Hi Roisin - in post #53 above - do you feel these are educated guesses or an intuitive prediction?
The items which are primarily catching my eye are numbers:
2.and![]()
The price of oil falls below $25.
Greece’s upcoming elections could reignite the Eurozone crisis, further weakening demand.
It’s also not clear where the breakpoint is for U.S. shale production—meaning where the price of oil becomes so low that it doesn’t make sense for U.S. producers to continue production.
Finally, OPEC, driven by Saudi Arabia, won’t cut supply, in part to hurt those U.S. producers and in part to destabilize Iran.
All of this leads to a further drop in oil prices—and maybe a recession in Texas.
#8
With number 8 above I have seen these words cited albeit at times paraphrased by doctors, officials, bureaucrats, agencies over the last year. Is the author of #8 simply playing back reports and projections and educated guesses?![]()
Ebola returns to the U.S.
The crisis has died down her for now but it is still ravaging West Africa.
Unless we provide the adequate resources and doctors to get it under control there, more people with Ebola will enter the United States.
We’re not going to close our borders to those countries—and that would be dumb anyways.
The worst fear is that it becomes endemic to the region.
Thar's why it's vital that we continue to fight the disease where it's worst, in West Africa, even if there are no cases here at home.
With number 2 above, that 25$ a barrel would be interesting possibly devastating for the US economy and disastrous for the oil industry globally. Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Colorado, offshore in the Gulf, Offshore in Britain and Norway, Mexico, south America (Brasil and Venezuela), and Russia.. Countries in Africa such as Nigeria would be affected too immensely from oil revenue losses..
To me it seems like a major reset of many economies, or collapses with that type of price drop, and it would not be just the US experiencing a burp.. Therefore prediction 1 and 9 seem so far out of touch with actuality, I don't see how the predictor could have any grasp on reality.
Have you seen any one else predict anything similar to item 2 with the 25$ a barrel oil?
thanks. Interesting thread and a LOT of data to correlate across the predictors' predictions..
I will be eager to see trends totalized up (as just a small cross section of predictions would be interesting but not statistically significant).




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