El Niño phenomenon 2026

[Casey Claar]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
Ryan Hall, Y’all

Los Angeles is about to feel worse than Miami.

Wednesday, downtown LA is forecast to feel like 116. Burbank 117. Long Beach 106.

Miami that same afternoon: 108.

The moisture is left over from a hurricane, and the ocean breeze that normally saves LA is shut off. Nights only drop to the mid 70s.

If you're in Southern California without AC, this is the week to find some.

The bottom (southern part) of the state (of California) is generally the hottest, relative to LA, anyway. We have had a dreadfully hot 3 days here in San Diego. The "feels like" temperature is a bit of a joke, in that IT IS ACTUALLY THAT HOT AND OFTEN HOTTER. While the weather apps say what they do, it is in truth much hotter than they say through the summer months. Our weather apps here were saying it would be 98 degrees, but, in actuality, which can be seen via car thermometers when out driving it was upwards of 113 degrees in East County. I am happy to report the temperature should begin coming back down today, ( whew!! ).



P.s.~ I should note that until these 3 days this Summer has been quite temperate and pleasant **cooler than I would say has been more normal the past 8 years.

[Ravenlocke]

Ryan Hall, Y’all

The ocean off Baja has never been this warm.

85 degrees on Monday, in water that should be 70 this time of year.

45 years of satellite records. The old record was 81.

That water is why Los Angeles felt like 108 on Wednesday. Warm ocean, more humidity, and Marie pulled it all north.

It was still 84 on Wednesday, the latest reading.

We are watching it

https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/2098486759705202851

[Johnnycomelately]

Some good news, about this ‘26 El Niňo. Atlantic hurricanes are historically late to start this year, and they should be weaker than normal.

Quote is entire, paras abt E-Niñ, at the end, are bolded.

Here is the last paragraph, which I note for the understated way it blames this phenomenon on humans. It doesn’t even mention humans, or climate change, which is now synonymous with human caused climate change. IMO Ars Technica knows about the climate change scam, and are distancing themselves from it while paying dues to the controllers of this current public official narrative. Gotta stay in business. I wish them well.

And then there is El Niño’s impact on global temperatures, which often lags the phenomenon by several months. This would set up peak heating next summer. Almost assuredly, 2027 will be the planet’s hottest year on record, and summer in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to be brutal for large chunks of the planet.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2026...eve-ever-seen/


This Atlantic hurricane season is about to do something that hasn’t happened in 175 years

But there may be a price to pay for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season.

ERIC BERGER – SEP 15, 2026

Last week, the Atlantic hurricane season blew through its traditional peak—which comes around September 10—with nary a tropical wave in sight, let alone a storm or hurricane.

This is remarkable. Usually this is the time of year when sea surface temperatures reach their warmest in the tropics, and with a favorable atmosphere it should be smooth skating for tropical systems. But this year, the main region where most tropical systems develop is choked with Saharan dust and wind shear.

No one is complaining. Landfalling hurricanes are incredibly destructive for coastal areas and have the potential for considerable inland rainfall. Even storms at sea, in the Gulf of Mexico, can send energy prices skyrocketing—the last thing needed this year.

This has never happened

Nevertheless, the quietude is historic.

Beginning in 1944, the United States began monitoring the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, and northern Atlantic Ocean, with aircraft to detect hurricanes. Dating back to 1944, a hurricane had formed every year by September 11. The latest “first” Atlantic hurricanes came in 2002, with Gustav, and in 2013, with Humberto on this date.

Atlantic hurricane records officially go back to 1851, although older records are less reliable because observations of storms developing at sea were reliant on reports from shipping vessels. So some storms were missed. If we extend the hurricane record all the way back to 1851, every year still records at least one Atlantic hurricane. But in 1941, the first hurricane did not form until September 17. This is the date of the latest first Atlantic hurricane on record.


I’m here to tell you that the Atlantic will not produce a hurricane by the end of Thursday. The National Hurricane Center is presently monitoring a single disturbance in the Atlantic, but it gives this system a “near zero” percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next two days. The likelihood of it ever becoming a hurricane is low.


