Israel vs Palestine/Lebanon/Iran/Yemen/Syria: a New Middle East War

[Ravenlocke]

Shadow of Ezra

5h
Benjamin Netanyahu speaks from the roof of the IDF headquarters and says the war in Iran is about to intensify so much that “painful days are coming.”

Netanyahu says he will unleash the full force of the IDF that the world has never seen before.

Netanyahu says he has waited 40 years for this exact moment.

"This is what I promised."

https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/2028162845557297261

[shaberon]

The exchange in Erbil appears to have been setting off air defenses, until, that thing, probably a Patriot, was itself destroyed:

The attack appeared to be extremely successful. Videos posted online suggest that air defenses were hit. An American MIM-104 Patriot long-range air defense system is known to be deployed there.

Jerusalem Post says that one of the impacts blew up a bomb shelter, killing the people inside.


The aggressor's work includes:

The report added that a US–Israeli strike targeted the pediatric ward of Gandhi Hospital in Tehran.

[Ravenlocke]

Unconfirmed


Ignis Rex

2h
The US military is low on missile interceptors and will not be able to defend the Gulf States from Iranian drone attacks on US military bases and Mossad stations in the Gulf.

The post below was posted by Admiral Stavridis and then deleted because he realized he just announced to everyone that the US is unable to sustain this war.

https://x.com/Ignis_Rex/status/2028210705963557056

[Ravenlocke]

DD Geopolitics

2h
🚨🇸🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump confirms to the Daily Mail that Saudi Arabia is "fighting too" against Iran.

When asked about reports that Saudi Arabia could launch attacks on Iran, Trump said plainly: "they're fighting, they're fighting too."

This is no longer a U.S.-Israeli operation. This is now a coalition war against Iran.


https://x.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/2028208008032117075

[Ravenlocke]

Dialogue works

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf:

🔹We have prepared ourselves for all scenarios and even plans are in place for after Imam Khamenei's martyrdom.

🔹Trump and Netanyahu stepped on our red line and will pay the price for it.

🔹We will deal you such painful blows that you will beg; you will see.

🔹America and the Zionist regime are enemies of Iran, not just the Islamic Republic.

https://x.com/Dialogue_NRA/status/2028069369310261637

[Ravenlocke]

Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
With Alireza Arafi being named the new Supreme Leader, we can expect a shift to a harsher, more extreme regime in Iran.

I spoke with multiple sources and scholars who follow Iranian politics to compile a read of the situation.

Here is what you need to know:

Alireza Arafi is a religious conservative, even more so than Khamenei was

He was the Head of Seminaries and has written extensively on the idea that Shi'a Islam must be a “response” to the “moral and spiritual shortcomings” of secularism, liberalism, materialism and Western ideologies.

While Khamenei thought it was Iran’s duty to “export the Islamic revolution” to other Muslim societies, Arafi thinks it is Iran’s *obligation* to spread Islamic values to overcome the world’s moral shortcomings.

Mojtaba Khamenei (Ali Khamenei’s son) had initially been reported as taking this position, and so the fact he hasn’t either means he was killed or the conservative scholar wing of the assembly has seized much more authority - as Mojtaba was expected to still be a conservative fundamentalist but work with the “reform” President (and reform is considered moderate by Iranian standards but is still quite extremist)

While Alireza Arafi is not himself more militant than Khamenei, he is expected to be a larger delegator who enables much more violent figures.

Ayatollah Khamenei had an active hand in all foreign policy decisions in Iran previously, including the when to use violent proxies like Hezbollah and Yemeni rebel groups.

Arafi is *much* more focused on the religious and is expected to elevate decisions of security and insurgency to other figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i.

Both of them are hardline security advocates who believe they should use the power of proxies and the IRGC to quash internal dissent and show “anti-American strength” in the region.

On the Presidential side it was reported initially that Masoud Pezeshkian was dead, US outlets suggested Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref was likely to ascend to the Presidency.

Aref is a moderate reformist and while that doesn’t mean much in Iran, he seemed to be the US choice of someone they could influence and work with.

However with Pezeshkian still being alive this push was quickly thwarted and Arafi being elevated to Supreme Leader means he will select the next Guardian Council and the moderates will have *less* control in Iran than prior.

While Arafi is seen as pragmatic, you should read it as underhanded. He believes in a religious mission, he will be pragmatic in surviving to fulfill that.

And his lack of Western experience and exposure and his hands off approach to foreign policy, elevates the most violent offenders of Iranian leadership into even stronger position.

Given the narrative push for the Aref, the US has clearly hoped to replace with a more moderate and accessible regime.

