The Possibility of Famine

[Szymon]

One more post. A very interesting analysis of how the war will affect this potential famine. It wouldn't surprise me if this was created artificially.

https://markashryock.substack.com/p/...-shelves-sixty

You can wait one more day for Mark A. Shryock's Substack article to be released, or read it now on Hal's site.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index...=17&Itemid=101

article_famine.pdf

[Mike Gorman]

The human gut has a certain range of flora, whether we are digesting meat or vegetables our solid waste has a bacterial loading that is the result of our intestinal flora - the vegetarians are always trying to claim their **** doesn't stink, or that it is not really harmful/toxic, I can assure you it makes little difference what you eat as to how noisome/perilous your bowel motions are-if you are exposed you will become very ill indeed. However I think those composting toilets can produce actually useful manure/fertilizer which poses much less of a threat to health, perhaps investigating some system of composting human waste could be a genuine solution for farming- I am certain clever hippies have done this in the past, I recall in the 1970's people discussing this very subject!
While we are on the subject of 'making do' - Bio-diesel is a true thing, we can use chip-shop used oil, sunflower oil, and a few other seed oils to run diesel vehicles, you have to include a certain percentage of volatile substances (like alcohol) I believe, but there always seems to be an alternative we can get by with: if it came to it, perhaps a full on famine can be at least mitigated by lateral solutions?

[Ewan]

Posted by Mike Gorman (here)
The human gut has a certain range of flora, whether we are digesting meat or vegetables our solid waste has a bacterial loading that is the result of our intestinal flora - the vegetarians are always trying to claim their **** doesn't stink, or that it is not really harmful/toxic, I can assure you it makes little difference what you eat as to how noisome/perilous your bowel motions are-if you are exposed you will become very ill indeed. However I think those composting toilets can produce actually useful manure/fertilizer which poses much less of a threat to health, perhaps investigating some system of composting human waste could be a genuine solution for farming- I am certain clever hippies have done this in the past, I recall in the 1970's people discussing this very subject!
While we are on the subject of 'making do' - Bio-diesel is a true thing, we can use chip-shop used oil, sunflower oil, and a few other seed oils to run diesel vehicles, you have to include a certain percentage of volatile substances (like alcohol) I believe, but there always seems to be an alternative we can get by with: if it came to it, perhaps a full on famine can be at least mitigated by lateral solutions?

Videos - list

https://www.wikihow.com/Make-Bio-Diesel

Now might be a good time to run an experiment.

[Szymon]

Hi Friends, this does not look good. If the price of potatoes is already factored into the futures contract, it's only a matter of time before the ordinary consumer starts paying for it at the checkout. Time will tell.

Potato futures soar 700% in less than a month on Iran war speculation

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/fe...104819146.html



https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GOJ27/overview

Look at the next year's potato futures, even higher than the current.

The futures market is a crucial mechanism designed for hedging, allowing producers, consumers, and investors to manage risk by locking in prices and protecting against adverse price fluctuations. By using futures to set a predetermined price, parties can reduce uncertainty regarding future expenses or revenues, shifting price risk to speculators.

[Szymon]

Here is another post I just came across about the impending world famine.

[shaberon]

Posted by Mike Gorman (here)
While we are on the subject of 'making do' - Bio-diesel is a true thing, we can use chip-shop used oil, sunflower oil, and a few other seed oils to run diesel vehicles, you have to include a certain percentage of volatile substances (like alcohol) I believe, but there always seems to be an alternative we can get by with: if it came to it, perhaps a full on famine can be at least mitigated by lateral solutions?

Yes diesel is quite versatile...and a jet engine was designed to run on peanut butter if need be.

The thing to the diesel is there is an enormous energy input to produce it; it may be net negative.

An inverse point that could be made is for example, the acreage needed to sustain a head of cattle compared to what it could produce as vegetable crops. Most of that is a big difference, except for things like pig cities which have less to do with free range, and, instead, an import of feed. How much energy towards pigs, chickens, etc., compared to edible crop land?

Those are long-term issues that were actually raised a long time ago, but were effectively tabled.


Specifically for America, we are already in the situation where...I think it's called an H1B Visa...has been price hiked in a way that gouges seasonal labor.

Moreover, we already started off last year bad. These are some outlooks from the first part of the year before any resources went missing.


USDA:

USDA now estimates that 2025 net farm income totaled about $154.6 billion, down roughly $25 billion from the $179.8 billion forecast in September. Net cash farm income for 2025 was similarly revised down to about $153.9 billion, nearly $27 billion below the $180.7 billion previously projected.

At the same time, USDA revised 2025 production expenses higher, to $473.1 billion, while adjusting direct government payments lower, to about $30.5 billion, roughly $10 billion below earlier expectations. Together, these revisions suggest the farm economy is experiencing a generational downturn rather than a temporary slowdown. Outside of the cattle sector, most commodity markets are weakening. The updated forecast further cements that the expectations of a strong income rebound for 2025 did not come to fruition and this reinforces that farm profitability last year was more fragile than previously believed.

First Look at 2026

Against that backdrop, USDA’s first look at 2026 points to continued pressure in the farm economy. Net farm income is forecast at $153.4 billion in 2026, down $1.2 billion from 2025 in nominal terms, while net cash farm income is projected to rise modestly to $158.5 billion. Despite remaining above long-run averages, the 2026 outlook continues to reflect declining market-based receipts and an ongoing reliance on government support.

Ag America:

As U.S. agriculture moves into 2026, producers face a complex landscape. While 2025 showed nominal gains in net farm income, much of that growth was supported by government programs rather than market-driven returns.

Looking ahead, the 2026 agricultural economy outlook points to:

Further tightening of credit conditions
Stubbornly high costs
Ongoing market unpredictability

Yes, if you're running government production, you were taken care of. But what is that stuff for? Bio-diesel?? Not necessarily.


Met Life:

Stark contrast between the profitability of proteins and row crops will persist.
• Input costs, particularly fertilizer, will remain elevated for row crops

They go on to specifically tell you that cattle will be profitable. Usually the consumers are willing to pay more. You just raise the price.

Seen as profit, this completely contradicts need.


Purdue Ag Dept.:

Non-real estate assets are expected to decline in 2026, driven by a decrease in animal, animal products, and crop inventory (Figure 2). Animal and animal product inventory is forecast to decline by $15 billion between 2025 and 2026, ending three straight years of asset growth in the livestock category. While total non-real estate assets are declining, a few categories are forecast to expand in 2026. Farm machinery and vehicles are expected to increase by $12 billion, continuing a four-year trend of growth.

Yes, the equipment is already more expensive, now the fuel to run it is too.

That, plus the weather seeming a bit unseasonably dry, and this year does not look very good from the outset. Certainly not in terms of the business model, although the conclusion is not that you will run out of things to eat. Once it starts running people out of business, different story.

With the, eh, monkey wrench that has been thrown at everything, it can only go from worse to worserer.

My guess would be if global south countries want to eat, they will have to default on their American or IMF loans. There would be signs if someone is trying to save themselves.

[Szymon]

Hi Friends,

Looks like the situation is getting real. I suggest stocking up if you can, so you can lock in today's prices before they go up and supply chain issues start.

Farmers Abandon Wheat Crop, Igniting Global Food Shortage Fears

https://unshadowed.substack.com/p/fa...-crop-igniting

Fertilizer costs reaching tipping point

https://www.world-grain.com/articles...-tipping-point

Cheers,
Szymon