The Atlantic season still has some runway left—it often produces hurricanes in October and officially runs to the end of November—so it remains too early to predict the possibility of an Atlantic season without a hurricane. But the odds are rising, and that would be historic.

By other measures, this season is also extraordinarily quiet. A common metric used to gauge overall activity during a season is “accumulated cyclone energy.” For data back to 1950, this year’s accumulated cyclone energy ranks 77th out of 77 years, with a value of just 7 percent of normal levels racked up by five relatively weak tropical storms.

Take the good with the bad

So what’s going on out there? The short answer is that a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has put the kibosh on the main development region of the Atlantic this year. The El Niño anomaly this summer, nearly 3° C above baseline in the Pacific, is stronger than any observed at this time of year in the modern record. This generally produces hostile wind shear levels over the Atlantic, and that has been measured this year.

This clearly is having some benefit in the tropical Atlantic, in the form of fewer tropical systems this year. But on balance, El Niño will probably be far more disruptive than beneficial when it peaks this fall and winter, with diminished rains already impacting travel through the Panama Canal and possibly leading to poor rice harvests in Asia and famine elsewhere.

And then there is El Niño’s impact on global temperatures, which often lags the phenomenon by several months. This would set up peak heating next summer. Almost assuredly, 2027 will be the planet’s hottest year on record, and summer in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to be brutal for large chunks of the planet.

[Ravenlocke]

Ryan Hall, Y’all

Hurricane Polo is now one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere.

Hurricane Hunters just measured 180 mph winds and a pressure of 892 mb.

Only three hurricanes on record in the Western Hemisphere have ever had a lower pressure: Patricia, Wilma and Gilbert.

That puts Polo alongside the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, one of the most extreme hurricanes ever measured.

The core should stay just offshore, but Mexico’s coast will still get dangerous wind, huge surf and flooding rain through Thursday.

https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/2102489208866623772

Matt Devitt
NEW: Category 5 Hurricane #Polo is now the 2nd-most intense Pacific hurricane on record by lowest pressure. Comparable to Atlantic storms Melissa (2025) and the Labor Day Hurricane (1935). Wind currently at 180 mph. An absolute beast.

https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/2102501689185939768

[Ravenlocke]

Addis Standard

Sep 22
#El_Niño crop losses in #Horn_of_Africa add to global wheat supply squeeze as prices surge 43%

El Niño-driven drought and erratic rainfall are worsening crop prospects across parts of the Horn of Africa, including #Ethiopia, as global wheat markets face a separate supply squeeze linked to weather disruptions and the #Russia-#Ukraine war. A European Commission agricultural monitoring assessment said El Niño has contributed to crop failures in East Africa, with heat and drought affecting agricultural zones in Ethiopia and Eritrea, while Somalia’s Gu season ended with below-average production.

The pressure comes as wheat prices have climbed sharply in 2026. Benchmark Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures and related indexes have gained roughly 43% since the start of the year, with wheat recently trading around multi-year highs. The rally has raised concerns about renewed food-price pressures in countries dependent on imported grain.

The global wheat market has been particularly affected by disruptions in the Black Sea, one of the world’s most important grain-exporting regions. Russia and Ukraine are major wheat suppliers, but attacks on ports, vessels and grain infrastructure have disrupted shipments. Reuters reported this week that Russian grain exporters have begun redirecting shipments to Baltic and Arctic ports after attacks disrupted Black Sea trade.

The disruption has also increased shipping risks and insurance costs. London’s marine insurance market recently expanded its high-risk designation to the entire Black Sea as attacks on commercial shipping intensified. The region is a major corridor for grain as well as energy commodities.

Bloomberg reported that combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for the July-September harvesting period could end up roughly half their level of a year earlier, underscoring the scale of the disruption.

Weather-related production problems are adding to the pressure. Drought and heat have affected crops in parts of the United States and Europe, while climate-related disruptions in other producing regions are tightening the balance between global wheat supply and demand.

