Turmoil in Ethiopia

[Ravenlocke]

MenchOsint

Interesting development in Ethiopia (which is currently controlled by a pro-Israel/UAE regime)

Serving as a UAE-supplied weapons' hub for the RSF militia in Sudan, things could change quickly in the East African country.

**Tigrayan forces oppose the UAE-backed RSF militia.

https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2102666520908149012

[Ravenlocke]

Al Jazeera Breaking News

Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie warned the UN General Assembly of “forces of destruction and mayhem” as Tigray rebels joined other rebel groups to seize airports and target government positions in northern Ethiopia, triggering fears of a renewed civil war

https://x.com/AJENews/status/2102860148125413398

[Ravenlocke]

khaled mahmoued

The U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia has confirmed reports that Tigray forces have taken control of the airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire, and warned U.S. citizens against traveling to Tigray and Afar.

According to the latest developments on the ground, the Tigray Defense Forces have made significant advances in northern Ethiopia, with reports that they have seized control of the three airports, while fighting has spread to areas of the Afar and Amhara regions.

The developments reflect an expansion of the confrontation with government forces, although they do not, at this stage, indicate the collapse of the Ethiopian military or the loss of its control over the region as a whole.

https://x.com/khaledmahmoued1/status...25240388587755

[Ravenlocke]

FL360aero

AVIATION & SECURITY ALERT: Ethiopian Airlines Suspends Flights to Tigray Region Following Airport Takeover

✈️ Operational Impact:

• Ethiopian Airlines has officially halted all scheduled operations to key airports in northern Ethiopia, including Mekelle (MQX), Axum (AXU), and Shire (SHC).

• The operational halt follows reports from local residents and security officials confirming that Tigrayan forces seized control of Alula Aba Nega Airport (MQX) in Mekelle overnight from federal police forces.

⚠️ Context & Strategic Significance:

• Security Escalation: The airport takeover comes just days after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) announced a new alliance with six other armed groups across Ethiopia aimed at removing the federal government.

• Fragile Peace at Risk: The situation raises severe concerns about the collapse of the 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement, which formally ended a two-year conflict (2020–2022) that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

🔍 Travel Advisory: Passengers traveling to or within northern Ethiopia are advised to check directly with Ethiopian Airlines for itinerary updates, as no timeline for operational resumption has been established.

#AviationNews #Mekelle #FlightDisruption #AviationSafety

https://x.com/fl360aero/status/2102747266469580800

[Ravenlocke]

Ataf Mohamed عطاف محمد

Sep 20
Translated from Arabic
🚨 7 Armed Factions Unite to Topple Abiy Ahmed's Regime in Ethiopia

💥 Seven opposition groups and armed factions from various regions and ethnicities in Ethiopia have announced the formation of a unified front under the name (Ethiopian Forces Alliance for Survival). This marks an unprecedented step that transcends historical disputes and bloody armed conflicts between Ethiopia's components.

🎯 The alliance's goal is clear and direct: to overthrow the Prosperity Party government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transitional administration to manage the country's affairs.

💥 Who does this broad alliance comprise? A heavy military and political bloc covering most of Ethiopia's geography (Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz) and they are:
🎯 Fano Movement (Amhara Region)
🎯 Oromo Liberation Army
🎯 Tigray People's Liberation Front
🎯 Ogaden National Liberation Front
🎯 Afar Unified National Revolutionary Front
🎯 Benishangul People's Liberation Movement
🎯 Gumuz People's Democratic Movement

💥 These forces have succeeded in setting aside national differences and previous armed clashes to agree on a single goal: that the continuation of the federal government's policies poses an existential threat to Ethiopia.

🚨The new alliance holds Abiy Ahmed's government fully responsible for the comprehensive security breakdown, the expansion of civil wars, the worsening of humanitarian crises and poverty, and the sharp decline in rights, freedoms, and the rule of law.

https://x.com/atafmohamed3/status/2101780110097674399

[Ravenlocke]

Sovereign Media

Long-standing tensions in northern Ethiopia have reignited into open warfare as Tigrayan rebels seized control of key regional airports and clashed with federal troops in the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions.

