WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

[Ravenlocke]

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⚡️The driver of the truck filled with drones that attacked Olenegorsk may not have known about the cargo — Baza

This morning, a truck stopped at a gas station at the entrance to the city. After a while, drones began flying out of the back, which then attacked various objects. The driver has been detained.

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1929131603915145500

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It looks again as though Ukraine used unsuspecting truck drivers to deliver the drone trailers. One driver got out to inspect his trailer and a bomb detonated reportedly killing him

https://x.com/squatsons/status/1929180816158167094

[Ravenlocke]

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🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 It is being reported that at least 30% of Russian long-range nuclear capable strategic bombers were reportedly damaged in the attack.

rnintel

https://x.com/dana916/status/1929215107688501432

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🇷🇺⚡The brave Russian people of Irkutsk took to the truck filled with explosive Ukrainian drones and tried disabling them.

This isn't fear Ukraine wanted, we will burn you bad, enjoy your little victory.

https://x.com/Alex_Oloyede2/status/1929174415511568407

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‼️🇷🇺💪 #Russian civlian heroes disarmed a #Ukrainian drone truck in the Amur region.

Disguising a weapon of war a civilian truck is a war crime by the #Zelensky regime.

‼️🇷🇺🚀 Oreshnik is coming..

https://x.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1929201297024008620

[Ravenlocke]

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🇺🇦🪖The commander of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine Ground Forces, Mikhail Drapaty, submitted his resignation. All because of the strike on the 239th training ground, which resulted in the death of the military:

"Mutual responsibility and impunity are poison for the army. I tried to eradicate it from the Ground Forces. But if tragedies are repeated, it means that my efforts were not enough. We have no right to live in a system that doesn't learn. If we do not draw conclusions, do not change our attitude towards the service, and do not admit our mistakes, we are doomed. Without personal responsibility, there is no development. Without development, there is no victory. An army in which commanders are personally responsible for people's lives is alive. An army where no one is responsible for the loss is dying from the inside."

https://x.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1929208581506699313

[Ravenlocke]

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‼️🇺🇦🇷🇺 Photo shared by #Ukraine️'s SBU Chief Vasyl Maliuk during the “Web” special operation against #Russian airbases.

https://x.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1929179926826975323

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‼️🇷🇺🛸🇺🇦 The moment quick thinking local #Russian civilians used rocks to stop armed drones from flying out of the #Ukrainian drone truck in Irkutsk.

‼️These men will should be given a state award for their brave actions.

https://x.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1929170994905649242

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‼️🇺🇦🇷🇺 #Ukrainian Media Reveal FPV Drones Used in Attacks on #Russian Airbases — Operation “Spiderweb” Allegedly in Preparation for 1.5 Years

Ukrainian media have published photos of the FPV drones used in the recent attacks on Russian airbases.

According to Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR)-linked sources, the operation was codenamed “Spiderweb” and had been in preparation for approximately 1.5 years.

The enemy publishes photographs of containers from which drones were allegedly launched. He claims that the drones were hidden in the roof of the container under a false ceiling.
Accordingly, before launch, the roof is moved/removed and the drones are quietly launched, using mobile or satellite Internet for communication.

After the attack, the container was detonated remotely

Ukranians do not have satellites.

https://x.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1929159833875345801

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🇷🇺💥🔥BREAKING: Explosions at Russia's Submarine nuclear naval base.

#Russia's nuclear triad (air, sea & land) is under attack. By Russia's own doctrine Russia must launch a total strike against the AFU

https://x.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1929156988753088820

[Ravenlocke]

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🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Hitting the Nuclear Shield

Ukrainian forces have launched their largest-ever strike against nuclear triad targets at strategic airfields in several regions. In some cases, FPV drones hit their targets, while in others, fortunately, they were prevented.

On the extent of the damage:

▪️ Fires were recorded on four Tu-95s at the Olenya airfield in the Murmansk region. Five columns of smoke were also seen at the Belaya airfield, where the Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS were located.

