Ecuador - orange alert issued in areas of influence of Tungurahua volcano

[Bob]

Seismicity of the Volcano 7 Feb 2014 ACTIVE

http://correo.igepn.edu.ec/heli/heli...2014020712.gif

[Bob]

Photo taken from the 17H00TL OVT, February 5, 2014. The column goes towards the S-SE.

The seismic record associated with the surface manifestations has varied between periods of several hours with few seismic events followed by others with frequent explosions of small to moderate magnitudes and also the emergence of important bands of tremor (seismic vibration continues) that lasts about 15 minutes or more.

It is during these events that tremor similar to a locomotive (chug-chug) sound is heard and there is a greater output of incandescent material, the columns are taller and small pyroclastic flows occur occasionally. Also very vigorous jets loaded with ash up to 4 km above the crater (Fig. 3) are observed.

Figure 3:

[Bob]

Current volcanic status - ECUADOR

3 ACTIVE volcanoes

Emissions:, smoke, sulfur dioxide, CO2
Drifting south southwest

[Bob]

Seismicity of the Volcano - ACTIVE

Numerous periodic tremors indicated.

6 hours later, Seismicity - ACTIVE

[Bob]

10th Feb - Tungurahua volcano - ACTIVE

Ecuador's Tungurahua volcano remains active today, with seismicity as shown:

http://correo.igepn.edu.ec/heli/heli...2014021012.gif

Some big jolts created minor earthquakes (see above) in the seismic image.

[Bill Ryan]

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Bob (and others!), very many thanks for all the interesting updates.

Jeff, Christine and I have just returned from a long road trip through Southern Ecuador, venturing deep into the Amazonian rain forest. Not an speck of ash to be seen: everything was quite normal.

[Bob]

TOXIC Sulfur Dioxide emission in Ecuador, shown specifically in the area is as shown:

http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/p...40210_1837.gif

(note: these maps do not show ash-fall, but show the concentration of the toxic gas cloud emitting from the volcanoes)

[Bob]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
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Bob (and others!), very many thanks for all the interesting updates.

Jeff, Christine and I have just returned from a long road trip through Southern Ecuador, venturing deep into the Amazonian rain forest. Not an speck of ash to be seen: everything was quite normal.

Ya, tirelessly updating Avalon on the 3 erupting volcanoes from the area of about zero and north wards latitude.

My associate just north of the Tungurahua volcano called me yesterday from the top of the mountain in the Park, reporting very hard breathing, and ash in that area. He is determined to continue working in that area as long as he can, going to the spots we discussed. Glad I am not in that area at 13,000 feet plus I bet down south is beautiful ! show us some pix much better than ugly volcano pix..

[Bob]

The 2013 historical report for Ecuador showing the seismic activity over a year's worth of data collecting is located here:

(not in english)

from the PDF, showing the incidents of seismic activity (earthquakes), as shown..

Note that where Bill is, the seismicity is historically ZERO (The spot just north of them on the fault zone had some activity as shown.

[Bob]

Special Official report number 5 from the Institute Geologica - ref: http://www.igepn.edu.ec/

Summary of the activity of the Tungurahua Volcano from 3 to February 6, 2014

On Saturday, February 1, 2014, the Tungurahua Volcano produced a major eruption in the generation of several pyroclastic flows on the flanks of the cone is pointed. These flows down through the north-western, western, southwestern and northern flank. There is also no confirmed evidence that pyroclastic flows down the south-eastern and eastern flank.

Ashfall February 2-5 affected provinces causing significant effects near the volcano and the city of Cuenca.

Starting on 03 February, the volcano has remained almost constant column emission of fine ash, water vapor and magmatic gases.

In most cases, these columns have reached about three miles above the crater and on Monday and Tuesday headed north causing ash falls in Ambato, Patate, Latacunga and parts of Quito.

On Wednesday and Thursday the column was directed to the southeast by the action of the prevailing winds.

The populations most affected by the fall of fine ash are Pondoa, Vazcún, and San Antonio Runtún and less involvement at Rio Verde and Rio Black to the East.

The seismic record associated with the surface manifestations has varied between periods of several hours with few seismic events followed by others with frequent explosions of small and moderate magnitudes and also the emergence of important bands of tremor (seismic vibration continues) lasting about 15 minutes or more.

It is during these events that tremor similar to a locomotive (chug-chug) sound is heard and there is a greater output of incandescent material, the columns are taller and small pyroclastic flows occur occasionally. Also very vigorous jets loaded with ash up to 4 km above the crater are observed.

(when you see these patterns of seismicity (below) in the attached seismic graphics in the posts, you will recognize that such is what they are describing above..)

The staff of the Geophysical Institute, both in Quito and its Tungurahua Volcano Observatory are continually working on the monitoring and evaluation of geophysical parameters of this eruptive period, and will continue to inform the authorities and the community about the further development of the activity of the volcano.

(as are we)

[Bob]

11 Feb 2014 Tunguarhua update

http://camaras.igepn.edu.ec/camaras/bayushig/bysh.jpg

the picture is a live refreshing (about every 15 min) update.

Heavy clouds, particle ash in the area -

Sulfur dioxide gas and ash-cloud distribution regional map, was not available at the time of this posting

Current SEISMICITY - VOLCANO - ACTIVE

Compared to the seismicity of yesterday, earlier in the day there was a slight decrease in the smaller tremors, although there are still some larger outbursts, the "locomotive" style as discussed by the Institute Geologica in an earlier post (see above in earlier posts).

And later in the day, there was a slight increase in the smaller tremors, indicating a slight increase in lower pressure activity (surging effects). (see below) with a slight decrease in the larger outbursts.. as if there is a slight changing in direction of the internal magma flow, and a decrease in the gas content (causing the explosions).

[Bob]

12 Feb 2014 Volcanic Status - REDUCED

reference page: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/p...40211_1920.gif

The SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide toxin emission) has been reducing from the Volcano - the reports are about a day late, lagging from the Institute Geologica though..

The SEISMICIY at the moment is very reduced, with slight outbursts, and very minor rumbling (see maps below from early this morning till recent at the time of posting)

The surrounding region, Banos at the foot of the Volcano remains heavily overcast, with particulates continuing to remain in the air.

(Picture is LIVE, refreshed every 15 min or so)

[Bob]

13 Feb 14 Volcanic status - reduced earlier, but unsettled and at threshold of ACTIVE later in the day

http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/p...40213_1908.gif

toxic SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide) emission from the Tungurahua volcano - MINIMAL

Seismicity of the volcano - diminished at 0700 local however..

a couple of large booms started to appear..

Later in the day the Volcano started to exhibit reactivation, with an increase of large booms, and a large series of repeated tremors.

At 1900 local, the smaller seismic rumbling started to decrease, with a large blast (this graphic will update throughout the night)

[Bob]

13 Feb 14 Tungurahua Volcano status - reduced seismic activity.

Slight rumbling indicated, with an occasional burst of energy.

The cyclic activity (peaks and quite periods) yesterday at showed that about 1300 local time, there was an increase in low level surging, but no major outbursts until about 1700 local.

The Tungurahua Volcano, called a Strato-Volcano (is a volcano that builds up with multiple layers of pyroclastic flow material, and lava, like layer cakes),

and strato-volcanoes comprise the largest percentage (~60%) of the Earth's individual volcanoes and most are characterized by eruptions of Andesite and Dacite lava material.

These are lavas that are cooler and more viscous than basalt.

These more viscous lavas allow gas pressures to build up to high levels (they are effective "plugs" in the plumbing), therefore these volcanoes often suffer explosive eruptions.

These plugs popping, are the source of the peaks we see in the seismographs. (see post #33 above to see these in action)

Prior to the plugs forming, we see a SURGE in low level activity (see the seismic graphs above in post #33) while the molten magma moves around, forming in pockets, then in plugs, mixed with Sulfur Dioxide toxic gases.

These volcanoes are the most deadly worldwide, and should not be taken lightly.

Examples of strato volcanoes include Mt. St. Helens, Mt. Rainier, Pinatubo, Mt. Fuji, Merapi, Galeras, Cotopaxi, Tungurahua.

Strato volcanoes are usually about half-half lava and pyroclastic material, and the layering of these products gives them their other common name of composite volcanoes.

If you recall, the massive explosion at Pompeii, destroyed by Vesuvius in 79AD had immense pyroclastic flows. Herculaneum was also destroyed.

One should never ignore a Strato-Volcano

Seismicity of Tungurahua for today:

[Bob]

In Post #33 and post #34, compare the seismicity starting at about 1200, and one can "see" in the graphic the commonality of the magma flows remaining "liquid" and not forming explosive plugs. When the plug solidifies after a period of decreased movement, then gas builds, and an explosion happens.

Here are the two graphics side by side, yesterday and today:

What we are learning here, is what happens as warning signs in the strato-volcanoes..

I have another thread started on another StratoVolcano in Indonesia. The western side of the Ring of Fire, travels through Indonesia. These volcanoes ARE significant for world class events capable of damaging the environment, and crop production, creating a "nuclear winter" scenario.

I am paying attention to these strato-volcanoes. See the link in the Forum here: https://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...l=1#post797209 to understand more on the RING OF FIRE volcanic belt.

[Bob]

15 Feb 14 Tungurahua volcano Ecuador - STABLE

No major explosions were seen today as far as when this was posted. However as we have seen in the last two days, starting about noon local, the magma movement starts to pick up. This may be indicative of a rise in magma with solar influx. Currently there are particle storms hitting the Earth from a Coronal Hole which is Earth facing.

This report will be updated when the graphic above completes for the day.

(note - to understand more on the potential phenomenon of the surge in magma and seismic activity, when the sun is overhead, please take a look at Mitch Battros's research about his theory that when solar storms light up and send particles to the Earth that the Earth has to absorb that amount of energy and deal with it.

If there is heating of the plates, more so than the normal friction induced by the plates subducting, or moving over each other there could be more slippage, earthquakes, and potential volcanoes lighting up.

Mitch's website is: http://earthchangesmedia.com/ )

ED note UPDATE: - as the sun passed through zenith and similarly as in the days before, the seismic rumbling of magma movement diminished. This periodic change is interesting and has been noted now. Maximum rumbling appears to be about 1 hour after zenith lasting for about 3-4 hours, potentially indicating that some time is needed for the solar particles to be absorbed and for a reaction to occur and then a slow diminishing (if cooling happens?).

[Bob]

16 February 14 - Tungurahua condition - STABLE

throughout the nite, there were small rumblings, until about midnite local time when there was a large explosion "boom" indicative of a solidified magma plug blowing. (see below)

in this next seismic graphic, we can track throughout the day to see if there is a peaking of lower level seismic starting to happen near the noon-time window, for at least 3-4 hours, tracking solar particle influx. As seen below, it did in-fact happen once again, the buildup surging of lower level magma, and then an explosion "boom", between 7 and 8 am local time.

From the space weather prediction center, documenting some of the solar activity, and a prediction of lesser activity in the upcoming days:

"QUIETING SUNSPOT: After days of nonstop activity, big sunspot AR1974 is quieting. The sunspot's magnetic field appears to be losing some of its unstable complexity, prompting NOAA forecasters to downgrade the chance of an X-class flare today to only 5%."

Solar wind though, being emitted from the Coronal Hole (see below) is still predicted to be on path to Earth, hitting through the 18-19th Feb. The assumption would be while the particle influx is happening, there will be magmatic activity, correlating to when the Sun is at zenith.

[Bob]

Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador - condition - 17 Feb 14

Watching the seismic from yesterday, into the night and into the early morning, as the rumbling started to subside after the sun went down, there was a build-up just before 0500 AM local time. This event was a very long duration "surge" only seen when the volcano was erupting earlier in the month. (look at the graphics around the 7th)

An expected explosion (which happened about 0600 AM local) was a release of a plug/gas buildup.

Given the magma circulation being what it has been, if solar activity remains constant, it seems if one sees a long period of very low, almost nil activity in the seismic, and a few large spikes appearing, the possibility for a major "clearing event" eruption may be possible.

Below we see the current seismicity. Again do note the TIMING of when activity starts to increase, which is when the sun starts to approach the zenith.

The solar coronal HOLE (a large band of dark in the image below at the TOP of the sun in the picture) is squarely pointed right at the earth and IS generating a particle stream. Based on the research observations of Mitch Battros (earthchangesmedia.com), when solar particles (in excess) are absorbed by the Earth, there is a tendency for earthquakes and volcanic activity.

This is correlating precisely with the rise and fall of seismicity in the Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador as we have seen in the last set of days that this has been being observed.

[Bob]

Tungurahua status - active, but stable

My associates who were traveling up at the 13,000 foot altitude range north of the Volcano have had to leave the area due to SO2 poisoning, cutting short their two week exploration of the mountains in this part of Ecuador. Visibility and SO2 and ash had been issues since the 5th. Even though the published graphics had not been showing "deadly" levels of the toxic SO2 gas, the reports from those on-site, at altitude, reported being affected, both from SO2 and the continuation of ash particles being stirred up by winds, and being put back into the atmosphere.

It seems then that during a volcanic ash-flow, or eruption where the ash is shot upwards into the atmosphere, the remaining "fallout" of the ashfall, unless it is washed away with rains, continues to be able to be circulated back into the atmosphere, to remain a lung/breathing problem. One of the associates is getting medical care for the issue.

Here is the recent SO2 map published, on the active volanoes only normal emissions from the volcanoes are being indicated. However during an "explosion" of the gas as indicated on the seismic charts, these explosions do not show up on the SO2 graphics as they are not sampling during when the gas eruptions happen. (The satellite moves overhead so it is not a continual real-time data monitor). Ground SO2 and sensors mounted elsewhere "at altitude" or on mountain tops where people visit, would be needed.. Ecuador does not apparently have such real-time sensors for SO2 placed in the region.. (only local volcanic seismic is real-time).

This is the set of seismic to look at what happened throughout the night and into early morning - the second graphic will complete by the end of the afternoon, into evening, showing the seismicity of the Volcano.

There were some larger explosions, more so than the previous evening and morning. Starting about the same time as in the previous days, the lower level rumbling had increased, but not as much as when the Solar Coronal hole was directly facing the Earth. (see the solar coronal hole map below). We have been tracking on this hypothesis that the Earth will respond to solar particle influx with increase in earthquakes, and volcanic activity. Tungurahua has been ideal for monitoring with the very good real-time seismic graphics. Mitch Battros had first postulated that the solar-earth particle absorption heating concept is a valid effect that can be used to predict earthquake/volcanic activity.

Shortly after 0900 AM Local there was a starting of the rumbling once again, that tracks with the movement of the sun towards the zenith position.

Around 1030 AM Local there was a large sustained explosion, larger than usual. Then at about 1345 pm Local there was a similar large explosion of the same relative amplitude and timing profile.

If the period of time decreases between these explosions there is cause for concern as what would be similar to the events leading up this last major eruption.

Significant event noted

Just before 1900 hours local time, a significant explosion with long duration seismic rumble lit off - see the seismic graphic above.

[Bob]

19 Feb 14 Tungurahua volcanic update - stable during the night, unsettled during the daytime

Above the rumbling was peaking as earlier in the week, tracking the solar particle stream influx, then the pattern changed later in the afternoon, altering the oscillation rhythms that had been previously occurring. Before 1900 hours local, numerous short rapid explosions (not too severe) started to happen, with continued low level surging rumbling.

This second peak could correspond to a geomagnetic storm happening on the 19th..

Finally by 2000 hours local seismic activity became strangely quiet. One should be cautious at this point and expect to see some periodic explosions, for the Volcano to "clear its throat". If those do not occur, there could be a buildup of gas deep in the volcano, with a plug that is being suppressed, pushing back on the magma. It is believed we should not think that this current volcanic episode is "over" just yet..

(check the seismic graphic updated through the night to watch for activity)

This is the current solar graphic for today:

There is a new group of Coronal Holes coming into view, Earth facing, while the top set of coronal holes move out of view.