For the Horn of Africa, the global price surge comes as countries are already dealing with domestic production risks. The European Commission’s August agricultural assessment found early-season dryness and heat stress affecting Ethiopia and Eritrea, while crop failures and below-average production were reported elsewhere in East Africa.

The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that developing El Niño conditions could intensify droughts and floods across Africa and other regions, placing millions of food-insecure people at risk through 2027. Ethiopia is among the countries identified as particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of climate and other shocks

https://x.com/addisstandard/status/2102347541652103308

[Ravenlocke]

FOX Weather

🌀‼️COLLISION COURSE?: Powerful Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys appear to be on a collision course, but a dramatic atmospheric showdown seems unlikely. Official forecasts show Odalys rapidly weakening as it approaches Polo's massive circulation, unraveling before the two storms can directly intercept

https://x.com/foxweather/status/2102808965193056615

[Ravenlocke]

Paul Romero

Translated from Spanish
Impressive the amount of hail accumulated in the underpass of Avenida Atahualpa, north of Quito.
It was necessary to mobilize heavy machinery to remove the blocks of ice more than one meter in size.
@EcuavisaInforma

https://x.com/mromerorivera/status/2107994910133514586

Primicias

Translated from Spanish
Quito is experiencing heavy rains accompanied by hail due to the arrival of the rainy season. The Inamhi warns that this is the impact generated by the El Niño phenomenon. https://ow.ly/LPz250ZW6fY


https://x.com/Primicias/status/2108308363612205090

Teleamazonas

Translated from Spanish
Quito is covered in white: rains with hail up to 35 cm thick and roof collapse at the EPN


https://x.com/teleamazonasec/status/2108075453390987484

Municipio de Quito

Translated from Spanish
🌧️ #Activados24Siete| In response to the rains recorded this Wednesday, October 7, the Municipality of Quito maintains its operational teams deployed to address emergencies in various sectors of the city.

👷🏽‍♂️ Our teams are clearing layers of up to 35cm of hail. EP EMSEGURIDAD, Bomberos Quito, EPMAPS, EPMMOP, AMT, Empresa Eléctrica Quito, Metro de Quito, and zonal administrations, all activated.

✅ The Metropolitan COE maintains permanent monitoring and inter-institutional coordination to address new reports and reduce risks during the coming hours.

📞 In case of an emergency, call 9-1-1.


https://x.com/MunicipioQuito/status/2107986583634706466

[Ravenlocke]

Polymarket Español

Translated from Spanish
🇨🇱 | NOW — Heavy rains cause severe flooding in Santiago, Chile.

In Las Condes, a mudflow swept away vehicles, trees, and a bus, while meteorological alerts continue.

https://x.com/polymarketenesp/status...04879588344169

Planet Report HQ

🟠 DEVELOPING: Severe flooding in Las Condes, Chile, has swept away multiple cars and pushed a public bus through the streets of San Carlos de Apoquindo.

Footage shows vehicles being carried by powerful torrents of water and mud.

Source: SENAPRED, BioBioChile, La Tercera

https://x.com/PlanetReportHQ/status/2108327004680401217

Rai Radio1

Translated from Italian
🔵In Chile, 14,000 families without electricity in the Santiago metropolitan area, 150 households evacuated in #Talagante due to the #flooding of the #Mapocho River caused by bad weather. 140 millimeters of rain fell in less than 24 hours. Damage and isolated homes; 1 victim.

https://x.com/Radio1Rai/status/2108098916616991231

https://x.com/CA3EHH/status/2107818908300300778

[Ravenlocke]

Today, October 13, in Chile, tornado, and hail storm


Red Geocientífica de Chile

Translated from Spanish
NOW - RM 🌪️ | Chile's Meteorological Directorate has preliminarily reported that the phenomenon that occurred at approximately 16:30 hours in the Estación Central commune corresponded to an EF-0 category tornado.

However, in audiovisual records like this one, no funnel cloud is observed nor a connection from the storm to the ground through a vortex, so it could also be a gustnado (gust front vortex) or a microburst.

