Tirelessly updating Avalon on the El Hierro eruption.

[randles]

Goodnight Avalon

The total todate Registered is 9024 as of 21.24 GMT

The Registered total for the day so far is..95

El Hierro is still enjoying the colour Yellow, and it looks as if Polly is settling down for the night,

Sweet dreams Avalon !!

[Hervé]

Latest for the hour:

For the day:

Refresh your browser to get the latest traces

Dramatic change of scale, compressing the earlier graph to the bottom!

How it's looking like now from La Frontera:

[Hervé]

I have been rumaging amongst dusty old papers and guess what I found:

What these pictures show is that there isn't much left of El Hierro to generate a major collapse... local landslides, yes, but not enough for a large tsunami.

[Hervé]

Then, I found this:

Now, that's a very interesting one, once you start to make sense of what the sinusoidal curve represents... it's the sea level at El Hierro during the last two glaciation periods.

This diagram, then, shows when the major collapses at El Hierro occurred with respect to REAL CLIMATE CHANGES. And it happened TWICE! No room left to coincidence.

My bet is that these major collapses happened because it started raining again...

No matter what kind of earthquakes which shook El Hierro before that, they didn't manage to trigger any major landslides... only when the weather began to change.

Now, THAT is interesting... in my opinion anyway.

[Terra]

I think you may be right Amzer Zo. Just went and watched an old Horizon documentary to double check. According to a study done by Simon Day, the rock isnt permeable so water is held there in a series of dams within the lava holes and pressure builds. Water will not do it alone, heat is what is needed as the secondary factor, as the heat rises the water expands and pressure builds even further, possibly bringing about a collapse. Please note the study done was on the other island of Le Parma, not the smaller one, click on the links above.

The megatsunami scenario is based upon half a trillion tonnes of rock slipping violently.

I do not mean to be alarmist, just backing you up on the water theory. I have a good feeling about whats going on thanks to Randles daily updates, but I really don't know owt and am just following. I started looking into possible worse case scenarios for my family about 5 years ago, this was potentially the most realistic of all of them according to my research on floods. They really cannot tell when it will happen, between here and then could be far off, or it could be tommorow. ...and sorry Randles, I don't like disturbing your smiles, I love your positive attitude and think it is inspiring to us all.

[randles]

Oh !!

I now have a great deal of difficulty for thinking without going off on a tangent here....



from 1746, Jean de Bethencorte...
my tangent is not on topic....
It supports,,, Bambaches, Underground tunnel -pre existing- and man made during WWII, Franco (El Hierro was a Prison Island)

Maybe for another thread....

Good Morning Avalon !!
The Sun is Not shining, and it look like rain
Oh Goody

Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
Then, I found this:

Attachment 10218

Now, that's a very interesting one, once you start to make sense of what the sinusoidal curve represents... it's the sea level at El Hierro during the last two glaciation periods.

This diagram, then, shows when the major collapses at El Hierro occurred with respect to REAL CLIMATE CHANGES. And it happened TWICE! No room left to coincidence.

My bet is that these major collapses happened because it started raining again...

No matter what kind of earthquakes which shook El Hierro before that, they didn't manage to trigger any major landslides... only when the weather began to change.

Now, THAT is interesting... in my opinion anyway.

[randles]

Good Morning !! and Thank You !!

"Worst possible case scenarios " are a Grrrrrreeat place to start, because we are automatically 'pulled' there by our Greatest Human Instinct....Survival..
But I promise You... It gets better from there on in.
We use it in every day life..
What would be the worse case scenario in..

Being Best Man at a Wedding ??... Forgetting the Ring, or having Gas at the critical moment
Going to the Works' Christmas Party.... and three other people wearing that 'same dress'
Watching our beautiful wifes give birth to our Children....only to 'pass out' at the most memoriable moment

I am Not making light of the situation. Truly I am not...
Its just that Life is for 5 minutes. Just 5 minutes, and when you look back,,, 3 minutes have already gone...tick tock tick tock...

