dana
🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 There have been more attacks
The Ukrainian enemy's increased activity in the Black Sea
With the onset of spring, the high activity of Ukrainian formations has become noticeable. Since the beginning of March, attacks by the Ukainian enemy in the Black Sea have been recorded almost daily. Moreover, the tactics are regularly changing, and various objects are becoming targets.
In the last two days, the number of drones has really increased. The values are not peak (there have been more during the Special Military Operation), but more importantly, the attacks are happening almost every day, massively and for a long time.
More details about the attacks:
▪️Over the past three days, more than a hundred drones have been destroyed in various parts of Crimea, Sevastopol, and the Krasnodar Territory, as well as the waters of the Black and Azov Seas.
▪️The attacks are carried out along roughly similar routes day after day: on targets in the Krasnodar Territory or eastern Crimea - across the Azov Sea, if necessary, attacks on northern Crimea - through the Kherson region, and in other cases - across the Black Sea.
▪️In one of these attacks, the "Tikhoretskaya" oil transshipment base was attacked as a result of the arrival of eight drones. The fire was extinguished only the next day.
▪️At the same time, the Ukrainian formations once again tried to attack the 220 kV substation "Kafa", but our air defense units managed to repel the attack.
▪️This night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine actively attacked the port of Kavkaz on the shore of the Azov Sea, where several arrivals of FP-1 and "Dovbush" drones, launched from the Dnipropetrovsk region, were recorded.
An important point is that the intensification of drone attacks is parallel to the increased activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Black Sea zone. Increasingly, we can see the training of landing groups near Odessa, and we are increasingly observing BEEs in the west of the sea.
At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have also intensively started to attack the Kinburn Peninsula, where the use of reconnaissance drones, as well as strike ones, including FPV and VTOL with a system for dropping munitions, has increased significantly.
❗️The sharp increase in activity was also facilitated by the disconnection of "Starlinks" for Russia and the slowdown of Telegram. Together with this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received quite favorable conditions for carrying out their attacks. And this does not look very good in the future.
🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Suppression of Air Defense
Ukrainian Enemy Activation in the Black Sea
In the context of air raids, it's important to add the methodical nature of Ukrainian attacks. In anticipation of intensified strikes on the Krasnodar Krai, the Armed Forces of Ukraine took care to create comfortable (if we can call it that) conditions for their attacks.
Since the beginning of 2026, the Ukrainian side has once again intensified targeted attacks on air defense position areas, particularly focusing on the west of Crimea, the northeast, and the coastal areas of the Azov Sea in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.
Why? If we look at the map of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes, which they promptly published from January 1 to today, several gaps in the defense in the Black Sea zone clearly emerge. These are kind of corridors that can be used.
These routes were indeed used by Ukrainian formations in recent raids on Russian territories. Through the Black Sea to the center of Crimea, through Krasnoperekopsk to the east of Crimea, and through the Kherson/Zaporizhia regions to the east of Crimea and the Krasnodar Krai.
❗️Undoubtedly, some of the posted footage is the enemy's speculation, and there were either no damages or they were insignificant. However, their tactics are easily readable, and the goal is quite simple: they need to weaken Russian air defense in anticipation of spring-summer activation.
🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺Intensification of reconnaissance
Activation of the Ukrainian enemy in the Black Sea
Another sign of rather suspicious activity of Ukrainian formations is the resumption of NATO reconnaissance aircraft flights, which occasionally appeared in the Black Sea during the winter period.
And with the beginning of the war in the Middle East, the North Atlantic Alliance practically stopped its flights off the coast of Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. But in March, NATO aircraft again flew near Russian borders.
How did NATO reconnaissance operate?
▪️On the eve of active strikes by the enemy on the Tikhoretsk oil depot or attacks on energy facilities in Crimea, flights of the British electronic reconnaissance aircraft RC-135W and the French AWACS E-3F. were recorded in the air.
▪️And they flew during the attack of Ukrainian drones, that is, at the moment of the introduction of unmanned danger and the active work of our air defense. Why? We think there should be no questions here. Identifying the current measures and locations of Russian units is just one of the tasks.
▪️On the next day and on March 14, also in the Black Sea, in the central part and in the east of the water area, an American aircraft CL-650 was operating. And in good weather, we can certainly expect another night attack.
An important point is that now the AFU is hunting not only for SAM systems or radars, but also for maneuverable fire groups, which have de facto become the main shield against Ukrainian drones. And their opponent is also trying to attack them.
All this activity indicates that in the coming weeks we can expect an intensification of attacks or provocations, including with landing groups (the attack on the gas extraction tower “Sivash” in the Black Sea was not accidental).
This is also indicated by an increase in the number of reconnaissance drones such as "Bayraktar", "Teker AR-3/AR-5" and PD-2 over the Black Sea. Now, no less than 8 units are flying daily since the beginning of March.
❗️If we add to this an increase in the level of cargo shipping to the ports of the Odessa region, we get a more complete picture, where the AFU is intensively preparing for new operations. And it's better to be ready for this than to hope for peace.
rybar
https://x.com/dana916/status/2032931003476439418
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dana
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦Fighting southeast of Kramatorsk
On the Slavyansk front, Russian troops continue to move towards the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The greatest successes are being achieved on the southern flank, where fighters are advancing along a chain of strongholds.
The Russian Armed Forces have taken control of the remnants of the populated area of Minkovka, and assault troops are entrenching in Golubovka. Russian units continue to attack along the M-03 highway, moving even closer to the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal.
Yesterday, there were reports of Russian units crossing the canal in the area of Malinovka. So far, these claims have not been confirmed, but such an outcome of events is quite likely: over the past month, units of the "South" group of forces have advanced on a stretch up to 10 kilometers wide and up to 5 kilometers deep.
The northern flank is still relatively static, and there are fierce battles for the Krivaya Luk and Reznikovka. And in the area of Kalenovki, the destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles and artillery, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are deploying just a few kilometers from the front, in an attempt to contain the onslaught of the Russian Armed Forces, is continuing.
The capture of these populated areas will allow control over the nearby heights and create prerequisites for encircling the fortified area in Ray-Aleksandrovka from two sides.
The Ukrainian enemy will clearly try to hold the line Kalenovki - Ray-Aleksandrovka - Yurkovka as long as possible. Its loss will allow the deployment of gun artillery and UAV crews for strikes on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Slavyansk. Realizing the possibility of the start of battles for the city, the local authorities have already removed the trolleybus fleet and are engaged in the arrangement of anti-drone tunnels.
rybar
https://x.com/dana916/status/2032928028477497834
Re: WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia
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