The German-Saxon Mission
This analysis of a document written by the German military's Bundeswehr Transformation Centre was published in the same year that the Anglo-Saxon mission came out. I consider both documents to be two lenses of a set of binoculars that allow us to see clearly what is coming and now here. Good luck to All.
If you want to debate the reality of Peak Oil, I will decline as it is now a historical fact and for anyone who is evidence based undeniable. It is also undeniable to the factually inclined that there are NO alternative energy sources that can be developed and deployed fast enough to avoid the future described here, in my opinion.
Peak oil - requires - actions - irrespective - of - enduring - values. Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, 2010
Germany faced peak oil squarely. BioNTech created the counter-measure. Grohmann built the machines that build the countermeasure. The Pentagon is running distribution. Coincidence?
The 91 pages of PEAK OIL Security policy implications of scarce resources remains the bluntest and most forthright analysis of the expected global effects of Peak Oil, now a historical fact. Writing in 2010, lead author Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Witt of the Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, part of the German Military, eerily predicts our current world, and foreshadows the world that comes into view.
The shocking punchline:
Peak Oil will require Germany to - act - irrespective - of - enduring - values, specifically to “deal with” two categories of people. First, the countries unable to participate in future energy networks for lack of capabilities where conflict could erupt, and second, a large number of structurally unemployed people, mostly in the advanced industrial countries.
Let that sink in.
The study goes on to imply that after Peak Oil, countries that don’t have the political, social, military, or technical capability to ‘participate in future energy networks’ will face rising food prices, social unrest, famine, and intense competition for their, perhaps soon to be former, agricultural land.
Witt and team state that to prepare for Peak Oil “Western actors need to gain a nuanced overview of the political and social structures of countries in these regions and to - identify - and - support - those - powers - that - peacefully - advocate - change - in - their - countries.”
In any case, however, the private sector, non-fossil energy and non-fossile drive technologies (remember those three) will become a key competence in post-fossil societies, although the effort likely won’t be led by market forces…
By strange co-incidence, a German company, BioNTech, created the countermeasure, while another German company, Tesla-Grohmann, built the machines that make the actual doses of the countermeasure. As documented by Katherine Watt, the US Pentagon hired Pfizer et all to ‘demonstrate’ a large scale manufacturing process to create the counter-measure that by law requires no FDA approval.
And by even stranger coincidence, Tesla, (remember ‘the private sector’, ‘non-fossil energy and non-fossile drive technologies’ being key?’) bought Grohmann, now Tesla Grohmann, and has perhaps two of the world’s most advance factories for building ‘non-fossile drive technology’ coming to life just outside Berlin and in Austin, Texas.
Isn’t that strange.
“Psychological barriers cause indisputable facts to be blanked out and lead to almost instinctively refusing to look into this difficult subject in detail
Peak oil, however, is unavoidable.”
“The developments shown here make it clear that it is essential to secure the supply of energy to the economic cycle - in - sufficient - quantities to enable positive economic growth. A contraction in economic activity over an indefinite period of time represents a highly unstable state that will cause the system to collapse. It is hardly possible to estimate the security risks that such a development would involve.”
In case you missed it, Peak Oil is now a historical fact. See here and here.
Direct Quotes that eerily anticipate our world (and document the conclusion above)
Remember that all of these predictions come from 2010.