▪️ In the Amur Region, the attack failed - the truck with the UAV caught fire on the road. The intended target was apparently the Ukrainka airfield, where strategic aviation is also based.

▪️ There were reports of UAV threats at airfields in the Ryazan and Ivanovo regions, but no footage of explosions or burning aircraft was received from there. The Defense Ministry later reported that the attacks had been repelled.

▪️ Information about the arrivals in Severomorsk and Voskresensk also does not correspond to reality - the moments of explosions at Olenya were passed off as footage of the "arrivals".

▪️ The Ministry of Defense acknowledged the loss of equipment at Olenya and Belaya. At the same time, they added that there were no casualties among personnel or civilians.

▪️ In the evening, information emerged that the workshop for assembling and installing drones on a container was located in the Chelyabinsk region.

The attack was accompanied by official statements from Ukrainian special services, which reported the destruction of "over forty" strategic aviation aircraft. In reality, such a number of aircraft were not destroyed.

However, the blow was very sensitive, and talk about the opposite is self-deception bordering on sabotage. Perhaps the losses could have been even greater if several trucks had not exploded en route.

rybar

https://x.com/dana916/status/1929225982881485242

[Ravenlocke]

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🇺🇦🇷🇺Russian team headed by Vladimir Medinsky in Turkey for talks with Ukraine.

IntelRepublic

https://x.com/dana916/status/1929237759564124206

[Ravenlocke]

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The former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo sparked controversy at the "Black Sea Security Forum" in Odesa by openly thanking Donald Trump for authorizing an attack on Russian forces in Syria during his first term as president. Pompeo described the 2018 incident, in which U.S. forces reportedly killed up to 300 Russian personnel (often believed to be Wagner fighters), as a turning point and a signal of American resolve:

“In 2018 in Syria, we killed 300 Russians — the first time in a long while that Americans killed Russians in combat. By the way, thank you, President Trump, for that. I don’t know what another president would’ve done.”

Pompeo went on to question the effectiveness of the upcoming meeting in Istanbul, doubting whether real results would emerge unless the West is willing to escalate:

“I don’t know who’s actually going to show up in Istanbul on Monday. But at some level, it feels pointless unless we’re prepared to let the Ukrainians do what they did in the Black Sea - to threaten Russian assets again. I think we’ll have to do that again, and we must do it - together, hopefully with full NATO backing.”

While his remarks drew attention, some observers noted that the forum itself - featuring figures like retired British Colonel Richard Kemp, who controversially called for Ukraine to acquire nuclear weapons - has increasingly become a platform for political has-beens advocating aggressive posturing after the end of their public careers.
- UARU

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1929216273751093704

[Ravenlocke]

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Ukrainian UAVs, including jet drones are flying west through Voronezh Oblast towards the Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast.

As many as 100 Ukrainian UAVs have been launched from several locations in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts towards Voronezh and Kursk Oblasts. There are reports of Jet drones being among them.

https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/1929234450896056482

[Ravenlocke]

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Looks like at least 3 trucks full with drones did not reach their destination & self destructed on the way.

The downside of hiring civilian unsuspecting cargo transport companies is that … they might be late.

Now the number is 7 TRUCKS , AT 60 drones per truck !

https://x.com/SMO_VZ/status/1929221403317805526

[Ravenlocke]

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🇺🇸🇺🇦🇷🇺 Regarding Destruction of Several Russian Tu-95 Strategic Bombers...

This op likely involved FPV drones smuggled into Russia, an operation that took months or longer to carry out.

It is not something that could be sustained on a level capable of shifting the tide of the war or even slowing it down.

And again, as the US poses as "mediator" this op was carried out by US CIA trained and directed Ukrainians like earlier naval drone ops targeting Crimea.

Any op like this would require ISR only the United States could provide, and constant updates all the way up until the decision to launch the operation was made - and then additional ISR from the US to assess the outcome.

In other words, the US enabled this attack on Russia's strategic bombers while pretending to mediate amid its own proxy war on Russia.


https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1929171074253721946

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Any op like this would require ISR only the United States could provide, and constant updates all the way up until the decision to launch the operation was made - and then additional ISR from the US to assess the outcome.

In other words, the US enabled this attack on Russia's strategic bombers while pretending to mediate amid its own proxy war on Russia.

There is also evidence the drones used satellite communication to control them remotely, meaning US-based Starlink.

https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1929181592309923949

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There are many ways to do this, the ground station might have been located where the drones launched, relaying control signals to the drones using traditional signals after receiving commands from the satellite signal.

A signal would go from an operator in Ukraine -> Starlink satellite -> Starlink ground station at launch site -> launch site signal relay -> drone.

Hence the latency that appears in some of the videos I've seen.

This is speculation at this point, it will take time for all details to emerge.

The threat of drones smuggled into Russia to threaten assets far from Ukraine has been a persistent threat for years regardless of the details of specific attacks.
There may also be AI involved, training involving US-provided satellite imagery could have allowed drones to approach the airport, identify aircraft and attack specific parts like the wings automatically.

This would have the added benefit of circumventing electronic warfare employed against traditional drone signals.

https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/1929196104702431375

[Ravenlocke]

RT,
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NATO-backed Zelensky claims responsibility for TERROR attack on Russia

https://x.com/RT_com/status/1929257227677811195

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⚡️ Zelensky confirmed that the terrorist attack preparation center was in Russia

Prostorochnyy said in his evening address that the center for preparing the operation to attack Russian bombers was located next to the FSB headquarters.

Earlier it was reported that containers with drones used in the attack were assembled in Chelyabinsk, on the border with Kazakhstan. According to Mash, representatives of the Investigative Committee are checking this facility.

Zelensky also said that 117 drones were used in the operation. He added that as a result of the attack, Russia lost more than 40 units of strategic aviation.

- Ostashko

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1929250490342084938

[Ravenlocke]

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🇷🇺Medinsky stated that all comments regarding the draft memorandum on a settlement with Ukraine will be made on Monday.

He noted that he had seen reports about the terms Kyiv allegedly included in the memorandum, but emphasized that an official response will come on Monday.

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1929256651699155295

[Ravenlocke]

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Attack heroes of the Vostok group captured a stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction.

The facility was well fortified and camouflaged. The command decided to use assault groups on motorcycles to attack from the flanks.

During the battle, Russian servicemen broke the resistance and one militant was taken prisoner.

Ammunition and foreign weapons were found at the stronghold.

https://x.com/SMO_VZ/status/1929239352149762399

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🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦

The quantity of Russian advances and taking of settlements and strategic points is in rising daily ....

Failure of Ukraine’s Army is clear for anyone who asks a legitimate question..

Russian army stormed Karpovka after liberation of Redkodub and Lipovoye

▪️Russian troops are actively advancing in the Krasnolimansk direction, having occupied a large area of ​​territory between Redkodub and Lipovoye and having begun an assault on Karpovka.

➖"The Russians have broken into Karpovka. The area of ​​advance is about 10 km²," Ukrainian military analysts admit.

▪️The clearing of enemy strongholds beyond Lipovoye towards Zelenaya Dolina also continues.

https://x.com/SMO_VZ/status/1929249825947869537

[Ravenlocke]

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Kremlin has decided to give a tough response to Kiev, which will take place either today or tomorrow night!

The attack will be demonstrative. Today they will decide which objects to hit.

Rumors have started again that the Russian Federation may officially declare war on Ukraine.

It has also been decided that the DPRK army will participate in the hostilities

All our sources are sure that the conflict will escalate!

But everyone is sure that we should not expect a response with the use of tactical nuclear weapons, although they do not exclude it. But then we can put an end to the whole peaceful cause.

We are waiting!

https://x.com/colonelhomsi/status/1929200919293338098

https://x.com/colonelhomsi/status/1929201415932571673

[Bill Ryan]

Wow. I've just got back home, and read the last 26 posts all at once.

1. Time for Russia to formally declare the conflict an anti-terrorist operation, or even a war.
2. Time or another Oreshnik demonstration.
3. And the 'peace' talks in Istanbul tomorrow may be very interesting.

