Six people missing after superyacht sinks off Italian coast

[scotslad]

It was a big deal (in more ways than one.)

So, in 2011, Mike Lynch, the founder of Autonomy Corporation, sold the company to Hewlett-Packard (HP) for $11.7 billion. At the time, this was one of the largest tech deals ever made, particularly notable as it involved a British software company and a major American corporation. However, the acquisition soon became mired in controversy.

The Court Case

Within a year of the acquisition, HP wrote down the value of Autonomy by $8.8 billion, alleging that Autonomy had misrepresented its financials by inflating revenue and profits. HP accused Lynch and his CFO, Sushovan Hussain, of fraud, leading to multiple legal battles.

Civil Case in the UK

In 2019, a civil lawsuit was brought against Lynch in the UK High Court. The judge ruled in 2022 that HP had substantially succeeded in its claims that Autonomy's financials had been manipulated. Although the court agreed with HP, the damages awarded were likely to be far less than the $5 billion claimed by HP.


Criminal Case in the US

Lynch then faced 16 charges of wire fraud, securities fraud, and conspiracy in the US. He was extradited in 2023 after a long legal battle to prevent it. The trial, which began in March 2024 in San Francisco, resulted in Lynch being acquitted of all charges in June 2024.

Then this happens...

Shortly after his acquittal, Mike Lynch is then involved in a tragic incident. His luxury yacht, the Bayesian, apparently capsized off the coast of Sicily during a violent storm. Lynch and several others, including his daughter, were on board. While 15 people were rescued, Lynch and his daughter were among those found dead.

Questions. Questions.

Given the complexity and high-profile nature of the legal battles and Lynch's sudden death:

1. To what extent did other executives or employees at Autonomy participate in or have knowledge of the alleged financial misreporting?

2. Was HP's massive write-down a strategic move to manage its finances, or were there other motivations behind its aggressive legal pursuit of Lynch?

3. While the yacht's capsizing was officially due to a storm, are there any underlying factors, such as maintenance issues, criminal intent or potential negligence, that have not been fully explored?

4. How will Lynch's death and the unresolved legal matters affect his remaining business ventures and investments, particularly in companies like Darktrace?

Then again, it makes you think whether..


1. Was the timing of Mike Lynch's yacht incident truly coincidental, or could it have been orchestrated to silence him after his acquittal?

2. Could the intense legal pressure on Lynch, including the civil and criminal cases, have been part of a broader strategy to discredit him and protect powerful interests?

3. Was the $8.8 billion write-down by HP a genuine reflection of Autonomy's financial situation, or was it a strategic move to cover up internal issues or protect financial interests?

4. Have all factors (and possibilities) leading to the sinking of Lynch’s yacht been thoroughly investigated, or could there have been foul play involved in the incident?

5. Was Lynch’s extradition to the US a case of overreach by powerful entities seeking to control or neutralize him, using the legal system as a tool?

6. Was the death of Lynch’s associate, Chamberlain, in a car accident genuinely accidental, or could it have been a targeted act to silence him?

7. Are there broader political or corporate agendas at play in the actions taken against Lynch, beyond the official narratives provided?

I have to confess. I have no answers, but the more one thinks, the more questions it raises... (plot thickens?)

[ExomatrixTV]

Posted by scotslad (here)
...

If it was an assassination attack of some sort ... have they used directed weather warfare technologies?

• Maybe the "ultra elite" can hire a certain specialized group who can arrange that to happen for a large sum of money.

cheers,
John 🦜🦋🌳

[jaybee]

Posted by ExomatrixTV (here)

Posted by scotslad (here)
...

If it was an assassination attack of some sort ... have they used directed weather warfare technologies?

• Maybe the "ultra elite" can hire a certain specialized group who can arrange that for a large sum of money.

cheers,
John 🦜🦋🌳

It certainly looks like they could (and did..?)....

Lynch's co defendant 'died' in a more mundane way ... mowed down by a car while jogging...

I don't understand the Advanced AI High Tech that it was all about - but - in this day and age I think they must have been trading in Defence Cyber Technology that could be the difference between winning or losing wars...? Very High Stakes...?

[ExomatrixTV]

• WTF?

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=OLM0x2-W35k

This is INSANE - The SAME thing happened to the Iran president when his helicopter crashed after a "Freak Weather event" Took place causing his Helicopter to crash... That day they removed ALL weather data in that area. The SAME thing is happening with this super yacht disaster that apparently took the lives of Mike Lynch his daughter and many more... how is this possible? They do Not want us to see what happened!

• dutch 🇳🇱 (+ Multi-Language Options). 🦜🦋🌳

[Hermoor]

Two prior yachting incidents have become regular case studies for Captains and crew studying for their sea survival qualifications.