The fake fall of the Soviet Union…
- “Being aware of exceeding peak oil and in view of countries pursuing their own lasting advantages, there might be a deliberate restriction in supplies, for example, to preserve undeveloped oil resources” (p26, p2, )… “to establish themselves as newly emerging or reemerging regional or even global leading powers” p25, p2
…leading to Europe expelling the US occupation?…
- Soviet Union falls, Russian oil production tanks, Russia attempts to step on stage as a global leading power due to commodity strength and advanced military tech, including hypersonics. (All italics added by author)
- “Energy independence means that a region, a state or a union of states can secure their energy supply with resources existing on their own territory or the territory of the union of states.” p47, p1
- “an amicable agreement on - a - fair - distribution - mechanism for scarce resources could give rise to cooperation and conflict solutions, which, at best, could even have spillover effects on indivisible conflict subjects.” p62, p2
- “The expansion of renewable energies implies the existence of extended energy regions that connect energy sources and consumers through transnational and partly transcontinental energy networks. This widens the expansion and the nature of critical infrastructures. In the future, this may not only involve the transport of renewable energy via power lines, but also transport infrastructures for solar- produced hydrogen or processed solid or gaseous biomass. Technologically, these infrastructures resemble those for fossil energy sources and are thus located in similar geographic regions. States with the ability to contribute to and benefit from such energy networks owing to their geographical, climatic or technological situation will strive for cooperation and integration options which may increasingly affect security policy.” p85, p2
- “Gaining Moscow as a partner while achieving close energy interdependence and considering an even tighter integration may prove to be decisive for the future of German and European supply security. p68, p3
- “Relations among oil-importing countries would not be characterised by straight interdependences, but would … be … drawn even more into the slipstream of competition for limited resources (in this case, oil)…” p30, p5
- “In this context, it may be necessary to consider whether and how the European and Transatlantic security architectures could be adapted accordingly.” p68, p3
- Lead author Witt states clearly in this study that Germany should have three goals.
- 1. gaining and keeping Moscow as partner, and
- 2. Developing a pan-European interdependent regional energy system.
- 3. Aim for equitable distribution among countries that have needed capabilities.
- “Since a major part of the oil reserves remaining after peak oil is concentrated in the Strategic Ellipse, the oil infrastructure in this region is becoming increasingly important for many countries. Interruption of these energy infrastructures would also be an easy and worthwhile target for actors who are willing to use violence. Particularly at the trouble spots of this region’s future energy infrastructure, a comparatively huge amount of damage with global political and economic implications could be caused with very little resources and at low risk” p38, p3
- “which amongst other things could result in a shift in geopolitical power.” p8, p3
- Ukraine and the Black Sea are almost dead center of the strategic ellipse.
…With The International Community dis-united in opposing the Russian invasion of Ukraine…
- “threshold countries depending on oil imports in particular should be expected to reinforce their commitment in countries with large oil reserves by relying on a broad range of instruments.” p27, p2
The International Community supporting Ukraine
… and attacks on energy infrastructure…
- “Under conditions of peak oil, the appeal of energy infrastructures as targets for violent attacks or political blackmail will probably increase. These infrastructures …will require direct and indirect protective measures… Electric power grids will thus become even more critical infrastructures.” p83, p1
- Nord Stream pipeline explodes, US electrical substation attacks, tit for tat?
- What are ‘indirect protective measures’?
…Growing use of barter…
- “In general, goods and services that – similar to oil – strengthen the economic power of the producer countries or its possibilities to exert political influence would be particularly suitable as compensations for such package deals” p30, p4
- Barter deals help Russia and Iran avoid settlement issues presented by the Western financial system
… and gold to settle global trade outside the western financial system…
- “In light of peak oil, the share of oil traded on the global, freely accessible oil market might decrease in favour of oil traded via bilateral agreements. … the provision of attractive compensations – whether material or political in nature – by the importing countries would be of particular importance.” p29, p5
- Zoltan Pozsar’s Gold-mageddon Deconstructed, details the coming settlement of trade in physical gold, and how that will harm the western financial system.
…with restrictions on movement…
- “…peak oil is likely to cause … possibly huge restrictions in motorised private transportation...” p49, p2
- 15 Minute cities ready to roll out across the world, just like franchised burger joints. Here, Mayor, sign right here and we will build you a brand new McCity!
