The Possibility of Famine

[Szymon]

One more post. A very interesting analysis of how the war will affect this potential famine. It wouldn't surprise me if this was created artificially.

https://markashryock.substack.com/p/...-shelves-sixty

You can wait one more day for Mark A. Shryock's Substack article to be released, or read it now on Hal's site.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index...=17&Itemid=101

article_famine.pdf

[Mike Gorman]

The human gut has a certain range of flora, whether we are digesting meat or vegetables our solid waste has a bacterial loading that is the result of our intestinal flora - the vegetarians are always trying to claim their **** doesn't stink, or that it is not really harmful/toxic, I can assure you it makes little difference what you eat as to how noisome/perilous your bowel motions are-if you are exposed you will become very ill indeed. However I think those composting toilets can produce actually useful manure/fertilizer which poses much less of a threat to health, perhaps investigating some system of composting human waste could be a genuine solution for farming- I am certain clever hippies have done this in the past, I recall in the 1970's people discussing this very subject!
While we are on the subject of 'making do' - Bio-diesel is a true thing, we can use chip-shop used oil, sunflower oil, and a few other seed oils to run diesel vehicles, you have to include a certain percentage of volatile substances (like alcohol) I believe, but there always seems to be an alternative we can get by with: if it came to it, perhaps a full on famine can be at least mitigated by lateral solutions?

[Ewan]

Posted by Mike Gorman (here)
The human gut has a certain range of flora, whether we are digesting meat or vegetables our solid waste has a bacterial loading that is the result of our intestinal flora - the vegetarians are always trying to claim their **** doesn't stink, or that it is not really harmful/toxic, I can assure you it makes little difference what you eat as to how noisome/perilous your bowel motions are-if you are exposed you will become very ill indeed. However I think those composting toilets can produce actually useful manure/fertilizer which poses much less of a threat to health, perhaps investigating some system of composting human waste could be a genuine solution for farming- I am certain clever hippies have done this in the past, I recall in the 1970's people discussing this very subject!
While we are on the subject of 'making do' - Bio-diesel is a true thing, we can use chip-shop used oil, sunflower oil, and a few other seed oils to run diesel vehicles, you have to include a certain percentage of volatile substances (like alcohol) I believe, but there always seems to be an alternative we can get by with: if it came to it, perhaps a full on famine can be at least mitigated by lateral solutions?

Videos - list

https://www.wikihow.com/Make-Bio-Diesel

Now might be a good time to run an experiment.

[Szymon]

Hi Friends, this does not look good. If the price of potatoes is already factored into the futures contract, it's only a matter of time before the ordinary consumer starts paying for it at the checkout. Time will tell.

Potato futures soar 700% in less than a month on Iran war speculation

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/fe...104819146.html



https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/GOJ27/overview

Look at the next year's potato futures, even higher than the current.

The futures market is a crucial mechanism designed for hedging, allowing producers, consumers, and investors to manage risk by locking in prices and protecting against adverse price fluctuations. By using futures to set a predetermined price, parties can reduce uncertainty regarding future expenses or revenues, shifting price risk to speculators.

[Szymon]

Here is another post I just came across about the impending world famine.

[shaberon]

Posted by Mike Gorman (here)
While we are on the subject of 'making do' - Bio-diesel is a true thing, we can use chip-shop used oil, sunflower oil, and a few other seed oils to run diesel vehicles, you have to include a certain percentage of volatile substances (like alcohol) I believe, but there always seems to be an alternative we can get by with: if it came to it, perhaps a full on famine can be at least mitigated by lateral solutions?

Yes diesel is quite versatile...and a jet engine was designed to run on peanut butter if need be.

The thing to the diesel is there is an enormous energy input to produce it; it may be net negative.

An inverse point that could be made is for example, the acreage needed to sustain a head of cattle compared to what it could produce as vegetable crops. Most of that is a big difference, except for things like pig cities which have less to do with free range, and, instead, an import of feed. How much energy towards pigs, chickens, etc., compared to edible crop land?

Those are long-term issues that were actually raised a long time ago, but were effectively tabled.


Specifically for America, we are already in the situation where...I think it's called an H1B Visa...has been price hiked in a way that gouges seasonal labor.

