Minority rules: Scientists discover tipping point for the spread of ideas

[Carmody]

Minority rules: Scientists discover tipping point for the spread of ideas
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Scientists at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists, who are members of the Social Cognitive Networks Academic Research Center (SCNARC) at Rensselaer, used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion. The finding has implications for the study and influence of societal interactions ranging from the spread of innovations to the movement of political ideals.



In this visualization, we see the tipping point where minority opinion (shown in red) quickly becomes majority opinion. Over time, the minority opinion grows. Once the minority opinion reached 10 percent of the population, the network quickly changes as the minority opinion takes over the original majority opinion (shown in green). Credit: SCNARC/Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute



"When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10 percent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of the universe for this size group to reach the majority," said SCNARC Director Boleslaw Szymanski, the Claire and Roland Schmitt Distinguished Professor at Rensselaer. "Once that number grows above 10 percent, the idea spreads like flame."

As an example, the ongoing events in Tunisia and Egypt appear to exhibit a similar process, according to Szymanski. "In those countries, dictators who were in power for decades were suddenly overthrown in just a few weeks."

The findings were published in the July 22, 2011, early online edition of the journal Physical Review E in an article titled "Social consensus through the influence of committed minorities."

An important aspect of the finding is that the percent of committed opinion holders required to shift majority opinion does not change significantly regardless of the type of network in which the opinion holders are working. In other words, the percentage of committed opinion holders required to influence a society remains at approximately 10 percent, regardless of how or where that opinion starts and spreads in the society.

To reach their conclusion, the scientists developed computer models of various types of social networks. One of the networks had each person connect to every other person in the network. The second model included certain individuals who were connected to a large number of people, making them opinion hubs or leaders. The final model gave every person in the model roughly the same number of connections. The initial state of each of the models was a sea of traditional-view holders. Each of these individuals held a view, but were also, importantly, open minded to other views.

Once the networks were built, the scientists then "sprinkled" in some true believers throughout each of the networks. These people were completely set in their views and unflappable in modifying those beliefs. As those true believers began to converse with those who held the traditional belief system, the tides gradually and then very abruptly began to shift.

"In general, people do not like to have an unpopular opinion and are always seeking to try locally to come to consensus. We set up this dynamic in each of our models," said SCNARC Research Associate and corresponding paper author Sameet Sreenivasan. To accomplish this, each of the individuals in the models "talked" to each other about their opinion. If the listener held the same opinions as the speaker, it reinforced the listener's belief. If the opinion was different, the listener considered it and moved on to talk to another person. If that person also held this new belief, the listener then adopted that belief.

"As agents of change start to convince more and more people, the situation begins to change," Sreenivasan said. "People begin to question their own views at first and then completely adopt the new view to spread it even further. If the true believers just influenced their neighbors, that wouldn't change anything within the larger system, as we saw with percentages less than 10."

The research has broad implications for understanding how opinion spreads. "There are clearly situations in which it helps to know how to efficiently spread some opinion or how to suppress a developing opinion," said Associate Professor of Physics and co-author of the paper Gyorgy Korniss. "Some examples might be the need to quickly convince a town to move before a hurricane or spread new information on the prevention of disease in a rural village."

The researchers are now looking for partners within the social sciences and other fields to compare their computational models to historical examples. They are also looking to study how the percentage might change when input into a model where the society is polarized. Instead of simply holding one traditional view, the society would instead hold two opposing viewpoints. An example of this polarization would be Democrat versus Republican.

Provided by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (news : web)

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-07-...sts-ideas.html

[Ria]

I was wondering what we could do to help, to galvanize change for the better??????
What do think we could collectively agree on????

[Teakai]

Posted by Ria (here)
I was wondering what we could do to help, to galvanize change for the better??????
What do think we could collectively agree on????

That there is a HUGE conspiracy going on.

[Jayke]

looks like a tipping point is being reached in regards to public opinion of the US government...found this lovely article on natural news today about a f**k you washington campaign going around twitter in america...I wonder how quickly it can reach and be embraced by those influential 10%.

http://www.naturalnews.com/033134_so...ashington.html

[Flash]

This is, in my idea, the single most important post/thread of all Avalon history. Tks Carmody.

Agents of change are us if we want it. Thought creates reality. We just have to firmly hold a new set of beliefs and spread it. 10% needed, 900 million on the whole planet.

This is how we will change reality.

My set of firm beliefs:

My beliefs:

• New energies are coming in that will open our hearts and transform our genes for much better
• Sharing and thinking of others will become transparent at every levels including governments and power levels (service to others)
• There is no place for psychopaths anylonger, they change or are gone
• Fear is gone, love is in
• The planet and solar system and universe will support us

Only 10% are needed to have swift change. Up to now, the PTB has had all the mean to create the 10% towards violence, self service, materialism, etc. Yet, they have problems to achieve it and want to get rid of us in order to execute their will.

We need only 10% of hearted people and of refusal of psychopathic behavior to transform the world. 10%

Who are you with?????

[Flash]

I am bad at twitting, in fact I do not know how,

who is in for twitting this:

Fear is gone, love is in, service to others is in,

Psychopaths are out

[Herbert]

The flaw in this study would be "Each of these individuals held a view, but were also, importantly, open minded to other views." What percentage of the population in the real world, truly have open minds? I suspect the percentage of true believers would have to be greater than 10% when you are dealing with the real world because there are so many closed minds. Even scientists and engineers often have closed minds without knowing it. As the saying goes - there is no more closed a mind than a closed mind thzt thinks it's open.

[Flash]

Posted by Herbert (here)
The flaw in this study would be "Each of these individuals held a view, but were also, importantly, open minded to other views." What percentage of the population in the real world, truly have open minds? I suspect the percentage of true believers would have to be greater than 10% when you are dealing with the real world because there are so many closed minds. Even scientists and engineers often have closed minds without knowing it. As the saying goes - there is no more closed a mind than a closed mind thzt thinks it's open.

Just lets try it Herbert, we almost all have firm beliefs here about conspiracy, being led by psychopaths and that service to others is better and should prevail. I bet that 10% or more is easy to reach. Lets try it. And f ck the scientists and hesitants, lets just try it.
Twitter, Facebook, myspace, name it.

[Bryn ap Gwilym]

The 10% mark has been discussed by academics for years & is also know as Hundredth monkey effect.

Strange & funny how the new series of Torchwood mentioned this the other day.

Are people being conditioned?

[jackovesk]

No wonder the NWO Cabal are Sh#t Scared of 911 Truth!

[Ria]

Flash
Well I am up for giving it a go
sorry don't tweet.