Yesterday a large ground operation by Ansar Allah routed the Saudi paid militia along the Red Sea. It gained control over a large area, the port of Mocha and over the islands in the Red Sea and within the Bab el-Mandab (marked in blue):
The Saudi controlled forces left their equipment behind and fled towards Taiz. That city is held by Emirati controlled militia which immediately blocked the entry for the Saudi controlled militia forces.
The blitz operation gave Ansar Allah full hands-on control of the main Red Sea entry without having to resort to the use of longer range missiles.
Though unconfirmed
it is believed that Ansar Allah has additionally fired missiles into Saudi Arabia which destroyed at least parts of its East-West pipeline. This all together leaves no export route for Saudi oil.
The UAE supported forces in Yemen are also in trouble. While they hold the city of Taiz their western resupply route from Mocha harbor is closed. Ansar Allah forces are also near to the road between Taiz and Aden. Taiz may soon be cut of and encircled.
The Saudi government is in a twist. Its proxy forces in Yemen have been routed and are in conflict, not only with Ansar Allah, but also with the ‘allied’ militia paid by the UAE. They have also lost most of their trucks and equipment.
A few weeks ago the Saudis had announced a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan. But that agreement is only includes the defense of Saudi Arabian territory, not offensive Saudi measures against its southern neighbors in Yemen. The Pakistanis have thus
declared that they see no reason to intervene in the conflict.
Muhammad bin Salman, the current ruler of Saudi Arabia has twice
asked the U.S. for help to bomb Ansar Allah in Yemen. The White House, burned by earlier losses in fights against Ansar Allah, has rejected any new active participation in that war. It has instead
sent an intelligence unit to help the Saudis find targets. But finding targets is not what matters.
Bombing Ansar Allah has been tried for years with little results. The Saudis do not have the manpower for an invasion. They will have to find a political solution for the conflict with their neighbor.
There are signs that yesterday’s surprise attack by Ansar Allah will
not be further expanded:
Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a Houthi political official, said in an interview that the group’s goal was to “fully restore Yemen’s sovereignty and independence” and to confront “the Saudi enemy,” rather than expand its territory.
“Other factions” in southern Yemen can “retain the areas under their control” until a Yemeni political process is held, Mr. al-Bukhaiti added.
Ansar Allah is allied with Iran. With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and Ansar Allah in now full control of the Bab el-Mandab oil export from the region has become extremely difficult.
The price of crude oil is above $100 per barrel. Ten year treasuries are near 5%. Inflation in the U.S. is stubborn at an official 3.4% while the price of diesel has breached the $6 per gallon mark.
All these numbers, and the upheaval in Yemen, are a consequence of Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran.