Covid19: Global reports, news and updates

[greybeard]

Oxford epidemiologists: suppression strategy is not viable

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Z3plSbCbkSA

We wanted to learn more about the current state of the pandemic and find out what the evidence was actually saying. Joining Prof Heneghan from Rome was his Centre for Evidence Based Medicine colleague Tom Jefferson to shared their thoughts in this wide-ranging discussion. Have a watch above, key quotes below...

00:00 – Intro

2:55 – Masks
• Tom Jefferson: “Aside from people who are exposed on the frontlines, there is no evidence that masks make any difference, but what’s even more extraordinary is the uncertainty: we don’t know if these things make any difference…. We should have done randomised control trials in February, March and April but not anymore because viral circulation is low and we will need huge number of enrolees to show whether there was any difference”.
• Carl Heneghan: “By all means people can wear masks but they can’t say it’s an evidence-based decision… there is a real separation between an evidence-based decision and the opaque term that ‘we are being led by the science’, which isn’t the evidence".

9:26 – Pandemic life cycle
• CH: “One of the keys of the infection is to look at who’s been infected, which shows a crucial difference when comparing the pandemic theory to seasonal theory. In a pandemic you’d expect to see young people disproportionately affected, but in the UK we’ve only had six child deaths, which is far less than we’d normally see in a pandemic. The high number of deaths with over-75s fits with the seasonal theory”.

14:00 – Covid seasonality
• CH: “The stability of the virus is far less when the temperature goes up but humidity seems to be particularly important. The lower the humidity, the more stable the virus is in the atmosphere and on surfaces… It’s now winter in the southern hemisphere, which is why places like Australia are suddenly having outbreaks.”

20:37 – Lockdown
• CH: “Many people said that we should have locked down earlier, but 50% of care homes developed outbreaks during the lockdown period so there are issues within the transmission of this virus that are not clear… Lockdown is a blunt tool and there needs to be intelligent conversations about what mitigation strategies can keep society functioning while we keep the most vulnerable shielded".

25:20 – Nightingale hospitals
• CH: "They are the wrong structure. What you need is fever hospitals which were here until around the 1980s or 90s. They were on single floors and had isolation within isolation. Theere were no lift shafts and staff were trained, which meant that everyone was protected from each other… It looks like at leats 20% of people got the infection while they were in hospital"

27:30 – Suppression strategy
• CH: “The benefits of the current strategy are outweighed by the harms…When it comes to suppression, only the virus will have a determination in that. If you follow the New Zealand policy of suppressing it to zero and locking down the country forever, then you’re going to have a problem… This virus is so out there now, I cannot see a strategy that makes suppression the viable option. The strategy right now should be how we learn to live with this virus”
32:45 – Response to the virus
• TJ: “I am a survivor of four pandemics and for the other three, I didn’t even realise they were going on. People died but nothing changed and none of the fabric of society was eroded like this response… Do I see steps being taken at a European level about learning from our mistakes and changing policies? The answer is no…
39:30 – Politics of the virus
• CH: “We as individuals are part of the problem because sensationalism drives people to click and read the information. So it’s a big circle because we’ve created the problem — if we put the worst case scenario out there, we will go and have a look. If you want a solution, you’ve got to get people to stop clicking on this sensationalist stuff”.
43:30 – IFR
• CH: “We will be down about where we were with the swine flu: around 0.1-0.3% which is much lower than what we think because at the moment we are seeing the case fatality”.
• TJ: “If you look at the whole narrative, it was distorted from the very beginning by the obsession with influenza which was just one or two agents and nothing else existed. We’re no different now”.

[greybeard]

Why is YouTube Protecting Government Lies?

International best-selling author, Dr Vernon Coleman MB ChB DSc FRSA, looks at how YouTube censors videos and wonders why. He explains that we're fighting the most important battle of our lives.
For more unbiased information about other important issues, please visit http://www.vernoncoleman.com The transcripts of the videos that YouTube banned are also on the website (click on the 'Health' button and see top of page).
Thank you for all your support and encouragement.
Please feel free to share this video.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kI91Tdxr3ok

[Baby Steps]

The following is a london only relevant post, but it may have wider implications.

In london there is a huge infrastructure project approaching completion, two years late - crossrail, a large part underground rail line traversing the city east to west. The largest infrastructure project in Europe and the largest augmentation to londons mass transit capacity since the 1920's.

