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Thread: Sun Stuff: What's up!

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    wow, popping with the solar stream, so much for quiet...



    Earth side

    Before

    After

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Another M2.2 flare this moring around 9:20 UTC from sunspot 1513 (again)...

    Latest fron spaceweather.com:

    Quote CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of M-class solar flares today. The likely source would be either sunspot AR1512 or AR1513. Both have 'beta-gamma' magnetic fields that harbor energy for strong flares.

    Yesterday in Bispingen, Germany, amateur astronomer Cai-Uso Wohler was monitoring the sun when AR1513 erupted:



    The impulsive M2-class solar flare illuminated Earth's upper atmosphere with a pulse of X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation. This, in turn, created a wave of ionization over Europe, which altered the propagation of low-frequency radio transmissions around the continent. Using a receiver tuned to 23 kHz, Dave Gradwell detected the disturbance over Ireland. More ionization waves are in the offing as AR1512 and AR1513 crackle with flares. Stay tuned.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by MorningSong (here)

    From thebarcaroller:

    in the video he said a 6.3 would be hitting the northern Hemisphere... he needs to adjust his calculator a bit, but one worth watching...

    M6.3 - 99km S of Dushanzi, China
    2012-06-29 21:07:32 UTC
    Last edited by Rocky_Shorz; 30th June 2012 at 04:28.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Another M 1.6 flare today at 18:34 UTC from sunspot 1513:



    A big (triangle shaped) coronal hole has just turned earthward.... watch for more EQs.

    from spaceweather.com:

    Quote ARK HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: Ultraviolet telescopes onboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory are monitoring a vast dark hole--a "coronal hole"--in the sun's upper atmosphere. It has just turned directly toward Earth:



    Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the solar wind to escape. A stream of solar wind flowing from this particular gap is en route to Earth, due to arrive on July 2nd or 3rd. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms and auroras.
    Keep an eye on sunspot 1515...possibility of X-flares is up to 8% chance:

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Almost X-flare, M5.6 from sunspot 1515 was observed at 10:57 UTC this morning.

    ...from spaceweater.com:

    Quote ALMOST X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1515 erupted on July 2nd at 10:52 UT, producing an M5.6-class solar flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:



    A pulse of x-rays and UV radiation from the flare illuminated Earth's upper atmosphere, producing waves of ionization over Europe. Such waves alter the propagation of low-frequency radio transmissions. In Lofoten, Norway, Rob Stammes recorded the ionospheric disturbance using a 60 kHz receiver: data.

    The eruption also hurled a CME into space, but not directly toward Earth. The south-traveling cloud could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetosphere on July 4th or 5th. Stay tuned for updates.
    From Solarham.net:

    Quote Updated 7/2/2012 @ 15:45 UTC
    M5.6 Solar Flare / CME Directed Mostly South
    Gigantic Sunspot 1515 located in the southern hemisphere produced a strong M5.6 Solar Flare this morning at 10:52 UTC. This event generated a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) along with a Type II Sweep Frequency Event. This region is in a great location for Earth directed explosions. More information to follow.

    CME Update: The M5.6 Solar Flare from earlier today did generate a blob of plasma that looks to be directed mostly towards the south and not towards Earth. More updates later today should a glancing blow be possible.
    "Vision without action is merely a dream.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    A total of three M-flares were observed yesterday coming from sunspot 1515... solarsoft reveals that all three were preceded by a percursor C-flare... interesting...

    Active sunspots at the moment:

    Sunspot 1517: yesterday: 1 C-flare
    Sunspot 1514: yesterday: 1 B-flare
    Sunspot 1513: yesterday: 1 B-flare, 6 C-flares, 1 M-flare
    Sunspot 1515: yesterday: 10 C-flares, 3 M-flares



    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

    Soho has entered in a "keyhole" event, that being, the sat has entered in a position where transmission of data will not be possible for about 12 days! No data available on the SolarMonitor.org Homepage!



    This happens about every 3 months (duh!?)
    See links for explainations:

    http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2004_01_04/
    http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/soc/keyholes.txt
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by MorningSong (here)
    A total of three M-flares were observed yesterday coming from sunspot 1515... solarsoft reveals that all three were preceded by a percursor C-flare... interesting...

    Active sunspots at the moment:

    Sunspot 1517: yesterday: 1 C-flare
    Sunspot 1514: yesterday: 1 B-flare
    Sunspot 1513: yesterday: 1 B-flare, 6 C-flares, 1 M-flare
    Sunspot 1515: yesterday: 10 C-flares, 3 M-flares



    http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

    Soho has entered in a "keyhole" event, that being, the sat has entered in a position where transmission of data will not be possible for about 12 days! No data available on the SolarMonitor.org Homepage!



    This happens about every 3 months (duh!?)
    See links for explainations:

    http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2004_01_04/
    http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/soc/keyholes.txt
    Isn't THAT convenient.?????????????????

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    SOHO EIT is still in a "keyhole" but the picts are back up at SolarMonitor.org...yaaay!

    Sunspot 1515 is still growing win it's delta-gamma-delta (the most active electromagnetic formation) form.... they're predicting 10% possibility of X-flares, 70% possibility for more M-flares in the next 24 hours.

    From spaceweather.com:

    Quote CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1515 continues to grow and crackle with magnetic eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class solar flares and a 10% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
    Catch the Full Moon out tonight!
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    Action without vision just passes the time.
    Vision with action can change the world." Joel Arthur Barker

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Four (4) M-flares were observed today; three (3) were from sunsport 1515: an M2.3 at 4:37 UTC, an M5.3 at 9:54 UTC and an M2.3 at 12:24 UTC; one (1) came from sunspot 1513: an M1.8 at 16:39. Will update if things liven up later this evening.

    Here's what's new at spaceweather.com:

    Quote 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS: Chances of an X-flare today are increasing as sunspot AR1515 develops a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for the most powerful explosions. The sunspot's magnetic canopy is crackling with almost-X class flares, the strongest so far being an M5-flare at 09:54 UT. Each "crackle" releases more energy than a billion atomic bombs, so these are 4th of July fireworks indeed.

    The sunspot itself is huge, stretching more than 100,000 km (8 Earth-diameters) from end to end. This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the behemoth growing and turning toward Earth over the past five days:



    Another picture that dramatically illustrates the size of AR1515 is this 4th of July sunrise shot from Stefano De Rosa of Turin, Italy.

    If any major eruptions do occur today, they will certainly be Earth-directed. The sunspot is directly facing our planet, so it is in position to cause radio blackouts, sudden ionospheric disturbances, and geomagnetic storms.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    According to Solarsoft, another M-flare, M4.6, was observed at 22:09 UTC last night from sunspot 1515. Add that to the list.

    And according to GOES X-ray Flux Monitor, this morning we have also already had two (2) more...



    IPS (Australia) shows three (3) M-flares with 2 large C-flares:

    Quote X-Ray Flares

    Recent Flare and Fadeout Information (Larger than C8 Only)

    Last updated 05 Jul 2012 03:36 UT

    Approximate Flare Start : 05-07-2012 0330 UT
    Approximate Flare Maximum: 05-07-2012 0331 UT at Flux C 9.7
    Approximate Flare End : 05-07-2012 0334 UT
    LOCATION OF HF FADEOUT:

    Approximate Flare Start : 05-07-2012 0236 UT
    Approximate Flare Maximum: 05-07-2012 0242 UT at Flux M 2.2
    Approximate Flare End : 05-07-2012 0254 UT
    LOCATION OF HF FADEOUT:

    Approximate Flare Start : 05-07-2012 0127 UT
    Approximate Flare Maximum: 05-07-2012 0132 UT at Flux C 9.9
    Approximate Flare End : 05-07-2012 0136 UT
    LOCATION OF HF FADEOUT:

    Approximate Flare Start : 05-07-2012 0106 UT
    Approximate Flare Maximum: 05-07-2012 0112 UT at Flux M 2.1
    Approximate Flare End : 05-07-2012 0122 UT
    LOCATION OF HF FADEOUT: Micronesia/