Moreover, we already started off last year bad. These are some outlooks from the first part of the year before any resources went missing.


USDA:

USDA now estimates that 2025 net farm income totaled about $154.6 billion, down roughly $25 billion from the $179.8 billion forecast in September. Net cash farm income for 2025 was similarly revised down to about $153.9 billion, nearly $27 billion below the $180.7 billion previously projected.

At the same time, USDA revised 2025 production expenses higher, to $473.1 billion, while adjusting direct government payments lower, to about $30.5 billion, roughly $10 billion below earlier expectations. Together, these revisions suggest the farm economy is experiencing a generational downturn rather than a temporary slowdown. Outside of the cattle sector, most commodity markets are weakening. The updated forecast further cements that the expectations of a strong income rebound for 2025 did not come to fruition and this reinforces that farm profitability last year was more fragile than previously believed.

First Look at 2026

Against that backdrop, USDA’s first look at 2026 points to continued pressure in the farm economy. Net farm income is forecast at $153.4 billion in 2026, down $1.2 billion from 2025 in nominal terms, while net cash farm income is projected to rise modestly to $158.5 billion. Despite remaining above long-run averages, the 2026 outlook continues to reflect declining market-based receipts and an ongoing reliance on government support.

Ag America:

As U.S. agriculture moves into 2026, producers face a complex landscape. While 2025 showed nominal gains in net farm income, much of that growth was supported by government programs rather than market-driven returns.

Looking ahead, the 2026 agricultural economy outlook points to:

Further tightening of credit conditions
Stubbornly high costs
Ongoing market unpredictability

Yes, if you're running government production, you were taken care of. But what is that stuff for? Bio-diesel?? Not necessarily.


Met Life:

Stark contrast between the profitability of proteins and row crops will persist.
• Input costs, particularly fertilizer, will remain elevated for row crops

They go on to specifically tell you that cattle will be profitable. Usually the consumers are willing to pay more. You just raise the price.

Seen as profit, this completely contradicts need.


Purdue Ag Dept.:

Non-real estate assets are expected to decline in 2026, driven by a decrease in animal, animal products, and crop inventory (Figure 2). Animal and animal product inventory is forecast to decline by $15 billion between 2025 and 2026, ending three straight years of asset growth in the livestock category. While total non-real estate assets are declining, a few categories are forecast to expand in 2026. Farm machinery and vehicles are expected to increase by $12 billion, continuing a four-year trend of growth.

Yes, the equipment is already more expensive, now the fuel to run it is too.

That, plus the weather seeming a bit unseasonably dry, and this year does not look very good from the outset. Certainly not in terms of the business model, although the conclusion is not that you will run out of things to eat. Once it starts running people out of business, different story.

With the, eh, monkey wrench that has been thrown at everything, it can only go from worse to worserer.

My guess would be if global south countries want to eat, they will have to default on their American or IMF loans. There would be signs if someone is trying to save themselves.

[Szymon]

Hi Friends,

Looks like the situation is getting real. I suggest stocking up if you can, so you can lock in today's prices before they go up and supply chain issues start.

Farmers Abandon Wheat Crop, Igniting Global Food Shortage Fears

https://unshadowed.substack.com/p/fa...-crop-igniting

Fertilizer costs reaching tipping point

https://www.world-grain.com/articles...-tipping-point

Cheers,
Szymon

[Mike Gorman]

I am hording plenty of flour, which is still pretty cheap where I am, also dry yeast (baker's yeast) which is also cheap at the moment, it is easy to bake very nice loaves of bread & this staves off hunger, has plenty of nourishment - just another mundane but practical step we can take to survive: if this crisis really unfolds flour/yeast might become scarce, keep the flour sealed up & dry of course! I actually like baking bread, there is something very primal & satisfying about it, smells delicious when cooking also.

[grapevine]

Mike, put the flour in the freezer for an hour to stop any weevils, if youre keeping it for any length of time, though you may prefer the extra protein

[Szymon]

Posted by Mike Gorman (here)
I am hording plenty of flour, which is still pretty cheap where I am, also dry yeast (baker's yeast) which is also cheap at the moment, it is easy to bake very nice loaves of bread & this staves off hunger, has plenty of nourishment - just another mundane but practical step we can take to survive: if this crisis really unfolds flour/yeast might become scarce, keep the flour sealed up & dry of course! I actually like baking bread, there is something very primal & satisfying about it, smells delicious when cooking also.