From a conversation I have had - the workers are packing up and leaving, the job is 95% done. I asked them why stop at this late stage and was told that their employers had lost the contract to complete this.

Is this just a financial decision? unlikely, as if one was facing a 2008 style crisis and wanted to provide a stimulus, there would be nothing better than bringing more people to within a reasonable travel time to town.

so this is not about saving the last few million.

I fear this points instead to a re-assessment of Londons long term mass transit needs, a large reduction due to on going lock downs for more than a few more weeks, sadly.

[greybeard]

DO NOT GET TESTED OR RISK PERMANENT DAMAGE + yet another president throws out the WHO Clive de Carle

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=YlFNhuR1jII

I wish people would not join different videos together.
Several parts are very helpful, not at all sure of the validity of one.
However, its well worth watching to be aware of the possible dangers of one form of testing.
Chris

[greybeard]

No 10 warned by Tory MPs over ‘sinister’ bids to suppress dissent

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/no-10-warn...072243286.html

No 10 warned by Tory MPs over ‘sinister’ bids to suppress dissent
Michael Savage Policy Editor
The Guardian


Senior Tories are warning Downing St that its increasingly domineering attitude towards its own MPs will backfire, after its “sinister” decision to throw a veteran MP out of the parliamentary party.

There have been concerns raised over the treatment of Julian Lewis, who scuppered No 10’s plans by being elected as chairman of parliament’s intelligence and security committee (ISC).

Since Lewis’s arrival in the role, the committee has agreed to publish a sensitive report into Russian interference in British political life that had been blocked by the government before the last election. The report is due to appear this week.

Russia has repeatedly denied interfering, and the Russian ambassador to the UK will do so again on the Andrew Marr Show today, when he will reject claims that the Kremlin tried to steal Covid-19 vaccine research.

Downing St had been planning to install the former minister Chris Grayling as the ISC’s new chairman, but was blindsided by Lewis’s successful bid for the job, which he won with the support of opposition MPs. However, the decision to strip Lewis of the whip has caused a backlash within the Tory ranks. Many MPs are blaming Boris Johnson’s powerful inner circle for their intolerance for any form of dissent.

A number of concerns have been raised with members of the Tory backbench 1922 committee of MPs. Several figures said concerns had been relayed to the chief whip Mark Spencer by the committee’s chairman, Graham Brady, with many urging Spencer to reconsider. “Reducing the majority is hardly a genius move, but this will backfire in the long run,” said one concerned Tory.

I think that you can see it as sinister, because the only rational explanation may be that the government wishes to politicise every aspect of government activity

Dominic Grieve, former ISC chairman

Dominic Grieve, the former ISC chairman who was also removed from the parliamentary party over his Brexit views, said that Lewis’s treatment risked being part of a wider pattern of behaviour from No 10. “I think that you can see it as sinister, because the only rational explanation may be that the government wishes to politicise every aspect of government activity and parliamentary activity and party politicise it, that nothing else is tolerable and that they wish to exert constant and continuous control over a range of activities, which should be carried out by independent players,” he said.

“And if they’re doing that to this parliamentary committee, what will they choose to try and do it to next? I think there is a legitimate reason for being very concerned about what they’re doing, even though this seems to me to be the theatre of the absurd.”

MPs also believe that ministers attempted to soften the impact of the Russia report’s imminent publication by confirming that Russian actors “sought to interfere” in last winter’s general election.

They pointed to a leaked NHS dossier that was seized upon by Labour during the campaign. Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, said any attempted interference was “completely unacceptable”. However, one critic said of the sudden admission: “It’s a bog-standard media ploy, but many governments have used it.”

[DaveToo]

Posted by greybeard (here)
DO NOT GET TESTED OR RISK PERMANENT DAMAGE + yet another president throws out the WHO Clive de Carle

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=YlFNhuR1jII

I wish people would not join different videos together.
Several parts are very helpful, not at all sure of the validity of one.
However, its well worth watching to be aware of the possible dangers of one form of testing.
Chris

Chris as I mentioned to you and others here on the forum before, the third part of the video about the "president of Ghana"
is totally bogus.

To say you are "not at all sure of the validity of one." is as much a cop-out as Clive de Carle's and Jeff Berwick's (The Dollar Vigilante)
including the clip in their videos and NOT DOING THEIR HOMEWORK to check its authenticity.

I would never post any video containing the clip. You are simply perpetuating the myth.

1. The man speaking is NOT the president of Ghana.
2. The document he is reading was not taken from the Rockefeller website.