The information is still preliminary and must be updated with studies.

©️ Video shared by the RedGeoChile community.

https://x.com/RedGeoChile/status/2110115381688098964

Geól. Sergio Almazán

Translated from Spanish
HAILSTORM IN CHILE
🇨🇱 🧊
Impressive hailstorm in Santiago de Chile.
Images from Metro República, downtown streets completely covered in white.

Red Alert in the RM due to storm, hail, rain, and flooding. #GranizoSantiago #AlertaRojaRM
Via
@ElInformante_CL


https://x.com/chematierra/status/2110116001324949678

[Ravenlocke]

In Brazil,

Geól. Sergio Almazán
@chematierra
·
Oct 12
Translated from Spanish
CAUTION
The Itaipú Dam opens its gates due to the intense rains.

Juan Ayoroa

Oct 12
Translated from Spanish
INFO🚨> The largest dam in South America and the 2nd largest in the world, Itaipu (Brazil-Paraguay),

located on the Paraná River about 25 km from the Triple Frontier, had to open its gates today (Videos 1 and 2).

> Additionally, Yacyretá also had to open its gates today and#RioParana#Misiones#Corrientes#EntreRios#ElNiño

https://x.com/chematierra/status/2109793462891708813

[Ravenlocke]

Mario Nawfal

🇧🇷🇦🇷 Iguazú Falls is turning into an absolute MONSTER

The massive waterfalls on the border of Argentina and Brazil are being overwhelmed by a terrifying surge of water, with the flow reaching 12,000 CUBIC METERS PER SECOND.

That's roughly NINE TIMES the usual volume.

And things have gotten so intense that crews are DISMANTLING the walkway leading to Devil's Throat, one of the most spectacular viewpoints at the falls, to protect it from the rising water.

Writer: Sol

https://x.com/Aconcagua_radio/status...677339/video/1

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2110075597229822249

Nicolás Blanco

Translated from Spanish
🔴 | The Iguazú River's flow exceeded 12,000 m³ per second due to El Niño and forced the preventive closure of the National Park this Monday

https://x.com/NicolasBlanco81/status...27504626110561

[Ravenlocke]

Al Jazeera English

Heavy rainfall triggered severe flooding in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, submerging cars, trapping people inside buildings and inundating hospitals.

Videos show residents pleading for help and a security officer reportedly carrying a man with disabilities to safety.

https://x.com/AJEnglish/status/2110083150823272685

The Libya Observer

Torrential downpours lash Tripoli: Heavy flooding paralyzes capital and submerges vehicles

​A sudden onslaught of heavy morning rainfall plunged the Libyan capital into chaos today, converting key thoroughfares into impassable urban waterways and sweeping deep into residential homes.

​The deluge, which began in the early hours of the morning, quickly overwhelmed the city’s aging drainage infrastructure. Within hours, main avenues and highways were completely submerged under several feet of water, bringing traffic to a complete standstill and stranding motorists across major transit corridors.

​Dramatic images from major roadways show dozens of vehicles semi-submerged or abandoned by drivers seeking higher ground, with water levels reaching past hood height on trucks and sedans.

Emergency response units have been deployed to navigate flooded districts, extract stranded commuters, and pumping out water from inundated residential neighborhoods.


https://x.com/Lyobserver/status/2109943972835508261

[Eddy Fire]

Has anyone checked whether El Nino is Spanish slang for Lord Rothschild.

[onawah]

Record El Niño forecast: 'Wrecking ball' could reshape your winter
By Rob Shackelford
10/23/26
https://weather.com/2026/10/22/news/...ef-20261023-em

"The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that the current El Niño could be the strongest on record. In this week's news conference, it warns that the event is “literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades.”
https://x.com/WMO/status/21132877898...inter-forecast

World Meteorological Organization
@WMO
We're headed for an El Niño that is — quite literally — off the charts.

WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update shows that El Niño is forecast to exceed the scale of global monitoring charts. Its impacts will be felt well into 2027.