Dust yourself off of your worries, take that leap of faith, and enjoy the moment.

And your right !! Rock is Not permeable....that is why here in the Mountains of Tenerife, we actually use some of our empty Mountains to STORE water in... cool huh ??
La Palma is what it is. Other than El Hierro, it was the most recently active of these Islands, and as such evoked attention during the aftermath of its activity in 1971... 'Scientific' understanding is continually expanding, but unfortunately, Simon Days documentary, as exemplary as it is, has been used as a seed to literally water our Fear or What/Maybe.. moreso since we all have 'information' at our fingertips due to the evolution and revolution of the Internet. Its how we choose to use that knowledge that is the true test of our strength

Relax, enjoy the day... and I hope that you have a beautiful Sunday with your family

Posted by Terra (here)
I think you may be right Amzer Zo. Just went and watched an old Horizon documentary to double check. According to a study done by Simon Day, the rock isnt permeable so water is held there in a series of dams within the lava holes and pressure builds. Water will not do it alone, heat is what is needed as the secondary factor, as the heat rises the water expands and pressure builds even further, possibly bringing about a collapse. Please note the study done was on the other island of Le Parma, not the smaller one, click on the links above.

The megatsunami scenario is based upon half a trillion tonnes of rock slipping violently.

I do not mean to be alarmist, just backing you up on the water theory. I have a good feeling about whats going on thanks to Randles daily updates, but I really don't know owt and am just following. I started looking into possible worse case scenarios for my family about 5 years ago, this was potentially the most realistic of all of them according to my research on floods. They really cannot tell when it will happen, between here and then could be far off, or it could be tommorow. ...and sorry Randles, I don't like disturbing your smiles, I love your positive attitude and think it is inspiring to us all.

[randles]

Polly has been noticeably quiter since midnight, producing just 29 Registered very low magnitude shaking.. Good Polly !!
The running Registered total to date is...

9073



Have a beautiful day Avalon

[randles]

http://elhierrodigital.es/index.php/...oga-a-frontera

"The seismic crisis strangles Frontera"



"If even a few months ago talked about how the economic crisis was affecting the island of El Hierro and how the disastrous policy of promoting tourism and the high cost of airline tickets and boat had withdrawn the increase in visitors from the Canary Islands seventh island, now the seismic crisis has drowned Frontera, its merchants and the tourism sector and non-hosted stay.

The shops, bars, restaurants, apartments and hotels in the city the few are empty and as this wording has been informed the owners of hotels and apartments do not have one reservation: "There has been canceled, the reality is we did not have, nor are we expected clients or for today or for the next few weeks and if we rush or months. "

Frontera entrepreneurs say that there have been several factors that the municipality is dead and you have to cash them in overcoming specific measures and one by one if they are to many services, some even basic necessities are still in the area offering of the island which has a larger population.

The main and the other is rotating the economic crisis, marked on an island in which over any public work in a municipality where there is tourism promotion, and which must be added within the crisis seismic displacement of many citizens north with family and friends, temporary or permanent place of many people at the onset of earthquakes ways, the end of the tunnel, which has meant that the rest of the people living in the island was Border no longer go to the supermarket to buy the restaurant for dinner, coffee and a ride on the weekends ...

Given this situation at the border, not merely the fear that an earthquake occurs five degrees of intensity, but also the fear of many employers of failing to meet its debts and be forced to close their businesses and the fear that Current public representatives not to try and help create supportive policies to help overcome this state really exceptional confidence in this municipality, the most urgent and necessary repair of the tunnel that is giving notice of deterioration and disrepair long before the onset of earthquakes senses. This alone would be the first of many actions needed to cure its choking Frontera today. The concern is that these actions are not dependent on direct effort of entrepreneurs, but also require the involvement of several island management areas outside the true reality and efficient solutions that this town needs."

[randles]

Please read again....

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/20/bu...-rbogisle.html


"€65 million, or $87 million, hydro-wind project with a €35 million government grant. It is 60 percent owned by the island government, 30 percent by the Spanish utility Endesa, and 10 percent by the Canary Institute of Technology. "

[randles]

and here is the latest Update via the Press in El Hierro http://www.diarioelhierro.com/


"SERGIO GUTIERREZ, DiarioElHierro.es, Valverde (10.02.2011. 11:12 pm)

The island of El Hierro has recorded only six earthquakes between 1:54 and 6:29 pm (GMT which includes the IGN), this Sunday, October 2, 2011, all located at a depth of between 10 and 15 km deep and with magnitudes between 1.5 and 2.2 magnitude on the Richter scale.

According to the National Geographic Institute (IGN) collected by DAILY IRON, from 6 earthquakes recorded on Sunday in El Hierro, the largest was of 2.2 magnitude (at 3:39 and 14 kilometers) an earthquake of 3.4 degrees (03:39 hours and 14 kilometers).

The last earthquake on the island found (and published on the website of IGN) has occurred at 6:29 GMT (7:29 hours canaria), in the south of the island, and reached 1.6 degrees of magnitude on the Richter scale. The last earthquake occurred at a depth of 13 kilometers and at sea."

[Hervé]

Well. it seems that El Hierro seismographs have been on strike since 7 am... here one from La Gomera:

[randles]

Pollly,..is showing as leveling off...



¤=[Post Update]=¤

http://www.emergenciaselhierro.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=220:situacion-sismica-anomala-en-el-hierro&catid=114agina-principal&Itemid=53 is still showing Yellow.

[randles]

"'La crisis volcánica se ha afrontado con la máxima tranquilidad''"



"The president of the Canary Islands, Paulino Rivero, has ensured that the regional government has faced the El Hierro volcanic crisis "with the peace of mind" and said "but you can not have moderation." Canary Paulino Rivero said that since 2009 has a plan for intervention in situations of seismic risk is that which has been activated.

Although there is no data that provide the high-risk situations, earthquakes that are occurring require preventive measures, said the regional president.

"Where there is more peace on the island of El Hierro and the islanders," although the situation has generated great excitement in the media, said Rivero, for whom the steering committee and scientific committee are doing well "reasonably well.

The advent of the Minister Carmen Chacon to the island with the device of the Military Emergency Unit (UME) caused discomfort this week in the vicinity of the regional executive chairman, according to the sources acknowledged.

Rivero had no plans to travel to El Hierro to learn about the situation of the island, but the announcement that the Cabinet representative José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero came to the area forced him to change his schedule. However, the two attended the meeting on Pevolca, the emergency committee to protect the population and follow the volcanic process in El Hierro."

¤=[Post Update]=¤

.... I liked this bit the best

The advent of the Minister Carmen Chacon to the island with the device of the Military Emergency Unit (UME) caused discomfort this week in the vicinity of the regional executive chairman, according to the sources acknowledged.

Rivero had no plans to travel to El Hierro to learn about the situation of the island, but the announcement that the Cabinet representative José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero came to the area forced him to change his schedule. However, the two attended the meeting on Pevolca, the emergency committee to protect the population and follow the volcanic process in El Hierro.

[Hervé]

Those ones at La Gomera were recorded at La Palma as well:

[randles]

Would somebody please help ign.es install their equipment or contribute towards the electricity bill

[sygh]

Posted by randles (here)
Thank you !!
I hope what will happen next is that Polly will find somewhere roomy elsewhere and go to sleep, and wonder about Mother Earth herself, at her very best, could she really create a new Island. New Land created infront of our very eyes. But unlike You or I, Mother Nature does not need 'planning permission' from the Local Council for an extension
Just like the Islanders of El Hierro and many other areas new to these events in our World, we will all have to adapt and learn to understand Her changes and learn to live with them, instead of Fearing them and or predicting them or indeed future events to keep us Fearful of our own future.

Once you let go of fear, its a wonderful feeling

Posted by latte (here)
Thanks randles for all your hard work on this at a difficult time for you all on the islands. I have been in similar situations and can understand the feeling of wondering what will happen next.