Take the time to do your own research on this. You should find it to be rewarding.

[syrwong]

David Icke gives more evidence of "no virus" theory, saying that it is becoming clearer it is true.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/3KjGseTaLNFA/

I have no problem in believing a theory/fact of this kind, but it does not agree well with my belief that it is a bioweapons, although low grade. It was easy to discern the "no plane" theory of 911, but the conspiracy this time is so deep and great that the alternative media are absolutely confused and divided.

[greybeard]

Posted by DaveToo (here)

Posted by greybeard (here)
DO NOT GET TESTED OR RISK PERMANENT DAMAGE + yet another president throws out the WHO Clive de Carle

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=YlFNhuR1jII

I wish people would not join different videos together.
Several parts are very helpful, not at all sure of the validity of one.
However, its well worth watching to be aware of the possible dangers of one form of testing.
Chris

Chris as I mentioned to you and others here on the forum before, the third part of the video about the "president of Ghana"
is totally bogus.

To say you are "not at all sure of the validity of one." is as much a cop-out as Clive de Carle's and Jeff Berwick's (The Dollar Vigilante)
including the clip in their videos and NOT DOING THEIR HOMEWORK to check its authenticity.

I would never post any video containing the clip. You are simply perpetuating the myth.

1. The man speaking is NOT the president of Ghana.
2. The document he is reading was not taken from the Rockefeller website.

Take the time to do your own research on this. You should find it to be rewarding.

Yes agreed but
If I could have found the valid parts else where or could have clipped the video I would not have posted this one.
The value of the valid out weighs the non value of non valid however
Chris

[greybeard]

The Telegraph Lockdown may cost 200,000 lives, government report shows
Sarah Knapton
The Telegraph

More on link
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/lockdown-m...125859721.html

CARDIFF, UNITED KINGDOM - MARCH 17: A woman walks through an empty Castle Arcade wearing a surgical mask on March 17, 2020 in Cardiff, Wales. Boris Johnson held the first of his public daily briefing on the Coronavirus outbreak yesterday and told the public to avoid theatres, going to the pub and work from home where possible. The number of people infected with COVID-19 in the UK reached 1500 today with 36 deaths. (Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty images) - Matthew Horwoo/Getty Images

CARDIFF, UNITED KINGDOM - MARCH 17: A woman walks through an empty Castle Arcade wearing a surgical mask on March 17, 2020 in Cardiff, Wales. Boris Johnson held the first of his public daily briefing on the Coronavirus outbreak yesterday and told the public to avoid theatres, going to the pub and work from home where possible. The number of people infected with COVID-19 in the UK reached 1500 today with 36 deaths. (Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty images) - Matthew Horwoo/Getty Images


More than 200,000 people could die from the impact of lockdown and protecting the NHS, an official government report shows.

As national restrictions were imposed, experts from the Department of Health, the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the government’s Actuary Department and the Home Office forecast the collateral damage from delays to healthcare and the effects of recession arising from the pandemic response.

It estimated that in a reasonable worst case scenario, around 50,000 people would die from coronavirus in the first six months of the pandemic, with mitigation measures in place.

But in the report published in April they calculated that up to 25,000 could die from delays to treatment in the same period and a further 185,000 in the medium to long term - amounting to nearly one million years of life lost.

It comes amid debate over the easing of lockdown restrictions, with some arguing it is both too early to lift the measures and that they should have been imposed earlier, while other politicians have questioned whether the cure is worse than the disease.
Projected increased deaths within one year
Projected increased deaths within one year

The Prime Minister has stressed his desire to avoid a return to national lockdown.

In an interview in The Telegraph, Boris Johnson likened the measures to a nuclear deterrent, and said he did not want to impose blanket restrictions again, or think it would be necessary.

The UK's National Statistician, Prof Sir Ian Diamond also said on Sunday that there had been no uptick in cases since lockdown measures had been eased but warned the nation would need to be vigilant come the autumn.

Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer (CMO), and Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific advisor (GSCA) have both expressed concern that the damage from lockdown could be severe.

The report came to light after Sir Patrick told MPs at the Science and Technology Select Committee last week that calculations had been made to predict the number of deaths caused by the effects of lockdown, which was announced on March 23.

The report produced in the following weeks warned there could be 500 more suicides during the first wave, and between 600 and 12,000 more deaths per year resulting from a recession which had a significant impact on GDP.

They also forecast around 20 more deaths this year through domestic violence, and an increase in the number of accidents at home - in the ‘low tens.’ In total, under a worst case scenario, around quarter of a million people would die because of the pandemic response.

The figures were based on 75 per cent of elective care being cancelled over six months without significant reprioritisation when things returned to normal.

The number of elective hospital appointments dropped to around a quarter of usual levels in March and April and had only recovered to around half by the beginning of July.

Charities have increasingly warned that delaying diagnosis, pausing surgery and postponing treatment is a ‘ticking time bomb’ which will cause long-term harm.
Coronavirus podcast newest episode
Coronavirus podcast newest episode

Figures released by Cancer Research UK today show that as of May 30, there were more than 180,000 people in England waiting for an endoscopy - a rise of 44 per cent from the same time in 2019.

And around 2.3 million fewer tests that help diagnose cancer have taken place since lockdown compared to the same time last year, and 51 per cent more people are waiting for colonoscopies.

Michelle Mitchell, Cancer Research UK’s chief executive, said: “Covid-19 has had a devastating impact on cancer patients and services across the UK.

“In the early weeks of lockdown urgent referrals plummeted, screening programmes were paused, surgeries were cancelled, clinical trials were put on hold, and existing health inequalities were exacerbated.

“It’s now more crucial than ever that the Government works closely with the NHS to ensure it has the staff and equipment it needs to clear the mounting backlog and get services back on track before this situation gets even worse – especially in the event of a second wave.”

The report points out that nearly 500,000 people would have died from coronavirus if the virus had been allowed to run through the population unchecked. And there would have been more than a million non-Covid deaths resulting from missed treatment if the health service had been overwhelmed in dealing with the pandemic.
Are Covid-19 cases rising or falling in your area? All local authorities with lookup. Updates automatically
Are Covid-19 cases rising or falling in your area? All local authorities with lookup. Updates automatically

But charities said more should have been done to get medical care up and running quickly when it became clear early on that the NHS was not stretched. Nightingale Hospitals in particular were largely empty even at the peak of the pandemic and have only recently been reassigned for normal care.

Dr Sonya Babu-Narayan, Associate Medical Director at the British Heart Foundation and Consultant Cardiologist, said it was a priority to restore heart and circulatory care: “This report is a sobering wake-up call for governments and the NHS across the UK to urgently restore and maintain care for people with medical conditions including heart and circulatory diseases.

“Although the latest statistics have shown fewer excess deaths in recent weeks, people are still experiencing delays in accessing vital treatment and care, which could make them sicker and ultimately lead to more deaths from both undiagnosed and existing conditions.

“The growing and significant backlog must be tackled to prevent a tidal wave of illness overwhelming the NHS whilst it’s fighting Covid-19.”

Last week, the University of Oxford found that 5,000 fewer heart attack patients had attended hospital from March to May, many of whom could have died through lack of medical care.

The Institute of Cancer Research (ICR) also warned that delays in diagnosis and treatment meant many people who would have recovered from their illness were now facing incurable cancer.

Modelling by the ICR suggests that a three-month delay to surgery alone across all Stage 1-3 cancers could cause more than 4,700 attributable deaths per year in England.

Clare Turnbull, Professor of Cancer Genomics at The Institute of Cancer Research, London, said: “Lockdown and re-deployment of NHS workers as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is causing significant disruption to cancer diagnosis and management.

“For patients with cancer, delay of surgery has the real potential to increase the likelihood of advanced disease, with some patients’ tumours progressing from being curable – with near normal life expectancy – to non-curable – with limited life expectancy.

“At this point, it is crucial to ramp up capacity as quickly as possible to allow cancer services to clear the backlog accumulated during lockdown.”

Figures released last week from Target Ovarian Cancer showed that more than half of women with ovarian cancer surveyed said their treatment had been affected by coronavirus.

Annwen Jones OBE, Chief Executive of Target Ovarian Cancer, said: “It’s hard to overstate the difficulties faced by women with ovarian cancer during this pandemic. We must not let them down as health services recover.

“It is urgent that we now see comprehensive plans and a timeline for the full restoration of diagnostic, treatment and support services. This is the only way to avoid worse outcomes and a devastating toll on women’s lives.”

Data compiled by The Telegraph showed that by the end of May there had been more than 23,000 excess deaths in care homes or at home, not linked to Covid-19, since the middle of March.

