Israel vs Palestine/Lebanon/Iran/Yemen/Syria: a New Middle East War

[bojancan]

I watched video above by Werleman... here is one more of that topic... about Israel!
Apr, 09
Iran's Attrition Strategy Has DESTROYED Israel, Forever!

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=iEnxXTa2REI

Israel's military, economy, and society are fracturing ... and the US has quietly abandoned it. In this episode, CJ Werleman breaks down ten devastating reasons why Israel is rapidly becoming defenceless in the face of a rising Iran, a retreating Washington, and a world that has finally stopped looking away.

🔴 IN THIS EPISODE:

-Why the IDF is on the brink of collapse — manpower shortages, internal dissent, and a military stretched beyond breaking point.
-How Iran's attrition strategy is draining Israel's Iron Dome of interceptors — with no end in sight.
-China's direct role in fuelling Iran's ballistic missile program — enabling attacks that could sustain for 12–24 months.
-The US-Iran ceasefire deal that left Israel out in the cold — and why Washington is now scapegoating Tel Aviv.
-Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz — how it became the region's most powerful "tollbooth"
The "Samson Option" — and why China has warned it would mean Israel's total demise.
-A record exodus of Israelis fleeing the country — and the anti-war protests being violently suppressed.
-Why European powers are normalising ties with Tehran — bypassing Washington entirely
Professor Robert Pape on Iran becoming a "global centre of power" that will dwarf Israel militarily and economically.
-Why Israel's self-imposed binary choice of permanent expansion through violence has made its collapse inevitable




Also adding Brian's today video... good talk.. I trust in his analyzes ...
Apr, 16
The New Atlas
309K subscribers
US Using Israel to Distract Away from World War 3: Blockade on Iran is an Act of War on China

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=BjbIPpTnDZ0

As predicted a month ago, the US Marine Expeditionary Unit deployed to the Middle East is now imposing a blockade on Iranian oil to China;

Those fixated on "Israel" are distracting away from what is ultimately an act of war on China amid what is quickly shaping into World War 3;

The notion that it is "inconceivable" the US would launch one war to set the stage for war with another nation ignores both US history and the history of empire in general;

References:

New Atlas - US Prepares for Next War of Aggression Against Iran to Further Encircle Russia & China (Feb. 21, 2026):
• US Prepares for Next War of Aggression Aga...
New Atlas - Day 17: Why is the US Deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit Amid War on Iran? (Mar. 16, 2026):
• Day 17: Why is the US Deploying a Marine E...
BBC - How US Marines are being reshaped for China threat (2023):
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-can...
USNI News - Strait of Hormuz Traffic Down As U.S. Blockade Appears to Deter Some Ships (Apr. 14, 2026):
https://news.usni.org/2026/04/14/stra...

[Bill Ryan]

An important development:

(...but we may need to see how long this lasts. This is all about Iran supporting the Lebanon ceasefire, and pressuring the US to control Israel. That may or may not happen, or even be possible.)

https://x.com/araghchi/status/2045121573124759713

From Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi:

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

[SilentFeathers]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
An important development:

(...but we may need to see how long this lasts. This is all about Iran supporting the Lebanon ceasefire, and pressuring the US to control Israel. That may or may not happen, or even be possible.)

https://x.com/araghchi/status/2045121573124759713

From Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi:

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

This is sort of what I was talking about in the other thread.

We may be seeing the start of something rather surprising. Now Netanyahu needs to be reigned in and things may take a turn for the better.

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by SilentFeathers (here)
We may be seeing the start of something rather surprising. Now Netanyahu needs to be reigned in and things may take a turn for the better.

Donald Trump has now stated this, in language he's never used about Israel before.

The second half of a new Truth Social post:

~~~

Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!

[SilentFeathers]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by SilentFeathers (here)
We may be seeing the start of something rather surprising. Now Netanyahu needs to be reigned in and things may take a turn for the better.

Donald Trump has now stated this, in language he's never used about Israel before.

The second half of a new Truth Social post:

~~~

Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!