According to Getachew Reda, an adviser to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has “launched an all-out offensive against government positions in Afar and Amhara”.

However, Tigray’s regional government said that its fighters have entered a “defensive war” against federal troops.

The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Ahmed took office in 2018.

Ethiopian Airlines confirmed the suspension of flights to airports in Mekelle, Shire, and Axum “due to the current situation”.

The renewed hostilities threaten to unravel the Pretoria Peace Agreement, which ended a war that lasted from 2020 to 2022 that the African Union estimates claimed 600,000 lives.

While an uneasy calm persisted following the accord, clashes resumed late last year.

The escalation comes following a major announcement three days earlier when the TPLF joined a seven-group military alliance named the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival aiming to overthrow Abiy Ahmed.

The alliance includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, a coalition of factions which since 2023 has fought federal forces in Amhara region - the region which was the historic core of the Ethiopian Empire, providing its ruling dynasties and official language.

The coalition also includes the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which since 2018 has fought federal forces in Oromia, the region that Abiy Ahmed is from.

Four smaller groups – the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo), the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement – comprise the remainder.

As multiple insurgencies challenge Addis Ababa on several fronts, the latest territorial seizures and airport closures have heightened fears of a full-scale return to nationwide conflict

https://x.com/sov_media/status/2103175294253224204

[Ravenlocke]

Addis Standard

News: #Ethiopia army chief accuses foreign powers of ‘pushing, supporting and supplying’ new armed alliance

Birhanu said Ethiopia's current security challenges were part of a broader strategy by what he described as the country's “historical” and “contemporary” adversaries, who, he alleged, were no longer capable of confronting Ethiopia through direct military invasion.

He alleged that Eritrea, which he referred to as “Shaebia,” acts as an intermediary between external powers and armed groups inside Ethiopia, claiming that the TPLF and Eritrea could not independently confront the federal government.

“Neither #Shaebia nor the #TPLF can achieve anything alone - even if combined - unless pushed, supported, and supplied by #Sudan, #Egypt, and powers beyond,” Birhanu said.

https://addisstandard.com/?p=59642

https://x.com/addisstandard/status/2103520255351869442

[Ravenlocke]

ACLED

Violence continues in Ethiopia’s #Tigray —and former enemies are now fighting together.

@CNN
draws on ACLED data showing this week’s escalation follows nearly 2 months of smaller clashes, after fighting between Tigrayan & federal forces began near Sudan’s border on 1 Aug.

https://x.com/ACLEDINFO/status/2103446998967853280

ACLED

There are two things to keep an eye on in #Ethiopia.

First, the TPLF is now allied with Eritrea, raising concerns over access to arms. Second, the Red Sea sits in the background of what is happening, with Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia all part of a wider contest over control in the area.


https://x.com/ACLEDINFO/status/2103506688183599556

ACLED

Northern Ethiopia’s war is opening on multiple fronts. Clashes have spread across the Tigray-Amhara border, into Afar and towards western #Tigray, while repeated drone strikes have been reported across Tigray and north #Amhara. More: https://bit.ly/46FQ32H

https://x.com/ACLEDINFO/status/2103545065326985218

[Ravenlocke]

Ataf Mohamed عطاف محمد

Translated from Arabic
🚨 Abiy Ahmed's regime cuts off communications services in the Tigray region.. and the armed opposition is turning to Starlink service

💥 Abiy Ahmed's regime has suspended communications services in the Tigray region, coinciding with the outbreak of widespread military confrontations.

🎯 Ethio Telecom has halted communications in the Tigray region. Ethio Telecom and Safaricom are the two companies providing communications services in the region, with Safaricom's services also experiencing near-total disruption.
💥 The armed opposition (TPLF) is currently turning to satellite internet service via Starlink.