M.Y. Nadine's sinking in 1996 comprised of a long list of human and technical errors. The single biggest lesson was Captains must not allow pushy yacht owners and principal charter guests to sway them into unsafe situations.

https://www.boatinternational.com/ya...l-street-yacht

S.Y. Drum's capsizing in the 1985 Fastnet Race also provided many valuable lessons to learn. At the time she was owned by Simon Le Bon.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=y3-6rrU0Ij0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drum_(yacht)

My father competed in the most notorious Fastnet Race of them all in 1979. He also guest Captained Drum after Simon Le Bon sold her on to a new owner. The designer/naval architect of both Drum and Bayesian (and so many others) is the Kiwi Ron Holland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Holland

Here's some footage showing a little of what was involved in Bayesian getting her new mast.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=OqAS-eCM9B0

It's bizarre that the bodies of Lynch and his daughter were recovered from Bayesian's master cabin. It's madness to be below decks in your cabin when you should be at the muster station and preparing to abandon ship into a liferaft or tender.

In the middle of summer in Sicily you could easily survive at least 24/48 hours in the water with your lifejacket on providing you were in reasonably good health and not badly injured.

I must emphasise that weird things can and do happen at sea in extreme weather, especially at night. But questions must be asked about the standard of the watch keeping; how a practically unsinkable yacht still managed to sink so quickly and what exactly lead to these circumstances in the first place.

Captain Karsten Borner and his first mate rescued the liferaft survivors.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=mPWA6urnB1g

Borner (on S.Y. Sir Robert Baden Powell) said that Bayesian was behind him. The yacht is much smaller than Bayesian. The general rule of thumb is she was theoretically much more vulnerable than Bayesian.

https://www.superyachttimes.com/yach...t-baden-powell

If Bayesian was behind Sir RBP, then it would have been an offshore wind blowing from the beach towards the open sea. The waves would have been quite small and not particularly dangerous. Getting into both liferafts and even the tender is much easier in smaller waves. It would be easy and fast for Bayesian to U-turn in the anchorage and run out to the open sea to get out of the twister's path.

Captain Borner said elsewhere that Bayesian sunk in two minutes. That is mind-boggling and makes virtually zero conventional sense.

The liferaft in the footage is for 12 people. Was Bayesian unable to launch her second liferaft? Why? Two crew, or even one strong one, can launch such a liferaft. You just pick it up and throw it overboard. It's a rapid process. Launching the tender is not a rapid process. You need to use a davit/crane and it's relatively slow and pfaffy. The tender should have been in the water already unless they were expecting gnarly weather. If they were expecting gnarly weather, then the watch keeper and the entire crew would have been on high alert all night. In such circumstances it is prudent and common to have two watch keepers.

Do the parasites really have secret technologies capable of generating twisters? That would be a stretch, but perhaps not a huge one. It's a real stretch to think they could generate a twister or twisters with the pinpoint precision required to strike Bayesian. At best it may be a blunderbuss approach and the yacht sinking at all, let alone so quickly, still doesn't make sense.

[Eric J (Viking)]

Investigators in the superyacht sinking off the coast of Sicily that left seven people dead earlier this week are considering manslaughter charges in the case, judicial sources told Reuters.

The public prosecutor's office of Termini Imerese in Sicily is investigating possible negligence on the part of the crew of the yacht when it was besieged by storms while anchored.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/deadly...e-manslaughter

[Vangelo]

Italian prosecutors open a manslaughter investigation into yacht sinking off Sicily
source:
AUGUST 24, 202410:23 AM ET
Alberto Lo Bianco/LaPresse via AP

ROME — Prosecutors in Italy said Saturday they have opened an investigation into culpable shipwreck and multiple manslaughter after a superyacht capsized during a storm off the coast of Sicily, killing seven people onboard. They included British tech magnate Mike Lynch and his daughter.

Termini Imerese prosecutor Ambrogio Cartosio confirmed the investigation has been launched, but said no suspect is currently identified.

“We are only in the initial phase of the investigation. We can’t exclude any sort of development at present,” he told reporters at a news conference.

Cartosio said his team will carefully consider each possible element of responsibility, including those of the ship's captain, the crew, individuals in charge of supervision, the ship-builder and others.

Dive and recovery teams search for a final missing person off Porticello harbor near Palermo on Aug. 22, three days after the British-flagged luxury yacht Bayesian sank.

“For me, it is probable that offences were committed, that it could be a case of manslaughter, but we can only establish that if you give us the time to investigate," he said.

The main question investigators are focusing on is how a sailing vessel deemed “unsinkable” by its manufacturer, Italian shipyard Perini Navi, sank while a nearby sailboat remained largely unscathed.

Prosecutors said the event was “extremely rapid” and information they gained seemed pointing to a “downburst,” a localised, powerful wind that descends from a thunderstorm and spreads out rapidly upon hitting the ground.

Initially, Civil protection officials said they believe the yacht, which featured a distinctive 75-meter (246-feet) aluminum mast, was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout.

Investigators were also asked why the crew was almost entirely saved, except for the chef, while six passengers remained trapped in the hull.

Local official confirmed that most of the bodies recovered were found in the same part of the ship — on the left side and closer to the surface — suggesting that passengers had sought safety in the cabins where the last air bubbles had formed.

Deputy Prosecutor Raffaele Cammarano said it was likely that the passengers were asleep, adding that one of the main focus of the investigation is to ascertain whether they were alerted by someone.

Mike Lynch remains missing after a luxury yacht sank off of Sicily's coast. Lynch, who sold his tech firm Autonomy to Hewlett-Packard in 2011, had recently been acquitted of fraud charges related to the sale.

Cammarano confirmed that one person was on watch in the cockpit.

Rescuers on Friday brought ashore the last of seven bodies from the sinking of The Bayesian, a 56-meter (184-foot) British-flagged luxury yacht that went down in a storm near the Mediterranean island in southern Italy early Monday. The sailboat was carrying a crew of 10 people and 12 passengers.

The seventh victim was Hannah Lynch, 18, the daughter of Mike Lynch., whose body was recovered Thursday. He had been celebrating his recent acquittal on fraud charges with his family and the people who had defended him at trial in the United States. His wife, Angela Bacares, was among the 15 survivors.

Rescuers struggled for four days to find all the bodies, making only slow headway through the interior of the wreck lying on the seabed 50 meters (164 feet) below the surface.

The other five victims are Christopher Morvillo, one of Lynch’s U.S. lawyers, and his wife, Neda; Jonathan Bloomer, chairman of Morgan Stanley’s London-based investment banking subsidiary, and his wife, Judy; and Recaldo Thomas, the yacht’s chef.

[Hermoor]

This is the latest update from the Giornale di Sicilia, the most widely read newspaper in Sicily.

https://gds.it/

"Porticello shipwreck, Bayesian captain questioned: warrants imminent
Investigators focus on the boat's hatch, autopsies this week

by Editorial Staff

AUGUST 25, 2024

New interrogation of the captain of the luxury sailing vessel Bayesian, New Zealander James Cutfield, as a person informed of the facts by the Termini Imerese Prosecutor's Office investigating the shipwreck of the vessel in Porticello which caused 7 victims out of 22 people on board.

The issues that the prosecutor wanted to clarify with the captain are related to the testimonies of the guests of the vessel and the crew members, even after having acquired the images of the underwater robot sent to the seabed where the Bayesian lies after the shipwreck. Among the questions asked to Cutfield there will be one regarding the side doors (were they closed or open?) and the position of the keel. The autopsies on the bodies of the victims should begin next week after the notification of the notices of investigation, the hypothesis is the crime of shipwreck and manslaughter. The tests are unrepeatable so any suspects will have to appoint expert consultants. Among the suspects are almost certainly those responsible for navigation, the captain, perhaps his deputy and the man who was on the bridge when the downburst occurred .

The issue of the hatches and the keel are fundamental to the investigation because the boat was considered unsinkable and could only sink from the stern by taking on tons of water, say experts, such as Franco Romani of the Perini Navi design office, according to whom the Bayesian was part of Perini's 56-meter series: "Ten boats in all, a more than consolidated line".

"Boats that can do anything," he says. "My personal interpretation is that they left the side hatch open. If you close everything, the water doesn't get in: in extreme conditions, the boat can roll as much as it wants, but it doesn't sink. That's why I think the side hatch, the one used to get out with the tender and dive, was left open. There's a 60-centimeter margin: when the boat heeled, tons of water got in and ended up invading the engine room, if, as I think, that was left open too," he adds. "And there was nothing more to do."

Another question that investigators will have to ask is the position of all those who were on board: how come only one of the 10 crew members died, while six of the 12 passengers died? Was the crew already on deck, aware of the storm, and did not raise the alarm to those who were still sleeping in their cabins? These are just questions, of course, not certainties.

The nine crew members are still in the Domina-Zagarella hotel in Santa Flavia, which is always locked down and off limits to journalists. There is a constant coming and going of State Police and Port Authority cars. The hotel managers have not received any information about the whereabouts of the nine after yesterday the six passengers of the Bayesian, including the official owner Angela Barcares, wife of tycoon Mike Lynch and mother of Hannah, both of whom died in the shipwreck, left the Zagarella to board a private jet and reach London. In the stretch of sea in front of Porticello where the vessel sank there are no vessels except for a Port Authority boat because the area is off limits to navigation. Porticello has returned to normal after the police, Port Authority and volunteers finished the recovery operations of the victims' bodies, leaving the streets and pier free.

And in the evening a moment of prayer was held on the Porticello seafront in memory of the seven victims, with all the forces of law and order involved in the rescue operations and recovery of the dead. Celebrating the moment of prayer were Don Vincenzo Buscemi, the parish priest of the Madonna del Lume church in Porticello, and Don Giovanni Pipia, the parish priest of the Basilica of Solunto, in Santa Flavia. The victims of the shipwreck are Recaldo Thomas, ship's cook; Jonathan Bloomer, president of Morgan Stanley International; his wife Anne Elizabeth Judith Bloomer; British entrepreneur Mike Lynch; his daughter Hannah Lynch; Lynch's lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda."