See, my posts and ridiculous forecasting is not all hogwash, I sometimes hit the mark! LOL

Now don't be surprised if we see Hezbollah do an exodus back to Iran (or find refuge in Syria).... and Lebanon seek to join the Abraham Accords.

[sdv]

Posted by SilentFeathers (here)

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by SilentFeathers (here)
We may be seeing the start of something rather surprising. Now Netanyahu needs to be reigned in and things may take a turn for the better.

Donald Trump has now stated this, in language he's never used about Israel before.

The second half of a new Truth Social post:

~~~

Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!

See, my posts and ridiculous forecasting is not all hogwash, I sometimes hit the mark! LOL

Now don't be surprised if we see Hezbollah do an exodus back to Iran (or find refuge in Syria).... and Lebanon seek to join the Abraham Accords.

Hezbollah are Lebanese. That they got support from Iran does not make them Iranian.

Hezbollah abided by the previous ceasefire. The war against Iran set off fires all over the place with Israel invading deep into Lebanon and even bombing Beirut (the usual targets of homes, schools, hospitals ...). Unfortunately Israel is still occupying a substantial part of Lebanon, refusing yo leave and refusing to let people peacefully return to their homes or piles of rubble that was their homes. A ceasefire in Lebanon was one of the requirements on the list from Iran.

Sooner or later Trump was going to clash with Israel. This is his show and surely he must be sick of the sight of Netanyahu by now? Narcissists can be manipulated by flattery but the mistake that observers and those who manipulate him make is thinking they own him. He is owned and directed by his ego and everyone else is dispensable. That makes him dangerous because he really does not care about killing little schoolgirls in Iran. That makes him behave like a mix between a toddler bully and mean high school girl bully with a permanent case of main character syndrome, personally attacking people on social media that he feels have personally offended him.

He just put out a social media post boasting about how great he is because he opened the Strait of Iran. Huh?! Freudian slip?!

As for who closed the Strait of Hormuz? The war. It was never actually closed. It just became too risky and expensive to use, and then Iran and the US started playing political football with it (with Israel fuming in the background that it was being left out of the game?).

By the way, BP is the number one company globally for energy (oil, petrol, gas, wind, solar...). It has assets all over the world, including in the US. Closing the Strait of Hormuz probably made a lot of profit for shareholders in BP.

[SilentFeathers]

Posted by sdv (here)

Posted by SilentFeathers (here)

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by SilentFeathers (here)
We may be seeing the start of something rather surprising. Now Netanyahu needs to be reigned in and things may take a turn for the better.

Donald Trump has now stated this, in language he's never used about Israel before.

The second half of a new Truth Social post:

~~~

Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!

See, my posts and ridiculous forecasting is not all hogwash, I sometimes hit the mark! LOL

Now don't be surprised if we see Hezbollah do an exodus back to Iran (or find refuge in Syria).... and Lebanon seek to join the Abraham Accords.

Hezbollah are Lebanese. That they got support from Iran does not make them Iranian.

Hezbollah abided by the previous ceasefire. The war against Iran set off fires all over the place with Israel invading deep into Lebanon and even bombing Beirut (the usual targets of homes, schools, hospitals ...). Unfortunately Israel is still occupying a substantial part of Lebanon, refusing yo leave and refusing to let people peacefully return to their homes or piles of rubble that was their homes. A ceasefire in Lebanon was one of the requirements on the list from Iran.

Sooner or later Trump was going to clash with Israel. This is his show and surely he must be sick of the sight of Netanyahu by now? Narcissists can be manipulated by flattery but the mistake that observers and those who manipulate him make is thinking they own him. He is owned and directed by his ego and everyone else is dispensable. That makes him dangerous because he really does not care about killing little schoolgirls in Iran. That makes him behave like a mix between a toddler bully and mean high school girl bully with a permanent case of main character syndrome, personally attacking people on social media that he feels have personally offended him.

He just put out a social media post boasting about how great he is because he opened the Strait of Iran. Huh?! Freudian slip?!

As for who closed the Strait of Hormuz? The war. It was never actually closed. It just became too risky and expensive to use, and then Iran and the US started playing political football with it (with Israel fuming in the background that it was being left out of the game?).

By the way, BP is the number one company globally for energy (oil, petrol, gas, wind, solar...). It has assets all over the world, including in the US. Closing the Strait of Hormuz probably made a lot of profit for shareholders in BP.

I think the hardline Hezbollah fighters will be forced out of Lebanon and will seek refuge in Iran or end up in Syria, especially those fighters who have been ID'd and targeted by Israel. I'm sure Julani will open Damascus up to some of the high ranking ones for a place for them to hide for a while.

I'm expecting Trump and Netanyahu to clash, likely quite severely, probably sooner than later.

Regardless, I don't know anything and am just "guessing".

[Vicus]

Scott Ritter: WE LOST EUROPE, THE PACIFIC AND THE NOTION OF US MILITARY INVINCIBILITY IN WAR ON IRAN

President Trump declared on Thursday that “we have very good relations with Iran,” after more than a month of war, as speculation mounts over whether there is a chance for another round of talks in Islamabad, now that the U.S. and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon.

https://rachelblevins.substack.com/p...p-scott-ritter

[shaberon]

There is a ceasefire in Lebanon. At least for one day.

Three Iranian tankers passed the blockade, while Iran says anyone can use the Strait.

Of course, these conditions are for a few days.

That's *if* Israel doesn't do anything. Or the US. And meaning in the long term, they will have to comply with Iranian rules.

That's while they are busy trying to hide the losses. Who knows what it really is. Neither regime has any credibility. They just have weapons. That's because they are the kind of people who can only use violence to force you into submission. They can't manifest a program that is actually good for humanity. That notion is false.

[shaberon]

Couple of wires are about as close as I get to anything the Hebrews say:



Israeli Army Radio quotes senior Israeli official: Lebanon ceasefire has been intrinsically linked to Tehran’s demands within talks with the US

Israeli Media: Lebanese Return South of Litani Another Reminder of Broken Promises


To them, this is a total failure:

Yedioth Ahronoth also cited a promise by Katz, saying the Israeli DM “promised ‘destruction’, but the Lebanese crossed the Litani River on the bridges that had been attacked.”

“Within just a few hours, one of the bridges in Qasmiyeh—previously targeted multiple times during the war—was repaired. Despite warnings from the Israeli army and statements by the defense minister that the destruction of key bridges would hinder the return of southern Lebanon’s residents, locals began returning to their homes shortly after the ceasefire took effect,” Yedioth Ahronoth added.

Hezbollah is getting stronger. As long as there is an Israel, the Axis of Resistance will keep getting stronger.

[Chip]

From FL350 this does not look like peace breaking out. It looks like a course correction inside the same storm.

A lot of people are way too quick to turn one pause, one ceasefire, or one Trump post into a full redemption arc. Suddenly he is the man restraining Israel, disciplining Netanyahu, calming Lebanon, opening Hormuz, and maybe even setting up some new Middle East order. That is a massive leap.

What I think is happening is simpler and more believable. Power is adjusting itself. Egos are colliding. Optics are being managed. Narratives are being rewritten in real time. That is not the same thing as a moral awakening.

Hezbollah being backed by Iran does not make them magically Iranian. Lebanon is not some chess square that can just be cleared off and folded neatly into the Abraham Accords because Trump barked on Truth Social. That kind of thinking ignores the actual ground reality and turns a very messy region into a cartoon.

And Trump himself has not suddenly become a man of principle. If he is clashing with Netanyahu, that may be real, but men like Trump do not need conscience to clash with other power centers. Ego is enough. Image is enough. Leverage is enough. Sometimes the fight is not over right and wrong. Sometimes it is just two centers of gravity refusing to orbit each other any longer.

Same with the Strait of Hormuz talk. He boasts like he personally opened the gates of the sea. In reality war, risk, insurance, shipping costs, and political maneuvering were already shaping that whole picture. He is taking a complicated regional mess and branding it as personal triumph. That is vintage Trump.