🎯 It is recalled that during the previous war that broke out between the Tigray regional forces and the federal forces in Ethiopia in 2020, the region's communications remained cut off for more than two years

https://x.com/atafmohamed3/status/2103522077487534159

[Ravenlocke]

EritreanPost 🇪🇷🇸🇴🇩🇯🇸🇩🇪🇬
@eritrean_post
Sudan 🇸🇩 could cut Ethiopia’s Lifeline to the RSF terrorists by Backing Ethiopia’s Opposition

Ethiopia arms, trains, and funds the RSF terrorists . Together with the RSF, it has enabled drone strikes on Sudan.

Sudan should therefore take this opportunity to supply money, fuel, and arms to all members of the Ethiopian opposition alliance of survival: Fano, TPLF, OLA, Afar fighters, ONLF, Gumuz fighters, Benishangul fighters, and the Sidama SNLF.

Sudan needs to cut the RSF supply chain from Ethiopia by keeping Ethiopia busy with war inside its own country.

Ethiopian ruler Abiy Ahmed might then be overthrown by that opposition alliance.

Without Ethiopia’s support, the RSF would have lost the war two years ago. Today they have a Blue Nile front because of Ethiopia and because of Ethiopian and UAE money, training, weapons, and logistical support.

Removing the Ethiopian threat would remove the threat posed by the RSF.
@sudan_war

@SudanTrends

@SudanTribune_EN

@SudaneseEcho

@SUNA_AGENCY

@waladkosti

@MohanadElbalal

@BoulisiYousuf

@AligidirEritrea

@EGYOSINT

https://x.com/eritrean_post/status/2103562876363628731

[Ravenlocke]

MFA Russia 🇷🇺

🎙 #Zakharova on the escalation in Northern Ethiopia:

❗️ We call on the parties to observe the ceasefire & strictly comply with existing settlement agreements.

We urge external actors to refrain from interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs.

https://t.me/MFARussia/32384

https://x.com/mfa_russia/status/2103825762658979861

[Ravenlocke]

Néstor Siurana

Translated from Spanish
Ethiopia is in a very complicated situation.

It has entered into war against a coalition of armed groups opposed to the Government.

But let's analyze its geographical position: its borders are not friendly and it is cornered 👇🏽

Relations with Sudan and Eritrea, the two countries with which it shares its longest borders, are very bad. There is even talk of a threat of regional conflict against Eritrea itself.

Somalia is also very unhappy, because Addis Ababa backs the separatist region of Somaliland. All for the sake of securing commercial ports.

As for Egypt, better not to go there. The dams and especially the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which threatens to reduce the flow of the Nile River, the great trigger of a diplomatic relationship at rock bottom.

Djibouti is the only neighbor with which Ethiopia does not have a real dispute and the situation is neutral, but fighting near the border could easily destabilize that front as well.

With Kenya and South Sudan, everything is fine. Although they coexist with local tensions over water resources and pastures, the dominant approach among the three governments is mutual cooperation.

Ethiopia is in a very complicated situation at the geopolitical level, cornered by many border points.

The outcome of the war also needs to be analyzed from this perspective.

https://x.com/NestorSiurana/status/2104993967234253289

[Ravenlocke]

Néstor Siurana

Translated from Spanish
🔴 IMPORTANT - The Horn of Africa is changing.

Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia are meeting today at a summit at the Africa Business Forum in Alamein, Egypt.

These 4 countries have strengthened their cooperation and are coordinating more and more against Ethiopia and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan.

The rapprochement and synchronization of these countries has grown at an accelerated pace and responds to a common strategic front in the face of Ethiopia's policies and the actions of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The alignment is based on the fact that tensions have reached a critical point following the recent breakdown of diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, compounded by the mutual expulsion of diplomats between Cairo and Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia has formally accused this bloc of supporting insurgent alliances in its territory (such as the Tigray People's Liberation Front, TPLF), an accusation that the four countries deny while exerting joint pressure on the Ethiopian Government.