There are also fears that the government’s ‘protect the NHS’ message was too effective, with many people staying away from hospitals when they needed urgent medical help.

In April, Chief Executive of NHS England Sir Simon Stevens was forced to issue an urgent message asking people to come forward if they needed treatment.

However the report did predict some good news for lockdown. Experts calculated that there would be approximately 200 - 500 fewer road traffic and air pollution deaths, 67 fewer murders and a small drop in work related accidents during the six month first wave period.

There may also be a positive impact on health as a result of increased physical activity as people take the opportunity to use their one instance of daily exercise, the authors state, although they also warn that some may become more sedentary whilst staying home. And there is some evidence that recessions can improve mortality rates, possibly saving a few thousands lives.

[Iancorgi]

[Valerie Villars]

Well, here goes the first wave of test now and pay later. New Orleans is asking for volunteers for a new vaccine.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronaviru...4313a086a.html

Coronavirus vaccine volunteers needed in New Orleans, Baton Rouge; here's how study will work
BY EMILY WOODRUFF | STAFF WRITER PUBLISHED JUL 18, 2020 AT 4:03 PM | UPDATED JUL 18, 2020 AT 4:54 PM
4 min to read
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Virus Outbreak Vaccine Race
FILE - In this March 16, 2020, file photo, a subject receives a shot in the first-stage safety study clinical trial of a potential vaccine by Moderna for COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. According to results released on Tuesday, July 14, 2020, early-stage testing showed the first COVID-19 vaccine tested in the U.S. revved up people’s immune systems the way scientists had hoped. The vaccine is made by the National Institutes of Health and Moderna Inc. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren, File)


After a vaccine for coronavirus showed promising results in a 45-person study conducted by biotech company Moderna, research sites in New Orleans and Baton Rouge will enroll volunteers to measure whether the vaccine is ready for the world at large as part of a Phase 3 study.

Benchmark Research in Jefferson Parish is looking for at least 300 people to take part in the 30,000-person study, which is run by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. It is also seeking 1,000 volunteers for other COVID-19 vaccine studies currently in the pipeline. In Baton Rouge, Meridian Clinical Research is looking for between 350 to 500 participants for the Moderna study.

LDH no longer updating coronavirus numbers on Saturdays to ease burden on labs
LDH no longer updating coronavirus numbers on Saturdays to ease burden on labs
In the U.S., where the virus has been able to gain footing after social-distancing measures loosened and a political backlash against mask-wearing developed, many scientists have put any hope for returning to normal and reopening the economy in a vaccine. Twenty-three vaccine candidates are being evaluated in a clinical setting with 140 more in the works, according to a report released Wednesday by the World Health Organization. The Moderna vaccine was the first to be tested in humans in the U.S.

All participants will get two shots one month apart. Researchers will then follow the volunteers for two years. Half the participants will receive a placebo shot of saline.

The other half will be injected with genetic material from the virus called mRNA, said Dr. Michael Cotugno, an emergency medicine physician and principal investigator at Benchmark. That material cultivated antibodies in the 45 participants in the first test, and the antibodies neutralized the virus.

Some vaccines, including a few coronavirus vaccines being developed in Turkey and India, use what's known as a live-attenuated virus to train the body's immune to fight the real thing should a person be exposed to it. An attenuated virus is a weakened form of the virus. Other companies are using an inactivated version of the virus — particles of it that have been killed — to produce antibodies.

But Cotugno stressed that participants in the Moderna study are not injected with the virus itself and will not be exposed to the virus in a lab setting.

"You cannot get the COVID disease from these vaccines," said Cotugno. "We're injecting bits of protein, not the virus."

If the vaccine proves effective during regular reviews of the data, typically the sponsor of the study has an ethical duty to stop the placebo arm of the trial and provide the vaccine to every participant.

Jefferson Parish and Baton Rouge were chosen because they are hot spots for the virus and participants are more likely to be exposed because of their location.

While the trial proved safe in the 45 healthy volunteers in the Phase 1 study, which was published Tuesday in The New England Journal of Medicine, there are some risks. All of the 45 participants reported non-serious side effects such as fatigue, chills, headache and pain at the injection site — what Benchmark site director Jeffrey Senger said is a normal reaction to any vaccine, including the flu shot.

As coronavirus deaths surged in Louisiana, more people died of other things, too, studies say
As coronavirus deaths surged in Louisiana, more people died of other things, too, studies say
“Any time you stick a needle in someone’s arm, it can hurt, it can bruise, it can bleed,” said Senger.

