https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/...sound-and-fury
SITREP 7/14/23: Popov's Sound and Fury and Vilnius Signifying Nothing
Let’s begin with the most talked about news, which is that the Russian commander of the 58th Army was removed for allegedly questioning his higher-ups, i.e. Shoigu and Gerasimov.
General Ivan Popov was replaced by Lt. General Lyamin, who was his previous deputy in the 58th. A little background: Popov was a relatively young, fast-rising general who only became the commander of the 58th army relatively recently. The 58th is the flagship combined arms army of the Southern Military District, and is not only the storied army group which single handedly trashed Georgia in 2008, but has also recently been the group handling the entire Zaporozhye front, heroically repelling the AFU’s largest offensive of the war. Also, it should be noted that Gerasimov himself once commanded the 58th.
Now, to take you chronologically through what happened, Popov released an audio recording, which we now know was posted to an exclusively private group of his own subordinates and was not meant for wide release. This changes a lot of the calculus as it clearly shifts the perceived tone of what Popov was trying to accomplish. Initially, it would seem he was going ‘rogue’ like Prigozhin, and publicly denouncing the superiors, but in fact that’s not the case.
The person who leaked the audio was none other than State Duma deputy and respected ex-General, Andrey Gurulyov. Russian senator Turchak blamed him thusly:
Turchak said that yesterday's statement of General Popov was distributed in closed chats of the 58th army and its publication on the network is a personal initiative of General Gurulev: "The appeal of General Popov was not public and was posted in closed chats of commanders and fighters of the 58th Army. The fact that" deputy " Gurulev somehow got it and made a political show out of it, let it remain on his conscience. As well as his other statements and comments. And Ivan's conscience is clear. The Motherland can be proud of such commanders. The army was and remains outside politics."
First, let’s play the recording itself:
The AI translation above is a little rough around the edges, so here’s a fuller translation below, to follow along:
Address by Major General Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, to his soldiers.
Good night, my beloved gladiators, loved ones, relatives. [We are a] family. I had to gather my thoughts, a lot of events happened during the last two days.
Now I can confidently say this: I've been removed from my command, suspended from my post. Lieutenant General Lemin has arrived and taken command of the army. Here, I am waiting for my further fate—[my] military [fate], changes, some proposal for further service.
I was honest with you from the very beginning. I've been frank with you. I have shortened distances with all the gladiators from a soldier to a marshal—in our case, Major General Medvedev.
Because we are the same, all of us get to experience fear equally, all of us get to feel pain and hardship equally. I do not make any distinction between us whatsoever. And I have always been honest, as much as possible, from the first day of my arrival in our army.
So honestly I tell you, a difficult situation arose (came about) with the senior leadership, when it was necessary that I either remain silent and small-minded, and say what they wanted to hear, or to call things by their names.
In the name of you, in the name of our fallen friends, I had no right to lie, so I outlined all the problematic issues that exist today in the army: With respect to the combat work and supply [organization]. I called all things by their names and focused attention on the most important tragedy of the modern warfare. This is the deficiency of the counter-battery work and reconnaissance that have led to the deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery. I also raised a number of other problems and expressed them at the highest level frankly and with the utmost firmness.
With this, apparently, the senior command sensed some danger in me and promptly, in the course of one day, made up an order. They brought the order to the Minister of Defense, and they got rid of me.
As many commanders of regiments and divisions said today, our army could not be broken from the front by the forces of Ukraine, but instead we were hit from the rear by our senior commander, who treacherously and underhandedly decapitated the army in the most difficult and tense moment.
But at the same time I will remain available constantly to all soldiers, sergeants, and warrant officers of the army—to all—absolutely, 24/7, for any problems, domestic family, rear, or combat—any problems whatsoever. We continue to work as a group. I am available to you all the time, and I am honored to stand in the same line with you. I am proud and will do everything in my power even more to make it easier for you to fight and to keep alive as many of our fighting comrades as possible. I will continue to fulfill my combat mission.
The main thing is that in the name of those who will never return from the battlefields, in the name of their memory, in the name of spilled blood of soldiers and officers in Zaporozhye, we are obliged with you to defeat the enemy to repel his offensive and to create conditions for subsequent actions. And thus to honor the memory of our fallen comrades.
Always with you, always in touch,
Yours, [callsign] Spartak.
Let me first touch on why Gurulyov may have leaked this recording. It seems clear that Gurulyov, being a patriot and ex-military himself, felt that this should be heard and seen by all of Russia. In fact, Gurulyov previously commanded this very same 58th Army a decade ago, and obviously has reason to protect it even against the MOD or other politicians. From the beginning, Gurulyov has been an outspoken maximalist, almost akin to a Zhirinovsky stripe, calling for Russia to go all the way to the Polish border, destroy everything, etc. With that said, he’s never quarreled with the leadership of the country previously, to my knowledge, and is in good standing with everyone, rather than being a 5th/6th columnist type.
As usual, everyone is now jumping to conclusions. Very few are offering a balanced and nuanced approach to analyzing the situation. It’s mostly regurgitating Prigozhin’s talking points about Shoigu/Gerasimov being traitors, or once in a while the polar opposite, with accusations of Popov himself being a treasonous quibbler. Strelkov, for instance, fanned the flames with his usual: that Russia is now “one major military defeat away from a new ‘march on Moscow’ of the actual Russian army”.
First, let’s lay out the facts. About 97% of everything being thrown around is either anecdotal or apocryphal or both. There is precisely one guy on Telegram who made the unsupported claim that “Popov is loved by the troops” and this is instantly taken as gospel and used as proof that “Gerasimov/Shoigu are traitors!” and the heroic patriot Popov has come to save the kingdom.
The fact is, not much is known about Popov, though he appears upstanding and there are some reports of him being well-regarded. But there is also the fact that, according to open source info, he led the 11th Army Corps tasked with defending Balakleya in the Izyum area during last year’s Kharkov Offensive by the AFU. Which would mean he’s the one responsible for what many call a “disastrous retreat” of the Russian forces. I state this not to tarnish his name but simply to keep it balanced and expose the hypocrisy of many propagandists who now crawl from the woodwork to extol this unknown commander when they had previously ridiculed his own actions without even knowing it was him.
But is that to say he’s wrong or lying? No, much or all of what he says could be completely true. Gerasimov and Shoigu may be complete scoundrels for all we know. My point is simply to state that there isn’t enough true data to be jumping to such conclusions and feigning understanding of a likely complex subject.
The fact is, during war time, a soldier must obey his superiors because the superior has a much wider viewpoint, seeing things under his purview that the soldier doesn’t know about and hasn’t considered. The same goes in this situation. Popov’s chief criticism appears to stem from a perceived lack of artillery counter-battery support, and the attendant systems thereof, like presumably counter-battery radar units. Does anyone actually think that Shoigu or Gerasimov are underhandedly withholding such units from the front? If the units were available then they would likely be handed over. But since this is beyond Popov’s purview, he apparently wouldn’t know this.
Shoigu and Gerasimov perhaps had reason to actually withhold things from Prigozhin. After all, he enacted a self-fulfilling prophecy of attempting a coup on the country. They knew this, which is why they previously denied his request to have 200k troops under his command. In retrospect, we can see that this would’ve been disastrous, as Prigozhin was power-hungry and unstable.
But does the MOD have reason to withhold things from the actual Russian army proper? No, of course not—why would they? So what type of dimension do Popov’s complaints take on or represent? Is he speaking from the standpoint of equipment he feels is there but is not being given? Or perhaps from the standpoint that he believes this is more of a systemic training issue within the Russian army, and that proper tactics are not being carried out to suppress the enemy?
If we take the former option, we can say that he’s speaking out of order because the supreme commander is responsible for husbanding the equipment of the entire armed forces, and distributing it effectively to where it’s needed. Sure, the southern Zaporozhye front is important, but there are other fronts as well, and Popov may not understand the distributions taking place nor the total stockpiles of certain types of equipment in the armed forces. With that said, such things can obviously be solved through simple communications and talking; but we don’t know the character of their talks. Did he wildly complain and name-call? We have no way of knowing.
As to the latter possibility: if Popov’s complaint revolves around a systemic issue with the army’s tactics/doctrines themselves, then his complaint seems similarly dubious due to the fact that these are not things you can change in the middle of an offensive. And secondly, he’s the general of the entire 58th army, which means the tactics utilized therein are entirely under his purview. Thus, he would be responsible for adjusting and adapting the tactics to whatever need he feels he has.
But now, let’s cover the opposite perspective. Even if his complaints were invalid to some extent, is it right to boot him in the middle of an ongoing offensive? In general, such a thing is certainly not right, as relieving the general of an entire army group in the middle of ongoing kinetic action is flagrantly nonsensical.
So, what are the two main theories for why this could possibly have happened?
The first is that Shoigu and Gerasimov are merely ‘corrupt/treacherous/whatever’ and are trying to cement some perceived ‘hold on power’ by instantly squashing any and all dissent. Could it be true? Sure, anything is possible. But is there any evidence to such a disposition from Shoigu/Gerasimov? No, only the now disproven words from a raging treasonous oligarchic warlord who had a clear axe to grind. That would be Prigozhin, for those who missed my reference.
The second more ‘intriguing’ theory is that the Popov situation is somehow tied to the ongoing Prigozhin witchhunt. Ever since the Wagner rebellion, there’ve been stirrings of a hunt for other collaborators within the Russian MOD itself. For instance, in the past we know that General Mizintsev was viewed by the MOD as sort of sympathetic toward Wagner, having allegedly snuck them ammo from hidden stores. And he was later removed and given to Wagner, becoming one of their commanders.
Similarly, General Surovikin had a close affinity to the PMC unit and since the rebellion in June, there’s been continued rumor that Surovikin has been either arrested, placed on house arrest, or demoted/transferred in some way. At first, it may have seemed the province of pro-Ukrainian conspiracy theory, and I myself dismissed it as such. However, there is an intriguing new video showing Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov being asked by a journalist, “Where is Surovikin?”
Army General Sergei Surovikin "is now resting and is not yet available," said Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee.
Recall that Surovikin has not appeared in public since June 23, when his appeal to the leadership and fighters of the Wagner PMC was published
In connection with his long absence, speculation began to spread that Surovikin was allegedly arrested on suspicion of involvement in the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin or dismissed.
As it says in the above, Surovikin has not been seen now since June 23. That’s a very long “vacation” to be had in the midst of the most dire enemy offensive and highest level of combat intensity since last year. Russian news channel Readovka also allegedly ‘confirmed’ that Surovikin is on vacation in Rostov.
And for those that didn’t have their ear to the ground, about two weeks ago in some kind of leaked call from a friend, Surovikin’s own daughter reportedly claimed that everything was fine and he was ‘working’. Admittedly, though, her voice in the call appears strangely nervous to me.
The rest of the lengthy article here,
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/...sound-and-fury
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