Egypt maintains its historic outright rejection of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). At the same time, Somalia and Eritrea view with deep alarm Ethiopia's attempts to secure sovereign access to the Red Sea through its controversial pact with the self-proclaimed Somaliland.

The leader of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, General al-Burhan, has joined this defensive bloc due to allegations that Ethiopia is allowing and facilitating operations of the RSF paramilitary forces (rivals of the regular Sudanese army) from its border territory.

The Horn of Africa is heating up. Today's meeting in Alamein formally consolidates a new balance of power in the Horn of Africa, seeking to isolate Addis Ababa's ambitions and coordinate the security of the strategic Red Sea

https://x.com/NestorSiurana/status/2106803035150114884

[Ravenlocke]

Néstor Siurana

Translated from Spanish
🇪🇹 Ethiopia is in Civil War.

Its political and ethnic map reflects one of the most complex and fragmented geopolitical scenarios in the entire world.

Many people, when they start studying it, find it complicated due to the number of actors involved.

I'll try to explain it to you in a simple way:

Historically established under a model of ethnic federalism implemented in the 1990s, the country is divided into regions largely delimited by the identities of their majority populations.

This system, originally designed to grant autonomy to the various nationalities after the fall of the military regime of the Derg, has in practice exacerbated territorial tensions and ethnic-based nationalism, turning internal borders into constant front lines.

The root of the recent instability lies in the struggle for control of central power and the redefinition of the Ethiopian state.

For nearly three decades, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) dominated the national ruling coalition.

The rise to power of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018 marked a shift toward centralization and the creation of the Prosperity Party, which marginalized the Tigrayan political elite and raised alarms in various regions fearing the loss of their autonomy.

This fracture culminated in the devastating civil conflict centered in the Tigray region starting in 2020, which involved not only the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and the federal army, but also troops from neighboring Eritrea and militias from the adjacent Amhara region.

As the image illustrates, militarization is not limited to a single region, but extends across the entire national territory through a dense network of insurgencies and local paramilitary forces:

• Tigray and the North: Forces associated with the TPLF and their local militias maintain a deeply rooted political and military identity due to years of open war and blockades.

• Amhara and Afar: Regions neighboring Tigray that were drawn into historical territorial disputes (such as the Welkait and Raya districts).

Armed groups like the Fano militias in Amhara, initially allies of the federal government against Tigray, later developed their own agendas and insurrections against Addis Ababa in opposition to disarmament and peace agreements.

• Oromia: The country's most populous region hosts the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), an insurgency fighting the central government by denouncing the historical marginalization of the Oromo people, despite the prime minister himself belonging to this ethnic group.

• Western and Eastern Peripheries: Areas like Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambela suffer from chronic outbreaks of interethnic violence due to disputes over resources and land between local communities and displaced populations.

In the east, the Somali region grapples with the historical presence of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the complex dynamics of border clans.

The fluid and ever-changing nature of these alliances (where yesterday's enemies become today's circumstantial partners) makes the Ethiopian conflict extremely difficult to resolve through purely military means.

Each region operates under an ecosystem of community militias and self-defense forces that respond to local grievances, distrust of the central government, and neighborly tensions.

Consequently, Ethiopia's map not only delineates administrative borders, but represents a mosaic of fragmented sovereignties where lasting peace depends on an inclusive dialogue that reconciles ethnic diversity with Ethiopia's institutional stability.

https://x.com/NestorSiurana/status/2107469632177123379

[Ravenlocke]

Néstor Siurana

Translated from Spanish
The air bridge between the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia continues.

Heavy military traffic following Eritrea's entry into the war.

Cargo planes fly from Al Reef Base to Bole Airport, Ethiopia.

From Addis Ababa, logistics are moved toward the front.

https://x.com/NestorSiurana/status/2108138357465174483

[Ravenlocke]

Néstor Siurana

Translated from Spanish
Drums of a great war are sounding in the Horn of Africa.