… and a crisis in the automobile industry…
- “If the restrictions are considerable, all economic sectors concerned – from the automobile industry through the construction business to tourism – would experience a downturn. The "mobility crisis" could turn into an important new aspect of the economic crisis.” p49, p2
- Cathy Wood and The Elon: “potentially, the biggest financial crisis ever caused by defaults in the automobile sector.”
…Supply chain breakdowns…
- “A possible consequence would be bottlenecks in the supply of existentially important goods.” p49, p3
- The big challenges for supply chains in 2022
…and fertilizer shortages … food prices rising …
- “If nothing else, existentially important goods include - food - potential supply bottlenecks would above all jeopardise countries with high food import quotas since the cost of importing food is bound to become very high.” p50, p1
- “The crisis would concern all food traded over long distances, not just single regions or products. Regions that are structurally already at risk today would however be particularly affected.”
- “Crop yields also depend on oil. The abdication of machines or oil-based fertilizers and other chemicals to increase crop yield would therefore have a negative effect on crops.”
- “The increase in food prices would be long-term and would not be the result of a one- off crop failure or a similar situation.”
- “Competition between the use of farmland for food production on the one hand and for the use of producing biofuels on the other hand could worsen food shortages and crises.+
- The Fertilizer Shortage Will Persist in 2023 Less food equals less people. The World population probably did not hit 8 billion, which was only an estimate, and is now declining, kind of rapidly.
… skyrocketing Structural Unemplyment… that “can evolve into a major economic problem…”
- “These crises are likely to emanate from highly industrialised importing countries” p64, p2
- “This economic upheaval could, however, initially result in significant transformation unemployment, … a special form of structural unemployment that can evolve …. into a major economic problem.” p54, p2
- “Societies that are in the process of transformation can in part resort to the anchor function and orientation aid of countries and societies that have already completed the transformation process and from whose successes and failures consequences can be drawn for their own actions.” p54, p3
- Countries can learn from “countries and societies that have already gone through the transformation process?” What does that mean? Who has gone throught such a transformation? Trudeau (0:26), Schwabb, and Rothschild seem to agree.
- “…people’s confidence in state institutions as well as politics would be considerably shaken. … which can express itself, for example, in "dressing down" politicians” p55, p2
- Remember Maxine Waters? telling her supports to literally harrass opposing politicians?
… an increase and change in Oil-related conflicts:
- “intensified conflicts between importing countries could develop, for example when the exploration of or direct access to cultivation areas is at stake.” p63, p2
- Both China and America are importing countries. With the advent of Hypersonic carrier killers, who is more important to the world economy?
- In 2021, China consumer 15.7 million barrels of oil per day. Looked at another way, China supported a growing economy and maintained 91.7 workers per barrel. The US consumed 18.7 million barrels of oil per day. The US industrial growth shrank, while only maintaining 17.7 workers per barrel.
- Yet China grossly outproduces the US in gross - industrial - output.
- Car Production: China 13.9 million units, US 2.73 million units
- Industrial Growth: China 9%, US -2.89%
- Who is more important to Mr. Global?
Foreshadowing the future: a global tipping point
Lientenant Colonel Witt and team stated the problem this way:
“In complex systems, an energy withdrawal will not necessarily lead to a proportional reduction in complexity alone but, in extreme cases, to a collapse.” p59, p9
(Beginning on Page 56)
“One fundamental problem when it comes to deriving the security challenges posed by peak oil is the systemic nature of the risk of scarce resources or high resource prices in a complex economic environment … The scale of potential peak-oil-induced setbacks in economic growth can include what is referred to as a “tipping point”…
“…Tipping points are characterised by the fact that when they are reached, a system no longer responds to changes proportionally, but chaotically.”
“At first glance, it seems obvious that a phase of slowly declining oil production quantities would lead to an equally slowly declining economic output. Peak oil would bring about a decline in global prosperity for a certain length of time, during which efforts could be made to develop technological solutions to replace oil. Economies, however, move within a narrow band of relative stability. Within this band, economic fluctuations and other shocks are possible, but the functional principles remain unchanged and provide for new equilibriums within the system. Outside this band, however, this system responds chaotically…”
“From the perspective of economics, at least one border of the band can be identified: an economic tipping point exists where, for example as a result of peak oil, the global economy shrinks for an undeterminable period. In this case a chain reaction that would destabilise the global economic system and cause a clear shift in the analytical framework for all other security consequences would be imaginable. The course of this potential scenario could be as follows:”
“The overall production of conventional and unconventional oil would decline.”
- “Peak oil would occur and it would not be possible, at least in the foreseeable future, to entirely compensate for the decline in the production of conventional oil with unconventional oil or other energy and raw material sources…”
‘In - the - short - term, the global economy would respond proportionally to the decline in oil supply.’
- “Increasing oil prices would reduce consumption and economic output. This would lead to recessions.”
- “The increase in transportation costs would cause the prices of all traded goods to rise. Trade volumes would decrease. For some actors, this would only mean losing sources of income, whereas others would no longer be able to afford essential food products.” (Sri Lanka)
(This is about where we are right now on January 9th, 2022)
- “National budgets would be under extreme pressure. Expenditure for securing food supplies (increasing food import costs) or social spending (increasing unemployment rate) would compete with the necessary investments in oil substitutes and green tech. Revenues would decrease considerably as a result of recession and necessary tax reductions.”
“In - the - medium - term, the global economic system and all market-oriented economies would collapse.”
- “Economic entities would realise the prolonged contraction and would have to act on the assumption that the global economy would continue to shrink for a long time.”
- “…The banking system, stock exchanges and financial markets could collapse altogether.”
- “…A completely new system state would materialise.”
- “Nevertheless, for illustration purposes here is an outline of some theoretically plausible consequences:”
- “Banks left with no commercial basis. Banks would not be able to pay interest on deposits as they would not be able to find creditworthy companies, institutions or individuals. As a result, they would lose the basis for their business.”
- “Loss of confidence in currencies. Belief in the value-preserving function of money would dwindle. This would initially result in hyperinflation and black markets, followed by a barter economy at the local level.”
- “Collapse of value chains. The division of labour and its processes are based on the possibility of trade in intermediate products. It would be extremely difficult to conclude the necessary transactions lacking a monetary system.”
- “Collapse of - unpegged - currency systems. If currencies lose their value in their country of origin, they can no longer be exchanged for foreign currencies. International value-added chains would collapse as well.”
- “Mass unemployment. Modern societies are organised on a division-of- labour basis and have become increasingly differentiated in the course of their histories. Many professions are solely concerned with managing this high level of complexity and no longer have anything to do with the immediate production of consumer goods. The reduction in the complexity of economies that is implied here would result in a dramatic increase in unemployment in all modern societies.”
- “National bankruptcies. In the situation described, state revenues would evaporate. (New) debt options would be very limited, and the next step would be national bankruptcies.”
- “Collapse of critical infrastructures. Neither material nor financial resources would suffice to maintain existing infrastructures. Infrastructure interdependences, both internal and external with regard to other subsystems, would worsen the situation.”
- “Famines. Ultimately, production and distribution of food in sufficient quantities would become challenging.”
Lieutenant Colonel Witt and team’s suggested response
“Germany’s actionability depends on functioning infrastructures. A targeted preparation for unknown challenges is difficult but not entirely impossible.” p60, p2
“the most difficult part of preparing for drastic shortages in the resource base of the German economy will probably be the task of implementing suitable preventive measures.