One patient who received the highest dose of vaccine in the Phase 1 study sought medical attention after spiking a 103-degree fever. The participants of this larger study are receiving a significantly lower dose.

Experts not involved in the study said there are risks and benefits to participating in any Phase 3 study.

The vaccine could be effective and provide some level of protection to participants, said Dr. David Mushatt, an infectious disease expert at Tulane University who has overseen many clinical trials in academic and hospital settings.

“The vaccine does seem to work to stimulate the human immune system into making antibodies that, in theory, we hope will be protective," said Mushatt.

It’s still not clear if the antibodies are protective against COVID-19 or if the virus might be able to replicate in spite of their presence. Even if they are protective, they might not protect everyone. Older people, in particular, don’t respond to vaccines the same way that young people do.

There is also a chance serious side effects could show up in a larger study.

“When you go from 45 patients to thousands, that is when you tend to see the less common side effects,” said Mushatt.

[greybeard]

Police force says it won’t respond to calls about shoppers not wearing face masks
Ross McGuinness

Yahoo News UK


A police force has announced it will not respond to calls about people not wearing face masks in shops.

From Friday, wearing a face mask in shops in England is mandatory under the government’s latest coronavirus rules.

Anyone who does not comply can be fined £100, halved to £50 if paid within 14 days.

However, there have been questions about how the new rule will be enforced. Businesses will be asked to encourage compliance, but enforcement is the responsibility of the police.

But after the move was announced last week, Metropolitan Police Federation chairman Ken Marsh said it will be “impossible to enforce”.

And now Devon and Cornwall Police has said it will only respond to calls about people not wearing face coverings if they involve a suspected public order offence.

Alison Hernandez, the force’s police and crime commissioner, said: “The expectation is that they will only come if there is disorder or violence or something associated with it.

“They are not going to come to every phone call that someone is not wearing a mask,” she told Cornwall Live.

Instead, she said “street marshals” will be in place to encourage people to follow the guidelines.

Hernandez said: "What we ended up having in Devon was armed response officers for public order going along and that was not appropriate.

“You don’t want policing like that because it looks a bit policey, so we needed a better solution and we came up with this idea.”

On Tuesday, policing minister Kit Malthouse said officers can be called to a shop if “it’s a public order issue”.

He said shops should encourage people to wear face masks when they become compulsory.

Speaking on BBC Breakfast, Malthouse said: “There’s no intention for the police to be standing outside every branch of Asda or Greggs and making sure that people are wearing face masks.

“What we’re doing is adopting the same posture that we did throughout the lockdown which is encourage people to comply.

“We know from the previous experience that the vast majority of people will, and that, you know, shops and others should encourage people to wear face masks if at all possible, and they obviously are – it’s going to be compulsory.

“But if people resist or won’t leave the premises or there’s any kind of altercation, then obviously the police will be called and they should attend if it’s a public order issue, as they would in any other retail circumstance – if there was a scuffle or a conflict that arose.”

[Waldo]

Great Read and good research

https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/6/28/secondwave

Snip
The Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) for COVID-19 is between 10-20%

This fact gets less press than any other. Most people understand the basic concept of herd immunity and the math behind it. In the early days, some public health officials speculated that COVID-19’s HIT was 70%. Obviously, the difference between a HIT of 70% and a HIT of 10-20% is dramatic, and the lower the HIT, the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S, which is why the death curve above looks the way it looks. Scientists from Oxford, Virginia Tech, and the Liverpool school of Tropical Medicine, all recently explained the HIT of COVID-19 in this paper:

We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in propensity to acquire or transmit COVID-19 or other infectious diseases and overlaid the findings as vertical lines in Figure 3. Most CV estimates are comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the herd immunity threshold once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune.

Calculations from this study of data in Stockholm showed a HIT of 17%, and if you really love data check out this great essay by Brown Professor Dr. Andrew Bostom titled, COVID-19 ‘herd immunity’ without vaccination? Teaching modern vaccine dogma old tricks. I’m going to share his summary with you, because it’s so good:

Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly — especially nursing home and assisted living facility residents — is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the dubious panacea of mass compulsory vaccination against the virus. This strategy was successfully implemented in Malmo, Sweden, which had few COVID-19 deaths by assiduously protecting its elder care homes, while “schools remained open, residents carried on drinking in bars and cafes, and the doors of hairdressers and gyms were open throughout.”