This is how Eritrea is massing its soldiers near the border with Ethiopia.

Silence in the media that is truly terrifying.

In 2022, 600,000 people died in this same conflict and nothing was said about it.

It seems strange but yes, Eritrea would have launched a military incursion into Ethiopia. It would seek to create a buffer zone.

Local residents have confirmed that uniformed Eritrean soldiers, equipped with heavy weapons, have crossed the border and advanced deep into Tigray, moving through major cities like Adigrat.

Witnesses have reported to the BBC and Al Jazeera that they saw dozens of uniformed Eritrean troops advancing along strategic roads in Tigray, positioning themselves exactly in the areas where the Ethiopian army has been fighting against the new coalition of armed rebels.

The Ethiopian Army has already responded, attacking Eritrean military convoys with drones. And shooting down some of them.

Experts confirm that the Ethiopian federal army has carried out drone strikes against vehicles transporting Eritrean soldiers in the Guada area, after they crossed the border through Zelambessa heading south. Residents of Edaga Hamus also reported witnessing these aerial attacks against the Eritrean troops.

The seizures of weapons and ammunition are one of the central pillars of Ethiopia's accusations against Eritrea.

Ethiopia's federal police publicly confirmed the interception of thousands of ammunition cartridges and weapons shipments allegedly sent clandestinely by the Eritrean government, according to reports from Ethiopian authorities.

The trend is that the fighting will intensify and that the two countries will be at large-scale war within weeks.

Eritrea knows that Ethiopian troops are performing well against the rebel alliance. It has ordered Tigray forces to withdraw to more protected areas while mobilizing its own army to support the rebels.

Eritrea is convinced that a victory over the rebels would put Ethiopia on the path to an invasion aimed at securing its own access to the sea.

The latter is the most important thing and the main underlying reason.

Let's stay very attentive to the situation.

https://x.com/NestorSiurana/status/2108162831547863307

[Ravenlocke]

The Cradle

Oct 2
Ethiopia, Eritrea sever ties following drone strike on Addis Ababa

https://x.com/TheCradleMedia/status/2106115876600590725

https://thecradle.co/articles-id/40318

Ethiopia, Eritrea sever ties following drone strike on Addis Ababa
With Israeli and UAE backing, Ethiopia is seeking access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory


Ethiopia cut diplomatic ties with Eritrea on 2 October, one day after a drone strike targeted the defense ministry in the Ethiopian capital.

Ethiopian authorities expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed their embassy in Eritrea's capital, Asmara, after the strike.

AFP reported that an explosion rocked the Ethiopian National Defense Force headquarters in the Tor Hayloch area of Addis Ababa on Thursday.

Rebel groups fighting the Ethiopian government in the northern Tigray region took credit for the drone strike.

Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of supporting the rebels, including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

In a statement, Ethiopia accused Eritrea of engaging in "direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence" against it.

Eritrea denied the accusation, saying in response it was severing all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia and accusing it of arming Eritrean opposition groups to topple the government in Asmara.

"In parallel with these aggressive intentions, Ethiopia has gone further to host, train, and provide arms to an assortment of what it calls 'Eritrean armed opposition groups' to stoke internal conflict for 'regime change' in Eritrea," Eritrea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

Tensions between the two East African nations have increased in recent months, with landlocked Ethiopia claiming parts of Eritrea's Red Sea coastline.

"[Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed] has a two-waters strategy like Israel. Only for him it is from the Nile River to the Red Sea," Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh told Middle East Eye last month, referring to Israel's effort to annex Palestinian territory in the occupied West Bank extending to the Jordan River.

Ethiopia lost direct access to the Red Sea when Eritrea became independent in 1993. Addis Ababa now relies overwhelmingly on ports in neighboring Djibouti for its international maritime trade.

Last month, Israeli ambassador Avraham Neguise publicly stated that Israel supports Ethiopia's effort to obtain access to the Red Sea. "Israel is behind Ethiopia in this effort. This is clear Israeli policy."