Head to the North, feet to the South
Poly seeks with her toes
Through troughs and swales, ridges and whales
Out to sea she goes.

[randles]

An email forwarded to me from a business here in Tenerife, adjacent to my shop..

This is an email that was sent to the Proprietors Parents, after booking a cruise...

It was forwarded to me..

and it goes..

"victorio locutorio victorialocutorio@!!!!!!!!!.com to me

show details 17:19 (2 minutes ago)


The Spanish government have issued a yellow alert following an increased level of persistent seismic activity, described as an "earthquake swarm". The epicentre is on the island of El Hierro - the smallest of the Canary Islands, to the west of Tenerife and Gran Canaria. The island, popular with tourists, has seen over 8,000 tremors in two months, 150 since yesterday and experts fear an eruption could happen imminently.



Around 10,000 people live on the 108-square mile island and 53 people have been evacuated from their homes so far following landslide fears. However, a mass emergency evacuation is now possible with the army on standby for helping out in such an event and residents preparing to flee.

The British Foreign Office advises: "The local government authorities have raised the risk level of a volcanic eruption from green to yellow and taken preventative measures in case of a volcanic disruption, deploying extra resources from the military and emergency services to the island. Local authorities are also on stand-by to effect an evacuation should this become necessary."

Fortunately, no cruise ships are due to call at El Hierro, but there are several scheduled to call at neighbouring islands over the next few weeks.

Ships visiting include Independence of the Seas, Adventure of the Seas and Mariner of the Seas, Silver Spirit, Ventura, Queen Mary 2, Costa Deliziosa, MSC Melody, HAL's Ryndam and Boudicca, Black Watch and Balmoral.



A volcanic eruption has not taken place on any of the Canary Islands since Las Palmas in 1971 but an expert has warned that an eruption on El Hierro could take place in, “days, weeks or months,” according to Tom Worden of the Mail Online. Juan Carlos Carrecedo said, “There is a ball of magma rising to the surface producing a series of ruptures which generate seismic activity. We don’t know if that ball of magma will break through the crust and cause an eruption.”

A spokeswoman for Royal Caribbean said: "We are currently monitoring the volcanic activity on El Hierro to ensure guests enjoy a safe and comfortable cruise. At this time, Independence of the Seas and Adventure of the Seas are still scheduled to make all of their ports of calls. The safety of our guests and crew is always our foremost concern."

[randles]

Nice to see http://www.ign.es/ign/resources/volc...ia/HIERRO.html looking lively again !!

With 52 Registered for the day, it certainly looks as if Polly is off on her way

[randles]

http://elhierrodigital.es/index.php/...ismos-sentidos


"IGN confirmed that there were three earthquakes felt yesterday "

Publicado por Redacción
Domingo, 02 Octubre 2011 15:25

The Canary Islands government maintains the status of yellow light

The volcano monitoring network monitoring 24 hours of National Geographic Institute (IGN) has confirmed this morning that yesterday, October 1, there were only three felt earthquakes in El Hierro, in the early hours of Friday to Saturday, with a magnitude greater or as 3.0 on the Richter scale. The intensity III was the first, the second has not been able to quantify, and the third, fourth.

As you may recall, scientists at IGN, the official organ for volcano monitoring have detected a shift of the phenomenon south of the island on the Sea of ​​calms. Until this trend is confirmed by the scientists themselves, the Government will keep the yellow light, recommending that people watch for official communications and to implement measures for self-distributed.

IGN has registered and located since last July 17, 9045 earthquakes, with epicenters both north and south of the NW ridge and depths between 10 and 15 km. The number of events felt by the population is 59, with intensities II, III and IV in the MSK scale The magnitude greater than this number reached a value of 3.8 on the Richter scale.

This phenomenon is accompanied by surface deformations, which so far have reached 35 mm.

In the last week of September 25 to October 1, 1129 earthquakes were located. In this period have been felt the next 51 events with their respective intensities"