I hear you... I've got lots of flour, yeast, and a couple of bread makers. I've been baking since the COVID days. I love it.

[grapevine]

Fasting vs Disease: The Science That Could Change Everything

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=xaZOwwauuvc

56:15

This video was first released as a documentary in 2011 and many of us are aware of the benefits of water fasting. Even so, there's much in this video which you may find interesting, like information on the crises which are sometimes experienced by fasters and also that mentally ill patients have been successfully treated with fasting.

So too are the comments under the video, which you'll need to click on the link to see in full, one of which was particularly relevant: "Every one will be fasting soon not by choice" and this may play the most important and effective role if the worldwide famine gets a grip, ie. working out the most beneficial ways of rotating fasting with eating.


"220,261 views 14 May 2026
While life expectancy is increasing in Western countries, cases of diabetes, hypertension, obesity and cancer are increasing, and the use of medication has exploded. Does this mean that in order to live to a ripe age we are condemned to swallow more and more drugs? What if there was another way? For half a century, in Russia, Germany and the U.S., doctors and biologists have been exploring a different therapeutic approach: fasting. The results are amazing. Soviet researchers have provided a body of clinical studies of exceptional wealth…only published in Russian, and thus unknown in the West.Young biologists from the University of Los Angeles have overturned conventional wisdom and used molecular biology to demonstrate the powerful effects of fasting. This research suggests a wide-ranging potential, which could include treatments for the disease of the century, cancer. If these scientists are right, maybe our approach to disease and treatment will need a rethink."

Note to Mods: Please move this post to one of the fasting threads if you feel it's more relevant, but as food prices are set to rise (still further) from this month, and there's very little mention in the mainstream news, this video is a reminder that it's time we knuckle down to discussing the workable and sustainable actions we can take to face what may lie ahead, apart from hoarding food.

[shaberon]

Posted by grapevine (here)
...as food prices are set to rise (still further) from this month, and there's very little mention in the mainstream news, this video is a reminder that it's time we knuckle down to discussing the workable and sustainable actions we can take to face what may lie ahead, apart from hoarding food.

I haven't really seen this kick in yet.

This is supposed to be NYC:




You can understand it takes them a while to re-stock the shelf of fruit they've packed, but, the shelf beside that, of pre-packaged products, looks a little sparse.

Some are saying this is worse than 9/11, the 2008 "crisis", or Covid, rivalled only by the 1973 gas lines.

The poll also finds that nearly 60% of the country says Trump has not protected Americans from the war's impact, but his aggression has clearly spiraled out of American control, backfired in countless ways economically and geopolitically, and shows no sign of improving for Washington's ambitions.

Once global oil reserves are drastically depleted, which will happen as soon as late June, the economic impact of the war will be severely exacerbated.

I don't know or I personally have not noticed anything besides gas prices. I'd rather not talk about a food shortage manufactured by someone who callously dumps uncontrollable consequences on the world. Looks like we may be kited into it.

[gini]

"We Only Eat Once A Day": How The Iran War Hits Asia's Food Supply | Insight´

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=tWH12e4Nl-8

--46 min--12 Jun 2026 #FoodCrisis #CNAInsider #IranWar
´The impact of war on Iran is rippling across Asia. Disrupted fertiliser supply chains choke farm production in India and Bangladesh, where factories shut and farmers cut back on nutrient use, threatening lower yields and rising staple prices. Meanwhile, soaring oil prices inflate transport and input costs, leading to food inflation across vulnerable economies. In the Philippines, which relies heavily on imported fuel, near-doubling energy costs keep fishing boats ashore. Shrinking seafood supply is and pushing fish beyond reach for poorer households. The long tail effects of the conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is being felt on the tables across Asia. How much worse will food insecurity get?´

[Szymon]

Check this out on RT.

Prof. Steve Keen: ‘FAMINES UNAVOIDABLE because of Strait of Hormuz closure. Up to 2 BILLION could starve.’

‘The extent to which we’re reliant upon chemical fertilisers derived from oil feedstock is extremely high. In the absence of the Haber-Bosch process and the process for producing both nitrogenous fertilisers and phosphate-based fertilisers, without the oil, you can’t produce them.

And 30% of the world’s fertiliser passes through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly speaking.

Now, without the fertiliser in general, the carrying capacity of the planet falls from about 8.5 billion people, which is how many people we have right now, down to between 1 and 2 billion. That’s the extent to which we’re reliant upon petroleum-based fertilisers for food output.

If you lose 30% of the fertiliser that the planet relies upon, at the extreme that implies that something of the order of only 6 billion people can be supported by our food systems, down from the current 8.5 to 9 billion people we’re supporting now.

There is some buffer inside there in terms of roughly 30% of food being wasted. But the extent to which we rely upon a continuous flow of petroleum-based fertilisers cannot be overestimated.

And if we have a disruption to the supply of those fertilisers, anywhere from 10 or 20 million people through to the ludicrous scale, I have to admit, of 2 billion, that’s the potential range of disaster.’

—Prof. Steve Keen discusses the economic damage from the US-Israeli war on Iran on the latest episode of Going Underground

Watch the full interview: https://rumble.com/v7b9roi-iran-famine-and-financial-crisis-unavoidable-if-strait-of-hormuz-remains-sh.html

https://t.me/rtnews/154771

Source: https://www.rumble.com/video/v7933oa

[Ewan]

Honestly I cannot wrap my head around this kind of news. Does nobody consider we existed for thousands of years with no fertilisers?, except of course the natural ones from farm stock, be they chickens, goats, cattle etc.

I believe we made it this far because we adapted, it seems these days that no-one has any imagination or simply does not understand the concept of 'another way'.

[shaberon]

Posted by Ewan (here)
Honestly I cannot wrap my head around this kind of news. Does nobody consider we existed for thousands of years with no fertilisers?, except of course the natural ones from farm stock, be they chickens, goats, cattle etc.

I believe we made it this far because we adapted, it seems these days that no-one has any imagination or simply does not understand the concept of 'another way'.

Yes, but even primitive methods lead to disaster, whether by de-forestation, or unexpected problems like the importation of foreign grass messes with the salt ratio in the soil. That's aside from drought and other factors, which all probably led to the "disappearance" of some civilizations. This can be found around 2,000 B. C. E. but you also notice Ireland nearly vanishing only about 200 years ago.


Today this is like a double-edged sword, because fertilizer and increased production are the only reason for the population boom.

It still concerns me. We will either reach a Peak Oil phenomenon in the foreseeable future, or, manufacture it on our own.

Rather than predictions, it's actually measurable if planting rates are low, growth is stunted, or whatever; we could tell if grain output is going to diminish.

On the other hand, knowing that in the US, all vegetables are going to be unprofitable right now, and, if anything, the money is in beef, there might be concern in running the businesses that do these things. Who would make all those animal feeds for nothing?

The US already has issues with wheat and fruit, before new expenses and dwindling supplies kick in. I wouldn't say that x loss of fertilizer equates to y loss of human beings, however it is saddening to think of any effect at all. Even though we can probably hide it by having other countries bear the brunt.

[Ewan]

Posted by shaberon (here)

Posted by Ewan (here)
Honestly I cannot wrap my head around this kind of news. Does nobody consider we existed for thousands of years with no fertilisers?, except of course the natural ones from farm stock, be they chickens, goats, cattle etc.

I believe we made it this far because we adapted, it seems these days that no-one has any imagination or simply does not understand the concept of 'another way'.

Yes, but even primitive methods lead to disaster, whether by de-forestation, or unexpected problems like the importation of foreign grass messes with the salt ratio in the soil. That's aside from drought and other factors, which all probably led to the "disappearance" of some civilizations. This can be found around 2,000 B. C. E. but you also notice Ireland nearly vanishing only about 200 years ago.


Today this is like a double-edged sword, because fertilizer and increased production are the only reason for the population boom.

It still concerns me. We will either reach a Peak Oil phenomenon in the foreseeable future, or, manufacture it on our own.

Rather than predictions, it's actually measurable if planting rates are low, growth is stunted, or whatever; we could tell if grain output is going to diminish.

On the other hand, knowing that in the US, all vegetables are going to be unprofitable right now, and, if anything, the money is in beef, there might be concern in running the businesses that do these things. Who would make all those animal feeds for nothing?

The US already has issues with wheat and fruit, before new expenses and dwindling supplies kick in. I wouldn't say that x loss of fertilizer equates to y loss of human beings, however it is saddening to think of any effect at all. Even though we can probably hide it by having other countries bear the brunt.

We should know better than to repeat the obvious errors of a 1,000 years ago or more. The situation in Ireland needs a lot more investigation to understand that in such a short comment as disappearing - though you are correct, it was a precarious time.

I, tentatively, refer you to my post here.

There are always other methods, all it takes is the will (and acceptance leading to understanding).

Incidentally, I imagine you are aware that modern fertilizers are effectively killing the very soils they are supposed to be boosting?

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Ewan (here)
I imagine you are aware that modern fertilizers are effectively killing the very soils they are supposed to be boosting?

I think that's part of the compound problem: farmers have been slowly killing their Golden Goose for a hundred years or more.

Regarding our dependence on fertilizers, another aspect is the sheer number of people. If we aim to grow food 'naturally', we could indeed do it — as long as the population was smaller. (Sri Lanka tried this in 2021, and it just didn't work)

~~~

Off- topic here, but this is one reason why I'm quite sure personally that the world's population is already way too large for our limited resources to support it. (See this thread: The Limits to Growth, and the Human Condition, which is about limited energy supplies)

[rgray222]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Posted by Ewan (here)
I imagine you are aware that modern fertilizers are effectively killing the very soils they are supposed to be boosting?

I think that's part of the compound problem: farmers have been slowly killing their Golden Goose for a hundred years or more.

Regarding our dependence on fertilizers, another aspect is the sheer number of people. If we aim to grow food 'naturally', we could indeed do it — as long as the population was smaller. (Sri Lanka tried this in 2021, and it just didn't work)

~~~

Off- topic here, but this is one reason why I'm quite sure personally that the world's population is already way too large for our limited resources to support it. (See this thread: The Limits to Growth, and the Human Condition, which is about limited energy supplies)

Oddly enough, it is fertilzer that is credited with causing the population boom, specifically synthetic nitrogen fertilizer developed by Fritz Haber, a German chemist, called the Haber process. This served as the detonator for the population explosion, allowing it to increase from 1.6 billion around 1900 to 8 billion today.

Also, just as a side note, I watched a few videos today of people saying climate change was going to cause a massive famine by now. People include Macron, Obama, AOC, Kofi Annan, Tony Blair and many others. The famine scare is effective, so it is used with no discretion, little honesty and no morals. It is all about power and control. After crying wolf so many times, one day it will turn up at the door and catch people unprepared.

[Abondance]

Let's talk about the possibility of No-famine :


The syntropic system developed by Ernst Götsch (among other regenerative techniques) has clearly proven its effectiveness in restoring and improving soil quality. Coming from Switzerland to Brazil, he settled in the 1980s on a barren, leached, heavily deforested land. Today, his teaching farm supports a large community, and his model has been applied worldwide in all kinds of climates, including desert ones. The yields achieved in food crops, fruits, or any other plant products are truly amazing.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=_ST9NyHf09M

Why Sri Lanka experiment has failed ?

As usual, these are certainly political decisions made by people who know nothing about the reality on the ground or natural processes. If you go overnight from crops pumped with 'steroids' and pesticides on dead soil to organic farming, you’re headed straight for disaster. It already takes several years to restore soil fertility and health! Entire populations of farmers trained in biochemistry and Monsanto's products ended up having to apply principles that were totally unknown or forgotten. The disaster was inevitable. Even the most experienced organic farmers will tell you how hard it is to start from scratch on sick and exhausted land. It's not that organic farming can't produce enough; it's that it takes time and knowledge.

Ernst Götsch's syntropy goes beyond organic farming, which by itself may not restore soil quality and might just get by with doing less worse.



For Götsch, we've been exhausting the soil for thousands of years without understanding how it works. It's not just a problem of 50 years of biochemistry and fertilizers. For him, most of the techniques used by our ancestors never really knew how to maintain and restore rich, living soils. Lands were simply abandoned or left fallow for years so that time could give a little back to what had been taken away.