Israel is seeking to gain a foothold in areas of east Africa abutting the Red Sea in a bid to counter the influence of the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces, in particular over the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Israel has supported Ethiopia in its conflict with Eritrea in the past. In the 1970s and 1980s, Israel provided arms to Ethiopia's Marxist Derg government to help it battle Eritrean fighters.

The UAE, Israel's close ally in the region, is also a staunch supporter of Ethiopia. Abu Dhabi has provided drones and other military supplies to Abiy Ahmed's forces.

The UAE is pursuing "port imperialism" across Africa, Eritrean Foreign Minister Saleh added.

"The UAE has port facilities everywhere in the region, and African countries have to ask why. Is it just for economics? No."

The UAE's two port groups, DP World and AD Ports, control strategic ports in east Africa, including in Puntland, a semiautonomous region which only Israel recognizes as independent from Somalia.

The UAE has used its control of ports in the region to arm fighters from Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are accused of carrying out genocide during the Sudanese civil war.

[Ravenlocke]

Adding the following commentaries here in exploring pieces of the puzzle as to what is taking place between Ethiopia and Eritrea.


Sirak Bahlbi

There is absolutely NO rhyme or reason for #Eritrea to invade #Ethiopia. This is a blatant hoax designed by Abiy to fabricate a pretext for invading Eritrea’s sovereign territory.

Eritrea has not a single economic or political reason to invade Ethiopia.

On the other hand, Ethiopia not only has a motive to invade Eritrea, but Abiy Ahmed has openly declared his objective of securing sovereign sea access, by hook or by crook.

Whatever the outcome of Abiy’s adventure, it risks plunging the Horn of #Africa into an endless Armageddon of regional conflict.

The world needs to pay attention and act before it is too late.

https://x.com/SirakBahlbi/status/2108170085772779590

🇷🇺 Yuri Podolyaka

Oct 7
🚨 𝗪𝗔𝗥 𝗜𝗡 𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗧 𝗔𝗙𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗔: 𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗡 𝗔𝗥𝗠𝗬 𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗦 𝗘𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗢𝗣𝗜𝗔

Or rather, into the territory controlled by the rebellious Tigray forces, whose troops are retreating northward under pressure from government forces.

There is logic behind this. Eritrea fears that Ethiopia has decided to fight its way to the sea. In that case, it would be better to meet Ethiopian forces on Ethiopian territory, with the support of allies who have not yet been defeated — the Tigray forces. The chances of success would clearly be greater.

In practice, this is a full-scale invasion. And therefore, in effect, a new Eritrean-Ethiopian war has already begun, although legally it has not yet been declared.

https://t.me/yurasumy/29605?single

https://x.com/YuriPodolyaka/status/2107895504935792729

Abdirashid Hashi

🇪🇹
To Our Ethiopian Neighbours: War Is Not the Answer

As I said during the last Tigray war, my message to our Ethiopian neighbours is simple: Please stop the war. You will eventually stop it anyway, but only after tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, have died.

The last war was horrific.
@AbiyAhmedAli
and
@reda_getachew
were on opposing sides, with Isaias Afwerki backing Abiy. Now Getachew is with Abiy, while Isaias is aligned with his former Tigrayan enemies. If anything captures the futility of war, this does.

We Somalis went down that rabbit hole, and 40 years later, we are still trying to get out. Ethiopian governments spent much of that time arming our clan rebels and warlords and interfering in our affairs. Some Somalis may now wish Ethiopia the same fate. I am not one of them. I am a patriotic Somali who wishes Ethiopia, Eritrea and all our neighbours peace and prosperity.

Ethiopia’s problems are political and require political solutions. Abiy will not subdue the Amhara, Tigrayan and Oromo rebellions through force alone.

Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, the US, AU and UN have spent nearly two decades trying to defeat Al-Shabaab militarily, yet the conflict persists. Israel has not subdued the Palestinians, the US has not subdued Iran, and Russia has not subdued Ukraine.