“Therefore, the quest for energy independence will, in the foreseeable future, be directed towards regenerative energy sources… The generation of energy using wind, sun, geothermal power and biomass is facilitated by the respective geographical features. However, one region or one state alone hardly ever has conditions favourable for all kinds of regenerative power generation. The goal, therefore, are composite projects which diversify the energy supply transnationally and over a very large area, adapting it optimally to the geographic features – wind power at the coasts, solar energy in southern latitudes, hydropower at suitable locations, and biomass on available farmland.” p47, p1
“global companies that could considerably push forward such a process. As a result, a virtually globally supported and, to a certain extent, considerably - accelerated - transition - towards - renewable - energies could be associated with “win-win” situations combining economic, social and ecological interests and which would be nourished by the involvement of many and, most importantly, cooperating players.” p64, p4
The paradigm shift connected with this – less efficiency, more robustness – contradicts economic logic and can therefore only partly be left to market forces.” p932, p2
- In other words, the key is to develop the technologies that Tesla just happens to have developed, which can only partly be left to market forces…”
- “an amicable agreement on - a - fair - distribution - mechanism for scarce resources could give rise to cooperation and conflict solutions, which, at best, could even have spillover effects on indivisible conflict subjects.” p62, p2
- “..a targeted development of training capabilities for security forces of supported states (military assistance / foreign internal defence) could be considered. This “stabilisation light” could potentially reduce the total number of deployed armed forces and would thus be more commensurate with the Western industrial nations’ potentially limited actionability under the conditions of peak oil.” p77, p4
- Consider this in light of Ukraine and Poland today and the quotes on states that don't have the needed capabilities and therefore need to be ‘dealt with.
- “New integration dynamics could be created, for example, if - closer - institutional - and - economic - cooperation became necessary for the functioning of increasingly volatile energy markets beneficial to all market players.” p64, p3
- After an economic collapse, emanating the the most industrialized western nations, cooperation may become necessary.
What about other suppliers of oil or natural gas?
- “However, closer energy relationships with countries of the Middle East, in particular with countries in the Persian Gulf region, are by no means determined by German or European action options alone. Similar to the situation in Central Asia, these relations must be established in an environment that is increasingly influenced by the regional involvement of other countries such as China, Russia and India, which shape their partnerships with the region’s countries mostly - without - demanding - ethical - values or political conditions and which are thus preferred as partners.” p70, p3
- “Regardless of the motivation behind China’s and India’s political approaches, in the face of global peak oil and the fact that these threshold countries with their policy of non- interference have, in terms of energy policy, successfully gained ground or are increasingly trying to do so in regions that are most important in the future, industrialised countries could face a loss of influence in the competition for scarce oil reserves.” p. 29, p3
- “As oil production decreases, similar technologies and infrastructures may initially be employed to expand the use of natural gas. Contrary to oil, natural gas cannot simply be shipped but must be transported as gas via a pipeline or, after compression or liquefaction (liquefied natural gas (LNG)), with special-purpose tankers. Pipeline systems, however, which currently carry the major part of natural gas produced to the consumers, are regionally restricted. Instead of one world market for natural gas there hence are, in fact, several regional markets with limited options for the diversification of supplier relationships, in addition to associated energy security challenges. The pipelines, favoured for transport of natural gas to the customer countries, do not only span countries and regions but frequently also political and economic alliances and cultural areas. Therefore, conflicts over routes, construction and the security of pipelines may gradually increase. This does not only concern the bypass of states and regions that are considered to be unsafe. States that will not be included in the economic development of the reserves or the construction of pipelines also have to be dealt with.” p42, p2
- “In order to prevent a restriction of capabilities and deployment options of the Bundeswehr, alternative solutions to oil-based fuels would be necessary in the short term. While these solutions, such as coal liquefaction or in some cases natural gas liquefaction, are possible and conceivable in principle, they would entail considerable political and economic efforts. They would require considerable investments and radical industrial policy decisions. Considering the challenges society as a whole would face as a result of peak oil, it seems unlikely that this could be accomplished even in case of an emergency.” p88, p3
What about nuclear and renewables?