And instead got one that is somehow more fundamentalist and more likely to leverage insurgency and regional violence.

https://x.com/adamscochran/status/2028158170439307316

[Ravenlocke]

Antiwar.com

Before Khamenei Killing, CIA Assessed He Would Likely Be Replaced by More Hardline Elements of the IRGC
#Iran #Khamenei #CIA #IRGC

https://x.com/Antiwarcom/status/2028210738909569086

https://news.antiwar.com/2026/03/01/...s-of-the-irgc/

Before Khamenei Killing, CIA Assessed He Would Likely Be Replaced by More Hardline Elements of the IRGC

Before the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on Saturday morning and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the CIA assessed that if the Iranian leader were killed, his rule would likely be replaced by “hardline” figures from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Reuters has reported.

The report said that the assessment was produced over the past two weeks as the US was building up its forces in the region and preparing to launch the war. The New York Times reported that the CIA had been tracking Khamenei for months and knew that he would be at his compound in Tehran meeting senior Iranian officials on Saturday morning, where he was hit by a joint US-Israeli strike.

Since Khamenei’s death, the Iranian government created a council that will govern the country until Iran’s “Assembly of Experts” chooses a new supreme leader. Killing Khamenei does not appear to have impacted Iran’s military operations as Iranian missiles and drones continue to hit targets across the region, including in Israel and countries hosting US military bases.

During previous confrontations with the US, including the 12-Day War in June 2025 and when President Trump assassinated Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of the IRGC’s Quds Force, Iran’s response to the US attacks was minimal and more symbolic, as it provided notice ahead of time. But now, Iran has targeted multiple US bases, and there’s no sign Tehran is interested in de-escalation.

According to an unconfirmed report from Israel’s Ynet, after killing Khamenei, President Trump sought a ceasefire, but the idea was rejected by Iran. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, says that leadership in Tehran now believes that if it agrees to a ceasefire without inflicting enough costs on the US, the US and Israel will just attack again in the future.

“Iran understands that many in the American security establishment had been convinced that Iran’s past restraint reflected weakness and an inability or unwillingness to face the US in a direct war,” Parsi wrote on X. “Tehran is now doing everything it can to demonstrate the opposite – despite the massive cost it itself will pay. Ironically, the assassination of Khamenei facilitated this shift.”

[shaberon]

Here is a difficult perspective from Turkey:

The Anti-NATO and Anti-Imperialist War Union and the Istanbul Labor, Peace and Democracy Forces organized the protest against what they described as the US-Israeli imperialist and Zionist attack on Iran in Kadıköy.

DEM Party MP Özgül Saki attended the demonstration together with representatives of trade unions, political parties, and democratic mass organizations. The protest demanded that Turkey leave NATO and that US bases be shut down immediately.

A banner reading “We stand with the Iranian people against imperialist-Zionist attacks” was displayed, slogans were frequently chanted such as: “Imperialists, collaborators, remember the 6th Fleet,” “Down with US imperialism,” and “Imperialists will lose, resisting peoples will win.”

A joint statement read at the demonstration recalled that US imperialism, together with Zionist Israel, described as being embedded in the region like a dagger, launched an attack on Iran on Saturday morning. It was noted that, similar to the 12-day war in June 2025, this attack took place while the parties were at the “negotiating table.” The statement said that by attacking Iran, the US and Israel have ignited the fuse of a regional war.

The statement continued: “Since the occupation of Afghanistan, US imperialism has been attacking in order to reshape the Middle East and reestablish its hegemony. After Afghanistan came Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria, now it is Iran’s turn. The genocidal Zionist state of Israel acts as a battering ram in implementing these US plans. The rhetoric of ‘Israel’s security,’ frequently voiced by US officials, is directly related to this.”

The statement emphasized that presenting the claim “Iran is on the verge of building an atomic bomb” as a justification for the attack is outright deception. It recalled that the only aggressive power in the Middle East possessing nuclear weapons is Zionist Israel, adding: “Those who see the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as a threat should first eliminate the nuclear weapons in their own hands.”

The statement also drew attention to the Kürecik radar base in Turkey, which it said provides intelligence to Israel, and warned that all US and NATO bases could potentially be used in the attack against Iran. It continued: “We stand firmly against these lands being used against the working people of brotherly Iran; we will not allow complicity in this crime. Imperialists, Zionists, and collaborating reactionary states have no right to attack or occupy countries, regardless of the pretext. It is an internal matter for the workers, laborers, and oppressed of each country to settle accounts with their own bourgeoisie.

We know what US imperialism and genocidal Israel have brought to peoples—from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Libya to Yemen, from Syria to Lebanon and Palestine. Imperialism does not bring freedom or democracy to peoples. The only things imperialism brings are exploitation, oppression, massacres, plunder of nature, hopelessness, the exploitation of women’s labor and bodies, and slavery.

Standing in solidarity with Iranian workers and laborers against this imperialist-Zionist aggression and opposing imperialist aggression is the responsibility and duty of all workers, peoples, women, young people, and all oppressed.”