***

Apparently now it is being stated that Bayesian wasn't hit by a twister/tornado/water spout. She was hit by a down burst, or perhaps a micro burst.

I'd never even heard of a down burst or a micro burst before. They didn't teach it in basic or advanced sea survival courses in my day. Or meteorology classes. That will all change now.

Roughly speaking I've been in a Mediterranean down burst or a micro burst of rain before, but the winds weren't much more than 20 or 30 knots. It lasted for about 15-20 minutes and the weather system covered about 3 square miles. I was navigating from an open air flybridge at the time. It was like standing under a fire hose. I wasn't far off hypothermia by the end of it, despite it being the middle of summer. Visibility was about 100 metres at most and I couldn't hear much through the rain. The engines were engaged in idle forward. I navigated by GPS nav chart; depth soundings; eyesight and memory. Usually I'd use the radar, but it was useless. There was so much water in the sky the radar screen couldn't even discern the other boats and little islands less than 150 metres away.

It struck suddenly with next to no warning. I bailed out of the wheelhouse like a scalded cat as soon as I lost the radar help and my own eyesight couldn't see out of the wheelhouse windows. Plus I couldn't hear any surrounding/oncoming noises in the wheelhouse for the clatter of the falling rain.

Having YouTubed a handful of videos about down bursts and micro bursts, I'm very glad my experience was in broad daylight without accompanying severe winds.

Some reports hint at Bayesian's mast not having snapped. A number of reports say she heeled over by about 20 degrees when the down burst hit. That'll wake everyone up. 100%. I'd expect most of them were thrown out of their beds and woke up by being slammed on to the floor. Even the guests wouldn't casually go back to sleep after that. It would be action stations for all on board.

Without having studied Bayesian's naval architecture and cabin plans, it's a virtual given that the guest cabins would predominantly be accessed from the main salon's staircase. Other than that staircase it is a given that there will be an escape hatch within the guest cabin area too, typically far forward of the staircase. That means if a fire cuts off the staircase as an escape route, then guests can still escape via the escape hatch. There may well be more than those two escape options, but I don't know for sure.

It's a bad scene that the Captain and eight crew made it to safety whilst 6 guests died in their cabins. Some reports say 5 guests died in the master cabin and Hannah Lynch's body was recovered from a different cabin? No matter what, the Captain is the last one off the yacht unless there is no other option. Captain Cutfield must have been faced with some truly bizarre circumstances and extremely tough decisions. Rightly or wrongly, I'd say he considered the predicament of the six guests in the guest cabins a lost cause.

Usually you want at least two crew in a liferaft otherwise occupied by guests. The guests need at least two trained professionals with them who know the score.

Perhaps an error was made in launching the other liferaft? Perhaps it blew away by mistake before it could be boarded? Perhaps it was never launched at all? I'd be surprised if she didn't have a third liferaft for back up.

Given the choice between remaining in a guest cabin or jumping in to the sea with just my lifejacket on, well, it's a no brainer. The last place you want to be on a sinking boat is in a cabin below decks.

I'd be surprised if Sir RBP was anchored more than 200 metres from Bayesian. Both boats must have been absolutely thumped, but apparently Bayesian got thumped a damn sight harder. That's incredibly localised.

If bad weather was known to be on its way, then Bayesian's keel would have been lowered to the full 10 metres for stability. I don't know how long it would take to drop her keel from 4 metres to 10 metres. I wouldn't expect it to be a lengthy process and it would have been a big priority as soon as fierce winds struck.

I'd be surprised if she anchored in more than 25 metres. She sunk at a depth of 50 metres. Maybe she dragged anchor, or they got the anchor up before motoring a short way. There are other possibilities.

It's mostly the weight of the anchor chain that secures a boat at anchor. In storms the rule of thumb is you want at least ten times the length of anchor chain out compared to the depth the anchor is secured at. When things go really nuts you want all but the last few metres of chain out. The last resort is dumping the anchor chain by cutting the bitter end rope. The bitter end secures the last link of chain to the bulkhead of the anchor locker.

It'll all come out in the wash. Every seasoned pro mariner on the planet will know if the official accident report is on point or otherwise.

[ExomatrixTV]

Posted by Eric J (Viking) (here)
Investigators in the superyacht sinking off the coast of Sicily that left seven people dead earlier this week are considering manslaughter charges in the case, judicial sources told Reuters.

The public prosecutor's office of Termini Imerese in Sicily is investigating possible negligence on the part of the crew of the yacht when it was besieged by storms while anchored.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/deadly...e-manslaughter

Imagine the accused obtain evidence that it was an artifically created "feak weather" and were suprised by it that it came so fast "out of the blue" ... and WHY can you not find any detailed (zoomed in) weather records archives (just like with the freak weather in Iran) on that particular day in that area ... Who has the power to alter and/or remove many weather-records of that day?

cheers,
John 🦜🦋🌳

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Hermoor (here)
This is the latest update from the Giornale di Sicilia, the most widely read newspaper in Sicily.

https://gds.it/

"Porticello shipwreck, Bayesian captain questioned: warrants imminent
Investigators focus on the boat's hatch, autopsies this week

by Editorial Staff

AUGUST 25, 2024

New interrogation of the captain of the luxury sailing vessel Bayesian, New Zealander James Cutfield, as a person informed of the facts by the Termini Imerese Prosecutor's Office investigating the shipwreck of the vessel in Porticello which caused 7 victims out of 22 people on board.

The issues that the prosecutor wanted to clarify with the captain are related to the testimonies of the guests of the vessel and the crew members, even after having acquired the images of the underwater robot sent to the seabed where the Bayesian lies after the shipwreck. Among the questions asked to Cutfield there will be one regarding the side doors (were they closed or open?) and the position of the keel. The autopsies on the bodies of the victims should begin next week after the notification of the notices of investigation, the hypothesis is the crime of shipwreck and manslaughter. The tests are unrepeatable so any suspects will have to appoint expert consultants. Among the suspects are almost certainly those responsible for navigation, the captain, perhaps his deputy and the man who was on the bridge when the downburst occurred .

The issue of the hatches and the keel are fundamental to the investigation because the boat was considered unsinkable and could only sink from the stern by taking on tons of water, say experts, such as Franco Romani of the Perini Navi design office, according to whom the Bayesian was part of Perini's 56-meter series: "Ten boats in all, a more than consolidated line".

"Boats that can do anything," he says. "My personal interpretation is that they left the side hatch open. If you close everything, the water doesn't get in: in extreme conditions, the boat can roll as much as it wants, but it doesn't sink. That's why I think the side hatch, the one used to get out with the tender and dive, was left open. There's a 60-centimeter margin: when the boat heeled, tons of water got in and ended up invading the engine room, if, as I think, that was left open too," he adds. "And there was nothing more to do."

Another question that investigators will have to ask is the position of all those who were on board: how come only one of the 10 crew members died, while six of the 12 passengers died? Was the crew already on deck, aware of the storm, and did not raise the alarm to those who were still sleeping in their cabins? These are just questions, of course, not certainties.

The nine crew members are still in the Domina-Zagarella hotel in Santa Flavia, which is always locked down and off limits to journalists. There is a constant coming and going of State Police and Port Authority cars. The hotel managers have not received any information about the whereabouts of the nine after yesterday the six passengers of the Bayesian, including the official owner Angela Barcares, wife of tycoon Mike Lynch and mother of Hannah, both of whom died in the shipwreck, left the Zagarella to board a private jet and reach London. In the stretch of sea in front of Porticello where the vessel sank there are no vessels except for a Port Authority boat because the area is off limits to navigation. Porticello has returned to normal after the police, Port Authority and volunteers finished the recovery operations of the victims' bodies, leaving the streets and pier free.

And in the evening a moment of prayer was held on the Porticello seafront in memory of the seven victims, with all the forces of law and order involved in the rescue operations and recovery of the dead. Celebrating the moment of prayer were Don Vincenzo Buscemi, the parish priest of the Madonna del Lume church in Porticello, and Don Giovanni Pipia, the parish priest of the Basilica of Solunto, in Santa Flavia. The victims of the shipwreck are Recaldo Thomas, ship's cook; Jonathan Bloomer, president of Morgan Stanley International; his wife Anne Elizabeth Judith Bloomer; British entrepreneur Mike Lynch; his daughter Hannah Lynch; Lynch's lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda."

***

Apparently now it is being stated that Bayesian wasn't hit by a twister/tornado/water spout. She was hit by a down burst, or perhaps a micro burst.

I'd never even heard of a down burst or a micro burst before. They didn't teach it in basic or advanced sea survival courses in my day. Or meteorology classes. That will all change now.

Roughly speaking I've been in a Mediterranean down burst or a micro burst of rain before, but the winds weren't much more than 20 or 30 knots. It lasted for about 15-20 minutes and the weather system covered about 3 square miles. I was navigating from an open air flybridge at the time. It was like standing under a fire hose. I wasn't far off hypothermia by the end of it, despite it being the middle of summer. Visibility was about 100 metres at most and I couldn't hear much through the rain. The engines were engaged in idle forward. I navigated by GPS nav chart; depth soundings; eyesight and memory. Usually I'd use the radar, but it was useless. There was so much water in the sky the radar screen couldn't even discern the other boats and little islands less than 150 metres away.

It struck suddenly with next to no warning. I bailed out of the wheelhouse like a scalded cat as soon as I lost the radar help and my own eyesight couldn't see out of the wheelhouse windows. Plus I couldn't hear any surrounding/oncoming noises in the wheelhouse for the clatter of the falling rain.

Having YouTubed a handful of videos about down bursts and micro bursts, I'm very glad my experience was in broad daylight without accompanying severe winds.

Some reports hint at Bayesian's mast not having snapped. A number of reports say she heeled over by about 20 degrees when the down burst hit. That'll wake everyone up. 100%. I'd expect most of them were thrown out of their beds and woke up by being slammed on to the floor. Even the guests wouldn't casually go back to sleep after that. It would be action stations for all on board.

Without having studied Bayesian's naval architecture and cabin plans, it's a virtual given that the guest cabins would predominantly be accessed from the main salon's staircase. Other than that staircase it is a given that there will be an escape hatch within the guest cabin area too, typically far forward of the staircase. That means if a fire cuts off the staircase as an escape route, then guests can still escape via the escape hatch. There may well be more than those two escape options, but I don't know for sure.

It's a bad scene that the Captain and eight crew made it to safety whilst 6 guests died in their cabins. Some reports say 5 guests died in the master cabin and Hannah Lynch's body was recovered from a different cabin? No matter what, the Captain is the last one off the yacht unless there is no other option. Captain Cutfield must have been faced with some truly bizarre circumstances and extremely tough decisions. Rightly or wrongly, I'd say he considered the predicament of the six guests in the guest cabins a lost cause.

Usually you want at least two crew in a liferaft otherwise occupied by guests. The guests need at least two trained professionals with them who know the score.

Perhaps an error was made in launching the other liferaft? Perhaps it blew away by mistake before it could be boarded? Perhaps it was never launched at all? I'd be surprised if she didn't have a third liferaft for back up.

Given the choice between remaining in a guest cabin or jumping in to the sea with just my lifejacket on, well, it's a no brainer. The last place you want to be on a sinking boat is in a cabin below decks.

I'd be surprised if Sir RBP was anchored more than 200 metres from Bayesian. Both boats must have been absolutely thumped, but apparently Bayesian got thumped a damn sight harder. That's incredibly localised.

If bad weather was known to be on its way, then Bayesian's keel would have been lowered to the full 10 metres for stability. I don't know how long it would take to drop her keel from 4 metres to 10 metres. I wouldn't expect it to be a lengthy process and it would have been a big priority as soon as fierce winds struck.

I'd be surprised if she anchored in more than 25 metres. She sunk at a depth of 50 metres. Maybe she dragged anchor, or they got the anchor up before motoring a short way. There are other possibilities.

It's mostly the weight of the anchor chain that secures a boat at anchor. In storms the rule of thumb is you want at least ten times the length of anchor chain out compared to the depth the anchor is secured at. When things go really nuts you want all but the last few metres of chain out. The last resort is dumping the anchor chain by cutting the bitter end rope. The bitter end secures the last link of chain to the bulkhead of the anchor locker.

It'll all come out in the wash. Every seasoned pro mariner on the planet will know if the official accident report is on point or otherwise.

Many thanks (and I'll quote the whole post here!) — that was a most interesting read. I've only had a tiny amount of yachting experience compared with yourself (and on nothing large at all), but it sure does seem 95+% probable that a side hatch was left open.

[Hermoor]

^ The side hatch in question seems to be for the tender boarding platform Bill.

S.Y. Fidelis is also a 56m class Perini. Her tender platform can be viewed from 2'32" in this footage. The swim platform can be viewed from 2'18".

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=ekUnZ0EDvq0

If the tender platform was open by mistake, then it would be a terrible basic human error. There may have been a known fault with it. The chief engineer may have been working on it for hours without a break when other emergency circumstances suddenly took priority. It's not likely this was the case, but it's possible. It may have been opened in a chronic emergency to get people into the tender. All of these scenarios are long shots and there are other possibilities.

The hatches are hydraulic systems. They open and close at the push of a button. It takes about ten seconds for each operation.

In theory Bayesian was carrying 4 twelve person liferafts. Three of them are clearly visible in this photo. Two on both sides of the aft deck are located slightly forward of the life buoys. Two more are located on the fore deck, one of them can just be seen below the sail and slightly forward of the step up from the side deck.

https://photos.superyachtapi.com/dow...68/extra-large

It is most strange she only seemed to successfully launch and board one liferaft. Most strange. Yet we must remember that it would have been mayhem out on decks that night. Even simple tasks become complicated and dangerous (especially at night) in severe winds and rain when everyone is in the midst of a chronic emergency.

Also of note in the above photograph is the entrance hatch to the crew quarters. It's just forward of the mast between the two liferafts on the fore deck.

This photo clearly shows how far Bayesian heels over in routine sailing conditions. Her side deck is taking on water. It's no big deal.

https://photos.superyachtapi.com/dow...70/extra-large

Superyachts operating under sail are actually not that common. They mostly navigate from A to B under motor. Sailing tends to be a treat for regatta days, photo opportunities and favourable weather conditions when the owner or principal charter guest specifically request it.

