by Anti-Spiegel
26 September 2024 02:36
Until now, Russia's nuclear doctrine has stipulated that Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its existence as a state was threatened, if it was itself attacked with nuclear weapons, or if its nuclear deterrence capabilities were threatened. Russia has so far denied itself the right to carry out a preemptive nuclear strike, as the USA has allowed itself in its nuclear doctrine.
The West's constant escalation in Ukraine, where military support was once limited to body armor and medical equipment but now includes heavy battle tanks, fighter planes and cruise missiles, has increased calls in Russia to finally put the West in its place. This is all the more true since the West is openly discussing allowing Ukraine to attack deep in Russia's hinterland with weapons supplied by the West.
I have reported extensively on the discussion initiated by the Russian expert Professor Karaganov about finally not only announcing red lines to the West, but also reacting to their crossing by having Russia attack military targets in NATO as a warning, possibly with nuclear weapons, to make it clear to the West that Russia is not bluffing. You can read the details of his argument in this interview , which I have translated.
The discussions in the West about allowing Ukraine to attack deep in Russia's hinterland with weapons supplied by the West are a constant topic in the Russian media , and there too it is openly discussed that the nuclear deterrence that prevented the Cold War from becoming a hot war will only work if the West understands that Russia is also prepared to use its nuclear weapons.
The West seems to doubt this, as the West's continued escalation steps show. It has recently become known that Selensky does not want to negotiate with Russia after all , but is demanding more weapons and attacks on Russia from the USA and the West. The fact that there are no voices in the West that want to put a stop to this confirms that the West has lost its fear of nuclear weapons.
Now the Russian government has reacted and on Wednesday the Kremlin published a statement by Russian President Putin on changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, which Putin made at a meeting of the Russian Security Council. Russia has obviously significantly reduced its limits on the use of nuclear weapons.
I have translated Putin's entire statement and added explanations to help understand what was said.
The statement began with a long introduction:
"Good afternoon, dear colleagues!
Today we are holding a scheduled meeting on nuclear deterrence, which takes place twice a year. And on today's agenda is an issue related to updating the foundations of the state policy on nuclear deterrence.
Along with the military doctrine, this is the document that officially defines and describes in detail the Russian nuclear strategy. First of all, it sets out the basic principle of the use of nuclear weapons, namely that the use of nuclear weapons is an extreme measure to protect the country's sovereignty.
I emphasize that we have always approached such issues very responsibly. Realizing the enormous power of these weapons, we have strove to strengthen the international legal basis for global stability and prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their components.
Today, the nuclear triad remains the main guarantee of the security of our state and citizens and a tool for maintaining strategic parity and balance of power in the world.
At the same time, we note that the current military and political situation is changing dynamically, and we must take this into account. This includes the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies.
It is important to predict the development of the situation and, accordingly, adapt the provisions of the strategic planning document to the current realities.
Over the past year, specialists from the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Security Council apparatus and other bodies have conducted an in-depth, comprehensive analysis and assessed the need to adjust our approaches to the possible use of nuclear weapons. Based on the results of this work, a number of clarifications were proposed regarding the definition of the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons.
For example, the draft expands the category of states and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence, as well as the list of military threats to neutralize which nuclear deterrence measures are taken."
So much for the introduction, then things got interesting:
"I would like to draw your attention to something else. The updated version of the document proposes that aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear-weapon state, should be considered a joint attack on the Russian Federation."
Putin is saying that if, for example, Ukraine (a non-nuclear weapons state) attacks targets deep in Russia's hinterland with its own drones, as has happened several times since last week, and is supported by the USA (a nuclear weapons state) by, for example, providing Ukraine with the necessary reconnaissance data or ground maps for navigation without GPS , Russia will view this as a joint attack on Russia, with all the military and nuclear consequences that this entails.
Putin then became even more specific:
"The conditions for Russia's transition to the use of nuclear weapons are also clearly spelled out. We will consider this possibility if we receive reliable information about a massive launch of aerospace assets and their crossing of our state border. I am talking about strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft."
Last week there were attacks from Ukraine in which well over a hundred drones were fired at Russia at once. Above all, however, this is likely to be a warning to NATO, as the Baltic states and Scandinavian countries are openly talking about preventive attacks on military targets in Russia. In such a case, Russia would probably respond with nuclear weapons, especially since in such an attack Russia does not even know whether some of the incoming missiles are nuclear-armed.
Putin continued:
"We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State. All these issues have been agreed with the Belarusian side and the President of Belarus. This also applies in the event that the enemy poses a critical threat to our sovereignty with conventional weapons."
Since NATO is massively building up its military presence in Poland on the Belarusian border, this point was important to prevent NATO from believing that Russia might shy away from protecting Belarus.
Finally, Putin said:
"Finally, I would like to point out that all clarifications are very precisely calibrated and correspond to the current military threats and risks in relation to the Russian Federation."
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, commented on the decisions on Telegram in even clearer terms. I have translated his post (emphasis as in the original).
Start of translation:
The eagerly awaited event
The Russian President has outlined approaches to revising the foundations of state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence. The main changes are as follows:
1 Aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the support or participation of a nuclear-armed country, is considered a joint attack. It is clear to everyone which countries we are talking about.
2 An equivalent nuclear defense is being established for Belarus, our closest ally. To the “delight” of Poland and numerous NATO pygmies.
3 The massive launching and crossing of our borders by enemy aerospace assets, including aircraft, missiles and drones, may, under certain conditions, become a reason for the use of nuclear weapons. A reason to think not only of the corrupt neo-Nazi regime, but of all of Russia's enemies who are driving the world towards a nuclear catastrophe.
It is clear that any situation giving rise to nuclear defense must be assessed in conjunction with other factors, and the decision to use nuclear weapons is made by the Supreme Commander. However, it is precisely the change in the normative conditions for the use of nuclear components by our country that can cool the ardor of opponents who have not yet lost their instinct for self-preservation. And for the fools, only the Roman maxim remains: caelo tonantem credidimus Jovem Regnare…
End of translation
Source: Thomas Roeper russo-german journalist reporting from Russia
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