Israel vs Palestine/Lebanon/Iran/Yemen/Syria: a New Middle East War

[ExomatrixTV]

• CHINA VS ISRAEL: 'Military Pressure Will Only Backfire,' China's Explosive Warning To Israel:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=smRwsQvGAUI

"...no country can build its security upon the insecurity of others."

[The KMan]

Plenty of theories running at the moment and a lot going on in this thread. The MOU is a stalling trick, Israel is waiting for Iran to crack, Hezbollah gets cut loose, Lebanon tips into civil war, the Saudis go into Yemen, a broader Sunni vs Shia mobilisation gets pushed along and now the New York results are either a communist takeover or a progressive golden age depending on who you ask. Wow.

There is a question I keep coming back to with all of this. If any of it is directionally true, what should we actually see over the next couple of months? I am loosely using something like Professor Pape’s escalation logic as a reference point in the background here but reality rarely climbs neatly step by step. It tends to run multiple tracks at once. Here is my watch list.

The MOU as a stall.
If it is just buying time, the 60 day window quietly runs down while both sides rebuild capability. If it is real, we get a final deal locked in and actual drawdowns as agreed. The early tell is already visible. Iran is signalling it will charge transit fees in Hormuz and that is not in the text. Whether that gets absorbed or turns into a dispute is one of the cleanest indicators of where this goes. One catch though. Both sides benefit from the pause. Iran is restocking and rebuilding air defences so buying time is true on both sides and does not really prove intent.

Worth adding a real world check here. Shipping behaviour. If insurance premiums jump, rerouting increases or Gulf traffic fragments that usually moves before official statements.

Iran fracturing and Hezbollah splitting off.
If that were happening you would expect funding and resupply to tighten or open disagreement between Tehran and Hezbollah. So far the signals point the other way. The stated condition for Iran signing the MOU was that the resistance stays protected in the talks. Pressure to split them still looks external rather than internal.

Lebanon as the hinge.
This one I take seriously. If disarmament shifts from negotiation to force or parts of the Lebanese army stop following orders that is where it breaks. If instead we see a structured Israeli withdrawal timetable the temperature drops. Lebanon is where the whole ceasefire lives or dies.

In escalation terms this is the clearest point where things could jump from controlled pressure into broader regional expansion.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
What is visible so far is consolidation rather than attack. The thing to watch is not rhetoric but whether the Tehran to Sana’a flights that just restarted after eleven years continue unimpeded. The Houthis have said they will respond militarily if anyone blocks them. Watch the flights not the speeches.

Sunni vs Shia mobilisation.
More a narrative being floated than an active process. The war was effectively offered to Damascus and declined and regional states have so far acted as a brake rather than a trigger. It goes live if state money starts flowing back into proxies or if Syria Lebanon border incidents escalate or if someone hits a Shia target designed to force a retaliation cycle. Until then it is best seen as solicited but not activated.

US domestic clock and broader system timing.
Worth keeping in the background. Everything is running against the same political timeline into November. Washington wants containment through that window. Tehran is behaving like it is preparing for post window conditions rather than permanence. And inside the US foreign policy especially Gaza is now a live wedge issue in a handful of Democratic primaries and that is already showing up in local House races.

At the institutional level China’s recent UNSC framing on Gaza has reinforced a hard two state position with 1967 borders and occupation language. Less a shift in position more confirmation that Gaza is hardening into a legitimacy divide between blocs not just a battlefield issue.

Simple rule I try to stick to. If a theory explains everything it usually predicts nothing. Every item above has a way to fail and that is what makes it worth writing down.

[bojancan]

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth lied about the cost of the Iran war. Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian discuss on The Young Turks

July, 05
The Young Turks
6.67M subscribers
SHOCK: Iran War's REAL PRICE TAG Revealed

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=fw8K8JQXjiQ

[Arcturian108]

From Armin Navabi's Twitter account, signs of the opposition in Iran arming to take on the Islamic Iranian regime: (link with video)

"ANOTHER BRAND NEW VIDEO DIRECT FROM IRAN: The call to be armed has evolved. This is no longer about small-scale tactics or asking for pistols to target low-level regime forces; it is the deployment of a next-level strategy. A highly sophisticated, organized force inside Iran is preparing for a decisive action to finish the matter.

These individuals are sending videos directly to me to break through the silence and project a completely new reality on the ground. This latest footage reveals a group operating east of Tehran near Pardis and Jajrud, confidently displaying their exact GPS location before setting up a fleet of FPV and surveillance drones. Their message is absolute: the era of disorganized vigilantes playing around with guns is over. They are operating with modern tools and calculated precision.

On the audio track, a mechanically disguised voice delivers a clear warning directly to the state: "This time you are in the center of our target. We are not waiting for the help of others, and we are waiting for you where you do not expect it." The message ends with the declaration "Long live Iran, Javid Shah" (Long Live the King). While they are maintaining strict operational security by keeping their exact targets and timelines secret, they promise the results will be seen soon.