As I expected, Bayesian and Sir RBP were anchored close together when the storm hit. This photo shows how close.

https://assets.gds.it/2024/08/bayesi...724518508.jpeg

Both Captains would have been looking for favourably shallow depths with favourably good seabeds for setting their anchors securely. Mud is the best. A rocky seabed is hit and miss. On one hand the anchor can and does glance off and bounce along a rocky seabed, i.e. there is a high risk of dragging anchor in a storm. On the other hand the anchor (and chain) can quite easily get snagged on a rock and it's a serious and protracted hassle to free it.

In storms it is quite common to set both anchors for a doubling of the holding power. The downside of this strategy is that it also doubles the complications and hassles in variable winds. The boat swings around and big tangles can ensue. It also roughly doubles the time it takes to retrieve both anchors in an emergency, not good. So most of the time the Captain will prefer to set one anchor. And if severe winds become a problem the engines are immediately turned on to maintain positional stability. The trick is to keep the bow pointing directly into the wind. Without the bow pointing directly into the wind, the boat can rapidly be turned broadside into the wind. That's when it is vulnerable to heeling over at dangerous angles and even capsizing.

It's draining on a Captain to keep the bow pointing directly into the wind. You're constantly engaging and disengaging the engines in idle forward. Constantly nudging the boat forward to take the strain off the anchor and constantly being blown back by the wind to repeat the manoeuvre. It's a delicate and precise strategy whilst in the midst of tremendous forces and strains that can easily cause a lot of damage.

Compiling and publishing nautical charts is a massively complex, time consuming and expensive endeavour. The navigational information is highly guarded. As far as public freebies go, this is about the best we'll get anywhere. Where Bayesian was anchored:



A faint anchor symbol can be seen where the harbour authorities have located their designated anchorage. A 25 metre depth contour can be seen, as can one for 50 metres. The seabed is predominantly a mixture of mud and rocks. Just above the anchor symbol are the red and green lights at the entrance to the port.

The problem with offshore (beach to open sea) winds is that the holding power of the anchor and chain is greatly reduced. The chance of dragging anchor is greatly increased. The forces at play are trying to drag the anchor downhill into deeper water and much less of the chain is able to rest on the seabed to counter this.

Returning to the photo of the two yachts at anchor that night. Experienced Captains know where it's safest for them to anchor. So they are going to end up in the same neighbourhood, so to speak. But they also anchor close together for camaraderie, social occasions and mutual protection and security.

Other boats were also in the anchorage. The high strangeness of it all is that the best equipped of them all to ride out the storm was the one that took the biggest (and only fatal) battering.

One of Captain Cutfield's biggest concerns would have been S.Y. Sir RBP dragging anchor and possibly colliding with Bayesian's chain or hull.

Captain Borner of the S.Y. Sir RBP and two local fishermen specifically stated that they saw a water spout/tornado/twister. Rest assured they know what they are talking about. So where did this talk of a down burst or a micro burst come from?

It would be imperative for Bayesian to have lowered her retractable keel to the full 10 metres of depth before, or as soon as, the weather turned gnarly. Did she? If not, then why not?

Captain Borner stated Bayesian was knocked flat and sank two (?) minutes later. "Knocked flat" means she was capsized with her mast fully on the surface of the water. Very serious injuries could have happened then to the guests and crew. If you aren't holding on to something secure at that point, then you'll be hurled metres through the air on to very injurious fittings and furnishings.

A storm was forecast for that night. The crew would have been on high alert all night. According to local sources it built up for at least several hours before the twister struck. The crew should have seen it coming. Everything inside and out should have been secured in advance for a rough ride all night long.

Original naval architecture plans are printed on sheets of paper roughly the size of a desk. They are big drawings. Here are scaled down plans of Bayesian's decks.

https://photos.superyachtapi.com/dow...66/extra-large

This one simplifies things for us somewhat.

https://photos.superyachtapi.com/dow...48/extra-large

Aft of the engine room is the swim platform, transom and lazarette. A lazarette is a general storage area. It looks like the chief engineer's bunk is in the lazarette, right beside the tender platform hatch. Usually the chief would sleep with the rest of the crew. However engine room systems nowadays are alarmed up to the gunnels and the chief is probably sleeping in the lazarette beside his alarm panel to give everyone else peace and quiet. It's a very strange stretch to think that the chief would be snoozing through a storm with the tender hatch wide open.

The tender garages are above the crew quarters. The drawings show a tender in the starboard side garage and two waverunners/jetskis in the port side one. It's very difficult and dangerous to launch the tender in wild seas and severe winds. You need to use a davit, rigging wires and a control pad. The worst case scenario is just dumping it into the sea. Unpunctured RIBs don't sink, even if they capsize. At least a survivor in the sea who isn't in a liferaft might have a capsized RIB to cling on to, better than no RIB at all.

Forward of the crew quarters are the windlasses and the anchor locker. Technically speaking there are no anchors in the anchor locker. The anchor locker is partitioned in to two sections and both sections are full of anchor chains. When the anchor is pulled up it is the junior deckhand's job to flake the chain out neatly in the anchor locker. It's a dangerous job for the unwary and a crappy job in bad weather, you get buffeted around a lot in a hard, confined, dirty and wet space.