One of the most vocal members of the scientific community discussing COVID-19’s HIT is Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt. Back on May 4, he gave this great interview to the Stanford Daily where he advocated for Sweden’s approach of letting COVID-19 spread naturally through the community until you arrive at HIT. He stated:

Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt
Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt

If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought.

Guess what? That’s exactly what happened. As of today, 7 weeks after his prediction, Sweden has 5,280 deaths. In this graph, you can see that deaths in Sweden PEAKED when the HIT was halfway to its peak (roughly 7.3%) and by the time the virus hit 14% it was nearly extinguished. (Shoutout to Gummi Bear on Twitter, a scientist who makes great graphs.)

EbIadRrX0AILSD-.jpeg
How could Dr. Levitt have predicted the death range for Sweden so perfectly 7 weeks ago? Because he had a pretty solid idea of what the HIT would be. (If you’d like to further geek-out on HIT, check out: Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought.) I absolutely LOVE Dr. Levitt (and as a Stanford alum, so proud he is a Stanford professor), watch this incredible video from just yesterday, go to 10:59 and just listen to this remarkable man!! Thrilled with his brand-new paper, released today, Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line.

By the way, as a quick aside, and something else the press won’t touch: COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and we have ALL been exposed to MANY coronaviruses during our lives on earth (like the common cold). Guess what? Scientists are now showing evidence that up to 81% of us can mount a strong response to COVID-19 without ever having been exposed to it before:

Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 T-cell epitopes revealed preexisting T-cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals, and validation of similarity to common cold human coronaviruses provided a functional basis for postulated heterologous immunity

This alone could explain WHY the HIT is so much lower for COVID-19 than some scientists thought originally, when the number being talked about was closer to 70%. Many of us have always been immune! If that’s not enough for you, a similar study from Sweden was just released and shows that “roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.” (We kind of knew this from the data on the Diamond Princess when only 17% of the people on board tested positive, despite an ideal environment for mass spread, implying 83% of the people were somehow protected from the new virus.)

Quick Update: This article came out one day after I wrote mine, and validated everything I just said, except the author is wrong about COVID-19’s HIT, it’s 10-20%, not 60%, which is even better news:

click to read
click to read

“However, it does provide a possible explanation for why the Covid-19 epidemic seems to have died away in many places once it had infected around 20 per cent of the local population (as judged by the presence of antibodies). If people are developing some kind of immunity to Covid-19 via their T cells then it could mean that a far higher percentage of the population has been exposed to Covid-19 than previously thought. Antibodies and T cells combined, it is conceivable that some places such as London or New York are already at or near the 60 per cent infection level required to achieve herd immunity.”

Back to death rates over time. We actually have our own Sweden here in the U.S. It’s called New York City. In our case, we accidentally created a Sweden scenario, in that we took our medicine quickly, because: 1) New York locked down so late that they didn't flatten anything, 2) they have the highest population density in the U.S. in NYC, and 3) the public health officials and Governors there made the bone-headed decision to send COVID-positive nursing home residents back to their nursing home, accelerating deaths of the most vulnerable. What’s their death curve look like today? In this case, I borrowed the graph from the NYC public health website:

what the end of a virus looks like…
what the end of a virus looks like…

Hmm…notice anything about the chart or its slope? The reason deaths from COVID-19 are dwindling down to nothing isn’t because Governor Cuomo is a policy genius (in fact, he likely created more unnecessary deaths than any other Governor with the nursing home decision), it’s because the virus—like every virus in the history of mankind—is running out of people to infect. The virus has a HIT of 10-20% and 70% of people are likely naturally immune. Hosts are in short supply! That’s what viruses do, and wait until you see what New York’s likely HIT is today.

We can get a crude, but helpful proxy for whether or not a state (or region) has achieved their own Herd Immunity Threshold if we know the following things: the size of the population, the number of deaths from COVID-19, and COVID-19’s IFR, or Infection Fatality Rate. In my first blog post late last month, LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person's guide, I discussed Infection Fatality Rate in detail, so I am just going to give a very quick summary here. Stanford’s Dr. John Ioannidis published a meta-analysis (because so many IFR studies have been done around the world in April and early May) where he analyzed TWELVE separate IFR studies and his conclusion lays out the likely IFR for COVID-19:

The infection fatality rate (IFR), the probability of dying for a person who is infected, is one of the most critical and most contested features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The expected total mortality burden of COVID-19 is directly related to the IFR. Moreover, justification for various non-pharmacological public health interventions depends crucially on the IFR. Some aggressive interventions that potentially induce also more pronounced collateral harms1 may be considered appropriate, if IFR is high. Conversely, the same measures may fall short of acceptable risk-benefit thresholds, if the IFR is low…Interestingly, despite their differences in design, execution, and analysis, most studies provide IFR point estimates that are within a relatively narrow range. Seven of the 12 inferred IFRs are in the range 0.07 to 0.20 (corrected IFR of 0.06 to 0.16) which are similar to IFR values of seasonal influenza. Three values are modestly higher (corrected IFR of 0.25-0.40 in Gangelt, Geneva, and Wuhan) and two are modestly lower than this range (corrected IFR of 0.02-0.03 in Kobe and Oise).

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by syrwong (here)
David Icke gives more evidence of "no virus" theory, saying that it is becoming clearer it is true.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/3KjGseTaLNFA/

I have no problem in believing a theory/fact of this kind, but it does not agree well with my belief that it is a bioweapons, although low grade. It was easy to discern the "no plane" theory of 911, but the conspiracy this time is so deep and great that the alternative media are absolutely confused and divided.

My apologies for being late to notice this post and reply to it.

In my strong opinion, you're 100% right. Of course there's a virus (meaning, SARS-CoV-2). And a close relative of this is the claim that one can't catch a virus anyway. (That's not correct, either!)

I'm an admirer and personal friend of David, but he's quite wrong here.

And yes, there are loud persistent voices, but this kind of confusion and well-intentioned misinformation really doesn't help us focus on what really important.

9/11 is quite a good comparison. It doesn't even matter whether the virus is real or not (though it is! ). It's how it's being used. That's what's important.

David does a great job of explaining the covert agendas. But smart, aware and articulate as he is, he's no virologist, and he'd be respected [even] more if he gently laid that particular issue aside.

Here's the gene sequence: (or one of them)

http://projectavalon.net/SARS-CoV-2_gene_sequence.pdf

[Delight]

My personal experience is that I had strange symptoms after vaccination such as a sudden 25 pound weight gain at 6 years old after preschool shot and narcolepsy symptoms for 6 months after a flu shot.

These symptoms were never connected to the vaccine but strangely coincidental.

Many people DID run out and get a flu shot when told to do so this spring. IMO it will be very hard to tease out the consequences of vaccination.

[DaveToo]

This one jumped off the page for me today reading a news website.

It was an article concerning flying today in the age of Covid-19.

Anyone who has flown in a plane for the past 15-20 years knows that
bringing aboard liquids on a plane is a no-no.
It just won't happen. You won't get past security.

Coke?
Water?
Are you kidding me?
No way!
They could be laced with liquid bombs.

Surprise, surprise.
Today they are allowing hand sanitizer past security.
They simply scan the bottle and away you go!

Let me get this straight.
You mean to tell me they had the technology all these years to scan
other liquids to check if they were safe, but they were waiting for
a pandemic before they chose to reveal it???

[greybeard]

Should the COVID-19 Vaccine Be Made Compulsory? | Good Morning Britain

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=25LbHn3byI8

This scares me.
The fact that "logical" reasons to make this vaccination mandatory are being debated on prime time BBC TV shows the influence of the vaccine industry.

Chris

[greybeard]

Five Battles We Cannot Afford to Lose

International best-selling author, Dr Vernon Coleman MB ChB DSc FRSA, describes how we can fight against masks, media lies, lockdowns, social distancing and the disappearance of cash.
For more unbiased information about other important issues, please visit http://www.vernoncoleman.com
The transcripts of the videos YouTube banned are also on the website (click on the 'Health' button and see top of page).
Thank you for all your support and encouragement.
Please feel free to share this video.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=P9qodaAeTqc

[Patient]

Ok, try this....

In the google search bar, type in a 3 or 4 digit number followed by "new cases".

See what you get.

[greybeard]

Covid 19: Montagner, Mikovits, and now Professor Dolores Cahill?

Professor Dolores Cahill is highly qualified in her field of molecular biology, and has previously managed research laboratories at the P3 and P4 levels. She is outspoken in her counsel that the appropriate response to Covid 19 is to protect the elderly and the vulnerable while letting the virus take its natural course, which will confer immunity on the human population. She also maintains that hydrochloriquine is a safe and effective treatment for serious Covid infections.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EfzfrztzYiQ