WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

**Fellow Aspirant** · 12th November 2022 01:12

Well Avalonians:

Here it is Remembrance Day. There's a lot to remember!

And with certain recall, some of us may wish to gaze into the future, near or far, and consider our thinking on the events of the last few days in Kherson.

It appears that the Russian forces have actually left the city of Kherson (I was expecting a trap for trigger happy Ukrainians) and have fallen back to their prepared defensive lines on the other side of the Dnieper. The progress of the war is, I feel, on a knife edge.

So the question of the day is, "What now?" i.e. Will the Ukrainians have the guts to assault the Russian positions? If so, how do you project it will go?

Conversely, if the Ukrainians halt their advance for a few days (or weeks, or for the winter ...?) then what are options on the table for the mastermind that is Vladimir Putin?

Please be as detailed and precise in your analyses as you can.

Brian

**Goba** · 12th November 2022 03:11

Months ago I told you that Russia had lost the war the day it started it.

Lots a smart comments where shot at me for that and all the Putin war lovers here ganged up - however I keep being right in my assessment.
With Kherson gone the definition of "optimist" here seems to be the guy who falls off a skyscraper and says passing the 2nd floor "so far so good".

It looks even worse than casual glimpses at the Russian position reveals:

I just had a look at the one in the Kherson region and just noticed why the Russians are in such a hurry to get out of Kherson. The railroads in that area are laid out like a giant inverted V with nova kakhovka to the west, the Antonovsky bridge to the east, and snihurivka at the apex. At the base of the triangle is the M14 highway that runs along the right bank of the river.
The Antonovsky bridge has been out since the Spring, which means that anything heavier than a pallet of MRE's has had to come across the Nova Kakhovka by rail. From there, it had to either make the trip up to Snihurivka and back down to Kherson or unload onto trucks and travel the M14 hwy. Doing so has been tough since the US has been giving the Ukrainians satellite verified target lists for HIMARS on the supply dumps. That and they have precious few trucks and drivers left and using fuel to keep those truck fleets going is a nasty way to increase your burn rate.
The Russians lost thousands of men holding Snihurivka for exactly this reason.

They definitely lost it last night.

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 04:54

And you were wrong, just like you are once again, just now

You are a bit naive, honestly, let me explain why

In your constant enjoyment of everything "Russia is losing" news, you forgot you have no clue about military strategy and are being fooled by a bunch of ignoramus pretending to be journalists with little to no morals, ethics or anything resembling human respect or honor. But they sure play the game of analysts and 'experts'. Too bad that's how you figure how things work, but oh well

Here's something for you to ponder, and a task you may want to research into, if you truly care for truth

There is a dam up north through the dnieper river, which Ukraine constantly threatened to blow up while Russia was in the Kherson zone, it would, if destroyed, killed 100,000+ people and completely obliterate lots of villages along the way. To prevent this, and because there was no reason to not avoid the situation, most people were evacuated from the danger zones in the past weeks. So now even if the dam is destroyed, the flood will only take houses and roads away, but not people. Does that make sense?

Leaving the zone does not matter much, for now, because the cost of remaining there was way too high (100 thousand+ lives lost)

So now, here's some stuff for you to ponder about:

Since Russian army was the one on the region and the one that would be gone if the dam is destroyed, and there were thousands or soldiers there, then it would be a big hit to the Russian army, thousands of soldiers dead by the flooding

But the Ukrainian army tried to attack and failed, then the Russian army left the zone, now it is empty, both of civilians and from Russian army, so now the Ukrainian army goes and takes over the land, they place their air defense, army posts, etc all over the place

So now, as in everything else, "there is an up and down, and then there's a down and up"

Tasks for you. Figure out with your own thinking...

- Who is now on the danger zone? (If the zone gets flooded, which army is in danger?)
- If there are no civilians around, and the zone gets flooded, this is a legal war strategy but lots of soldiers will die, who's to blame for that?
- How much value do you see in a fake victory, since the Ukrainian army goes and takes over but only until they make sure the Russian army is gone?

See? That's why armchair analysts posting from Washington and other places regularly look like fools

Think fast, think strong and think smart. Are you doing any of those?

You should stop reading and following useful idiots

Posted by Goba (here)
Months ago I told you that Russia had lost the war the day it started it.

Lots a smart comments where shot at me for that and all the Putin war lovers here ganged up - however I keep being right in my assessment.
With Kherson gone the definition of "optimist" here seems to be the guy who falls off a skyscraper and says passing the 2nd floor "so far so good".

It looks even worse than casual glimpses at the Russian position reveals:

I just had a look at the one in the Kherson region and just noticed why the Russians are in such a hurry to get out of Kherson. The railroads in that area are laid out like a giant inverted V with nova kakhovka to the west, the Antonovsky bridge to the east, and snihurivka at the apex. At the base of the triangle is the M14 highway that runs along the right bank of the river.
The Antonovsky bridge has been out since the Spring, which means that anything heavier than a pallet of MRE's has had to come across the Nova Kakhovka by rail. From there, it had to either make the trip up to Snihurivka and back down to Kherson or unload onto trucks and travel the M14 hwy. Doing so has been tough since the US has been giving the Ukrainians satellite verified target lists for HIMARS on the supply dumps. That and they have precious few trucks and drivers left and using fuel to keep those truck fleets going is a nasty way to increase your burn rate.
The Russians lost thousands of men holding Snihurivka for exactly this reason.

They definitely lost it last night.

**Bill Ryan** · 12th November 2022 05:26

Friends, this 27-minute video was posted less than 24 hours ago, and was forwarded to me with the following comment:

It is the most powerful, important, and timely video that I have ever seen on YouTube.

AZOVSTAL: an exclusive look in Azovstal with John Mark Dougan

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=mPcaR8wlAcQ

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 05:27

Following on last post, i thought of this, that's how dumb they are, honestly!

- UkroNazi: Ha ha! I'm going to drown you by breaking the dam and then you and all the people there will die!
- Russia: No we won't, we are leaving and taking everyone with us
- UkroNazi: HA HA! Look at you running away, you are scared of us! Run away to your Mama!
- Russia: No, we just saving some lives, we'll be back once things are safe and we can do our move
- UkroNazi: HAHAHA! No you won't! Now i live in the land i made you run away from! HAHAHA!
- Russia: You forgot that it's still the same land and now you are the one that could be flooded instead of us....
- UkroNazi: ...... U.S.A! U.S.A! U.S.A!

- Russia: Maybe you should not try to live on that land, it could get flooded, don't you remember?
- UkroNazi: Himars! SkyLink! Fake promises and Western Money!
- Russia: Ok...

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 05:32

The movie "The best in hell" can be watched here, in case someone is interested

Notes:

- There's not a lot of dialogue but it is not needed in my opinion, the action speaks for itself

- No English subtitles, but not needed anyway, as explained above

- I can't/don't know how to download the movie from VK, but if someone knows please try and maybe it could be added to the Avalon library later on

- Very interesting that in this movie explosions from Tank shells mostly always show black smoke clouds. In reality, most times at first the smoke is white/grayish, it only turns black if there was some kind of fuel or powder at the target's location and it ignites, then it becomes black

https://vk.com/video-172867724_456240681

**Bill Ryan** · 12th November 2022 06:00

Posted by Goba (here)
Months ago I told you that Russia had lost the war the day it started it.

Lots a smart comments where shot at me for that and all the Putin war lovers here ganged up - however I keep being right in my assessment.

Here's another one of those comments you don't like and clearly never understand.

You don't know what "lost the war" means.

Pyrrhic Victory:
Winning a battle but losing the war is a military mental model that refers to achieving a minor victory that ultimately results in a larger defeat, rendering the victory empty or hollow. It can also refer to gaining a small tactical advantage that corresponds to a wider disadvantage.

The Kherson retreat wasn't even a "battle". It was just that, a tactical retreat, the militarily correct thing to do in the much wider context. That's all, nothing more. The western media is crowing about it, but they don't know what "losing a war" means either.

The much wider context is that the world is gradually now being reshaped, and in a positive, encouraging way. Russia can't lose the war, and the important thing to focus on is how the transition to a different kind of world order will be managed. (Carefully, is one way to consider, but Putin is actually a very careful person. The transition seems to be in good hands.)

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 06:50

A very important lesson i remember from the Nashi, lol, yes even they had some good stuff to teach (it came from true hardened/hard core veterans soviet leaders as instructors)

It was a simple lesson:

IF the enemy retreats silently through the night and leaves the position open and without any regard, that's a trap, don't go there

And yet........

Looks like the Ukrainian army did not had the same instructors as we did

They somehow got that part lost through time in the past 3 decades

But i do have to wonder, how come they are taking over that same land they made sure was impossible to live on, and they can't figure out that they are now the ones in the difficult situation of surviving on that impossible to defend territory? Are they that dumb? What happened to the US and NATO command strategists? Are they also ignoramus in military positions? Maybe they are more worried about having their pronouns not being disrespected than in getting some kind of grasping of reality or awareness of how things work out there on the actual field

Too bad.

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by Goba (here)
Months ago I told you that Russia had lost the war the day it started it.

Lots a smart comments where shot at me for that and all the Putin war lovers here ganged up - however I keep being right in my assessment.

Here's another one of those comments you don't like and clearly never understand.

You don't know what "lost the war" means.

Pyrrhic Victory:
Winning a battle but losing the war is a military mental model that refers to achieving a minor victory that ultimately results in a larger defeat, rendering the victory empty or hollow. It can also refer to gaining a small tactical advantage that corresponds to a wider disadvantage.

The Kherson retreat wasn't even a "battle". It was just that, a tactical retreat, the militarily correct thing to do in the much wider context. That's all, nothing more. The western media is crowing about it, but they don't know what "losing a war" means either.

The much wider context is that the world is gradually now being reshaped, and in a positive, encouraging way. Russia can't lose the war, and the important thing to focus on is how the transition to a different kind of world order will be managed. (Carefully, is one way to consider, but Putin is actually a very careful person. The transition seems to be in good hands.)

**Bill Ryan** · 12th November 2022 06:56

Posted by Mashika (here)
But i do have to wonder, how come they are taking over that same land they made sure was impossible to live on, and they can't figure out that they are now the ones in the difficult situation of surviving on that impossible to defend territory? Are they that dumb?

Well, it's all political. (For US/CA/EU consumption, and some here seem to be consuming it.

)

The Russian strategy is to demilitarize Ukraine — which they are doing. Ukraine barely has anything left. Sq.km of land means very little. (Though these sq.km are constitutionally now a part of the Russian Federation, and that's the way it will certainly stay.)

It's like squares on a chessboard. They don't matter either. It's the pieces on the board that count.

**Bill Ryan** · 12th November 2022 07:04

Posted by Mashika (here)
The movie "The best in hell" can be watched here, in case someone is interested

Notes:

- There's not a lot of dialogue but it is not needed in my opinion, the action speaks for itself

- No English subtitles, but not needed anyway, as explained above

- I can't/don't know how to download the movie from VK, but if someone knows please try and maybe it could be added to the Avalon library later on

- Very interesting that in this movie explosions from Tank shells mostly always show black smoke clouds. In reality, most times at first the smoke is white/grayish, it only turns black if there was some kind of fuel or powder at the target's location and it ignites, then it becomes black

https://vk.com/video-172867724_456240681

~~~

Here it is:

Best in Hell (2022) (600 Mb)
https://projectavalon.net/Best_in_Hell_(2022).mp4

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 07:05

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by Mashika (here)
But i do have to wonder, how come they are taking over that same land they made sure was impossible to live on, and they can't figure out that they are now the ones in the difficult situation of surviving on that impossible to defend territory? Are they that dumb?

Well, it's all political. (For US/CA/EU consumption, and some here seem to be consuming it.

)

The Russian strategy is to demilitarize Ukraine (which they are doing). Ukraine barely has anything left. Sq.km of land means very little.

It's like squares on a chessboard. They don't matter either. It's the pieces on the board that count.

If i had been commander of the Kherson operation, i would have also made sure everyone left across the river and beyond,but then i would have placed a small car-sized wooden horse at the very main entry road of Kherson city, as a parting gift for "the western partners"

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 07:22

And there you go

Now the UkroNazi troops are unable to cross to the left side and are 'trapped' in the right side, they are accumulating so many units and then they can't cross to attack, so they are sitting ducks, hopefully there will be no flood coming in soon

Another thing is, they are still advancing towards the east, for some odd reason, as a kind of mindless act, even though they know there's now a hard wall in which they will have to stop (the river without crossings) and then they can be completely obliterated by Grads, drones, mortars and the most terrible thing in this world to die by, the TOS-1A, and they will be unable to retreat fast enough to avoid Kalibr missiles either, and we know that no Air Defense system on this planet can take those out. They are done for

What.A.Dumb.Situation

I wish i could feel bad for them, but they are Nazi brutal beasts, so i don't. they get what they deserve. Although i know there are several units over there that are not Nazi and are just regular soldiers, for them i do feel pain, they were thrown into this madness without being able to get away, i'm sorry guys

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=9zU3gIujEvA

IF, and that's a real IF, some of the numbers i read/heard about are true, the casualties of the Ukrainian army could be between 20 to 40 thousand people if they continue their dumb approach to 'recovering Kherson' as they are doing right now. They will gather so many troops over there that they will be unable to supply them all and fail to retreat as there will not be enough APCs or IFVs to take them out in time before hell rains over them.

I mostly hope that there's no willing attack on the Russian side to cause this massive lose of life, because it would be major and it would most likely last less than 2 weeks before 40,000 people lose their lives, due to stupidity alone

So here's hoping the Russian side decides NOT to take advantage of the imbecility and ignorance of the command of the Ukrainian forces.

**shaberon** · 12th November 2022 07:26

Posted by Goba (here)
Doing so has been tough since the US has been giving the Ukrainians satellite verified target lists for HIMARS on the supply dumps.

That part is true, since Joker DPR just hacked US Delta system and dumped hundreds of pages of such targeting.

Right now I am not sure we can see it, since it appears some kind of automaton spammed a million word comment onto it, which is the worst thing about that site, the comments.

The date on the part of the report that is visible is June 10.

Meanwhile, Russia donates to Iran some captures for further study:

The weapons were a British-made NLAW anti-tank missile as well as an FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank guided missile and an FIM-92 Stinger man-portable air-defense system made by the United States.

Whereas a HIMARS missile was just...oh, donated by Ukraine to a "third country", transferred into Russian territory, to, I guess, be used to maximum effect without the appropriate launcher, and it was of course captured and is currently under review.

Remember, that is exactly why they do not like to even "turn on" an S400, because it is too easy for enemies to see what is going on and figure out how something works.

Well, with ISIS bragging of having killed over 5,000 Christians in recent days alone, and, since Nazi Sweden and Germany are helpless hosts of the relevant migrant wave, just saying...it is super easy for all manner of weaponry to be returned from Ukraine to various scenes there. We can only be definitely sure that at least 1/3 of it never reaches any "official" destination, and that several interested parties like to hunt Christians for a safari. One way to be sure to get rid of them is simply to have the U. S. carpet bomb your railroads and all buildings, and that will just get rid of everybody, and this must be a good thing, since they said it was the first time. And then the country was permanently frozen in time! If it wasn't for our military, there would hardly be any jobs there which...is exactly the same as it is here. We have only been occupied for almost a hundred years more, and are, apparently, also trapped at that same developmental stage.

Permanent war, or no one works.

Remember the War to End All Wars, over a hundred years ago? How's that working out??

Ukrainian Armed Forces have the guts to assault anything--credit due.

As far as the capability to achieve anything useful, rather than an abandoned, flat, muddy triangle, well no...I don't foresee anything like that actually happening.

I would guess Putin, and most of the rest of us, are not particularly comfortable with the callous disregard to dump thousands of human lives into "the burner", no one is exactly happy about that, but, death is a pretty cold business. Of course, he has almost nothing to do with it--he is sometimes given options by the General Staff. Those guys are so clever, they figured out how to partially-damage smaller electrical substations and...I've never heard of that. The so-called 9/11 that "we never heard of this idea" was obviously foreshadowed in movies like Inferno, and, even being drilled at...the exact same time from what I understand. So that was garbage. Still "pending review", like Nordstream and its dark ships, Covid, biolabs, MH117, and who knows how many "great capers", whose only viable option is an "official cover-up".

None of these western conflicts with Russia have ever succeeded, have they? What was that about a guy and a skyscraper? The last thoughts of the CEO of Bed, Bath, and Beyond, right there in charming Tribeca?

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 07:38

Posted by shaberon (here)
Remember, that is exactly why they do not like to even "turn on" an S400, because it is too easy for enemies to see what is going on and figure out how something works.

Most people don't know that Russia is mostly fielding 40/50 year old tech and avoiding, as much as possible to show modern capabilities due to this exact same reason, that it would give away the real thing, and we can't have that now, because obviously 'they' are watching and recording every single thing so they can figure out a strategy around what Russia has. So "no can't show" is the thing

Some weeks ago, a Kalibr missile was recorded doing "the impossible', and that was, turning mid air a few meters back to hit a target, and this was like around an area of 30/40 meters around the target, the missile went by like 10 meters then turned around mid air on the final stage and hit the target. someone at an apartment in Kiev or Lvov recorded this and posted it online, and then this 'feature' that no one knew about got exposed.

See? It's impossible to hide that kind of stuff, so now the US military industry is scrambling like crazy trying to figure out how it is possible that a missile with no wings and at terminal velocity suddenly does a 180 or so turn to hit a target that did not align with the missiles trajectory at all. Air defense systems now make no sense see? And then this exposes why most western AD have failed badly so far

So yes, what is exposed, and what's truly out there, are not the same thing, and there's a giant effort to prevent the true nature of it all from being displayed to the wrong side

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 08:03

This are "The eyes". You may think these are fake or photoshoped, but no. This girl went from being a happy little girl to an orphan that was sent to live with her grand mother because some afternoon their town got shelled and their parents died. I posted about her before on this same thread, there's a video of here too

What is there left to say? Look at her, she's just there, lost of hope, could not care less, everything is a lie

'Your lips move, but i can't hear what you're saying".

She has heard it all, she may look 10 or whatever, but her soul is now a hundred years old

Posted by Mashika (here)
The eyes thing is something i still ponder about after years

Back when i got to Mexico, lots of my friends, specially the ones i knew from before and some of the ones that knew me since we were 8 or so and who i met in vacation and bootcamps back then, told me that my eyes were 'crazy' and i knew something was being let known by how i looked because not long after some cops would stop me on the street and tell me if something was wrong and then say that i had an odd 'look' of sorts, or that my eyes looked like i was either drugged or in danger and stressed or something like that, so they would stop me to check on me as they thought i was going through something bad or running from something. It was the same thing several times over at least 2 years until i kind of learned how to look at other people without 'the eyes'

It kind of required to put my soul and mind into a peaceful state, of "nothing is going to happen, so you don't have to be full time on alert mode or looking at everyone as if they are a possible danger to yourself" and then finally i could relax and sit at peace or walk down the street without looking like someone is following me trying to kill me and i'm running away looking like an animal in danger

It's very hard to describe, but there's something very broken that takes a lot of time to fix, if ever, and i also learned to look at some of my friends who had terrible childhoods and they also had this odd look in their eyes, it was then easy to see when compared to other friends at school who had 'normal' lives

It's so terrible for sure, i wish no one had to go through it, and it's not only the eyes, it's the attitude, the lose of feelings, of emotions and of hope that goes with all that and it's at the very root.

It carries over to other things you do in life, like if you go to a coffee shop or bar, you sit against a wall so that no one is sitting behind you, if you go sleep alone, you make sure the door is closed and locked, and i kept a knife next to me when i was alone at my apartment because i felt insecure and weak while sleeping, and i did not know if someone would just break in at midnight and attack me! Something that was ridiculous if i think about it now, but back then i "could not take the risk"

All those kids look like any kid i may have met before over there and in other places, who had a massive bad childhood and has seen violence beyond what is reasonable, i know people like that still to this day

It's most soul destructive

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
https://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/st...55228443136001
...

**Mashika** · 12th November 2022 08:14

It is never a bad time to remind the world about this... lol

**shaberon** · 12th November 2022 09:16

Posted by Mashika (here)
See? It's impossible to hide that kind of stuff, so now the US military industry is scrambling like crazy trying to figure out how it is possible that a missile with no wings and at terminal velocity suddenly does a 180 or so turn to hit a target that did not align with the missiles trajectory at all. Air defense systems now make no sense see? And then this exposes why most western AD have failed badly so far

We knew about this over ten years ago, being one of the reasons that the actual commanders know that U. S. military faces "certain annihilation" and that aircraft carriers are obsolete.

No, it wasn't a video conveniently shot from an apartment in a conflict zone...I can't remember how we knew. But yes, the impossibly fast, and the maneuvering that makes a trapeze artist look like a chump...I guess is why the F-35 was worked on, so, we would have something to sell the Saudis or whatever gullible guinea pig happened to be afraid of everything, or, just under the boot of subjugation so their whole economy was rigged to be a weapons distribution system.

Same with even the food. They can deploy mobile 24/7 organic bakeries to Syria, and here...I have an organic wheat farm down the street, but we have no use of it. Here is a good German word:

Einkorn.

It means wheat with only one pair of alleles in its DNA. Spelt has two. That is what the Roman army marched on. Things these days are up to about forty-six.

What we call "wheat" is a dwarf hybrid introduced in the 1970s for high yield with extra Gluten, and then we tell people to go "Gluten free", whereas the brain actually requires it to make "happy chemicals" in the HTTP5 process. The main reason people think they are sick from Gluten is because the product was sprayed with Roundup just before harvest.

Russia may have got blindsided by western politics around 1917, but, they never fell for this Franken-food menace. That was already an intelligent moral victory. Pro-western India, by comparison, got a new generation of farmers committing suicide from hybrid and GMO issues.

My guess is that the HIMARS has no special features, which is why most of them get intercepted. Such an anti-personnel weapon does not really need to be so precisely accurate, since, I would guess a single one of those tungsten balls penetrating my flesh would put me out of action for a long time, and they squeeze out about 100,000. Whoever handed those out for someone to shoot at whatever they want will surely blacken and crack in Ice Hell for a very long time. That's actually sad, by the way, and I am trying to convince them to stop doing it, and all they do is steal my money.

There have got to be a lot of busy Valkyries over there, since there must be a lot of issues regarding who is going straight to Hell, and when you basically get killed by your own country for something you didn't want to do, I think you are off the hook. Unless, of course, you may have further issues. And they have to look into those things. It's worse than a job interview. Those who left with a clear conscience are probably few.