So Bayesian was knocked flat. Then she sunk from the stern in 2-3 minutes? Jeez. This is high strangeness indeed. The engine room is watertight. It should have been as dry as a bone in there, roughly speaking. How on Earth did the lazarette get flooded with it being the chief engineer's domain? It would have taken a long time to flood.... unless the tender hatch was (probably) open.

Here is a comprehensive timeline list of reports from the Giornale di Sicilia. There's a lot of info in there not being reported elsewhere, especially on the major news channels.

https://gds.it/tag/il-naufragio-di-porticello/

Captain Cutfield is reported to have said "We never saw it coming" in the earlier reports. Why? He had hours to dot his Is and cross his Ts in preparation. That said, a sharp watch keeper would only have perhaps 2-3 minutes warning of a twister coming at them. That's a raw and utterly freaky deal for anyone to face.

These comments are from Bayesian's former Captain, Stephen Edwards.

"The port side hatch was "100 percent not open"; with a 45-degree tilt and the engine room vents open, the boat could have "serious problems" and "start taking on water." This is what former Bayesian captain Stephen Edwards said in a post on Linkedin.

Edwards tries to reconstruct what happened the night of the shipwreck. According to him, there was no obligation to keep the centerboard down. With a sudden change in weather conditions, the crew had a "short time to react". Off the coast of Porticello, adds the man who commanded the sailing ship from 2015 to 2020, the Bayesian went "beyond its operational limits".

Yes. But closing those vents would have been a priority for the chief. And the engine room door can still be closed to confine the ingress of water to the engine room only.

The entire incident is exceptionally unconventional in the extreme. The Captain, chief engineer, first mate and head stewardess will all be very experienced and calm heads, one would expect. It's second nature for them to call the shots right. Big businessmen usually keep calm heads in a tight spot too. One wouldn't expect ignorance and blind panic to have been the undoing of all of them.

I'd be happy to answer any questions as best I can from fellow Avalonians.

[Hermoor]

I should have added a degree of scale to the basic navigation chart posted above.

Due east from the green starboard harbour entrance light it is approximately 175 metres to the 25 metre depth contour and 575 metres to the 50 metre depth contour.

If you can read Italian or you're handy with translation software options then this link to the Giornale di Sicilia is the best source of news of the incident and ongoing investigations:

https://gds.it/tag/il-naufragio-di-porticello/

This YouTube channel is also competent and fairly comprehensive:

https://www.youtube.com/@YachtReport/videos

Through AIS data it now seems to have been established that Bayesian sank from her starboard side. The port side tender boarding platform hatch mentioned above does not appear to have caused the sinking through being open or failing.

That's weird. How did Bayesian sink so fast then?

I had a bad feeling about Giovanni Constantino's initial comments shortly after the incident occurred. He's the CEO of the Italian Sea Group. Perini Navi became part of the Italian Sea Group in 2021. Constantino basically threw the Captain and crew under the bus and said the incident was due to their failings. Such comments were hasty, imprudent and quite possibly very inaccurate.

Autopsies have now been done on all but Mike and Hannah Lynch. Toxicology results will be available in about two months.

The chef Recaldo Thomas died from drowning. His body was the first to be recovered. It was found outside the hull by divers.

Four of the guests died in the cabins, some by drowning and others by suffocating in air pockets.

Why were they not able to escape via the stairwell, the escape hatch or possibly even another hatch or door?

What were they doing below decks in their cabins in the first place? Why weren't they at least at the muster station or out on decks with their lifejackets on?

Matthew Griffiths, the young deckhand on watch, woke the Captain up as soon as the wind strengthened to 20 knots. Well done to him. 20 knots is a low threshold indicative of a Captain who errs on the safe side. The Captain then gave orders to wake everyone else up. The guests may have snoozed on at this point (?) but with all the crew awake one would expect the yacht's safety and that of the guests to be okay.

Shortly after this Griffiths also commented that the yacht heeled over and he and Captain Cutfield were thrown into the water. They managed to get back on board and tried to save others. Whilst back on board Griffiths said he and Cutfield were "walking on the walls." Griffiths specifically stated that Cutfield saved the little girl and her mother, referring to Charlotte Golunski and her daughter Sophia.

In due course the yacht will be salvaged from the seabed to establish precisely how she sank.

[Johnnycomelately]

Posted by Hermoor (here)

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In due course the yacht will be salvaged from the seabed to establish precisely how she sank.

The boat is now at the surface. Some more work needs to be done before it/she will be brought to a port nearby, where a cradle/bedding has been prepared on land.

The article has a few good pics, of the 5k+ tonne lift barge with the sailboat at the surface, and of the awaiting cradle.


Bayesian superyacht hull raised from seabed during investigation into fatal sinking

Helen Fretter
June 20, 2025

https://www.yachtingworld.com/all-la...-seabed-158643