- “Leaving the problems of safety and ultimate waste disposal aside, many countries see nuclear energy as a comparatively cheap form of energy which also helps to reduce CO2 emissions. However, more nuclear energy would at least increase the statistic probability of accidents occurring which, if exceeding a certain severity, may have dramatic and destabilising regional ecological consequences…” p43, p2
- “Nuclear energy could factor in all four of the conflict constellations above, not so much regarding nuclear fuel or the energy produced, but rather regarding associated technologies or their risks such as the abuse of nuclear material.” p63, p1
- “The expansion of renewable energies implies the existence of extended energy regions that connect energy sources and consumers through transnational and partly transcontinental energy networks. This widens the expansion and the nature of critical infrastructures. In the future, this may not only involve the transport of renewable energy via power lines, but also transport infrastructures for solar- produced hydrogen or processed solid or gaseous biomass. Technologically, these infrastructures resemble those for fossil energy sources and are thus located in similar geographic regions. States with the ability to contribute to and benefit from such energy networks owing to their geographical, climatic or technological situation will strive for cooperation and integration options which may increasingly affect security policy. This could create opportunities for less developed states or regions as well as for supra-regional stability, but could also draw new lines of separation and conflict. Against this background, the incorporation of states – perhaps bordering those energy regions – that are unable to participate in energy networks for lack of capabilities will be a special challenge and could carry potential for conflict in case of failure.” p85, p2
- “Transformation towards post-fossil societies depends to a major extent on the availability of non-fossil technologies. In this context too, sustainable solutions seem problematic. Substituting one dependence for another, such as, for instance, a dependence on rare metals, is not an effective long-term approach. In any case, however, non-fossil energy and drive technologies will become a key competence in post-fossil societies.” p92, p2
Loss of competence in Government and the rise of Private Companies
- “On the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that the people’s confidence in state institutions as well as politics would be considerably shaken. This confidence is likely to dwindle even more in societies in which it is already weak – in particular if it is becoming obvious in crisis regions that governments have in the past failed to develop suitable solution strategies and provide orientation for society during this period of transition. This personalised loss of confidence, which can express itself, for example, in "dressing down" politicians, could – depending on intensity and duration – consolidate into a general and lasting crisis of confidence towards central national institutions and their ability to solve problems. A society, however, cannot survive without confidence. Sullenness with politics can give rise to lethargy or fatalism and can increase the likelihood of growing political instability and extremism. Via indirect legitimisation chains, this national loss of confidence could also have a negative impact on the legitimisation, functionality and actionability of supranational organisations and institutions as well.” p55, p2
- “ - private - companies could find themselves in a very strong position in certain fields that would give them options of action at the same eye level as governments but would also force them to occasionally assume originally governmental functions in order to continue pursuing their primarily economic targets.” p39, p5
- “The paradigm shift connected with this – less efficiency, more robustness – contradicts economic logic and can therefore only partly be left to - market forces - ” p932, p2
- “- private - business enterprises on the other hand could increasingly perform governmental functions and tasks. Focus would be placed on three areas in particular: the more intense dispute about production licences, the assumption of governmental security tasks, and the protection of oil infrastructures.” p34, p1
- In the three quotes above, Lieutenant Colonel Witt repeatedly specifies private corporations, not publicly traded, who can funnel money into projects with little oversight.
- He also suggests that the opportunity might come as the public becomes dissillusioned with government failures to solve economic problems.
Especially in the competition for agricultural land
- “As these strategic commitments in the agricultural sector are expected to expand, it will not be easy to distinguish state from private-sector or even sub-state actors and interests in terms of land acquisition.” p45, p3
- Top 10 Largest Farmland Owners In The US In 2023
- “.. intensified conflicts between - importing - countries could develop, for example when the exploration of or direct access to cultivation areas is at stake.” p62, p2
- “Thus, pressure on, and competition for, agricultural land should rise disproportionately. Provided that it has not been possible to achieve a globally sustainable production of biomass, increased disputes about land as a strategic resource would ensue - one - of - the - oldest - causes - of - conflict. p45, p2
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