    Approximate Flare Start : 05-07-2012 0036 UT
    Approximate Flare Maximum: 05-07-2012 0038 UT at Flux M 1.1
    Approximate Flare End : 05-07-2012 0040 UT
    LOCATION OF HF FADEOUT:

    Approximate Flare Start : 04-07-2012 2348 UT
    Approximate Flare Maximum: 04-07-2012 2354 UT at Flux M 1.2
    Approximate Flare End : 05-07-2012 0004 UT
    LOCATION OF HF FADEOUT:
    http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/8
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    From spaceweather.com:

    Quote INCOMING CME: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. On July 4th the active region hurled at least four minor CMEs into space, including one toward Earth. Click to view an animated forecast track of the incoming cloud:



    According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather lab, who prepared the forecast, the cloud will reach Earth on July 7th around 0600 UT. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on that date.
    In the meanwhile, six (6) M-flares have already occured this morning: an M2.4 at 1:10 UTC, an M2.2 at 2:42 UTC, an M4.7 at 3:36 UTC, an M1.1 at 6:58 UTC, an M 1.3 at /:45 UTC and an M1.8 at 10:48 UTC...all from sunspot 1515. It appears that another has occured just a bit ago...will wait to see the data.

    Update:

    M6.1 at 11:44 UTC, sunspot 1515
    Last edited by MorningSong; 5th July 2012 at 12:53.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    I'm wondering if I am counting this correctly. I think there have been 15 M class flares in 24-36 hours. Is that right? And I am seeing the graph line still moving in a general upward path. Is that right, too?
    Life is a road we don't travel alone. But everyone's on their own journey home.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by MorningSong (here)

    M6.1 at 11:44 UTC, sunspot 1515
    I noticed the images stopped after launching the huge plasma blob to the south...

    so on the anniversary of the London Bombing, July 7th, we're looking at a little Rock and Roll when this wave arrives hitting West Pacific through Europe on it's peak energy...

    25% chance of an X Class...

    hey Bill, it's only a 4 bullet Roulette until this passes...

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    camera's are back up and the proton blast passed, let me know if you find any images from the missing time frame...



    and for those of you wondering how these earth directed sunspots are popping off downward instead of at us...

    Last edited by Rocky_Shorz; 5th July 2012 at 21:47.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by Rocky_Shorz (here)
    camera's are back up and the proton blast passed, let me know if you find any images from the missing time frame...



    and for those of you wondering how these earth directed sunspots are popping off downward instead of at us...

    Oh, are they missing us? That's amazing! I don't know how to tell that. Is there something else I should be watching?

    Much Love,
    Life is a road we don't travel alone. But everyone's on their own journey home.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    News from spaceweather.com:

    Quote HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

    NEW SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb, and it appears to be a big one. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught a first glimpse of the spot's dark cores during the early hours of July 6th:



    Solar activity is already high. The addition of this new active region could boost the chance of flares even more. Check back later today as the sunspot turns more squarely toward Earth, affording a better view of its size and potential for eruptions.

    WAVES OF IONIZATION: Sunspot AR1515 is strobing Earth with C- and M-class solar flares. Each pulse of x-rays and extreme UV radiation creates a wave of ionization in our planet's upper atmosphere. These sudden ionospheric disturbances, also known as "SIDs," alter the propagation of radio signals around Earth. Yesterday, amateur scientist Roberto Battaiola detected a series of SIDs over Pantigliate, Italy:





    Listen to radar echoes from satellites and meteors, live on listener-supported Space Weather Radio.

    Spaceweather Radio is on the air

    HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY: Behemoth sunspot AR1515 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing an X-class explosion. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. X-flare alerts: text, voice.

    NEW SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb, and it appears to be a big one. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory caught a first glimpse of the spot's dark cores during the early hours of July 6th:

    Solar activity is already high. The addition of this new active region could boost the chance of flares even more. Check back later today as the sunspot turns more squarely toward Earth, affording a better view of its size and potential for eruptions.

    Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

    WAVES OF IONIZATION: Sunspot AR1515 is strobing Earth with C- and M-class solar flares. Each pulse of x-rays and extreme UV radiation creates a wave of ionization in our planet's upper atmosphere. These sudden ionospheric disturbances, also known as "SIDs," alter the propagation of radio signals around Earth. Yesterday, amateur scientist Roberto Battaiola detected a series of SIDs over Pantigliate, Italy:

    "I monitored the radio frequency of 21.75 kHz," he says.

    More SIDs are in the offing as AR1515 continues to crackle with strong solar flares. In fact, a really big SID could occur if, as expected, AR1515 produces an X-class flare before it rotates off the solar disk a few days from now. Stay tuned.
    And...

    Quote INCOMING CME: On July 4th, sunspot AR1515 hurled at least four minor CMEs into space. Most flew south of the ecliptic plane (the orbital plane of the planets), on track to miss everything. One of them, however, appears to be heading toward Earth. Click to view an animated forecast track of the incoming cloud:



    http://spaceweather.com/images2012/0...cme_strip2.jpg
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote Posted by 1inMany (here)
    Quote Posted by Rocky_Shorz (here)
    camera's are back up and the proton blast passed, let me know if you find any images from the missing time frame...



    and for those of you wondering how these earth directed sunspots are popping off downward instead of at us...

    Oh, are they missing us? That's amazing! I don't know how to tell that. Is there something else I should be watching?

    Much Love,
    well, imagine a cannon pointed at the side of a barn, no way to miss...

    but it does, again and again and again...

    knowing physics, you understand to veer the path of a Cannon ball at the speed it is fired by a cannon, is no easy feat...

    in fact, far beyond our current technology, which is a speaker magnet and a kid that runs really fast...

    is it God and a Legion of angels? pure luck, or invisible helpers that officially don't exist?

    does it matter who, or is the important part knowing we're covered so we can go on living in peace, knowing it will all be ok?

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    An X-flare yesterday????

    Yep, X1.1 at 23:08 UTC!

    http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/8

    From spaceweather.com:

    Quote X-FLARE: For days, giant sunspot AR1515 has looked capable of producing a really strong explosion. On July 6th it finally did. Yesterday, the sunspot's magnetic canopy erupted, producing a brief but potent X1.1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:



    The explosion hurled a CME into space. According to this movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, the cloud appears to be heading south and away from Earth. However, we cannot yet rule out a glancing blow to our planet on July 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for further analysis.

    Look at the CME movie one more time. The speckles near the end are caused by energetic protons accelerated by the flare. Guided toward Earth by solar magnetic fields, the protons are peppering Earth-orbiting satellites, causing "snow" in imaging systems and posing a slim threat for single-event upsets (computer glitches).
    Last edited by MorningSong; 7th July 2012 at 10:09.
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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Quote well, imagine a cannon pointed at the side of a barn, no way to miss...

    but it does, again and again and again...

    knowing physics, you understand to veer the path of a Cannon ball at the speed it is fired by a cannon, is no easy feat...

    in fact, far beyond our current technology, which is a speaker magnet and a kid that runs really fast...

    is it God and a Legion of angels? pure luck, or invisible helpers that officially don't exist?

    does it matter who, or is the important part knowing we're covered so we can go on living in peace, knowing it will all be ok?
    I have no desire to debate it, lol, but I do believe we have help! I wasn't sure which source of information to watch to see if any or all of these flares are earth directed. I only have the "GOES XRay Flux" graph thing, and I can usually see all the flares...just not which way they explode. I haven't had as many physical symptoms from this whole batch of flares, so either I'm finally getting adjusted or they really aren't coming this way

    Thanks, Rocky.
    Much Love,
    Life is a road we don't travel alone. But everyone's on their own journey home.

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    Default Re: Sun Stuff: What's up!

    Hello
    Yesterday (friday the 6th) the main french cellular operator "Orange" has seen it's whole network knocked down for "unkown reasons" as say the french news... 40 or more millions of french users (as Orange is owning the "physical" network and renting it to other operators) were unable to use their cellphone for more than 10 hours.
    Could it be that the sun is the real culprit ? What's your opinion dear Avalon friends ?

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