So yes, something may be shifting. I can grant that. But from my view this is not peace descending from above. It is power re-trimming the aircraft midflight while the passengers are told the turbulence is over.

Maybe Trump and Netanyahu really are heading for a sharper break. Maybe this pause holds longer than expected. But the biggest mistake right now is to confuse a change in flight path with arrival at destination.

That is where I’m at.

[shaberon]

One thing about the Strait is you had better be authorized to use it and:

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy says a "new order" is now in place over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, outlining strict new regulations for all maritime traffic.

In a statement released on Friday, the IRGC Navy commander announced that all commercial vessels will only be permitted to transit through routes designated by Iran.

The announcement also reaffirmed that military vessel transit through the strategic chokepoint firmly under Iranian control remains strictly prohibited.

According to the IRGC Navy, all transits, commercial or otherwise, will only be allowed with the explicit authorization of the IRGC's naval forces.

The statement further stated that these transits are being conducted in accordance with the agreement established under the ongoing Iran-US ceasefire and following the implementation of the ceasefire in Lebanon late on Thursday.

Nothing military, like those two destroyers that were locked on by sixteen missiles within minutes. They left. Nothing military is in the Sea of Oman.

As for the power shift:

'No one listens to Trump's talk'

Iran's Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, in a TV interview, dismissed US President Donald Trump's rhetoric of naval blockade, saying no one listens to him.

That's just how it is right now while remaining possible that more bad things will happen.

[shaberon]

Posted by Chip (here)
Lebanon is not some chess square that can just be cleared off and folded neatly into the Abraham Accords because Trump barked on Truth Social. That kind of thinking ignores the actual ground reality and turns a very messy region into a cartoon.

It's a chimera of a pro-Western Oligarchy and a population that really does not want that.

By listening to the Lebanese government, we got a fifteen-month ceasefire of utter Fiction while Gaza was rubbished.

Now, for at least one day, we have one that is an Iranian requirement. It has consequences.

If the windbags in DC say, "sure, we'll disarm Hezbollah", nothing happens.

It's no ultimate descent of peace as long as Israel exists. It would have to be de-militarized.

[Vicus]

Israel admits IDF operation against Lebanon failed -today

The Israeli ground operation in Lebanon has failed, according to Haaretz. The publication notes that the army planned to capture 1100 square kilometers of territory up to the Litani River, but after a month of fighting, the IDF controls no more than 300 square kilometers.

Reasons: fierce resistance from Hezbollah, the widespread use of FPV drones against Israeli armored vehicles, and serious command miscalculations.

– Haaretz states.

The author of the article adds that, according to experts, Israel has suffered its largest losses since the 1980s.

"The army was stretched to its limits and found itself in a deadly stalemate. Israel eventually agreed to a temporary ceasefire."

- says the publication.

Analyzing the IDF's losses, the publication emphasizes that since October 7, 2023, 929 Merkava tanks have been disabled by Hamas militants, and 275 Merkava tanks have been destroyed by Hezbollah.

It should be noted that, despite serious losses in technology Despite the threat of a military strike and the loss of personnel, Tel Aviv has no intention of abandoning its occupation of Lebanon's southern provinces. Even now, after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, the IDF continues to strike the neighboring state.

At the same time, international humanitarian organizations state that the victims Medical workers regularly become victims of Israeli bombings as they try to provide assistance to the victims.

https://en.topcor.ru/70485-v-izraile...iv-livana.html

[Rizotto]

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...d-fbf708e40000

April 17, 2026

Israel: Will Hold Captured Areas in South Lebanon; Beirut Insists on IDF Pullout
Israel's defense minister said the country remains 'in the midst' of its war with Hezbollah, while Lebanese President Aoun urged an Israeli withdrawal from the south and the return of captured Lebanese detainees

Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Friday, after the cease-fire with Lebanon took effect, that the Israeli army "holds and will maintain control over all the places it has cleared and captured." He stressed that Israel remains "in the midst of its war with Hezbollah," committed to "disarming it by military or diplomatic means."

