WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Tintin (here)
Here's what Simferopol in Crimea (Russian, since 1783) really looks like, by the way, filmed this week:

Posted by Tintin (here)
The highest threat is to Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast. Other regions will also be hit, including possibly the western regions as they have not been targeted in some time.

If I had a choice of vacationing in either of Simferopol or Kyiv this week, it would be an easy choice.

[Tintin]

Ukraine's Desperate Propaganda Campaign While Russia Advances Along The Entire Front
Wednesday, Jul 01, 2026 - 08:30 AM
Authored by Larry Johnson

Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...g-entire-front

Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western backers have launched a desperate 40-day "campaign of terrors" — which includes a mix of military escalations and a massive information/psyops operation designed to portray Russia as collapsing and Putin as facing an imminent uprising or coup. The goal is to force Russia into a ceasefire. Western audiences are being flooded with social media and regular media articles that paint a dire picture of Russia’s military campaign, while touting Ukraine’s incredible accomplishments. It is all a load of crap, but that is all the West has left in its quiver as Russia’s campaign of attrition continues to pulverize Ukraine.

The Western-led propaganda campaign consists of the following elements:

- Information Warfare — Heavy push of 24/7 propaganda about Putin’s “imminent downfall,” including staged videos of supposed Russian soldiers announcing a mutiny.
- Fake Psyops — Coordinated attempts to stoke panic in Russia (e.g., false claims of fuel/gas shortages, which were partly caused by panic buying triggered by the rumors).
- Symbolic Actions — Staged drone flag-drops (e.g., on the Kinburn Spit near Crimea) meant to symbolize Russian retreat and collapse — quickly debunked and mocked.
- Broader Objective — Combine these narratives with actual strikes on Russian infrastructure to create the impression of regime instability, pressuring Putin politically.

Now for the reality. Yes, Ukraine has hit some Russian refineries and created some spectacular visuals of billowing smoke and fire. However, this is nothing more than military political theater that is intended to distract from Ukraine's setbacks all along the front. As a side note, Russian oil exports have increased during this same period, putting to bed the narrative that Russia’s oil industry in suffering catastrophic losses.

Here is a summary of Russian activity, starting in the Northern section of the front:

Sumy Direction
In the Sumy direction, the “North” assault groups advanced on 19 sectors, and some units of Ukraine’s 104th Territorial Defense Brigade abandoned their positions in Bachevsk. Russian forces continued active operations along the border, conducting strikes on Ukrainian positions and logistics. They reported repelling multiple Ukrainian attempts to cross into Russian territory and inflicting significant losses on enemy manpower and equipment. Russian soldiers are now only a few kilometers from Sumy itself.

Kharkiv Direction
Russian troops advanced in several sectors north and northeast of Kharkiv. The MOD reported the liberation of additional border settlements and improvement of tactical positions. Russian Geran drones conduct a series of high-precision strikes on gas infrastructure in Kharkiv region overnight. A gas distribution station near Panyutino was struck — disabling gas storage tanks, gas pumping plants, and a gas treatment facility. The Skvortsovskaya gas treatment system near Kosogorovka was also hit.​​ Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled, with Russian artillery and aviation playing a key role in degrading enemy capabilities.

Donetsk Direction (Primary Focus)
Donetsk remains the main direction of Russian offensive operations. Russian troops are steadily advancing on the Pokrovsk axis, with Russian forces capturing multiple settlements and pushing toward key logistical nodes. The most notable achievement is in Konstantinovka, where Russian units have taken control of most of the city and disrupted Ukrainian supply lines. With both Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka gone, Russia controls the two southern and eastern approaches that previously buffered the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. The H-32 Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and the T-0504 Bakhmut-Pokrovsk highway — both of which Russian forces had been fighting to seize specifically to link these two axes — now forms a contiguous corridor under Russian control, allowing logistics and force concentration to flow directly toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk without contesting two separate urban battles.The Russians also are advancing around Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, including gains in urban fighting and elevated positions.

Overall, the Russian MOD described consistent liberation of territory, high daily Ukrainian losses, and effective use of glide bombs, drones, and artillery to support ground advances.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro region)
In the Dnipropetrovsk direction, the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade captured Bogodarivka, the third settlement in three days since crossing the Dnieper River. Russian forces continue conducting regular long-range strikes (missiles and drones) on military-industrial targets, energy infrastructure, and logistical hubs in the oblast. Key targets included defense factories, repair facilities, and rail nodes supporting the Ukrainian front.

Zaporizhzhia Direction
In the Zaporozhye area, Russian forces have blocked a Ukrainian bridgehead in Aleksandrovka and have reached the southern outskirts of Pokrovskoye. After Russian forces took control of Novy Donbass, they advanced towards Shevchenko and Svetloye, isolating Ukrainian forward positions with drones. Russian forces maintain pressure through artillery, drone strikes, and localized assaults, destroying Ukrainian strongholds and equipment while holding defensive lines.

Kherson Direction
Operations remained largely positional along the Dnipro River. The Russian MOD highlighted successful strikes on Ukrainian crossings, logistics, and manpower concentrations on the right bank. Russian units conducted raids and maintained control over left-bank positions.

In other words, the Russian summer offensive is underway and Ukraine, despite its propaganda offensive, is retreating to the west.

* * *

[Ravenlocke]

Diana Panchenko 🇺🇦

Center of Global Fraud.

Two ukrainian millionaires .
One was kidnapped and cut into pieces in Bali.
Other was blown up in the center of Monaco.

Both controlled networks of fraudulent call centers that scam pensioners in the EU, Russia, and US.

According to international organizations, Ukrainian scam call centers generate around $2 BILLION in annual profit.

This figure is likely underestimated. Putin publicly stated that Ukrainian scammers steal about $2 billion from Russia alone. Huge sums are also stolen in the USA and EU.

Watch the movie The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, where a network of call centers scamming pensioners finances U.S. presidential elections and the Democratic Party.

Western law enforcement cannot reach these scammers because they are protected by the military.

Even with a conservative estimate, over the years of the war this amounts to about $10 billion in pure profit.

The war in Ukraine is also being fought for this money

https://x.com/Panchenko_X/status/2072237832773447916

[Ravenlocke]

Olga Bazova

Zaluzhny informed Zelensky that he will run for president, - UA

▪️The former commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informed the the expired usurper that he intends to run for president of Ukraine if the elections take place in the fall.
▪️Zaluzhny stated that he did not aspire to a political career, but believes it is impossible to ignore the expectations of citizens who associate their hopes with him.
▪️During his stay in Kiev, he was also met by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Umerov, and the head of the parliamentary faction "Servant of the People", Arakhamia. According to sources, they urged him to withdraw from the elections, pointing to the risk of a public split and a tense election campaign.
▪️The publication claims that Zaluzhny has not changed his position.

https://x.com/OlgaBazova/status/2072225807913619657

[Ravenlocke]

senore_amore

🇩🇪 🇷🇺 🇺🇦
German prosecutors have charged Ukrainian national Serhiy Kuznetsov with leading the group that blew up the Russian Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022.
He is currently in custody in Germany

https://x.com/SenoreAmore/status/2072362065730138252

[Ravenlocke]

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --

Russians:
Hold my Beer:

https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/2072228543749095752

[Ravenlocke]

DD Geopolitics

🇷🇺🇪🇪 Estonia's authorities are complicit in the terrorist attack carried out by the Kiev regime using drones against St. Petersburg, Maria Zakharova told TASS, commenting on the prank call by Vovan and Lexus in which Estonian presidential adviser Madis Roll offered to help coordinate attacks on St. Petersburg while believing he was speaking with NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov.

"Our target is located in the St. Petersburg area..."

"If any coordination issues come up, I can help, please let me know."

We'll upload the video once Vovan and Lexus release the English version.

https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2072286287160053922

[Ravenlocke]

Redacted

⚠️ The cracks are no longer hidden. Russian pressure is building, Zelensky’s inner circle looks shaky, and even Ukraine’s top military leadership appears to know the war is entering a far darker phase.
@DougAMacgregor
is with us.

https://x.com/RedactedNews/status/2072357693159886972

[Ravenlocke]

Brian McDonald

This could be meaningful.

Putin is holding an in-person Security Council meeting today, after recent sessions were held by video link.

According to Kremlin-linked commentary, “extremely important issues” will be discussed and even with fully secure video links, “personal communication is more reliable.

https://x.com/BrianMcDonaldIE/status...81547890192512

[Ravenlocke]

Brian McDonald

Jun 30
Former Kremlin chief of staff and Russian defence minister Sergei Ivanov has been buried at Moscow’s Troyekurovskoye Cemetery.

SHOT reports that the grave was covered with wreaths from senior officials and institutions, including Putin, PM Mikhail Mishustin, the presidential administration, the Russian Olympic Committee and the current defence minister.

Ivanov was buried next to his elder son, Alexander, who died in 2014.

Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin and other senior figures attended the farewell ceremony.

Ivanov died last weekend at the age of 73. He served as Russia’s defence minister from 2001 to 2007 and later as Kremlin chief of staff from 2011 to 2016. Until February 2026, he was Putin’s special representative for environmental protection and transport

https://x.com/BrianMcDonaldIE/status...93153511739657

[Tintin]

From AMK Mapping here concerning the late night/early morning Russian strikes in and around Kiev. I noticed earlier on the Slavyangrad Telegram account a very large number of videos and photos which I don't have access to from this work pc but can retrieve in a day or so.

Source: https://x.com/AMK_Mapping_/status/2072587063921406051

Another reason why you should NEVER trust official claims, from either side:

The Ukrainian Air Force claimed that 32 out of 34 Kh-101 cruise missiles were shot down.

This video shows smoke columns from 4 Kh-101 impacts, as well as another 3 impacts during the clip, completely disproving this claim. These missiles were targeting an assembly workshop of the "ATLON AVIA" drone production enterprise at 50.42146, 30.66120.

____________________________________________



The picture referred to is the (usual) nonsense interception rate drivel, otherwise known as lies, from Ukraine:



The video, although cropped, largely being done to provide some anonymity for the source - one can be arrested for showing what's actually happening in Ukraine if you can be traced - confirms AMK Mapping's observations:

[Tintin]

CLASH Report 7 minute compilation showing scenes from the massive bombardment on Kiev

Blinking flip. Well, they were warned:

[Jaak]

Supposedly 4th largest refinery in Russia , 2nd largest producer of gasoline.

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Jaak (here)
Supposedly 4th largest refinery in Russia, 2nd largest producer of gasoline.

Time to roll out the Oreshniks and point them at Europe. It really is.

[Tintin]

A brief summary from Olga Bazova (source: https://x.com/OlgaBazova/status/2072591614619369903 ) which will account for much of the incendiary activity witnessed:

_____________________

The Russian Armed Forces struck the "Radioniks" factory in Kiev, which produces control systems for the "Flamingo" and Fire Point missiles, according to the Russian Defense Ministry of Russia

In addition, the following were destroyed:
▪️The "Atlon Avia" factory, which produces drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
▪️The main production base of the "Antonov" state enterprise;
▪️The missile assembly and detail factory;
▪️The "Chaika" transport and logistics center, where UAVs and ammunition were stored;
▪️The "Grandterminal" fuel storage facility, which provided diesel fuel supplies;
▪️Gas distribution stations in Kiev and the Kiev region.

[Tintin]

Posted by Tintin (here)
A brief summary from Olga Bazova (source: https://x.com/OlgaBazova/status/2072591614619369903 ) which will account for much of the incendiary activity witnessed:

_____________________

The Russian Armed Forces struck the "Radioniks" factory in Kiev, which produces control systems for the "Flamingo" and Fire Point missiles, according to the Russian Defense Ministry of Russia

In addition, the following were destroyed:
▪️The "Atlon Avia" factory, which produces drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
▪️The main production base of the "Antonov" state enterprise;
▪️The missile assembly and detail factory;
▪️The "Chaika" transport and logistics center, where UAVs and ammunition were stored;
▪️The "Grandterminal" fuel storage facility, which provided diesel fuel supplies;
▪️Gas distribution stations in Kiev and the Kiev region.

Here's what we think may be the Atlon AVIA drone factory captured by a passing motorist:

[Ewan]

Posted by Tintin (here)

Posted by Tintin (here)
A brief summary from Olga Bazova (source: https://x.com/OlgaBazova/status/2072591614619369903 ) which will account for much of the incendiary activity witnessed:

_____________________

The Russian Armed Forces struck the "Radioniks" factory in Kiev, which produces control systems for the "Flamingo" and Fire Point missiles, according to the Russian Defense Ministry of Russia

In addition, the following were destroyed:
▪️The "Atlon Avia" factory, which produces drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
▪️The main production base of the "Antonov" state enterprise;
▪️The missile assembly and detail factory;
▪️The "Chaika" transport and logistics center, where UAVs and ammunition were stored;
▪️The "Grandterminal" fuel storage facility, which provided diesel fuel supplies;
▪️Gas distribution stations in Kiev and the Kiev region.

Here's what we think may be the Atlon AVIA drone factory captured by a passing motorist:

I don't meant to be flippant, but I wonder if the guys windscreen looked like that before the explosion!

[Jaak]

Interesting if true. Russia needs around 110 000 tons of gasoline for civilians daily and around 40 000 tons for military .
Not sure how true are those numbers . If somebody can find some more correct ones it would be helpful.

AI gave this answer -
Russia’s daily gasoline production has fallen approximately 25% year-on-year due to sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on refining infrastructure.

Current Output: Average daily production dropped to 765,000 barrels (approx. 121,000 cubic meters) in late June 2026, compared to a year ago.
Production Gap: This output is roughly 20% below domestic demand, creating a daily deficit of approximately 25,000 metric tons.
Historical Context: Prior to the 2025–2026 crisis, data indicated production levels around 909,910 barrels per day (2014 data) or 1.03 million barrels per day (mid-2025 baseline).
Key Disruptions: The Moscow oil refinery, which supplied 40% of the capital's gasoline, is out of service until the end of 2026, significantly exacerbating regional shortages.

Total Military Consumption (2022 Estimate): An analyst from Aperio Intelligence estimated total military fuel consumption at approximately 15 million liters per day in May 2022, with about a quarter of that volume attributed to jet fuel for air operations.
Drone-Specific Gasoline Usage (2026 Data): In May 2026, the Russian military consumed approximately 545,000 liters of gasoline over 26 days to fuel long-range Shahed (Geran-2) and Gerbera drones, averaging roughly 20,900 liters per day for these specific aerial attacks.
Current Supply Constraints: As of mid-2026, Energy Intelligence experts noted that gasoline production had fallen by 25% to 85,000 metric tons per day, which is below the summer demand of 110,000 metric tons, leading to severe domestic shortages and rationing in regions like Moscow and Crimea.

War machine either has to slow down or to keep the war going at same pace civilians will not get the amount of gasoline they need.
Putin might have to choose soon which ones will get the gasoline needed , military or civilians or short them both to balance things and create some unhappiness in both of them.
If this keeps dragging on a long time the civilians might start to riot. If they cant get to work and food aint reaching to shops it aint something to be happy about. Add to that growing censorship and the rise of cost of living.
Will things evolve that far ? Hope not but if certain claims are true then it might happen in near future.
And if Ukraine keeps taking out more refineries the situation will get worse.

Gerashchenko is very pro ukrainian so it could be ukrainian propaganda. But interesting if true.

Russians themselves are talking about the absurdity of the situation where gasoline is being supplied to Russia from India.

Here is what they are writing:

"The Logistics of the Absurd: From the Wellhead to the Gas Station via the Indian Ocean

We are witnessing the birth of a new economic reality that can safely be called 'the cycle of enriching the Indian refining sector at the expense of the Russian budget and the patience of its citizens.'

Look at the elegant business scheme that is emerging. We pump crude oil to India. A lot of it, in record volumes, sometimes up to 2.7 million barrels per day. We pump it, naturally, with that legendary steep discount that has already become legendary. We spent so long talking about the 'invisible hand of the market' and how the West was freezing without our energy resources that we failed to notice how that very hand quietly slipped into our pocket and carefully pulled out the margin. Our Indian partners are polite, patient people; they aren't twisting our arms.

Next, the Indian refineries, having received our raw material at a discount, perform a magical act apparently unique to high-tech Asian industry: they refine the oil into gasoline. The magic here is that, at the output stage, we buy this very gasoline back. Except the discount, like Cinderella after midnight, somehow vanishes, and the fuel turns into a commodity priced at full global market rates.

This isn't even toll refining in its pure form. This is a situation where we are subsidizing Indian GDP twice: first by selling resources at a discount, and then by paying global market prices for the finished product. In essence, we have paid for the Indian plants' worker wages, their electricity, and their capacity upgrades—and now we are writing them a service bonus on top of that.

The logistical tap-dancing deserves a special mention. Previously, the delivery distance from a refinery to a gas station in, say, Krasnodar was a few hundred kilometers via pipeline. Now, the route looks like this: Russian oil sails to India, circumnavigating half the globe, turns into gasoline there, is loaded into tankers, and is shipped back around Asia through the Suez Canal (or, even worse, around Africa) to Russian ports. Freight, insurance, wages for Indian oil workers—all of this is baked into that very 'global' price tag that our people pay at the pump. And, naturally, such gasoline cannot cost the previous 60–70 rubles; 120–150 is more like it.

And now for the best part—the numbers. 60,000 tons have already been shipped, and the plan is to reach regular monthly imports of 400,000 tons. Meanwhile, Russia's daily consumption in the summer is 110,000 tons. You don't need to be the Minister of Energy to understand how massive the hole in the supply balance is.

We are used to slogans about technological sovereignty and being a great energy superpower. But in this situation, we look more like a wealthy but clueless landlord who sells grain to a merchant for pennies, and then buys bread from that same merchant for outrageous money because his own bakery somehow isn't working."

On a personal note, I would add: you will pay the price, but there are absolutely no guarantees that the gasoline on those tankers will actually arrive!

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Jaak (here)
Interesting if true. Russia needs around 110 000 tons of gasoline for civilians daily and around 40 000 tons for military .
Not sure how true are those numbers . If somebody can find some more correct ones it would be helpful.

AI gave this answer -
[ ... ]

After reading your post, I was inspired to try this experiment. I asked Google:

Is Russia winning the war in Ukraine?

AI answered:

No, Russia is not currently winning the war in Ukraine. Despite holding the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have suffered catastrophic casualties—estimated at over 1.4 million since the 2022 invasion—and their territorial advances have slowed to a near halt.

So then I asked:

Can Ukraine still win the war against Russia?

AI answered:

Yes, Ukraine can win the war against Russia, as the trajectory of the conflict has steadily shifted in Ukraine's favor.

~~~

This is why I don't use AI.



A reminder to us all, self included! AI is almost 100% dependent on online mainstream sources for its data, and has zero direct access to any real-world experience or information.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
After reading your post, I was inspired to try this experiment. I asked Google:

Is Russia winning the war in Ukraine?

AI answered:

No, Russia is not currently winning the war in Ukraine. ...

So then I asked:

Can Ukraine still win the war against Russia?

AI answered:

Yes, Ukraine can win the war against Russia ...

~~~

This is why I don't use AI.

A reminder to us all, self included! AI is almost 100% dependent on online mainstream sources for its data, and has zero direct access to any real-world experience or information.

For topics widely covered by online mainstream sources, yes. Those sources are usually bought and paid for, one way or another.

For less mainstream topics, where most of what the AI training bots can find to read is by geeks in that particular subject, most AI models are still mostly limited by what they can read, but that material generally has higher quality (less often totally sucks).

For topics where AI can not just read, but actually "do", as in writing software, and then testing that software, and then looping until it gets it to work, and in which the rapidly expanding array of technologies and solutions far exceeds what any mere mortal human I know can hold in their heads and be fluent in using, the higher end AI models are now exceeding humans in such mental tasks.

The challenge with AI, as with guns, books, planes, and so much else, is not in the technology itself, but in whether common people get to use them liberally, or wanna-be tyrants gain monopoly control of their use, to impose their will.