Read the full update: https://bit.ly/4z2MhwQ

10:14 AM · Oct 22, 2026

43.5K
Views

The latest
The WMO's latest seasonal outlook says tropical Pacific temperatures could run up to 3.8 degrees Celsius (6.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average during the three-month period from November 2026 to January 2027.

The three-month average is what is used to determine the strength of the El Niño.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that level has never appeared in the agency's records, only seeing the strongest El Niños reach about 3 degrees Celsius above average.

Remember that forecasters declare an El Niño when the three-month average tops 0.5 degrees Celsius.

El Niño will peak toward the end of 2026, Saulo said, but its impacts will last well beyond that.


WMO Press Conference
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-general Celeste Saulo (L) speaks with United Nations (UN) Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher regarding the unprecedented El Niño that is approaching.
(Fabrice COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

What it could mean
El Niño is a climatological pattern that dramatically affects temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide. A strong El Niño is more disruptive to temperature and rainfall patterns.

The WMO's outlook points to:

- Southwest U.S.: Increased rainfall.

- Eastern North America and the northern Caribbean: Above-normal precipitation.

- Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon: Higher drought risk.

- East Africa: Wetter conditions and flooding concerns through December.

- Southern Africa: Drier conditions from November, threatening crops and water supplies.

- Southeast Asia: Warmer, drier weather, with more heat, wildfire and smoke risk.

Remember that these are regional and seasonal outlooks, so individual weather events can stray from these predictions.

Honduras Drought

As El Niño ramps up, drought is expected to increase for Central America. This could lead to global disruptions to certain foods.
(Orlando SIERRA/AFP via Getty Images)

A humanitarian warning
U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher said during the press conference that “this is serious, and we need to get serious. This El Niño is a behemoth. It is a wrecking ball.”

He said up to 50 million people could face increased hunger. The African Development Bank estimates the cost to African countries at $10 billion to $20 billion and predicts it will lower their GDP by 1 to 2%.

Fletcher said he has released more than $50 million to help 11 countries prepare. He called the next two weeks the critical window to act.

And an El Niño of this magnitude will likely impact numerous other countries and regions.

Preparation is key. If governments act on the forecasts now, the negative impacts will be lessened.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center uses a slightly different metric called Relative Oceanic Niño Index (or RONI) to measure El Niño and it is the standard that we use at The Weather Company. Using that metric, the same period (July-September) averaged 1.7 degrees Celsius above average and they are expecting El Niño to peak at or above 2.5 degrees Celsius above average at the end of this year. "

[Ravenlocke]

Shanghai Daily

Typhoon Champi has left one person dead and 94 injured in Taiwan, authorities said on Oct 23, with the injury count rising by 52 overnight. A total of 1,286 people had been evacuated by 8am

https://x.com/shanghaidaily/status/2113551441839501352

[Ravenlocke]

Geól. Sergio Almazán

Translated from Spanish
TYHOON CHAMPI STRUCK TAIWAN
🇹🇼 🌊
The #Typhoon Champi, weakened, is now heading toward China and Japan.

Yesterday it struck Taiwan hard, with rains and winds reaching up to 180 km/h. Across the entire island, 56,000 homes were left without electricity, fallen trees, flooding, and road closures
Via
@taiwanplusnews

https://x.com/chematierra/status/2114004263286255968

[Ravenlocke]

Pagosa Springs Colorado flooding

WeatherNation

JAW-DROPPING drone video shows devastating flooding in Pagosa Springs, CO, as rising waters have triggered evacuations and rescue efforts.#COwx

https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2113790073900843419

AccuWeather

One year apart, two major floods in Pagosa Springs, Colorado. 🌧️ Heavy rainfall caused the San Juan River to crest near 13 feet on Oct. 12, 2025, but even heavier rain on Oct. 23, 2026, pushed the river above 15 feet, reaching its highest level since 1911 and prompting widespread evacuations

https://x.com/accuweather/status/2113726471722402064

[Ravenlocke]

Vegas

@VegasLamb
·
8m
⚠️Southern Colorado Flooding Update
(as of ~11 AM MDT, Oct. 24, 2026)

Driven by more than 5 inches of rain in two days.