For the millions they represent, peaceful protest against live ammunition has proven impossible. They aren't asking for foreign boots on the ground. They are demonstrating that if Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has a force at his command, that force is intelligent, advanced, and ready. And let’s be clear: the only viable path to effectively arming and coordinating this movement is through direct alignment with the Prince and his team.

They risked their lives to deliver this proof straight from the ground. More people need to amplify their call. Do not let the regime bury their bravery."

[Ravenlocke]

-- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 -- reposted

IRNA News Agency ☫

India Today journalist
@Geeta_Mohan
:
Ayatollah Khamenei's martyrdom has united not only all Shia Muslims but also Sunnis with the Shias.

https://x.com/IrnaEnglish/status/2073893639038599357

[Ravenlocke]

Pepe Escobar

RESPECT

https://x.com/RealPepeEscobar/status...41956133818817

Pepe Escobar

Jul 5
The shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf, Iraq - one of the most dazzling sanctuaries on the planet, which I had the privilege to visit several trimes - is being prepared to receive the body of assassinated Leader Khamenei ahead of the funeral procession

https://x.com/RealPepeEscobar/status...90343875563841

[shaberon]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
You tried to assassinate Ayatollah Khomeini, but in reality, you broke a bottle of perfume whose fragrance spread everywhere. You don't understand these things because you have no civilization, no history, and no honor.

That's very true.

Ongoing lament from Hamas about renewed murders:

“The mediators and the “Board of Peace” bear direct responsibility for the continuation of this horrific slaughter against our people in Gaza, amid the absence of genuine efforts to halt the genocide that the government of war criminal Netanyahu continues to perpetrate without deterrence or regard for the consequences,” the statement added.

“We renew our call for the mediators, and Arab and Islamic states, to intensify their pressure on the occupation to halt this series of Zionist crimes, which will remain a stain on the occupation and its backers,” Hamas concluded.

And in Lebanon, blowing away school principal Esperanza Ghandour, her mother, and two workers.





The reaction against Israel is about seventy years too slow, and, I'm not sure what it is yet. The United States should be leading an attack against it. But, we have a stupid problem, being uncivilized and all that.

[Ravenlocke]

Dimitri Lascaris

At today’s funeral procession for Iran’s slain Supreme Leader, a huge, English-language banner proclaims a $100M Iranian bounty for Trump.

https://x.com/dimitrilascaris/status...91372953694702

Chay Bowes

Hashtag "Kill Trump".

Mourners in Tehran called for President Trump's elimination during Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's funeral.

Some have already suggested a $100M bounty.


https://x.com/BowesChay/status/2074091739950858596

RT Intl

'KILL TRUMP: $100M IRANIAN BOUNTY' — banner waved during late Supreme Leader Khamenei's procession

Trump's image gets STONED by Iranians during late Supreme Leader Khamenei's procession — Tasnim

The text on the banner says: ‘We won't let you go’

https://x.com/RT_on_X/status/2074068816477479095

[Ravenlocke]

COMBATE |🇵🇷

Israeli Journalist on Khamenei's funeral:

"Khamenei was elevated to a Shia martyr, like the hidden Imam who sacrificed his life for the Shia ideal. The West failed to bring Iran to its knees. The signs, speeches, and ceremonies all speak of revenge."

https://x.com/upholdreality/status/2074154451879739451

[Ravenlocke]

Karim Emile Bitar

🇱🇧 Powerful and deeply patriotic statement by Beirut MP and former Chairman of the Bar Association Melhem Khalaf who rebukes Netanyahu’s

fabricated claims that villages in South Lebanon had requested annexation by Israel.

He also reminds all Lebanese of the imperative of national unity against attempts to provoke civil strife.

As one of the very few MPs who visits South Lebanon every week,

@MelhemKhalaf’s words carry particular weight.

I hope Lebanon’s official representatives express themselves on this matter with the same conviction.

https://x.com/karimbitar/status/2074145696014336149

[Ravenlocke]

Iran Observer

⚡️BREAKING: Two people have been Arrested during Ayatollah Khamenei's Funeral Procession while attempting to plant Bombs among the crowd

https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/2074198928669430207

[Rizotto]

There's an international movement to pressure Israel to release Dr. Abu Safiya now. Here's one version, from Canada:

Emergency rally today (Jul 6) for Dr. Abu Safiya in Toronto. Please attend.
If you cannot make it kindly see below for how you can still demand his immediate release. Dr. Abu Safiya's has been detained (with no charge whatsoever), tortured and denied necessary medical attention by Israeli authorities for hundreds of days. His life is in imminent and unnecessary danger.
Act wherever you are. What you do matters.
--
**Statement from organizers:

🍉✊🏽Free Palestine
🚨 SAVE DR. ABU SAFIYA 🚨
Calling on Canadians: Urgent action needed! (See directions below.)
⏳️ TIME IS RUNNING OUT
Pediatrician and medical director Dr. Hussam Abu Safiya has been tortured by Israel for 555+ days and is on the brink of death.
Dr. Abu Safiya dedicated himself to caring for patients under impossible conditions, as director of Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza.
He has been held by Israel without charge or due process since December 2024.
Since their latest visit, Dr. Abu Safiya’s legal counsel have documented and are raising the alarm on a catastrophic deterioration in his physical and psychological condition under Israeli custody.
🚨 EMERGENCY CANADA-WIDE CALL TO ACTION 🚨
OPERATION: FLOOD THE ZONE
CALL & EMAIL:
1) CONTACT YOUR MP
Demand that they use their diplomatic leverage to free Dr. Abu Safiya.
2) CONTACT FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTER ANITA ANAND
Ottawa: 613-995-4014 / Constituency (Oakville):
905-338-2008 / Anita.Anand@Parl.gc.ca
3) DEMAND ACTION FROM THE CANADIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION
Call: 800-663-7336
DO THIS NOW, ONE AFTER ANOTHER. THEN, PASS THIS ON.

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid...92382440933782

[Rizotto]

Considering Canada's prime minister Mark Carney's support for Trump's military attack on Iran, I'm astounded to see Canadian state media in Iran reporting on the funeral of slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Perhaps it's because French-Canadian media (i.e. Radio-Canada) has a more realistic understanding of the middle east political situation.

"Our correspondent Marie-Ève ​​Bédard was granted a very rare privilege for a journalist: she attended the public funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Assassinated four months ago, at the start of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, his body lay in state in Tehran until Monday. Authorities expected 20 million people to participate in this national mourning. A video by Marie-Ève ​​Bédard, Emilio Avalos, Olivier Bolduc-Coutu, and Guillaume Lepage."

We Had a Front-Row Seat to the Funeral of Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Iran

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=rvtos7hsXZo

[bojancan]

Courtney Bonneau is reporting on intensifying IDF strikes in Lebanon. Ana Kasparian discusses on The Young Turks.


July, 06


Frontline Reporter Details The WAR CRIMES Israel Is Carrying Out In Lebanon

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=QIzrftD54jA

=====

July, 06
The Young Turks
6.67M subscribers

Trump's War Against The Iranian Regime Just BLEW UP In His Face

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=bM0chzq37lE

[rgray222]

Did you wonder why officials from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman attended Khamenei's funeral, even though Iran attacked their countries and they are ideologically deeply opposed to each other?

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=XS6uhrJR0vU

[Ravenlocke]

Arya Yadeghaar (Backup)

Germany detained & refused people to fly to Iran

The Committee Until Victory socialist group were denied travel to Iran to attend the funeral ceremony for martyr Imam Khamenei.

They were illegally detained by German police after passport control at Köln airport.

https://x.com/AryJeayBackup/status/2074507084276563993

[Ravenlocke]

MenchOsint

We have the names of three tankers hit by the IRGC in the past hours:

Qatari-owned LPG tanker AL REKAYYAT
Saudi-owned Oil Tanker WEDYAN
UAE-owned LPG Tanker AL MARYAH

Another one hit this afternoon remain to be identified, and the unreported one hit during July 5-6 night too.

https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2074527414453965243

[Ravenlocke]

The Cradle

Qatar holds Iran legally accountable for attack on tanker struck near Hormuz
——
The Qatari Foreign Ministry has officially condemned the targeting of the Qatari LNG tanker Al-Raqayat near the Strait of Hormuz, labeling the incident an "aggression against the security and safety of international navigation, and the security of global energy supplies."

Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari stated that the strike constitutes "a grave and explicit violation of the provisions of international law, especially the rules that guarantee freedom of maritime navigation and safe passage in international straits."

"We demand that the Islamic Republic of Iran immediately cease all practices that harm regional security or threaten the safety of international navigation, and stop endangering global energy supplies and the capabilities of regional countries for the sake of narrow calculations," Ansari said.

Qatar further emphasized that it holds the Iranian government "fully legally responsible for this aggression and any damages and repercussions that may result from it."

The attack, which left the tanker with significant engine room damage, occurred amid an already fragile regional environment, drawing sharp rebukes from Doha as it seeks to maintain its neutrality while hosting sensitive diplomatic negotiations.

https://x.com/TheCradleMedia/status/2074503239119020425

[Ravenlocke]

Drop Site

Transits through Hormuz are down, according to
@WindwardAI
’s latest update, which noted six vessels have rerouted from the southern Omani corridor to the central corridor after three ships were struck in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, including a highly flammable Qatar-owned LNG tanker.

One additional LNG tanker, Al Areesh, halted its transit and anchored instead of entering the strait.

https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2074525012019560664

[Ravenlocke]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
MenchOsint

We have the names of three tankers hit by the IRGC in the past hours:

Qatari-owned LPG tanker AL REKAYYAT
Saudi-owned Oil Tanker WEDYAN
UAE-owned LPG Tanker AL MARYAH

Another one hit this afternoon remain to be identified, and the unreported one hit during July 5-6 night too.

https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2074527414453965243

MenchOsint

Qatar condemns the targeting of its LNG Tanker "AL REKAYYAT" which had switched AIS off since 20 days ... and was 'supporting' the US-controlled corridor.

Saudi Arabia has not yet admitted that one of its Oil tankers was hit.

https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2074481786315280750