[Bill Ryan]

This livestream from Lt Col Daniel Davis started just a few minutes ago, and might contain some useful real-time updates. (I've not begun to listen to it yet.)

Ukraine Slams Russia, Destroys 40 Planes

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=uWXXTq81QRU

[Tintin]

Regarding Operation Spiderweb: something a little more grounded (pardoning the pun), and sensible, that I do agree with here from what I've seen myself. From Simplicius via X:

⚡️🇷🇺Newsflash: Sorry to disappoint sensationalizers, but there is high chance not a single Tu-95 was 'destroyed'.
Burning aviation fuel releases a lot of smoke, leading to grainy, distant videos making the hits appear more catastrophic than they are.
Russian bases have emergency fire suppression teams precisely for this task, and planes have caught fire before and been put back in service.
A tiny FPV hitting the wing and setting a fire does not lead to the loss of the entire craft. Sure, they will be under repair for a long time but unless precise confirmation is reached, we can assume 4-5 Tu-95s were "damaged" and taken temporarily/indefinitely out of service, pending repairs.
Ukraine has actually struck Tu-95s before with shrapnel and the planes were repaired, as most likely will be the case here.

The material (and materiel) damage won't bother Russia too much, but, as Medinsky says here (no subtitles): "Wait for tomorrow."



Source: https://x.com/MonitorX99800/status/1929247113067544771

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Tintin (here)
Regarding Operation Spiderweb: something a little more grounded (pardoning the pun), and sensible, that I do agree with here from what I've seen myself. From Simplicius via X:

⚡️🇷🇺Newsflash: Sorry to disappoint sensationalizers, but there is high chance not a single Tu-95 was 'destroyed'.
Burning aviation fuel releases a lot of smoke, leading to grainy, distant videos making the hits appear more catastrophic than they are.
Russian bases have emergency fire suppression teams precisely for this task, and planes have caught fire before and been put back in service.
A tiny FPV hitting the wing and setting a fire does not lead to the loss of the entire craft. Sure, they will be under repair for a long time but unless precise confirmation is reached, we can assume 4-5 Tu-95s were "damaged" and taken temporarily/indefinitely out of service, pending repairs.
Ukraine has actually struck Tu-95s before with shrapnel and the planes were repaired, as most likely will be the case here.

I think Simplicius is very probably right. TU-95s are huge aircraft, pretty much the same size as American B-52s. It'd take a lot for one to be 'destroyed', and whatever damage there is will probably be repaired very quickly.

The serious thing here, as all wargame strategists will fully understand, is that it could be seen as an attempt to disable Russia's nuclear capability. (A similar thing happened last year when there were US-guided Ukrainian strikes on Russia's strategic early-warning radar systems in Crimea.)

[Ravenlocke]

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Final tally of confirmed hits so far seems to be
5 Tu-95s,
2 Tu-22s,
one An-12.
According to my info, two of the 95s can most likely be repaired relatively soon, as the damage is not super extensive. At least one is dead for good. The 22s, no idea. Sure hurts but not devastating.

https://x.com/RWApodcast/status/1929249457104658750

Translated text:
🇷🇺 losses (incomplete and unverified data from two air bases: Belaya and Olen)
- 5 x Tu-95MS
- 2 x Tu-22M3
- 1 x An-12

to be continued



https://x.com/JanR210/status/1929203069188817286

[Ravenlocke]

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Ukrainian drones attack Ryazan. Air defense has been operating in the region for over an hour — locals heard at least 12 explosions in the sky above the city.

The first reports of the attack appeared at 23:20. People saw a bright flash and heard characteristic bangs as they approached the city. This caused the windows to shake in some houses. According to locals, the sounds of explosions are now predominantly in the area of ​​the railway station, the Dyagilevo and Prioksky microdistricts, as well as in the Nedostoevo area.
- Mash

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1929289908146839590

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❗️🇷🇺 Russian AD's intercepting Ukrainian drones over Kursk, Russia

aquila

https://x.com/dana916/status/1929284007704891570