• 🚨 Disaster emergency declared by Gov. Jared Polis for Archuleta, La Plata, Montezuma, Rio Grande, Conejos, and several other southwest/southern counties (National Guard activated for rescues and support).

• 🌊 Major river peaks: San Juan River at Pagosa Springs hit 15.02 ft (2nd-highest on record, highest since 1911; major flood stage is 12.6 ft). Other rivers (Piedra, Animas, Rio Grande, Conejos) also surged.

• 🌧️ Rain totals (Oct. 22–23): Pagosa Springs ~5.21 in, South Fork ~4.46 in, Del Norte ~4.15 in. Remnants of Pacific moisture + saturated ground/snowmelt caused rapid rises.

• 🏠 Evacuations & damage: ~1,000 people/families evacuated. 80–100 homes ordered out in South Fork area; floodwaters reached 4–7 ft inside some homes. Roads, bridges, sewer lines, and infrastructure damaged. No deaths or injuries reported.

• 🚁 Rescues: Helicopter rescue of 2 people + 3 pets from a submerged RV. Swift-water and search teams active.

• 🚧 Roads: Multiple closures/damage including parts of US 550 (Red Mountain Pass), US 160, CO 151, CO 17, and others. Conditions still hazardous; avoid flooded areas (“Turn around, don’t drown”).

• 📉 Current status: Water levels began receding Friday (slow in places). Pagosa Springs shifting to recovery; flood warnings still active into Saturday afternoon in areas including Conejos, Mineral, and Archuleta counties. Additional rain possible through the weekend, keeping flooding risk elevated along the Rio Grande, Conejos, and nearby waterways into early Sunday.

Stay off closed/flooded roads, monitor local emergency alerts (NWS Pueblo, county sheriff pages), and follow evacuation orders if issued.

The attached videos & photos show comparison of 2025 to 2026.

In 2025 the town park did not get flooded.

In 2026 the river banked and flooded the park got fully passing Hermosa St. into the neighboring park.
#PagosaSprings #COwx #Flooding

https://x.com/VegasLamb/status/2114065007457812723

[Ravenlocke]

World News Alerts

Oct 22
🚨 WATCH: Cars swept away by flooding in northern Quito, Ecuador, as heavy rain and hail hit the area.

https://x.com/AustinBrunette5/status...43100181795190

Radio Pichincha

👥#Sociedad | Las precipitaciones asociadas al fenómeno de El Niño dejan 27.145 personas afectadas en todo Ecuador, concentrando la provincia de Esmeraldas el 62,3% del total nacional con casi 17.000 habitantes damnificados.
Los detalles 🔽
https://radiopichincha.com/esmeralda...tados-ecuador/

https://x.com/radio_pichincha/status...66667420430342

Red Ecuador

Oct 22
Translated from Spanish
⛈️ #URGENTE | Heavy rainfall with hail and lightning strikes leave water accumulation and flooded areas in Quito. Emergency agencies are monitoring the capital. #TránsitoQuito #Emergencia

https://x.com/Red_Ecuador_/status/2113391019001774231

[Ravenlocke]

Shiprock New Mexico, never seen it flooded like this.

WeatherNation

#NEW: First light reveals widespread flooding across the community of Shiprock, New Mexico. The area is experiencing its highest crest on record, with water levels expected to reach 23 feet this afternoon. #NMwx #flashflooding

https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2114069413104173542

KOB 4

Rescue crews carried out 20 overnight rescues in San Juan County as floodwaters cut power in Shiprock and kept roads closed this morning.

https://x.com/KOB4/status/2114026350877261965

Grant Tosterud

Rescues continue in San Juan County after 20 overnight operations.

The Shiprock Bridge remains closed, and more rain today could cause rivers to rise again. Evacuations remain in place.

Officials warn floodwater is contaminated with sewage.

📸 Navajo Police Department #NMwx

https://x.com/granttosterudwx/status...23876586037648