(article continued at above link)
_____________________________________________________

Edited to add:
Personally I view this so-called 'ceasefire' as another I$rael scheme to annex more land. It's the same old scenario: attack the neighbors, invade militarily, and declare Hezbollah's resistance as 'terrorism', demand they disarm or else you keep occupying their lands. Which is no solution to anything, only conflict in perpetuity.

I don't believe brain-fried Trump had an original thought in any of this. It's probably a script that Bibi fed to him, once again.

The only thing that could change the course of the 'greater Israel' plan, is that Iran has shown to be much stronger than anticipated, the destruction of Israel and USA military bases is so extensive that the USA-Israel axis realize they cannot sustain this battle for much longer. In other words, they desperately need to regroup and collect munitions before conducting more warfare.

[Szymon]

Check out the crude oil stocks left in each country. You have to ask yourself what is going to happen when some of those countries reach 0 (Zero)...

"Two more weeks"...

Crude Oil 🛢️ stocks left by Country in Days

🇯🇵 Japan: 260 Days
🇸🇬 Singapore: 245 Days
🇰🇷 South Korea: 210 Days
🇻🇪 Venezuela:~886 Years
🇺🇸 USA: 200 Days
🇹🇼 Taiwan: 150 Days
🇨🇳 China: 104 Days
🇫🇷 France: 94 Days
🇩🇪 Germany: 92 Days
🇪🇸 Spain: 92 Days
🇮🇹 Italy: 91 Days
🇬🇧 UK: 85 Days
🇳🇱 Netherlands: 82 Days
🇹🇷 Turkey: 78 Days
🇮🇳 India: 74 Days
🇵🇱 Poland: 72 Days
🇦🇺 Australia: 58 Days
🇿🇦 South Africa: 52 Days
🇧🇷 Brazil: 48 Days
🇻🇳 Vietnam: 45 Days
🇹🇭 Thailand: 42 Days
🇲🇾 Malaysia: 38 Days
🇮🇩 Indonesia: 34 Days
🇵🇭 Philippines: 30 Days
🇲🇽 Mexico: 28 Days
🇪🇬 Egypt: 26 Days
🇦🇷 Argentina: 24 Days
🇨🇱 Chile: 22 Days
🇨🇴 Colombia: 21 Days
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 18 Days
🇲🇦 Morocco: 15 Days
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 14 Days
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 11 Days
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka: 10 Days
🇰🇪 Kenya: 9 Days
🇪🇹 Ethiopia: 8 Days
🇺🇦 Ukraine: 7 Days
🇮🇶 Iraq: 6 Days
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 5 Days
🇯🇴 Jordan: 4 Days
🇬🇭 Ghana: 3 Days

Note: For major exporters like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Russia, "days left" is measured in decades of production, not emergency storage.
#EnergySecurity #CrudeOil #OilPrice #Economy #Geopolitics

[Rizotto]

Prof. Ted Postol: Israel NAKED: No Air Defense, No Radars, No Interceptors - Escalation = Suicide

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=E1AbgZspGjw

[Ravenlocke]

محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf

Translated from Persian
1- The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false.

2- They did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either.

3- With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open.

https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970

[Ravenlocke]

ابراهیم عزیزی

The head of the national security commission of the Iranian parliament, Ebrahim Azizi


The time has come to comply with the new Maritime Regime of the Strait of Hormuz.

These regulations are determined by Iran, not by social media posts!

Under this new system, only commercial vessels with authorization from the IRGC Navy are permitted to navigate through designated routes after paying the required tolls.

If the U.S. attempts to create any disturbance for Iranian ships, this situation can easily be changed.

https://x.com/Ebrahimazizi33/status/2045231642588131536

[Ravenlocke]

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

It’s one thing for people to say in social media posts that the Strait is open and traffic is free, but then we have to look at what is actually happening on the surface of the water.

According to this video and tracker evidence, Iran is making good on its claim that the Hormuz traffic will remain closed until the US blockade is lifted.

Trump can claim whatever he wants on a social media post, but the only thing that matters is ground truth reality on the surface of the water in Strait of Hormuz.

https://x.com/DanielLDavis1/status/2045263868776038553