Although that would seem to be the general Kurdish outlook, it can't be, because some of them are Americanized in trying to resolve issues with their "host countries".

That is why they are not working with what they consider to be a "Shi'ite project" such as Hezbollah.

Erdogan is in the position where he can basically condemn Israel, *but* repudiate Iranian bombing of Gulf countries:

...we are deeply saddened and concerned by the U.S.–Israeli attacks launched against our neighbour Iran as a result of Netanyahu’s provocations.

I have held telephone conversations with President Trump and President Pezeshkian.

Other countries in the region also made every possible effort.

However, the desired outcome could not be achieved, as the crisis of confidence between the parties could not be overcome, and Israel’s attempts to undermine the process continued.

We deplore this morning’s attacks, which not only constitute a clear violation of Iran’s sovereignty but also target the peace and well-being of the friendly and brotherly people of Iran.

Likewise, we find Iran’s missile and drone attacks against our brotherly countries in the Gulf unacceptable, regardless of the circumstances.

Yet like everyone else, so far there is little to say other than cease fire. I'm not sure that is realistic or an option. It's like the Ukraine model, an existential conflict. I'm not sure how long it would be before Russia notices the uncanny similarity.

I would tend to guess that attacks on the regional American bases are mainly an attempt to break a barrier, which is why not that much has actually been used against Israel so far, and so this ratio should probably swing rather rapidly. That's what I'm doubting there will be any cease-fire about. Others will be left alone and it will just be that. Of course, this is complex and who knows what "uncontrollable" might turn out to mean.

[Ravenlocke]

CALL TO ACTIVISM

Extraordinary statement by an Iranian Official:

"We are fighting the Epstein Class. They either r*pe kids or bomb kids.”

Absolutely wild.

https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/2028211324392439925

[Ravenlocke]

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --

Hezbollah joined the party

https://x.com/GeromanAT/status/2028246749412818982

[Ravenlocke]

Fred Wellman

We are running out of munitions and now the whole world knows it. Trump’s lust for distraction and power is going to leave us defenseless. Where is Congress?

https://x.com/FPWellman/status/2028227925623918706

[Jaak]

[Ravenlocke]

Drop Site

🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responds to President Trump’s warning that Iran better not retaliate or face force never seen before.

Araghchi said: “We are defending ourselves. And we have every legitimate right to defend ourselves. What the United States is doing is an act of aggression. What we are doing is an act of self-defense. There are huge differences between these two.

So one should tell the President of the United States: do not attack, do not make any aggression against another country. But nobody can tell us that we don’t have any right to defend ourselves. We are defending ourselves, whatever it takes.”

https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2028202466253173145

[Ravenlocke]

Rachel Blevins

You know things are looking bad for the U.S. when John Bolton—a war criminal who never met a war he didn’t like and has been dreaming about war with Iran for decades—thinks this war is a bad idea…

https://x.com/RachBlevins/status/2028223631910658314

[Ravenlocke]

Disclose.tv

24m
NOW - Trump returns to the White House, waves to reporters, no comments
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2028265297568846006

[Szymon]

News just in.

[shaberon]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)
With Alireza Arafi being named the new Supreme Leader, we can expect a shift to a harsher, more extreme regime in Iran.

He's the Jurist from the Guardian Council, who forms a Triumvirate with the President and the Chief Justice.

Leadership has to pass a 2/3 majority bar. Chances are, they will only nominate someone who is likely to win it, who is likely to be less moderate.

[bojancan]

Good talk both of them!

March, o1
The Young Turks
6.47M subscribers
Here Comes The War Propaganda!

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=cGZA-lxKF-o

A poll published in Politico used tricky framing to argue that Americans support a war in Iran . Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian discuss on The Young Turks.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
The weapons “the world has never seen” were not a boast. They were a technical briefing delivered at reentry velocity.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Stay tuned for what comes next.

Carrier killers may well be coming at the next phase.

Perhaps Iran figures that they don't want to arouse the US Military to a more full throated response. Sinking one of our main aircraft carriers would invite an order of magnitude increase in the explosive tonnage dropped on Iran.

Perhaps most of the factions within Iran figure that "sinking" Israel is a lower risk, likely more effective, way to success, where "success" may well be defined differently for different factions within Iran.

[Ravenlocke]

Sputnik Mundo

Translated from Spanish
🇮🇷 Iranian Interim Government Council Convenes as Attacks Continue

🔴 The group, established under Article 111 of the Constitution following the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, held a meeting to review the military operation deployed in the Middle East, in response to attacks by the United States and Israel against the Persian nation.

👉 The council is composed of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Supreme Court President Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a jurist specially appointed by the Guardian Council.

https://x.com/SputnikMundo/status/2028285410628219310