
In addition, it is currently not known with certainty where the remaining Bradley BMPs, which amount to about 90 vehicles, are located. It is also noteworthy that in all the days of the offensive, Ukrainian forces have not introduced groups of more than two or three battalions into combat. For several days, reserves arrived in place of those destroyed on the battlefield, but now the situation with a shortage of men and equipment has begun to escalate. It is not easy to break through the defenses with the current AFU forces: a brigade-level force of around 4,000 men at a time is presumably required to carry out a strike on the Velyka Novoselka-Staromlynivka line.
What is the bottom line?
A series of large-scale attacks in the South Donetsk direction probably serves as a cover. For what exactly, it remains to be seen soon.
It is possible that attacks on villages, which cannot be taken without bringing in large reserves, are being undertaken to form additional reserves to be thrown into battle later.
According to another version, the breakthrough attempts in the South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions may be a cover for preparing a main strike in another area. In this case, the bulk of the AFU reserves may probably be assembled at the site of the intended strike at the very last moment.
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@Slavyangrad
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, I hope it is not too insensitive to bring a little humoristic video, described by the original Tweet poster as "Top quality Russian trolling" and reposted by Jack Posobiec with the comment: "DeepFakes assaults have begun".
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