Even the most powerful armies cannot simply bomb political and communal grievances out of existence. Sooner or later, a political settlement becomes necessary.

If I were Abiy, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and a religious man, I would tell Ethiopians: Let us stop fighting, build a democratic federal country and learn to compete politically without killing one another. If my resignation would bring peace, I would be prepared to resign.

I would also assure Ethiopia’s neighbours that their ports and territorial waters are not coveted. Ethiopia already has sea access. Its persistent demands for sea ownership, however disguised, only alarm its neighbours and invite hostility.

It is largely Ethiopia’s political elites who have brought the country here. Ordinary Ethiopians would rather be farming their land, raising their families and working their way out of poverty.

As my Pakistani friends used to say whenever someone was doing something foolish: Please use your head.

And the buck stops with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Wars rarely settle political grievances. Even those who win wars eventually have to make peace with those they failed to destroy.

Why not make that peace now, before another futile war claims hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of Ethiopian and Eritrean lives and brings untold suffering to millions more?

https://x.com/AnalystSomalia/status/2108181502416638376

Al Jazeera English

Eritrean soldiers have reportedly been seen driving through northern Ethiopia. Eritrea denies that its troops have crossed the border town of Zelambessa.

Al Jazeera’s Malcolm Webb reports.


https://x.com/AJEnglish/status/2108142861254623631

Reuters Africa

Drone strikes targeted Eritrean forces deployed inside northern Ethiopia overnight, a conflict monitor said on Thursday, following an incursion that has brought the Horn of Africa neighbours closer to the brink of outright war.

https://x.com/ReutersAfrica/status/2108263774801039534

[Ravenlocke]

EritreanPost 🇪🇷🇸🇴🇩🇯🇸🇩🇪🇬

Be aware of conflict entrepreneurs like ACLED:

@ACLEDINFO
report of an unverified Eritrean incursion into Ethiopia is not factually correct: it is led by former Ethiopian 🇪🇹 government lawyer Jalale Getachew, cites no satellite imagery, claims the Ethiopian Air Force hit the Eritrean army,

even the American think tank Critical Threats denied these claims, citing no satellite imagery

The 7 October alert is led by Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru, a former Ethiopian government lawyer who worked as a public prosecutor and attaché in Ethiopia. She is not an independent researcher.

She cites no satellite imagery and names no sources.¹

She claims Eritrean forces crossed at Zalambessa and that Ethiopian drones hit Eritrean troops at Guada.²

The Associated Press said it could not verify the account and that ACLED had not explained its basis.³

The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats project said it could not confirm reports of Eritrean forces entering Tigray: its review of satellite imagery from 3 October found no evidence of deployments.⁴
Footnotes

1ACLED staff profile, Jalale Getachew Birru: public prosecutor in Ethiopia, then attaché. 40
2Her 7 October statement, quoted by Martin Plaut: she said ENDF drones targeted Eritrean troops at Guada, inside Ethiopia, not a strike inside Eritrea. She named no source and cited no satellite imagery. 1
3Associated Press: account not independently verified; ACLED did not answer on its sources. 4
4Critical Threats, Ethiopia War Security Review, 6 October 2026: satellite imagery from 3 October showed no confirmed Eritrean deployments.
@shabait

@UN

@Eritrea_UN

@DanielTeklai_ER

@hornafricanguy

@Ternafi

@Yonijoni3

@addisstandard

@criticalthreats

@saayEritrea

@hgdefK

@KingBejaKingdom

@AbdiwahabSheik7

@PIBFactCheck

https://x.com/eritrean_post/status/2108204617452429610

[Ernie Nemeth]

Where is the Liberal die-hard fanatics talking about Ethiopia's legit claim to the entire Eritrean possession? It is their land, stolen by Eritria, who has been at war for decades to found their own nation, carved out of Ethiopia's territory.

You see, Ethiopia is Christian. That is why the conflict continues. It is always the same struggle. Islam against Christians and the Jews.